Today the TT specialists had their say and now it is time for the climbers to come to the fore. With the time trial now behind them, they know how much time they need to take back in the two mountaintop finishes that will bring the race to an exciting end and they will get the first chance tomorrow on the well-known climb to the ski resort of Verbier.

 

The course

We have reached the final weekend and unusually the climbers have not yet had a chance to make a real difference. However, they will have plenty of opportunities in the last two stages as the main challenges have been saved until the very end.

 

First up is the longest stage of the race which brings the riders over 219.1km from Delemont to a mountaintop finish in Verbier which has often hosted the Tour de Suisse. The make-up of the stage is a classic for the Swiss race as the first 190km are mostly flat and only have a few rolling hills that could potentially challenge the riders. It consists of a long southerly run through the valley in the Alps and includes a passage of Aigle where the UCI headquarters are located.

 

After 190km, the riders reach Martigny which was also visited by the Dauphiné peloton one week ago. While the peloton in the French race turned right to tackle a brand-new summit finish at Finhaut-Emoisson, the Tour de Suisse riders turn left to head into much more well-known terrain.

 

The road starts to rise slightly for 14.1km that have an average gradient of 2.7%. With 13.4km to go, the riders reach a small plateau where they contest a category 3 KOM sprint. A short descent leads to the bottom of the 8.2km HC climb to Verbier which has an average gradient of 7.8%. It’s a pretty regular affair with a rather constant gradient of around 8%. The riders reach the summit 1.8km from the finish where there’s a short descent before the final kilometre kick up at a gradient of 6.6%. The finale is pretty technical as there are two sharp turns inside the final 200m of the stage, with the final right-hand corner leading onto a very short finishing straight.

 

Verbier was famously included in the 2009 Tour de France where Alberto Contador made an early attack to put 43 seconds into Andy Schleck and 1.03 into Vincenzo Nibali. The stage will be remembered by Lance Armstrong as this is where he learnt that he wouldn't win the first Tour after his comeback. It last featured in the Tour de Suisse two years ago when Rui Costa laid the foundations for his overall win by taking the stage win. In the 2000s, Kim Kirchen, Pablo Lastras, Alexandre Moos and Pascal Hervé have all won stages in the famous ski resort.

 

The weather

The riders could not have wished better conditions for first big mountain battle as it will be a day with beautiful sunshine. The temperature at the finish in Verbier reach a maximum of 17 degrees, meaning that it will be a lot warmer in the valley and it could turn out to be a pretty hot day in the saddle. As we saw in the Criterium du Dauphiné, this will definitely have an impact on the race as different riders cope differently with the sudden change in weather conditions.

 

There will barely be any wind, with just a very light breeze coming from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind all day. On the final climb, it will be a mix between head- and tailwind as they go through the switchbacks but it will be headwind in the final kilometre until the riders make the final two turns very close to the line.

 

 

 

The favourites

With the time trial now out of their way, the climbers know how much time they need to take back on their main rivals – and especially Tony Martin who enjoys a pretty comfortable lead. However, the final two stages offer some tough terrain where the strongest climbers can make a difference and they need to make the most out of it.

 

It is very unusual for the Tour de Suisse to have its first summit finish at this late point in the race. Usually, the organizers have had a mountaintop finish already on the second day before a number of flatter stages have led to more mountains in the final weekend. This year the GC riders have not had a real chance to test themselves on a major climb yet which means that the hierarchy is pretty uncertain.

 

Until now we have only had four small chances to gauge their forms. The opening time trial had a short climb and the organizers were kind enough to take the time on all riders on that short ascent. However, there is a massive difference between a short, explosive effort in a prologue and a much harder climb at the end of 220km stage.

 

The second opportunity came at the Brünigpass in stage 2 where some of the GC riders took the opportunity to test each other a bit. Roman Kreuziger launched an attack and a 9-rider group briefly got clear. One day later they went up a short climb to the finish in Heiden but that effort was more suited to puncheurs than climbers. Finally, today’s time trial had a decent amount of climbing but the ascents are not really comparable to what’s on offer in tomorrow’s stage.

