Simon Gerrans kicked off the Tour Down Under in the best possible way when he again beat one of the fastest sprinters in the world to become the first leader of the race. The Australian pre-race favourite has a fantastic opportunity of making it two in a row when the race continues with the traditional uphill finish in Stirling that suits him down to the ground.

 

The course

The pure sprinters will again have to bide their time on the second stage which is a real Tour Down Under classic. The uphill sprint in Stirling has become a tradition of the Australian race, with the finish featuring in all editions since its debut in 2009. While the stage usually doesn't decide the GC, it is a tricky one where potential winners can target bonus seconds and where you can easily lose a few seconds in the hectic finale.

 

The 150,0km stage starts in Prospect just north of Adelaide and follows a mostly flat road in a northern direction until a long uncategorized climb leads to the intermediate sprint in One Tree Hill. From there, the riders head through rolling terrain for the next 75km as they start a southern journey that takes them to the finishing city of Stirling. Along the way, they will tackle the short, steep category 2 climbs Golden Grove (1km, 9,9%) and Checker Hill (0,6km, 13,3%) but as they are located already at the 34,8km and 56,3km marks respectively, they will have no influence on the final outcome.

 

With around 50km to go, the riders reach the famed 21,3km circuit around Stirling which consists of the long uphill drag to the finish and a second, undulating, mostly downhill section. The finishing straight is non-technical with only a few sweeping bends inside the final kilometre. In the past, the stage has been made tougher by adding more and more laps around the circuit, culminating last year when the riders did 5 full laps. After heading up the uphill finishing straight for the first time, the riders will only have to do two full laps in this year's edition, making for an easier version of the stage. The stage usually comes down to a battle between the hardest sprinters and the puncheurs but the slightly lighter edition of the stage could favour the faster guys.

 

In 2009 Allan Davis beat Graeme Brown in the uphill sprint while Manuel Cardoso held off Alejandro Valverde and Cadel Evans with a long sprint in 2010. In 2011, Michael Matthews proved that he is perfectly suited to this finish when he triumphed ahead of Andre Greipel and Matthews Goss and one year later he again won the sprint - albeit only for second as William Clarke held off the field in a long solo move. Last year Tom-Jelte Slagter laid the foundations for his overall win by holding off Goss and Philippe Gilbert.

 

 

 

 

The weather

After the heat wave of last week has left Australia for now, the riders couldn't have wished better conditions for the opening WorldTour race of the season. The heat is set to return next week but for the duration of the Tour Down Under, it should be unusually cold in Adelaide.

 

Tomorrow the riders can will face temperatures that stay below the 30-degree mark, with the maximum of 28 degrees expected to be reached late in the afternoon. However, it will be a very cloudy day and the peloton is unlikely to see the sun as they head around the circuit in Stirling.

 

Today's first stage was a windy one but the wind will have less of an impact on the second one. A light breeze will blow from an eastern direction which means that the riders will mostly have a crosswind in the first part of the stage before turning into more of a tailwind as they approach the finishing circuit where the wind will be coming from all directions. With a little bit less than 1km to go, the riders will turn onto the finishing straight where they will enjoy a direct tailwind.

 

The favourites

While the inclusion of Menglers Hill on stage one was a novelty that made the riders uncertain about what to expect on the opening day of the Australian race, there will be no surprises on the second one. Anyone who has done the Tour Down Under before, knows the uphill finish in Stirling but it doesn't make the outcome much easier to predict.

 

The finishing straight is a tough one but the gradients are manageable for some of the sprinters. In 2011 when Michael Matthews won the stage, Andre Greipel and Matthew Goss were 2nd and 3rd and last year Goss was 2nd behind Tom-Jelte Slagter. With fewer laps on the circuit this time around, the sprinters may have an even better shot at victory than they have had in recent years and may fancy their chances in tomorrow's stage.

 

However, the stage has generally been dominated by puncheurs and classics specialists and it is unlikely that the sprint teams will do anything to chase down the early break. With Simon Gerrans showing superior form and the team having a number of winner candidates, all eyes will be on Orica-GreenEDGE to take care of the early pace-setting when the day's breakaway has been established.

 

After winning stage one, Orica-GreenEDGE sports director Matthew White admitted that there was extra pressure on the team to take the responsibility but they will gladly do so again tomorrow. The Tour Down Under is an extremely important event for the  team and with Gerrans being the odds-on favourite to win, there is no way they will let the win slip away.

 

On stage one, the team got a bit of help from Team Sky. The British team may take more of a back seat tomorrow but if things get out of control, there is no doubt that they will lend Orica-GreenEDGE a hand. On the other hand, the team will be happy to see a non-dangerous breakaway take away the bonus seconds and if there are no GC threats in the escape, they will leave all the work to the Australian favourites.

 

However, riders like Luke Durbridge and Mathew Hayman are strong rouleurs and they will make sure that things are back together by the time, the riders hit the uphill section for the final time. The race is destined to be decided in a sprint and again Orica-GreenEDGE will be the team to beat.

