The sprinters were surprised by a very strong breakaway on the opening day and now they will have to wait until Friday before they get the chance to test their fast legs. Tomorrow it will be the first small opportunity for the GC riders to show their cards in the traditional uphill sprint in Stirling that always produces an exciting battle between the climbers, puncheurs and strongest sprinters.

 

The course

The pure sprinters will step out of the spotlight after the opening day as the second stage is a tough Tour Down Under classic. The uphill sprint in Stirling has become a tradition of the Australian race, with the finish featuring in all editions since its debut in 2009. While the stage usually doesn't decide the GC, it is a tricky one where potential winners can target bonus seconds and where you can easily lose a few seconds in the hectic finale.

 

The stage has traditionally started in Unley just south of Adelaide and after a one-year absence, that city will again be back as the starting point for the tough stage. The distance between the start and finish is very short but to reach the total distance of 150.5km – the longest stage ever to finish in Stirling – the riders will zigzag their way through the area for a little while. Right from the beginning, it is uphill as the riders will climb slightly for almost 20km and at the 29.8km mark, they will be tested on the only categorized climb of the day, Basket Range. From there they head south along flat roads to the city of Hahndorf – which has often hosted a stage finish – where they do a lap of a flat circuit on the eastern outskirts of the city.

 

From there they head to the famed 21,3km circuit around Stirling which they hit with around 50km to go and which consists of the long uphill drag to the finish and a second, undulating, mostly downhill section. This is where the action will pan out as the rising section to the finish is too tough for a lot of riders – especially if some of the climbing teams decide to up the pace. The finishing straight is non-technical with only a few sweeping bends inside the final kilometre.

 

In the past, the stage has been made tougher by adding more and more laps around the circuit, culminating in 2013 when the riders did 5 full laps. After heading up the uphill finishing straight for the first time, the riders will only have to do two full laps in this year's edition, making for an easier version of the stage. A similar format was used in 2014. The stage usually comes down to a battle between the hardest sprinters and the puncheurs but the easier edition of the stage could favour the faster guys.

 

In 2009 Allan Davis beat Graeme Brown in the uphill sprint while Manuel Cardoso held off Alejandro Valverde and Cadel Evans with a long sprint in 2010. In 2011, Michael Matthews proved that he is perfectly suited to this finish when he triumphed ahead of Andre Greipel and Matthew Goss and one year later he again won the sprint - albeit only for second as William Clarke held off the field in a long solo move. In 2013 Tom-Jelte Slagter laid the foundations for his overall win by holding off Goss and Philippe Gilbert while Diego Ulissi timed his move to perfection to win last year’s stage ahead of Simon Gerrans and Cadel Evans.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The brutal heat that has often characterized the Tour Down Under will again stay away for the second day of racing which offers nearly perfect conditions for cycling. After a cloudy start to the day, the sun will come out and the riders will do most of the stage under the brightest sunshine. The temperature will reach a pleasant maximum of 27 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southerly direction which is set to abate as the stage goes on. This means that the riders will have a crosswind in the first part before they turn into a headwind in the run-in to the circuit in Stirling – only interspersed with the short lap on the Hahndorf circuit. On the final circuit, there will be a cross-tailwind up the climb and mainly a headwind in the second, mostly downhill part.

 

The favourites

The GC riders could have created a big problem for themselves in today’s opening stage as they nearly allowed a very dangerous breakaway to gain time that could be very difficult to get back. In the end, they limited the damage to the bonus seconds but Lieuwe Westra could have become a serious threat for the overall win, had he gained more than 30 seconds in today’s stage.

 

As we already predicted in yesterday’s preview, no sprint teams were willing to provide any help to Giant-Alpecin who instead had to rely on GC teams BMC and Sky to keep the situation under control. In the end, the sprinters missed their opportunity to sprint for the win and the situation underlined the tactical battle that is making things complicated in the Tour Down Under and which could again come into play tomorrow.

 

While the first stage had a clear favourite, tomorrow’s stage is a much more open affair. The uphill sprint in Stirling has been won by a several different kinds of riders. This means that many riders may fancy their chances but no one can feel assured that they are actually going to be in contention for the win, making the stage probably the most unpredictable of the entire race.

