The days when the opening months of the cycling season can be used to ease into the races, are long gone and nowadays the first WorldTour points are on offer right from the beginning. For most riders, the Tour Down Under is the first competitive action of the year but it presents a great opportunity to open the points account already from the take-off. This turns the race into a hotly contested affair and with the days when the race was a sprinters' affair now belonging to the past, the overall classification shapes up to be decided in an exciting battle between puncheurs, climbers and classics specialists.

                                                                              

2015 has barely begun but the times when January is a month for training and preparation at team training camps are now history. Nowadays, the best professional cyclists start racing earlier than they did in the past when they benefit from the globalization of the sport to get some early-season racing kilometres under their belt under distant and warmer skies.

 

This development has prompted the creation of the new opening week of the professional cycling season which takes place more than a month before the traditional Belgian opening weekend and a month and a half before the first major European race, Paris-Nice. Although the Tour Down Under and the Tour de San Luis are held on separate continents, they have combined forces to kick off the racing season by splitting the professional peloton into two halves, with most of the sprinters and classics specialists heading to Australia and the stage racers travelling to Argentina.

 

Following on the heels of the national championships in New Zealand and Australia, the two races signal the real kick off of the season for most of the WorldTour teams. It is testament to the globalized cycling that the major stars now travel all over the world to Oceania and South America to start their season in sunny conditions.

 

It may be early in the year but there is no time to gradually find the racing legs. Nowadays, teams are involved in a fierce battle for UCI points - which will be no less fierce due to the uncertainty that follows from the restructuring of the international calendar that is set to be introduced in 2017 - and as a WorldTour event, the Tour Down Under has a big amount on offer. Some riders may be travelling to Australia mostly for training but all teams will take the race very seriously and have made sure that they have a few riders that are able to fight for the wins in both the overall and on select stages.

 

With cycling's major stars now going head-to-head in the event, the race has come a long way since its beginning in 1999. Originally created to promote South Australia as a tourist destination, the inaugural edition had attracted a few European teams but the first races were mostly dominated by Australians. Local hero Stuart O'Grady was the first rider to win the event, with O'Grady again, Michael Rogers and Patrick Jonker making sure that the race had home-grown winners four times during the first six years.

 

However, the race gradually became more and more international and it became increasingly difficult for the local riders to make their mark on the race. When the ProTour was introduced in 2005, race director Mike Turtur started a dedicated lobbying work to make the race become the first non-European event to be added to the finest calendar. With the UCI being keen to internationalize their finest race series, the race passed several historic European races to be added to the ProTour in 2008.

 

Although it guaranteed the presence of all ProTour teams and gave the starting field a major boost of international stars, the new status also posed a new difficulty. Until then, the Willunga Hill with its subsequent finish in the city of Willunga and the general rolling terrain had been enough to split the field and create some unpredictable races - very often a surprise breakaway distanced the peloton significantly in one of the opening stages - but the race was now too easy to control for cycling's major powerhouses. The race turned into a rather predictable sprinter affair, with Andre Greipel and Allan Davis winning the 2008 and 2009 editions of the event.

 

To test the world stars a bit more, the organizers decided to add an extra passage of Willunga Hill to the queen stage of the race. That gave way to a very exciting race, featuring climbing stars like newly crowned world champion Cadel Evans, Alejandro Valverde, Luis Leon Sanchez and neo-professional Peter Sagan but it was not enough to prevent Greipel from winning the race for a second time courtesy of bonus seconds. The next edition was the first to be won by a non-sprinter but Cameron Meyer's surprise victory was more a result of the peloton's underestimation of a breakaway featuring Meyer, Thomas De Gendt and Laurens Ten Dam than it was testament to the toughness of the course.

 

For the 2012 edition, the organizers realized that something had to be done to turn the race away from its many sprint finishes. For the first time ever, the race featured a summit finish on the Willunga Hill and this tipped the balance into the hands of the puncheurs. Simon Gerrans took the win after a thrilling battle with Alejandro Valverde while the sprinters now had to be content with the fight for stage wins. In 2013, the race was made even tougher with the inclusion of a stage that passed the steep Corkscrew climb close to the finish, making for a balanced race with three traditional sprint stages and two stages for the climbers and the uphill sprint into Stirling. The formula was repeated in 2014 when the Corkscrew and Willunga climbs set the scene for an exciting battle between the major Australian climbing stars.

