The waiting time is finally over! Tomorrow the Tour Down Under will kick off with a short, mostly flat stage around Adelaide and most expect the sprinters to come to the fore. However, Checker’s Hill comes just 28.5km from the finish and may do some damage for the pure sprinters as several teams will be keen to get rid of Marcel Kittel after his impressive showing in the People’s Choice Classic.

 

The course

The race has traditionally kicked off with a stage for the sprinters (usually won by Andre Greipel) but last year the organizers changed the script as they opened their event with a very tough stage that invluded the steep Mengler’s Hill just 11.7km from the finish, meaning that most of the fast finishers were left behind before the sprint.

 

This year the fast finishers will be pleased to learn that they will get have a better chance to take the first ochre leader’s jersey in the race. The short 132.6km stage goes from Angaston to Campbelltown and is a mostly flat affair, with only a few small climbs along the way. From the start, the riders do two laps of a rolling 32km circuit on the northern outskirts of Tanunda before they head in a southwesterly direction towards the finish in Campbelltown. The only real challenge is Checker’s Hill which comes 28.5km from the finish. It is a short, steep 1.2km climb with an average gradient of 8.9% (as the riders do it from the less steep direction) and it may be used to put some of the sprinters under pressure. The climb will also serve as the place to decide the first holder of the KOM jersey.

 

The finale is completely non-technical as the riders travel along a straight row for the final few kilometres. It is almost completely flat but the finishing straight is very slightly uphill.

 

Campbelltown has only hosted the finish of a stage once but in 2014 the stage had a completely different nature. Back then, the riders went up the Corkscrew climb just a few kilometres before the finish and it was Cadel Evans who distanced everybody else to become the first rider to win in the city on the northeastern outskirts of Adelaide.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The Tour Down Under has become infamously known for its brutally hot conditions which can make it pretty hard for European riders that arrive in Australia from a cold European winter. In the beginning of January, hot weather and lots of wind started some of the biggest bushfires in recent years which briefly caused the organizers to change the race route. After the riders have arrived, however, things have cooled down and it is likely that the temperature will stay below the 30-degree mark for the duration of the six-day race.

 

Tuesday is set to be a mostly cloudy day but there is a chance that the riders will get a glimpse of the sun towards the end of the opening stage. The temperature is expected to reach a maximum of 27 degrees, making it a very pleasant day for a bike race.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind as soon as they leave the opening circuit on which they will mostly have a tail- or headwind. On the long finishing straight, there will be a cross-tailwind, making the conditions perfect for a very fast sprint in Campbelltown.

 

The favourites

The Tour Down Under was once known as a festival for sprinters, with the fast finishers dominating most of the stages and even winning the race overall. Those days are long gone and nowadays there are only a few chances for the fastest riders to go for glory in the Australian race.

 

This year the sprinters can realistically fancy their chances in three of the six stages and so they need to make the most of their few opportunities. On paper, the first one comes on the opening day where the scene is set for a continuation of the tradition that allows a sprinter to take the first ochre leader’s jersey in the race.

 

However, the first stage of the race may not be as straightforward as it looks on paper. The stage is almost completely flat and the tailwind means that there should be no chance to create echelons on the way from Angaston to Campbelltown. However, Checker’s Hill may destroy the party for the fast finishers who may get an unpleasant surprise on the 1.2km climb that is pretty steep.

 

It was no surprise that Marcel Kittel stamped his authority on the sprinting scene right from the beginning of the year when he and Giant-Alpecin delivered a splendid performance to win the People’s Choice Classic. If his rivals had any doubts, they have now all learned that the German is by far the fastest rider in the race and to prevent another dominant Kittel win, they need to get rid of the German before the finishing straight in Campbelltown.

 

The only chance to do some damage comes on Checker’s Hill and this is where the race will get exciting. The first part of the stage is likely to be pretty traditional and we can expect an early breakaway to get clear pretty early. Everybody knows that the stage will be controlled by the sprint teams and so there is no real reason to waste too much energy by going on the attack. The days when you can finish in the top 10 on GC by taking bonus seconds in the intermediate sprints, are gone and so everybody will be saving energy for the more important battles later in the race. Expect a small group with riders from UniSA, Drapac and the likes of FDJ to establish a small gap.

