Tony Martin stayed with his main rivals in today’s first mountaintop finish in the Tour de Suisse and now only needs to survive one more day to win the race overall. The final stage, however, is the hardest of the entire race and the German can expect a true war as his rivals will all be keen to exploit his main weakness: his team.

 

The course

This year the Tour de Suisse organizers have saved the best for the final stage which is another very tough stage in the mountains. At just 156.7km, it is a lot shorter than the previous one but unlike stage 8, it offers hard climbing almost all day.

 

The stage starts in Martigny at the bottom of yesterday's finishing climb and ends in Saas-Fee that hasn't hosted a stage finish since 2003. The first 29km consist of a flat run along the Rhone river until the riders reach Sion. Here they will do a right-hand turn to go up the category 1 Veysonnaz climb (10.8km, 6.8%) which is followed by a very short descent and a short flat section. It leads to the bottom of the category 2 St. Martin climb (10.1km, 4.6%) and then a technical descent brings the riders back to the Rhone valley.

 

The next 25km are again flat before the riders do another right-hand turn to go up a climb. This time it is the category 1 Eischoll (8.5km, 7.0%) which brings the riders onto another technical descent down to the valley. There is only a very short flat section before the road again ramps upwards. The HC climb is 20.1km long and has an average gradient of 5.4% and so the main challenge will be the length.

 

The climb can be split into three sections. The first 12km have a pretty regular second part with an average gradient over a few kilometres around 7%. The 12th kilometre is the hardest of the entire climb at 9.7% but leads to the second section which consists of 5 very easy kilometres of which one is even completely flat. The third and final section is harder as the 19th and 20th kilometre have gradients of 9.5% and 7.3% respectively. The top comes 1km from the finish and then it's a final 2.7% section to the line. The finale is mostly non-technical as the final 2km follow an almost straight road but inside the final 200m, the riders do two sharp turns in quick succession before getting onto the short finishing straight.

 

When the riders last did this finish in 2003, Francesco Cansagrande took a solo win 13 seconds ahead of Kim Kirchen but no less than 15 riders finished within 30 second of the Italian, proving the fact that the final climb is not too selective.

 

 

 

The weather

It should be another beautiful day in Switzerland for the final stage of the Tour de Suisse but this time there is a risk that an afternoon shower will destroy the party. When the riders take the start, they can expect bright sunshine but as they get closer to the finish, it should get significantly cloudier and there is a risk that they will need their rain jackets in the finale. The temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of 14 degrees.

 

Like today, there will barely be any wind as there will only be a very light breeze from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will first have a crosswind before turning into a cross-tailwind. There will be a tailwind on the first two climbs and a headwind on the descent from the final of those two first challenges. Then it is back into a cross-tailwind for the rest of the stage, including the climb to the finish.

 

The favourites

All week it has been evident that Tony Martin has not been climbing better since he won the 2011 Paris-Nice but many were surprised to see him keep up with his main rivals in today’s first big mountaintop finish. The German wisely decided to stay with his main rivals Rui Costa and Mathias Frank and even looked more comfortable than the world champion on the final ascent.

 

Going into the stage, Omega Pharma-Quick Step were keen to underline that they had not GC ambitions in the race and that it was all about stage wins for Cavendish in the sprint and Martin in the time trials. However, they have always had a secret plan to win the race overall with Martin and today the world time trial champion revealed that he preferred not to speak about his ambitions to take off the pressure. However, he knew that he was climbing excellently well as he has lost 2-3kg since April which paid off on today’s climbs.

 

Martin now finds himself in the pole position to win the race overall but nothing is decided yet. Even though Martin was strong in today’s stage, it was also evident that there were stronger climbers than him and tomorrow’s stage is a much different affair that is a lot more suitable for his rivals to put him under pressure.

 

While today’s stage was very easy to control as it all came down to the legs on the final climb, tomorrow’s stage is at the opposite site of the spectrum. With four big climbs, it is almost up or down all day and Martin can expect to come under attack much earlier.