 

That evolution has changed the dynamics of the race. While in the past there was little reason to field anything else than a dedicated sprint team, the field now boasts a solid mix of puncheurs and sprinters. Although the race is still not one for the pure climbers and grand tour specialists, the field is now much more diverse than it has been in the past and most teams make sure to have a solid pair of climbing legs on their roster.

 

With the Tour de San Luis offering an alternative way to prepare the new season, the two races are involved in a constant battle to attract the strongest fields. As the Argentinean race offers some kind of a mini grand tour with a time trial and real mountain stages, the pair have shared the stars between them, with most stage racers heading to Argentina and most sprinters and classics riders travelling to Australia. The only real stage race specialists to be present in Australia are local stars like Cadel Evans and Richie Porte, Canadian Ryder Hesjedal, Italian Domenico Pozzovivo and Portuguese Tiago Machado but with riders like Marcel Kittel, Giacomo Nizzolo, Juan Jose Lobato, Heinrich Haussler, Mark Renshaw, Barry Markus, Roberto Ferrari and Niccolo Bonifazio as the main sprinters, the Tour Down Under can boast a formidable line-up of fast finishers. One sprinter will be missing though as André Greipel – who has the record of most stage wins – will skip the race for the first time since 2007.

 

Due to its lower status, the Tour de San Luis does, however, offer less stress and media coverage and this has prompted some sprinters like Mark Cavendish and Sacha Modolo to stay away from the Australian race that has the focus from the entire cycling world in the month of January. On the other hand, the greater prestige means that the Tour Down Under is a hotly contested international affair while the overall classification in San Luis is often dominated by local riders.

 

Last year the race turned into an Australian battle but with three of the best riders in the world going head to head, it took nothing from the excitement that it was a mostly local affair. While André Greipel took his usual pair of sprint wins, Cadel Evans dealt fellow Australians Simon Gerrans and Richie Porte a big blow when he distanced everybody on the Corkscrew climb to take the leader’s jersey. Gerrans and Porte bided their time in the subsequent stage and waited until the queen stage to the top of Willunga Hill to strike back. While Porte took an impressive solo win – his only victory in 2014 season – Gerrans who had already beaten Greipel in a sprint on stage one, gained enough time to relegate Evans into second and win the race for the third time in his career. Diego Ulissi who had won the uphill sprint into Stirling, managed to prevent Porte from making it an all-Australian podium. Gerrans had planned to defend his title but after he broke his collarbone in December, Orica-GreenEDGE have had to change strategy for the race and will now focus on stage wins. Ulissi is of course absent due to his doping case but Evans and Porte will be back as two of the big favourites, with the former being keen to add the Tour Down Under to his palmares in what will be the final WorldTour race in his long and glorious career.

 

The course

Since joining the ProTour in 2008, the Tour Down Under has gradually turned away from being a sprinters affair to become a much more diverse race. In 2013, the race had its hardest course yet, with only half of the stages being dedicated to the fast finishers, and the organizers were so pleased with the lay-out of the most recent edition that they followed a similar pattern in the design of the 2014 course. In fact, only two stages were designed for the pure sprinters as the opening stage included a difficult close to the finish put the sprinters on the back foot.

 

Just as one had reached the conclusion that the organizers had found a pretty fixed format for their race, they have again given the course a bit of an overhaul. They have found no reason to change the traditional stages to Stirling and the top of Willunga Hill which will both again have a major impact on the final result of the race, but the third stage that helped shape the GC in 2014 won’t be repeated. The Corkscrew climb was the scene for some very exciting racing in both 2013 and 2014 but this year the riders won’t be tested on its steep slopes. That doesn’t mean that there will be more opportunities for the sprinters though as the organizers have introduced a new uphill finish in Paracombe on stage 3, meaning half of the stages will again be for the puncheurs and the climbers. The final three stages seem to be destined to end in a bunch sprint, meaning that the fast riders may find the new course a bit more to their liking than the very difficult 2014 route.

 

The organizers are aware that their race is an early-season affair and is held far away from Europe and this plays a huge role in the design of the course. While the logistical problems of transporting time trial equipment all the way to Australia mean that the race has never included a race against the clock, the early time of the year means that the race cannot be too hard. Hence, there are no major climbs in the race and the stages all have rather short distances. At the same time, the race offers perfect conditions for the riders who are able to stay at the same hotel in Adelaide during the race, with all stages taking place close to the major city of the region. However, the heat has often been extreme at this time of the year, making for some very hard racing in Southern Australia.