 

The uncertain hierarchy and the lack of an obvious favourite also mean that a breakaway is very unlikely to make it to the finish and this stage should be decided by the GC riders. A lot of riders will feel that they have a realistic chance of winning the stage and this means that we should several teams combine forces to bring back the early break. At the same time, these stages with a flat section and a steep climb to the finish are pretty easy to control. The teams can use their heavy guys for most of the day and will still have their climbers ready to kick into action on the finishing ascent. There are no bonus seconds on offer so in theory the GC riders could let a break stay away but a lot of riders will want to win the stage as well.

 

Everybody knows this and so we don’t expect a very hard fight in the early part of the stage. The break will probably be established pretty easily and the GC teams will make sure that it is not too big. If there are no dangerous riders in the move, Omega Pharma-Quick Step probably won’t be too bothered about it – Tony Martin won’t win the stage in any case – but teams like Belkin, IAM, FDJ, Tinkoff-Saxo and Lampre-Merida could all lend a hand to the chase, meaning that the break is doomed.

 

By the time the riders reach Martigny, the break is probably within sight and things should be back together for the final climb. The finale will be extremely hectic and fast as positioning is very important on a relatively short climb like the one to Verbier and the battle for position will be fierce. Right from the bottom we can expect one or more of the above-mentioned teams to pick up the pace. With Martin enjoying a comfortable lead, they all know that they need to make things as tough as possible and due to the pretty short length, it has to be done right from the beginning.

 

On the final part of the climb, it will all come down to a big battle between the GC riders but the time gaps are unlikely to be too big. The best climbers seem to be pretty evenly matched and it is hard to create massive differences on a climb that is not even 8km long. Even though Martin had expected to gain more time in today’s time trial – he admitted to being surprised by gaining a little less than 30 seconds on the road world champion – he still has a comfortable lead and the climbers know that they need to get rid of the German. Hence, they will probably attack from a bit further out in a quest to put the race leader under pressure.

 

For some reason, Rui Costa always hit peak condition for the Tour de Suisse and for some reason he always gets better as the race goes on. After the first few stages, we were close to ruling him out of the battle for the overall victory. He did a really poor first time trial and when the riders attacked on the climbs in stages 2 and 6, he didn’t appear to be too comfortable.

 

However, he proved that he is fully ready to win the race for a record third consecutive time by doing an amazing time trial. Last year he won the mountain time trial but this is definitely the best “normal” TT he hs ever done. For him to finish just 2 seconds behind a specialist like Tom Dumoulin is extremely impressive.

 

Furthermore, he also proved his excellent climbing legs when he set the second fastest time on the first climb. Only Martin was faster than the Portuguese and the race leader had probably gained most of his advantage in the first flat section. Costa has ridden himself into form and he has a very good chance in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Costa is no pure climber and struggles a bit on the really long climbs but this short, regular ascent suits him really well. He will be hard to drop on the ascent and he has a very fast uphill sprint if he arrives at the bottom of the final small ramp with a few rivals. Among the favourites only Bauke Mollema will have a chance to beat him in a sprint and as he will be very hard to drop, he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Last year Bauke Mollema won a very similar stage to Crans-Montana to set himself up for what was an outstanding summer which culminated with a 6th place in the Tour de France. He finished second in this race back then and only an outstanding mountain time trial by Rui Costa prevented him from winning the race overall.

 

This year Mollema seemed to be even stronger than he was 12 months ago. In the opening time trial, he was by far the fastest on the short climb and he seemed to be at ease when the attacks were launched on the Brünigpass one day later. In the uphill finish on stage 3 he finished fourth and those results come on the back of a pretty impressive showing in the Tour of Norway which he did after a period without any high-intensity training. However, he did a very poor time trial which is a bit strange as he was so strong in the first part of the race.

 

As an Ardennes specialist, Mollema excels on this kind of short climb and it is no coincidence that he prevailed in the very similar stage to Crans-Montana. Furthermore, he has a very fast sprint and will be hard to beat if it comes down to a sprint between a few riders on the final ramp to the finish. There is a chance that today’s poor performance was just the result of a bad day and Mollema himself doesn’t seem to be too disappointed. We wouldn’t be surprised if he bounces back with a stage win.

 

After his splendid showing in last year’s race, Mathias Frank is now a team leader and even though he was pretty anonymous in the first part, he is definitely in good condition and has been up there with the best whenever it mattered. Today he proved just how strong he is when he finished fifth in the time trial to again underline how much he has progressed in the discipline.