 

Everybody knows that Martin has one major weakness: his team. Mark Cavendish and Mark Renshaw are among the first to get dropped and Martin Velits is in no great condition. Gert Steegmans is climbing pretty well but the big Belgian is certainly no climber. His strongest domestique is Matteo Trentin but the Italian will not be at Martin’s side when the peloton has been whittled down to 50 riders.

 

Just one week ago we saw what can happen to a race leader with a weak team when Andrew Talansky took the jersey off Alberto Contador’s shoulders on the final day of the race. A lot of teams have been inspired by that offensive strategy and we will be pretty surprised if teams like Lampre-Merida, IAM, Belkin and Tinkoff-Saxo don’t try to put Martin under pressure right from the first climb of the day.

 

At the same time, breakaways usually have a pretty good chance in this kind of stage with numerous climbs and this means that a lot of teams will head into the stage with a plan to attack. We can expect a true war right from the beginning and it is very unlikely that the break takes off before the riders get to the bottom of the first climb.

 

This is the worst possible scenario for Martin. As the race has not been very hard, a lot of riders are still pretty close to Martin on GC and he cannot respond to all attacks himself. Lampre-Merida have Rafael Valls and Mattia Cattaneo, Tinkoff-Saxo have Oliver Zaugg, Belkin have Laurens Ten Dam and Stef Clement and IAM have Marcel Wyss that are all within shouting distance of the overall lead. On a hard climb, the strong climbers usually just ride away from the peloton and Martin cannot respond to everything himself. He has to focus on his key rivals and there is a big chance that a big group with strong climbers get clear on the first ascent of the day.

 

If all the major teams are represented, Martin finds himself in an uncomfortable situation and as he is likely to be isolated, he has to count on other teams to bring it back or wait for his teammates to return. If the key teams all believe in their rider in the break, they may be content with the situation and it is not impossible that a surprise rider steals the win on the very last day of the race.

 

Furthermore, there is a chance that some of the GC favourites themselves will go on the attack early in the stage. Bauke Mollema and Roman Kreuziger have both lost a fair bit of time and they need to attack from afar to win the race. If it all comes down to the final climb, Martin is very likely to win the race overall. If they have a few riders in the break, they could try to bridge the gap and today they proved that they are climbing better than Martin. If that happens, Martin could suddenly find himself on his own in a group behind while riders like Mollema and Kreuziger are in the front group with teammates at their side.

 

There are a lot of potential scenarios for this stage and the race can still be won by a lot of different riders. This also makes the stage very difficult to predict. As we don’t expect any team just to ride tempo on the front in a quest to bring things back together for the favourites to decide it all on the final climb, we expect the winner to come out of some kind of breakaway – but it could still be one of the race favourites.

 

One rider that has shown exceptional condition and can do the stage only with the stage win on his mind, is Philip Deignan. The Irishman broke his collarbone early in the season and started to Giro d’Italia a bit short on form. He rode himself into condition and climbed exceptionally well towards the end of the race. To stay fresh for this race, he did very little training after the Giro but showed that he is still in great form in the opening prologue.

 

One day later he got close to a stage win when he was one of three riders to stay away to the finish but illness took him out of contention for the next few days. Since then he has recovered and he both did a good time trial and an excellent climb in today’s stage.

 

Sky have no one for the GC anymore and tomorrow they probably only have one plan: to put Deignan in the early break. Today he finished with the main GC riders after having bridged the gap just after the top pf the climb and with an early climb to make an attack, there is a big chance that he will be in the break. If a tactical battle for the GC evolves, he can set back and allow other riders to do the work. This will allow him to stay fresh for the finale and in that case he will be hard to beat. Deignan is our stage winner pick for tomorrow.

 

Bauke Mollema did a very bad time trial but bounced back with a very strong showing in today’s stage where Esteban Chaves was probably the only rider that was stronger than him. Afterwards, he explained that his training has been mostly focused on climbing as the TT comes at the end of the Tour de France where it will be mostly about recovery. Today’s performance proved what he had already showed on the first climbs of the race: that he is currently climbing really well.