 

Tomorrow the riders will have a chance to test their legs in the traditional warm-up criterium, People's Choice Classic. Originally, the race on the fast circuit in Adelaide was a part of the race but since 2006, the race has been held as a non-UCI race with the same field as the Tour Down Under. This offers the riders the chance to get their legs up to racing speed before things kick off in earnest and allows the public an opportunity to get a presentation of the field.

 

Stage 1

The race has traditionally kicked off with a stage for the sprinters (usually won by Andre Greipel) but last year the organizers changed the script as they opened their event with a very tough stage that invluded the steep Mengler’s Hill just 11.7km from the finish, meaning that most of the fast finishers were left behind before the sprint.

 

This year the fast finishers will be pleased to learn that they will get a chance to take the first ochre leader’s jersey in the race as the first stage seems to be destined to end in a bunch sprint. The short 132.6km stage goes from Angaston to Campbelltown and is a mostly flat affair, with only a few rolling climbs along the way. From the start, the riders do two laps of a rolling 32km circuit on the northern outskirts of Tanunda before they head in a southwesterly direction towards the finish in Campbelltown. The only real challenge is Checker’s Hill which comes 28.5km from the finish. It is a short, steep 600m climb with an average gradient of 14.2% and it may be used to put some of the sprinters under pressure. As the climb is short and the final part of the stage is mostly downhill, it is unlikely to do anything to prevent a bunch sprint though and will mainly serve as the place to decide the first holder of the KOM jersey.

 

The finale is completely non-technical as the riders travel along a straight row for the final few kilometres. It is almost completely flat but the finishing straight is very slightly uphill. In general, the scene is set for a big battle between the fast finishers and it will be a surprise if the first leader of the race is not one of the fastest riders in the race.

 

Campbelltown has only hosted the finish of a stage once but in 2014 the stage had a completely different nature. Back then, the riders went up the Corkscrew climb just a few kilometres before the finish and it was Cadel Evans who distanced everybody else to become the first rider to win in the city on the northeastern outskirts of Adelaide.

 

 

 

 

Stage 2

The pure sprinters will step out of the spotlight after the opening day as the second stage is a tough Tour Down Under classic. The uphill sprint in Stirling has become a tradition of the Australian race, with the finish featuring in all editions since its debut in 2009. While the stage usually doesn't decide the GC, it is a tricky one where potential winners can target bonus seconds and where you can easily lose a few seconds in the hectic finale.

 

The stage has traditionally started in Unley just south of Adelaide and after a one-year absence, that city will again be back as the starting point for the tough stage. The distance between the start and finish is very short but to reach the total distance of 150.5km – the longest stage ever to finish in Stirling – the riders will zigzag their way through the area for a little while. Right from the beginning, it is uphill as the riders will climb slightly for almost 20km and at the 29.8km mark, they will be tested on the only categorized climb of the day, Basket Range. From there they head south along flat roads to the city of Hahndorf – which has often hosted a stage finish – where they do a lap of a flat circuit on the eastern outskirts of the city.

 

From there they head to the famed 21,3km circuit around Stirling which they hit with around 50km to go and which consists of the long uphill drag to the finish and a second, undulating, mostly downhill section. This is where the action will pan out as the rising section to the finish is too tough for a lot of riders – especially if some of the climbing teams decide to up the pace. The finishing straight is non-technical with only a few sweeping bends inside the final kilometre.

 

In the past, the stage has been made tougher by adding more and more laps around the circuit, culminating in 2013 when the riders did 5 full laps. After heading up the uphill finishing straight for the first time, the riders will only have to do two full laps in this year's edition, making for an easier version of the stage. A similar format was used in 2014. The stage usually comes down to a battle between the hardest sprinters and the puncheurs but the easier edition of the stage could favour the faster guys.