 

He has had a fantastic season so far, winning the queen stages of both the Criterium International and the Bayern Rundfahrt, proving that he has stepped up his level quite a lot. In the latter race, he even beat Pinot. In the Tour de Romandie, he was up there with the best on the climbs and showed that he can also mix it up at the WorldTour level. He is not as fast as Costa and Mollema but he has a pretty decent kick to the line. We wouldn’t be surprised if he rides away from his rivals on the steep slopes before the KOM sprint.

 

Thibaut Pinot is constantly improving and in last year’s Vuelta a Espana he proved that he is now very close to the best. On paper he is one of the very best climbers in this race and he seems to be riding well. He did a good prologue which didn’t suit him too much, and he seemed to be strong in both stages 2 and 3. Today he confirmed that he has progressed a lot in the time trials and he was one of the fastest on the first climb. Furthermore, he is pretty explosive and the short final climb should suit him well.

 

On the other hand, he is not very fast in a sprint and he needs to get rid of the likes of Mollema and Costa before the finish if he wants to take his first win of the year. We doubt that he is strong enough to do so but he should be up there with the best.

 

While riding in Astana colours, Roman Kreuziger could see his progress come to a pretty abrupt halt and he was clearly not the rider that had been described as the biggest stage racing talent in the world. Since joining Tinkoff-Saxo, however, he has improved a lot and last year he finished 5th in the Tour de France despite working in the service of Alberto Contador.

 

This year he seems to be even stronger and did some very impressive rides in both Tirreno-Adriatico and Liege-Bastogne-Liege earlier this year. In this race he seems to be at a solid level and he was the rider to animate things on the Brünigpass, putting in several attacks. In stage 3, he was in a very poor position when a split occurred in the finale but he proved his strength by bridging the gap in impressive fashion. Today, however, he put in a very poor time trial but that may not be truly indicative of his level as he has lost quite a bit of his previous TT prowess.

 

Kreuziger is not a very fast sprinter and he needs to drop most of his rivals before the top. He doesn’t seem to be in a condition to do so but as he is now a bit down on GC he could get a bit more freedom.

 

We are very curious to see what young climbing sensation Davide Formolo can do. The Italian has had a fantastic start to his professional career. Already in the early Italian one-day races he was one of the strongest climbers and after a brief break due to illness he returned to competition by riding really well in the Tour of Turkey. This race is his first at the WorldTour level but he has been really impressive. He did an excellent prologue which should suit him at all, and he finished with the best on stage 3 despite working for Sagan. Today he continued his great showing by doing a fantastic time trial. We are pretty convinced that he will be up there with the best and as he will not be heavily marked, he could escape in the finale.

 

For our jokers, we will look to Spaniard from MTN-Qhubeka. While a lot of riders are using this race as Tour de France preparation, it is a season highlight for Sergio Pardilla. The MTN-Qhubeka captain has prepared specifically for this race and he seems to be stronger than ever before. He did an outstanding prologue and was up there with the best when the attacking started on the Brünigpass one day later. He missed the small split in the finale of stage 3 but that explosive effort didn’t suit him at all. Today he did a fantastic time trial despite being slowed down by a technical problem. Like Formolo, the Spaniard will not be marked very heavily and this could allow him to escape in the finale.

 

Janier Acevedo has had a very slow start to his first season at WorldTour level and he has barely done any racing. In the Tour of California he was clearly not at his best level but since returning to Europe, he has apparently become a lot stronger. He has been climbing well in the first few stages and today he did a very good time trial. The Colombian won’t be too heavily marked and last year he proved that he has the aggressive nature that could allow him to win the stage.

 

Finally, Tony Martin deserves a mention. The race leader is definitely not going to win this stage but he has a very good chance of holding onto his jersey. This year he has been climbing better than he has been for some time and the stage suits him pretty well. It all boils down to one short effort in the end and being a TT specialist he knows how to put himself into the hurt zone for that short amount of time. He is unlikely to keep up with the best all the way to the top but we would expect him to limit his losses sufficiently to defend his overall lead.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Rui Costa

Other winner candidates: Bauke Mollema, Mathias Frank

Outsiders: Thibaut Pinot, Roman Kreuziger, Davide Formolo

Jokers: Sergio Pardilla, Janier Acevedo