 

A lot of riders will have been inspired by today’s result and we can expect a much harder battle to join the early breakaway. It is pretty hard to control the race on the tough Stirling circuit and so a breakaway has a realistic chance of making it. Hence, we can expect a fast start to the stage and as it is all uphill for 20km, a lot of riders might get into difficulty in the early part of the race.

 

The tough start also means that the early breakaway could be a pretty strong one and so the chase needs to get organized very early, setting the scene for another very fast stage. It will be interesting to see which teams take up the gauntlet and put a few riders on the front as there is no obvious favourite for the stage. We expect most of the work to be left to Sky and BMC who have the two major favourites but they may get a bit of assistance from Movistar who have a strong contender for the stage in Juan Jose Lobato. Marcel Kittel has no chance in this finale but as Giant-Alpecin are mainly here for the GC, it would be no surprise to the German team ride a bit on the front if the situation becomes dangerous.

 

The race will get serious on the Stirling circuit where we can expect some attacks from the peloton. BMC and Sky will have to do a lot of work to keep the situation under control but both teams are pretty strong. With Evans being a pretty strong sprinter in this kind of finish, BMC may even try to accelerate to get rid of some of the faster guys and provide their captain with a chance to score some bonus seconds. As opposed to this, Richie Porte is not explosive enough for this kind of finish and Sky will probably prefer more fast finishers to be present at the finish. In the past, Movistar have tried to make this stage very hard as they have usually had lots of climbers but tomorrow their main focus will be Lobato who needs the stage to be as easy as possible.

 

 A strong breakaway – either an early or a late one – definitely has a chance but history proves that the stage usually comes down to a bunch sprint. The headwind on the downhill section will make things harder for the attackers and with BMC and Sky both keen not to lose their GC options, we don’t expect a repeat of the 2012 race when a breakaway managed to surprise the peloton.

 

With an uphill sprint on the cards, the stage will come down to its usual interesting mix of climbers, puncheurs and sprinters. In the past, strong sprinters like Michael Matthews, Manuel Cardoso, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Allan Davis and Matthew Goss have done well in this stage but the stage has mostly been dominated by punchy Ardennes specialists like Philippe Gilbert, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Diego Ulissi, Simon Gerrans and Alejandro Valverde. However, climbers like Cadel Evans, Richie Porte and Robert Gesink have also finished in the top 6 in this stage, making it a very unpredictable affair. The fewer laps of the circuit should favour the sprinters while the tailwind should be an advantage for the climbers.

 

Juan Jose Lobato is knocking on the door for a big breakthrough win and he has already been close several times in Australia. He was second behind Marcel Kittel in the People’s Choice Classic and today he finished third in the bunch sprint behind the early breakaway. He claims to be in very good condition and to have worked hard during the winter and this has earned him the backing from the Movistar team in most of the stages in the Tour Down Under.

 

Lobato definitely has a chance to win one of the traditional sprint stages but his biggest opportunity comes tomorrow. The Spaniard has made uphill sprints his specialty and it is no coincidence that he took his only two wins in 2014 in that kind of finish. He beat Gianni Meersman to win an uphill sprint in the Tour de Wallonie but his most impressive performance came at the Vuelta a Burgos where he easily distanced the peloton in a much harder finale, holding off Daniel Moreno who is an expert in that kind of finish.

 

If he can prevail in that kind of finish, Lobato will not find the circuit in Stirling too tough. The main issue is whether his condition will allow him to go up against the climbers in this finale. However, everything points towards his form being at a very advanced level and compared to the GC riders he is clearly faster. If he can position himself well for the final sprint, he knows how to time his acceleration and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival could be another rider with similar characteristics. Gianni Meersman is another specialist in uphill sprints who made the world aware of his talents when he beat Alejandro Valverde to win a similar stage in the 2012 Paris-Nice. Meersman often mixes it up in flat sprints too but his real specialty is the uphill ones. Last year he finished second behind Lobato in the uphill sprint in the penultimate stage of the Tour de Wallonie where he rode consistently well in this kind of terrain.

 

Today he was second in the bunch sprint and in the People’s Choice Classic, he was sixth. Those races didn’t really suit him too well but the performances indicate that he is already in very good condition. He may not have the same top speed as Lobato but he is very good at positioning himself. This makes him a very dangerous contender for the stage.