 

In 2009 Allan Davis beat Graeme Brown in the uphill sprint while Manuel Cardoso held off Alejandro Valverde and Cadel Evans with a long sprint in 2010. In 2011, Michael Matthews proved that he is perfectly suited to this finish when he triumphed ahead of Andre Greipel and Matthews Goss and one year later he again won the sprint - albeit only for second as William Clarke held off the field in a long solo move. In 2013  Tom-Jelte Slagter laid the foundations for his overall win by holding off Goss and Philippe Gilbert while Diego Ulissi timed his move to perfection to win last year’s stage ahead of Simon Gerrans and Cadel Evans.

 

 

 

 

Stage 3

Like last year the riders will have to wait until the third day to really make their mark and this year they will have a better chance to make a difference. While last year’s stage with the Corkscrew Climb gave them a solid chance to distance their rivals, the flat run-in to the finish allowed for some regrouping to take place. This year there will be an extra summit finish as the organizers head into untested territory for a brand new finale on the category 2 Torrens Hill Road in Paracombe.

 

At 143.2km, it is another pretty short stage and again the distance from the start in Norwood just east of Adelaide and the finish in Paracombe is pretty short. To build the distance, the riders will again have to zigzag their way through the area in the first part of the stage. As they head east, they will go up a gradual climb for the first 10km but from there, the terrain is very flat for almost the entire stage, with no categorized climbs and only a few rolling hills before the finale. After 50km, the riders will reach the city of Lobetal from where they will do two laps of 25.7km circuit. From there, they will head almost straight to the finish in Paracombe.

 

While the first part of the stage was easy, the finale will be very difficult. The roads are slightly descending for more than 10km, meaning that the riders will be riding very fast by the time they hit Torrens Hill Road. The final climb is just 1.2km long but with an average gradient of 9%, it is certainly tough enough to make a difference. The climb follows a long, straight road and there are no major technical issues. The length means that it is a great opportunity for the punchy climbers and we may well see some of the riders that battle it out in the Ardennes classics use their explosiveness to make a difference. The stage is likely to come down to a battle on the final climb and it will give a first clear indication of who’s going to win the 2015 Tour Down Under.

 

 

 

 

Stage 4

For the pure sprinters, the first part of the 2015 Tour Down Under was a tough one but they can expect to be back in the spotlight on the fourth day. As it is often the case, the fourth stage will see the riders head down to the Flerieu Peninsula just south of Adelaide where the sprinters have often had a chance to shine and it seems that this year will be no different.

 

The stage will bring the riders over 144.5km from Glenelg to Mount Barker and the first part consists of a flat run along the coast as the riders travel in a southerly direction. At the 44.2km mark, the riders will reach the summit of the only categorized climb of the day, Sellicks Hill, which is a long, gradual ascent.

 

From there, they head inland along slightly rolling hills until they reach Strathalbyn. From there, they go up a long, uncategorized rise to the second intermediate sprint in Macclesfield. The final 27.4km consist of a zigzag run to the finish in Mount Barker and apart from a few non-categorized climbs, there will be no major challenges. The final 3km are almost completely flat and the line comes at the end of a long, straight road. This is the perfect scene for the sprinters who are looking forward to a big bunch kick at the end of the day.

 

The only thing that can really prevent a bunch sprint is the wind in the sea region. Very often there has been talk about the wind in stages on the Flerieu Peninsula but it has rarely had much of an impact. Last year, however, the peloton split in the similar stage and several teams are likely to try a similar move in 2015. This year they won’t be going far down the peninsula though and they will only be riding close to the sea in the first part of the stage. This may make it harder to make a difference before the riders reach Mount Barker which has never hosted a stage finish before.

 

 

 

 

Stage 5

As usual, Saturday is the day of the queen stage, with the general classification battle coming down to the famed Willunga Hill. While the climb has featured on the route every year since 2002, the organizers decided to add an extra passage of its steep slopes in 2010, and in 2012 the stage finish was even moved to the top of the climb. This will again be the case for this year's queen stage which is completely identical to the one that decided the past three editions of the race.

 

The 151.5km stage starts in McLaren Vale and from there, the riders start a 39.7km lap that brings them to the coast and back to the starting city. The circuit will be tackled three times and the riders will even start a fourth lap. Passing through the city of Willunga, the peloton will, however, turn left and head up the famed climb for the first time. After the KOM sprint, they stay at a plateau for around 10km before tackling the fast descent back onto the original circuit. From there, they head back to Willunga to start the second and final ascent of the climb, with the final circuit having a length of 22.4km.