 

The Australians have a number of riders that have all finished near the top in this stage and again their biggest challenge will be to find out who is going to be their man for the day. Michael Matthews has won the sprint of the peloton in Stirling twice and is unbeaten in this finish. On the other hand, the stage also suits Gerrans down to the ground and he will be eager to bolster his lead by adding a few bonus seconds.

 

On the other hand, Goss is unlikely to get his chance, despite having finished in the top 3 on the stage twice. The team's main sprinter doesn't appear to be in a condition that will allow him to battle for the win in such a hard finish.

 

Again Gerrans must be the main favourite. By beating Andre Greipel in a sprint that was only slightly uphill and by beating Peter Sagan in a flat sprint in last year's Tour de France, Gerrans has proved that when the sprint comes at the end of a hard day he is very difficult to beat. Tomorrow the level of climbing may not be as tough as Menglers Hill but the sprint will be way harder. When Gerrans can beat his faster rivals in today's sprint, he will be even harder to beat tomorrow.

 

Surprisingly, Gerrans has never finished better than 3rd in Stirling and he also has a 4th place on his palmares. However, his performance in the national championships when he dropped Cadel Evans and Richie Porte on Mt. Buninyoung suggests that he is going better than ever at this time of the year and with the likes of Matthews, Daryl Impey and Simon Clarke to prepare the sprint, he will be very hard to beat. If Orica-GreenEDGE again plays the Gerrans card - which would be the natural choice - he could remain unbeaten in 2014.

 

The other option for Orica-GreenEDGE is to back Matthews. If the team decides to give the former winner in Stirling a shot at glory, he will be the natural favourite. In both the Australian championships and the first stage, he sacrificed himself completely for Gerrans but his splendid climbing proves that he is going really well. Last year he didn't do the Tour Down Under and so no one has ever beaten him in the sprint in Stirling. A sprint between Gerrans and Matthews would be a thrilling - albeit unrealistic - one to watch and Orica-GreenEDGE finds itself in the luxury position of having the two main favourites on their team.

 

The biggest rival could very well be Diego Ulissi. The Lampre-Merida rider ended his 2014 season in impressive fashion when he won the Milan-Turin, Coppa Sabatini and Giro dell'Emilia and on all occasions he did so by winning uphill sprints. He won a stage in the Tour de Pologne in similar fashion and the finish in Stirling suits him really well.

 

Originally, he doubted that his condition was good enough to go for glory in Australia but after today's stage that gave him a 4th place, he has expressed his desire to target the GC. This suggests that he is going really well and he will have solid support from an in-form Rafael Valls Ferri. Orica-GreenEDGE will do themselves a big favour by keeping an eye on the Lampre-Merida riders in tomorrow's finale.

 

Fabio Felline loves the kind of uphill sprints that is on offer in Stirling and proved so when he finished 2nd behind Enrico Battaglin in stage 4 of last year's Giro. Today his new Trek team had plenty of confidence in their Italian signing but bad luck ruled him out before Menglers climb and he lost more than 3 minutes. He will be eager to make amends and while the team's main focus will be to keep Frank Schleck out of trouble, Felline will be a danger man in this kind of finish.

 

Team Sky took plenty of responsibility in today's stage to make sure that Geraint Thomas and Richie Porte remains in GC contention. While Porte will wait for Willunga and Corkscrew to strike, Thomas will be eager to pick up bonus seconds as early as possible. Unfortunately, Thomas missed out on the opportunity to sprint for bonus seconds when he was blocked by the late crash but he managed to finish ahead of the split that occurred in the finale. Originally, he had been cautious about his own chances but the team continues to back their Brit fully and he will be a danger man in the uphill sprint in Stirling. Last year he could only manage 4th but he has been pleasantly surprised by his condition and could get his GC campaign off the ground with a win tomorrow.

 

Cadel Evans has only contested the finish in Stirling once and on that occasion he finished 3rd behind Manuel Cardoso and Alejandro Valverde. His performance in the nationals suggests that he is back to his best after a couple of illness-plagued seasons and he relishes the kind of uphill finishes that is found in Stirling. He would have preferred a harder stage with more laps on the final circuit but he still has the punch that will make him a candidate tomorrow.

 

Finally, we will pick a joker. Francesco Gavazzi has made sprints on hard days his specialty and he has a host of top 10 finishes in stages in hard races on his palmares. He rarely wins but one of his biggest victories was taken in an uphill sprint in the 2012 Tour of Beijing. That finish was significantly harder than the one in Stirling but his performance in today's first stage suggests that he is going well. Look out for Astana to try to position their fast Italian when they roar towards the finish in Stirling.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Other winner candidates: Michael Matthews, Diego Ulissi

Outsiders: Fabio Felline, Geraint Thomas, Cadel Evans

Joker: Francesco Gavazzi