 

Today should have boosted his confidence and we would expect him to try to put Martin under pressure by launching an attack from afar. We don’t think that Martin will be able to keep up with him and this could put him in a good position. Depending on the situation, he may be riding more for the GC than a stage win but he is a very good stage winner pick. The final climb is not very tough and only has a steep ramp near the end before it levels out in the finale. Mollema is a very fast sprinter and if he is there at the end, he will be hard to beat.

 

In the first stages Rui Costa didn’t look very strong on the climbs but he bounced back with a fantastic time trial. Today’s stage confirmed that his climbing legs are still lacking quite a bit of strength and if it comes down to a head-to-head battle between him and Martin, he is unlikely to win. Hence, his team will probably try to play it offensively and if so, they have a very good card to play.

 

Today Rafael Valls confirmed the impression he has given since the start of the race as he was up there with the very best riders. He is now in 14th overall, just 3.13 behind Martin, and so he can really put Martin under pressure. It would be a great scenario for Lampre-Merida to send Valls on the attacks and the terrain suits the climber perfectly. At the moment, he seems to be strong enough to finish it off.

 

Today Johan Esteban Chaves was the strongest climber and it is a pleasure to see him being back to his best after his horrific crash in the 2013 Trofeo Laigueglia that almost brought his career to an end. This is the first time that he is up there with the best in a WorldTour race and it remains to be seen how he recovers from such a hard effort as today’s. Today, however, he was the strongest rider and tomorrow he could be so again. If it comes down to a battle between the favourites he would again be a good stage winner pick as he has already lost a bit of time and won’t be as heavily marked. It may be a very good idea for him to attack from afar though and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him in an early break that makes it to the finish.

 

Another rider that looked really strong in today’s stage was Oliver Zaugg. The Swiss set Roman Kreuziger up for an attack and still had enough left in the tank to finish 20th on the stage. It would be a very good idea for Tinkoff-Saxo to send their Swiss climber up the road. He may have to sacrifice himself for his team captain in the tactical play but if he gets a chance to ride for himself, he will be a good winner pick. He has expressed confidence in his form after coming back from injury and today he proved that he is close to the level that allowed him to win the 2011 Il Lombardia.

 

Today Roman Kreuziger was one of the strongest riders and he should be so again tomorrow. The Czech can both wait for the favourites to decide the stage but we would expect him to try things from a bit further out. He is brutally strong but his main weakness is that he is not a very fast sprinter. It will be hard for him to drop a rider like Mollema on this kind of climb and if they are sprinting for the stage win, he will only have little chance of prevailing. There is a chance though that he will emerge as the strongest rider on the climb.

 

Finally, we will pick our jokers. Today Laurens Ten Dam split the peloton to pieces by taking a massive turn on the front and he is clearly getting close to his best. As Belkin probably want to put Martin under pressure, it would be a good idea to send their lanky Dutchman up the road as he is 15th on GC. His diesel engine is well-suited to this kind of repetitive climbing and as he is currently in good condition, he could be strong enough to finish it off.

 

Thibaut Pinot delivered a disappointing performance in today’s stage and instead his lieutenant Arnold Jeannesson emerged as the best FDJ rider. The latter may now have carte blanche to play his own card and that could give him an opportunity to go on the attack. He is 4 minutes down on GC and won’t be an immediate threat for the major teams. At the moment, he is riding really well and would be a good pick to win from a breakaway.

 

Today Louis Meintjes attacked early on the final climb but despite using a lot of energy, he was still strong enough to take 19th. In the Giro del Trentino earlier this year, he climbed exceptionally well and he seems to be close to that same level. He has the right aggressive spirit and he will probably try to attack from afar. If he makes it into the break, there is a big chance that he will be the strongest rider.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Philip Deignan

Other winner candidates: Bauke Mollema, Rafael Valls

Outsiders: Johan Esteban Chaves, Oliver Zaugg, Roman Kreuziger

Jokers: Laurens Ten Dam, Arnold Jeannesson, Louis Meintjes