 

The category 1 climb is 3.0km long and has an average gradient of 7.5%. It is hardest at the bottom, with the gradient staying between 7.9% and 9.1% for the first 1,3km. From then, the gradient drops a bit and in the final 1.2km, it stays between 5.5% and 6.6%.

 

The first part of the stage is usually not too exciting but sometimes the wind has played a role. The favourites usually keep their powder dry for the final sprint up the climb but the final 30km have often been very aggressive, with several attacks being launched during the first passage. However, the teams of the favourites have always managed to bring things back together for a final sprint on the  previous occasions, with Alejandro Valverde narrowly edging out Simon Gerrans in 2012, the Australian getting his revenge by beating Tom-Jelte Slagter one year later and Richie Porte dropping everybody to win last year’s stage. The uphill sprint suits the true puncheurs and Ardennes specialists more than the climbers and the gaps are never very big.

 

Last year 23 riders finished within a minute of the winner and this means that bonus seconds on both this and the previous stages can come into play. There is, however, no doubt that the Willunga stage will the single most decisive of the entire race and you won't win the Tour Down Under if you don't end up near the front on this stage.

 

 

 

 

Stage 6

The end of the race has always been inspired by the Tour de France, with the final stage being a criterium held in downtown Adelaide. After several years with the same circui, however, it was time for a change last year when the organizers introduced a new 4.75km route. While the old course had a (very) small climb that offered the chance to hand out a few more KOM points before the end of the race, the new circuit was completely flat and was pretty technical.

 

This year the organizers have again decided to reshape the final stage as they have introduced a new 4.5km circuit. Unlike last year’s course, it is pretty non-technical as the riders go down a long, straight road before they turn around and hit the area around the Adelaide Golf Club. Here they go up the very small climb of Montefiore Hill but it will do nothing to split the field. On the 10th and 15th lap, however, there will be KOM points on offer. After a lap of a small circuit in the park, the riders reach the finishing straight which is likely to be the scene of an excellent bunch sprint. The riders will do 20 laps for a total distance of 90km and there will be bonus seconds on offer in the intermediate sprints at the end of the 8th and 12th laps.

 

The sprinters will be keen to exploit this opportunity and so nothing will prevent a big bunch sprint to end the stage. However, the GC has often been very close going into the final stage and this means that bonus seconds could come into play. While the overall contenders are unlikely to have their say in the final sprint, the two intermediate sprints could play a crucial role in the battle for the win. Since the inclusion in the WorldTour, Francesco Chicchi, Chris Sutton and Ben Swift have all won the sprint but the dominant figure has been Andre Greipel who won the stage in 2008, 2012, 2013 and 2014. It won’t be four in a row though as the German is absent from this year’s race, meaning that a new king of Adelaide will be crowned the day before Australia Day.

 

The favourites

Early-season races are generally a rather unpredictable affair. With only a few national championships races to gauge the conditions of the riders, nobody - not even the riders themselves - have a real idea about how everyone is going. At the same time, none of the stars can allow themselves to be in top condition at this time of the year which makes races in January much more open to surprises than the major races later in the season. While Tom-Jelte Slagter has long been known as a good puncheur, few pundits had written him down as a genuine winner candidate two years ago and for anyone who has trained well over the winter, early-season races is a good opportunity to achieve some great results.

 

On the other hand, last year’s edition was a lot more controlled and easier to predict. A number of the best Australians had all red-circled the race as an early target and had made it clear that they have travelled to Adelaide to win the event. As expected, Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans and Richie Porte were a class above most of their European rivals and this year the race is again a genuine goal for Evans and Porte who have both shown great conditions. Gerrans had similar plans but a broken collarbone has taken the defending champion out of contention. With a number of genuine winner contenders all targeting the overall, a surprise is less probable and the race shapes up to be a battle between some of the best local riders, with a number of foreigners looking to upset the home heroes.

 

The days when a sprinter can realistically hope to win the Tour Down Under are long gone and the race is likely to be won by a rider who excels on short, steep climbs and has a good punch on uphill slopes, with a decent sprint being no disadvantage either. The single most decisive stage is certainly the summit finish on Willunga which suits the Ardennes specialists, but the new finish in Paracombe will have a big impact too. That finale is another one perfectly suited to the puncheurs and with no time trial either, this is a race for the riders that excel in the Ardennes terrain. A strong team could be needed for stage 4’s potentially windy conditions while the expected bunch sprints in stages 1 and 6 should have little impact. The uphill finish may offer an extra opportunity for the puncheurs to shave a few seconds off their overall time.