 

Tom Dumoulin is mainly known as a time trial specialist but don’t be fooled by his big stature. The Dutchman is one of the most versatile riders in the peloton as he can also climb, is very punchy on short climbs and has a fast sprint. Those skills make him an obvious candidate for this stage and it is certainly no coincidence that he finished second in last year’s GP de Quebec which has a very similar finale.

 

Dumoulin’s form is of course a bit unknown – also to himself – but he has done nothing to hide that he is here to be in contention for the overall win. Hence, his condition cannot be too bad and tomorrow will offer him a perfect chance to pick up some bonus seconds. To beat the likes of Meersman and Lobato, he needs the race to be hard but if it turns out to be one for the GC guys, he will be the man to beat.

 

Cadel Evans has an excellent track record in this stage as he has finished in the top 3 whenever he has done it. Last year he was third and this year he will be eager to improve on that performance. Evans may be mostly known as a GC rider but he is also very fast in a sprint, especially when it is uphill. As a past winner of Fleche Wallonne, he would have preferred the finish to be a bit harder but he knows that he can do well here too. Everybody knows that he is excellent condition and he will be keen to score a few bonus seconds to get a bit of an advantage over Richie Porte.

 

Luis Leon Sanchez is another GC contender who is perfectly suited to this kind of finish. In the past, he has won similar uphill sprints, most notably in the Tour de Romandie a few years ago and he is definitely a contender for this stage too. The Spaniard is always in excellent condition at the start of the season and according to his teammate Lieuwe Westra, it is no different in 2015. While the later stages may be a bit too hard for Sanchez, this stage offers him the best chance to win a stage and score important bonus seconds.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE is here with the main goal of winning a stage and their best opportunity comes tomorrow. Daryl Impey has no chance against the pure sprinters but in an uphill sprint, he is a contender. After he came back from suspension, he rode stronger than ever before and the way he climbed in the Canadian WorldTour races proves that he has improved his climbing skills a lot.

 

Last year Impey finished 10th in this stage but back then he was mainly working for Simon Gerrans who was second. This proves that he can be up there in this kind of stage and he will have the complete support from the Orica-GreenEDGE team. With Simon Clarke to set him up for the finish, look out for Impey to salvage Orica-GreenEDGE’s race.

 

Last year Nathan Haas took a breakthrough fifth place in the Tour Down Under and this year he is back with the goal of improving on that. He is the undisputed leader of Cannondale-Garmin and tomorrow’s stage suits him down to the ground. The later stages may be a bit too hard to his liking but with his fast sprint, this stage is made for him. In the Criterium International, he has often done well in the uphill sprint on stage 1 and this one is not too different. With the Tour Down Under being a big goal, he is definitely in good form and he could become the first rider from the merged team to take a win.

 

Finally, we will select three jokers. Richie Porte is the clear leader at Sky but the team has a good back-up plan with Geraint Thomas. The Brit was close to winning the race two years ago when he was fourth in this stage. His main goal is to support Porte but as this finish is too explosive to suit the Australian, the best option for Sky may be to try to have Thomas takes away a few bonus seconds. Thomas is constantly improving his climbing and with his fast sprint, he is suited to this stage.

 

Samuel Dumoulin is another specialist in uphill sprints and with consistently good performances in the first two sprints, he seems to be riding really well. On paper, this stage suits him really well and he will definitely be a contender. For some reason, he is rarely fast enough to win races outside his home country but tomorrow could be the day to change that trend.

 

Michael Rogers is here to ride for GC and tomorrow will be his first big test. He may not be known for his sprinting skills but don’t be fooled by the Tinkoff-Saxo leader. Rogers is pretty fast and it is no coincidence that he was fifth in the uphill sprint on stage 1 of last year’s Tour de France. In 2010, he was fifth in this stage and he will be eager to get his GC campaign off to a great start tomorrow.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Juan Jose Lobato

Other winner candidates: Gianni Meersman, Tom Dumoulin

Outsiders: Cadel Evans, Luis Leon Sanchez, Daryl Impey, Nathan Haas

Jokers: Geraint Thomas, Samuel Dumoulin, Michael Rogers