 

It will be interesting to see which teams will control the race. On paper, Kittel is the big favourite and so we can expect the German team to put Chad Haga and Lawson Craddock on the front to keep the gap at a reasonable distance. In the People’s Choice Classic, they didn’t get much help from their rivals and the sprint teams will again be keen to tire the Germans out. Due to the presence of Checker’s Hill, Giant-Alpecin may not be willing to do all the work on their own but there is no big chance that the break will stay away. The GC teams won’t risk anything at this early point of the race and if the break gets too much of an advantage, Sky and BMC have to kick into action to save their GC options. Hence, we can expect the break to be caught inside the final 30km but they may get a chance to fight it out for the KOM points.

 

The main action will happen on Checker’s Hill which is a very short but pretty steep climb. At this point of the year, nobody knows how everyone is climbing and it is usually easier to get rid of the sprinters than it is later in the season. Some teams simply have to try to put Kittel under pressure and we can expect some teams to animate the race at this point.

 

For Orica-GreenEDGE, the Tour Down Under is one of the most important races of the year and without Simon Gerrans on the roster, they are focusing on stage wins. Sports director Matt White has admitted that they are unlikely to beat the likes of Richie Porte and Cadel Evans in the hilltop finishes and they won’t win the final criterium either. This means that they only have three chances to get that elusive victory and one of their best options comes on the first day.

 

Daryl Impey is a pretty fast guy from a small group but he has no chance against the pure sprinters. For the South African to win the stage, the team has to get rid of the faster guys before the finish in Campbelltown and we expect Orica-GreenEDGE to try to make the race hard. With Cameron Meyer and Simon Clarke on the roster, they have some serious firepower and we won’t be surprised to see those two guys ride tempo up the climb. They may get some assistance from the likes of IAM, Movistar and Trek that may be equally keen to put Kittel into difficulty.

 

For Orica-GreenEDGE, the ideal scenario is to get rid of a lot of sprinters which will allow Impey to go for the stage win and take a few bonus seconds. They will be assisted by the tailwind which makes it harder for the sprinters to stay in contact. On the other hand, the climb is pretty short and if a rider starts near the front of the peloton, he will have some time to drift backwards before he gets dropped.

 

At the top of the climb, it will be time to assess the situation and if some of the sprinters have been dropped, we can expect a furious chase in the final part. A regrouping could take place but many teams will probably be keen on maintaining any gaps. It is definitely not a given thing that all the sprinters will be present for the sprint.

 

At this point of the year, it is hard to know how everyone is climbing and usually the riders don’t know too much about their form. Kittel has now done the Tour Down Under twice and he has never managed to win a stage. In fact, he has usually been riding very poorly in the Australian race. Last year he won the opening criterium but in the WorldTour race he was never in contention for a stage victory. On the other hand, he climbed better than ever before just a few weeks later in the Dubai Tour and it is hard to know which Kittel has arrived in Adelaide this year.

 

Due to Kittel’s history in the Australian race and the fact that there will be a tailwind on the climb, we make the bold prediction that the German won’t win the stage. There is a big chance that he will get dropped and even if he makes it over with the best, it may have taken the sting out of his legs.

 

Instead, we put our money on Giacomo Nizzolo to win the stage. On paper, the Italian is the second fastest rider in the race and he is a much better climber than Kittel. In fact, his main strength is his ability to sprint at the end of a hard, undulating race and tomorrow’s stage could be a tough affair.

 

Nizzolo is supported by a strong Trek team that is mostly focused on the sprints and with the likes of Eugenio Alafaci, Marco Coledan and Hayden Roulston at his side, he has a decent lead-out. It remains to be seen which riders will make it over Checker’s Hill but Nizzolo has proved that he is not too reliant on a strong lead-out train as he usually handles the positioning aspect very well.

 

The main question is Nizzolo’s form. The Italian failed to make an impact in the People’s Choice Classic where he finished outside the top 10. One year ago, however, he won a tough uphill sprint in the Tour de San Luis and nothing suggests that he is not at a similar level this year. In last year’s Giro, he was very close to beating Nacer Bouhanni on several occasions, proving that he has the speed to take the first leader’s jersey in Australia.