 

At this time of the season, form and motivation play a crucial role and this clearly favours the local riders. One rider seems to be riding slightly better than everyone else at the moment. Richie Porte may have had a disastrous 2014 season but his travails could all be written down to health issues. In the few races where he was firing on all cylinders, he proved what he had already indicated in 2013: that he is now one of the very best climbers in the world. He won the queen stage to Willuga Hill in the Tour Down Under and rode strongly in Europe until he was struck by illness during Tirreno-Adriatico. It took a long time for him to recover but he climbed very well in the Criterium du Dauphiné and more notably in the Tour de France until disaster again struck. The results sheet may be pretty blank but no one can deny that Porte has established himself as one of the best stage race riders in the world.

 

Due to his early end to the 2014 season, Porte has had a long time to recover and build his form for the new season. In November, he claimed to be seven kilograms lighter than he was at this time of the year 12 months ago and he claimed to be riding really well. He proved those words to be true when he took a dominant victory in the Australian time trial championships, doing his best TT since the 2013 Tour de France and beating an in-form Rohan Dennis who has established himself as one of the very best time triallists in the world.

 

That win was obtained on a very hilly course where he made use of his great climbing skills to make the difference. He will again need those climbing skills if he wants to make of for last year’s disappointment in the Tour Down Under where he narrowly missed the podium after a poor performance on the Corkscrew Climb. He is raring to go and has made it clear that he is extremely motivated for his big home race.

 

While no one can question Porte’s form and motivation, there is one main reason to be concerned on behalf of the Sky captain. Porte is a great climber but he is not very explosive and in general, the course doesn’t suit him very well as the final climb in Paracombe and Willunga Hill are way too explosive for him. Porte has never really excelled in the classics and punchy races and if everybody had been at 100%, he would probably never have been in contention for the win in Adelaide. At this time of the year, however, it is mostly about condition and this makes Porte our favourite to win the race. Last year he won the stage to Willunga and this year he is riding a lot stronger. If he can repeat last year’s performance in the queen stage, there is a big chance that he will win the first WorldTour race of the season.

 

Porte’s biggest rival is likely to be one of the contenders from last year’s race, Cadel Evans. For last year’s runner-up, the Tour Down Under is the final big race of his career and this gives him a big advantage. Evans is the only rider in the field who won’t use the race as preparation and needs to hold something back for later in the season. The BMC leader has prepared meticulously for the race and will give everything to win the final stage race of his career.

 

However, Evans’ condition is still a bit uncertain. Unlike last year, he was unable to put in strong showing in the Australian road race championships. A strong breakaway stayed away and the race favourites were all caught out by a combination of race tactics and a strong headwind on the main climb. This means that Evans goes into the race without having shown any kind of form. Furthermore, he still needs to show that he can reach the level he had 12 months ago. Last year he rode strongly in the spring but he failed to hit peak condition in the autumn. At 37 years of age, Evans may no longer be able to win a WorldTour race and this makes his performance a bit more doubtful.

 

On the other hand, the course suits him pretty well. He may be a former grand tour winner but he is actually pretty explosive too. It is no wonder that he has won a Tour de France stage on the Mur de Bretagne, taken the win in the Fleche Wallonne classic and sprinted to several good results from smaller groups. The two uphill finishes suit him really well and he may even be able to score a few bonus seconds in Stirling as he has done in the past. One thing is guaranteed: Evans will be the most motivated rider in the peloton and he will do his utmost to get a fairytale ending to his career.

 

When it comes to the European riders, it is a bit more of a lottery to pick the race favourites. On paper, the race suits Tom Dumoulin really well and it would be no surprise to see the versatile Dutchman be in contention for the overall win. He may be mostly known as a time trial specialist but he is much more than that. He has a pretty fast sprint, climbs really well and is actually pretty explosive on short, steep climbs. It is no coincidence that he has finished on the podium of the Eneco Tour twice in a row and that race is mainly decided on short, steep climbs like the one in South Australia. Last year he was arguably the strongest rider in the Dutch-Belgian race and he went on to use his explosive classics skills to finish second in the GP de Quebec.

 

Giant-Alpecin also have Marcel Kittel on the roster but the German team have made it clear that their main goal is the overall win with Dumoulin or Simon Geschke. This indicates that Dumoulin has trained well over the winter which is extremely important in the Tour Down Under. Of course his condition is very uncertain but if he is riding at a decent level, he should be in contention for the overall victory.

 

One rider that has traditionally started his season very strongly is Luis Leon Sanchez. In the past, the Spaniard was usually one of the best riders in February and March and it is certainly no coincidence that he is a past Tour Down Under winner, winner of the Willunga queen stage and winner of Paris-Nice as well as several stages in the French race. In the last few years, he has been unable to show those skills as he deliberately held something back in the early part of the season or was put on the sidelines by Belkin but last year he came out with all guns blazing in his only season at Caja Rural.

 

Now Sanchez has joined Astana and for most of the year, he will be riding as a domestique. In Australia, however, he will be the leader of a strong team and he will be eager to make a mark right from the beginning. His 2014 season was hampered by illness and he never found his best legs but he still managed to win the mountains jersey in the Vuelta a Espana. He still hasn’t shown that he can get back to his former level but in the part of the season, it may be enough for him to hit his usual good early-season condition. As an explosive rider with a fast sprint, he is really suited to this race and even though there are certainly stronger climbers than him, he should be in contention.

 

Another European who has traditionally started his seasons very strongly, is Tiago Machado. The Portuguese first made the world aware of his talents when he battled with Alberto Contador on the Alto do Malhao in the Volta ao Algarve and that performance was the first in a series of strong season starts. In the final time at the Radioshack team, he had a hard time but last year he rediscovered his best legs and had one of the best seasons of his career, with the overall victory in the Tour de Slovenie and great performances in the Tour de France, Criterium International and Giro del Trentino as his main highlights.

 

Machado has now signed a contract with Katusha and he is the designated leader of the Russian team for the Tour Down Under. In 2012, he finished on the podium in the Australian race and he has done nothing to hide that he aims at a very strong showing in 2015. Unfortunately, Machado is not very explosive and in fact, this race doesn’t suit him very well. It will be hard for him to get rid of the likes of Evans and Dumoulin on short, explosive climbs but as we expect him to be in very good condition, he should definitely be a contender.

 

Another strong local rider is Michael Rogers who is the clear leader of the Tinkoff-Saxo team. When he last did the race in 2012, he finished fourth overall and he will be eager to improve on that performance. The Russian team has made it clear that they target a top 5 with their local hero and this suggests that Rogers is ready to go. In 2014, he had one of his best seasons ever and nothing suggests that he is slowing down.

 

Rogers is actually pretty fast and the course in Adelaide suits him pretty well. The main question mark is related to his form. He didn’t shine in the national time trial championships but that may not be too bad of a signal as he is no longer the time triallist he once was. He was set back by a mechanical in the road race and so no one really knows how he is going. However, he is clearly very motivated for the race and he is unlikely to finish outside the top 10.

 

One of the best climbers in the race is Domenico Pozzovivo but no one really knows how the Italian is going. Due to a horrific training crash, he missed most of the autumn season and only returned to the peloton in the final races of the year, finishing way off the pace. Hence, it is no surprise that he has opted for an early start and due to his limited amount of racing in 2014, there is a chance that he has been training really well during the winter.

 

Pozzovivo is a pure climber who is better suited to the high mountains but don’t be fooled by his tiny stature. In fact, he is pretty explosive too and he has always been a strong contender in the hilly Italian one-day races. Those skills will come in handy in Australia. If he is at a decent level, he should be with the best on the climbs and then it would be a wise decision to keep an eye on the Ag2r leader.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE were hit by a major setback when a broken collarbone took defending champion Simon Gerrans out of contention. Instead, the home team has had to change strategy and their main focus is now a stage win. However, they may not be completely out of the battle for the overall victory and with Simon Clarke and Daryl Impey, they have two solid cards to play.

 

Their best option is definitely Clarke who is very well-suited to the short, explosive climbs in his home country. The Australian proved his good condition when he finished 10th in the road race nationals and he will be very eager to make use of a rare chance to lead his team. When he finished 7th in the 2013 Worlds road race, he proved that he can be up there with the best in this terrain and even though he has been unable to repeat that kind of performance since, we know that he has it in his legs. Compared to most of his rivals, he will be very motivated and in good condition and this should make him a contender for the race.