 

No one can rule out a Kittel victory though. Yesterday the German made a strong impression in Adelaide where he rode attentively near the front of the peloton for the entire race before leaving everyone else behind in the sprint. In general, he has improved his climbing a lot and if he is at a decent level, he should be able to get over Checker’s Hill.

 

Furthermore, he is supported by a formidable lead-out train. Yesterday Koen De Kort did another splendid lead-out and it would be no surprise if he can repeat that performance in Campbelltown. The long tailwind sprint suits a power sprinter like Kittel perfectly so if he is there at the end, he will obviously be the man to beat.

 

Last year Juan Jose Lobato took a massive step up, finishing fourth in Milan-Sanremo and being close to the top sprinters in several WorldTour races. This year he should improve even more and he got his season off to a perfect start when he finished second in yesterday’s sprint.

 

Lobato is both very fast and a very good climber and he should have no trouble getting over Checker’s Hill. He claims to be in very good condition and he will receive full support from Movistar in the first two stages of the race before they shift their attention to Gorka Izagirre and Ruben Fernandez in the GC battle. He may not have the same speed as Nizzolo and Kittel but he is not too far behind. Even though the power sprint doesn’t suit him perfectly, the in-form Spaniard is one of the fastest riders in the peloton and is one of the big favourites to win the stage.

 

Heinrich Haussler got his 2015 season off to a perfect start when he won the Australian road race championships. The IAM captain goes into the Tour Down Under with lots of confidence and he proved his good condition yesterday when he finished fifth in Adelaide. In fact, he claimed to have been coming very fast from behind and if he hadn’t been forced to brake, he would have been on the podium.

 

Compared to the pure sprinters, Haussler is a much better climber and he should benefit from the presence of Checker’s Hill. He climbed well at the Australian Nationals when he returned to the front group on the run-in to the finish and he proved his speed when he beat the in-form Caleb Ewan. He usually doesn’t position himself too well but if he gets a clear run to the line, he has the form to win the stage.

 

Gianni Meersman is no pure sprinter but he excels in sprints that come at the end of very hard races. If tomorrow’s stage turns out to be harder than expected, the Belgian has a chance to take the win. He showed good condition when he finished 6th yesterday and the first stage suits him a lot better. He will have to share sprinting duties with Mark Renshaw but yesterday the pair did their two separate sprints. Renshaw is not climbing as well as Meersman and there is a big chance that he will have been left behind before the finish. In that case, Meersman will be ready to shine.

 

Lampre-Merida have one of the most powerful sprint teams for the race. With Roberto Ferrari, Niccolo Bonifazio and Davide Cimolai, they have three cards to play but in this race they have indicated that Bonifazio will be the lead sprinter. The Italian didn’t do very well in yesterday’s sprint but he should have a better chance in tomorrow’s harder stage. Last year he won the Coppa Agostoni in a breakthrough season and by doing that, he proved that he is a very decent climber. If he is in good condition, he should be able to survive Checker’s Hill and then his first big WorldTour win is within reach.

 

Finally, we will pick a few jokers. Last year Drapac went into the Tour Down Under with the goal of riding aggressively but this year they are focused on their sprinter Wouter Wippert. The Dutchman did really well yesterday when he finished third and he can count on a very strong lead-out, led by experienced lead-out man Graeme Brown. There is a big risk that the climbing will be too tough for both Wippert and Brown but if the Dutchman is there at the end, he could produce a surprise.

 

The UniSA team usually does really well at the Tour Down Under and this year they are again likely to make an impact. Some of their best options come in the sprint stages where Steele von Hoff will be keen to prove that he deserves to return to the WorldTour. The Australian is riding very well at the moment, winning the sprint from the group of favourites in his Nationals road race and beating Caleb Ewan in the criterium. He should be able to get over Checker’s Hill with the best and he will benefit from a reduced peloton as he usually doesn’t position himself too well.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Giacomo Nizzolo

Other winner candidates: Marcel Kittel, Juan Jose Lobato

Outsiders: Heinrich Haussler, Gianni Meersman, Niccolo Bonifazio

Jokers: Wouter Wippert, Steele von Hoff