 

On paper, Impey has been given the leadership role but we doubt that the South African will be able to shine on this kind of course. Impey is certainly a solid climber but it will be very hard for him to go up against the likes of Evans and Porte in the two summit finishes. Impey’s main asset is his fast sprint and the fact that he will be backed by a very strong team. To win the race, he needs to score bonus seconds in the sprint stages and with such a strong line-up, it will be a difficult task. If he accomplishes that mission, however, he should be in contention for the podium.

 

Movistar have always performed strongly in the Tour Down Under. After Alejandro Valverde was close to the win in 2012, Javier Moreno was the leader in 2013 and 2014. Now the captaincy role will be shared by Jose Herrada, Gorka Izagirre and Eros Capecchi who are all very good climbers. On paper, the race is best suited to Capecchi but the Italian has not been riding strongly in the first part of the year for a couple of season. Instead, we will put our money on Herrada and Izagirre to shine.

 

On paper, Herrada is a great climber and if he is close to his best form, he will be a clear contender. Unfortunately, he is not very explosive and the race doesn’t really suit him too well. Furthermore, he doesn’t have a strong history of starting his seasons strongly. On the other hand, this is a rare chance to ride for himself and this should provide him with lots of motivation. Hence, it would be no surprise to see him put in a strong ride.

 

In 2013, Izagirre finished 7th in Australia and since then he has improved a lot. Unlike Herrada, he is pretty strong on shorter climbs and even though he may not have the explosiveness to match the best in this terrain, he definitely has the skills to be a contender. He has usually started his seasons really well and he will be eager to capitalize on a rare chance to ride for himself as part of a very strong Movistar team.

 

2014 was probably the best year for Giampaolo Caruso who continued his steady improvement to nearly emerge as Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner. After an unfortunate accident in the Giro d’Italia, he bounced back with a great performance in the Vuelta and ended his season with a great win in Milan-Turin. His performances suggest that he is one of the best climbers in this race and even though the climbs are too explosive for him, he should be a contender if his condition is at a decent level.

 

However, Caruso has traditionally not been riding very well at the start of the year. His main objectives come later in the season when he will be a key support rider for Joaquim Rodriguez in the mountains and we don’t expect him to be firing on all cylinders. In fact, he is likely to ride in support of Machado but as he is one of the strongest climbers in the race, he definitely deserves to be mentioned.

 

Another rider that will be riding in support of a team captain is Geraint Thomas. The Welshman was very close to the overall victory two years ago and since then he has only become stronger. Last year he was close to the win in Paris-Nice which was held on a very similar course and it proved that he has the skills to win in this kind of terrain.

 

In theory, Thomas should be one of our main favourites for the race but he is likely to fully devote himself to a support role for Richie Porte. However, Thomas will be ready to strike if something happens to the team captain and if that’s the case, he has the skills to win the race.

 

Arnold Jeannesson has had to deal a lot with health issues and he has never really had the chance to prove the full extent of his potential. However, he has occasionally shown that he is a very great climber, most recently in last year’s Tour de France where he played a key role for Thibaut Pinot.

 

In this race, he is the leader of FDJ and as he is also a solid cyclo-cross rider, there is a chance that he will be in solid condition as he was two years ago when he rode really strongly in the Tour of Oman. On paper, Jeannesson is one of the best climbers in the race but the explosive nature of the course doesn’t suit him very well. However, if he is in good condition, he could be in podium contention in Australia.

 

***** Richie Porte

**** Cadel Evans, Tom Dumoulin

*** Luis Leon Sanchez, Tiago Machado, Michael Rogers, Domenico Pozzovivo

** Daryl Impey, Simon Clarke, Jose Herrada, Gorka Izagirre, Giampaolo Caruso, Geraint Thomas, Arnold Jeannesson

* Nathan Haas, Cameron Meyer, George Bennett, Rohan Dennis, Maxime Bouet, Pieter Serry, Simon Geschke, Kristijan Durasek, Robert Power, Eros Capecchi, Ruben Fernandez, Sergey Lagutin, Ryder Hesjedal, Moreno Moser, Davide Villella, Adam Hansen, Lawson Craddock, Dario Cataldo, Bert-Jan Lindeman, David de la Cruz, Jarlinson Pantano, Alex Howes