Until now, the GC battle in the Tour Down Under has been all about bonus seconds but that will change tomorrow when the riders hit the first serious climb of this year's edition of the opening WorldTour race. The Corkscrew climb is a real beast with some very steep section and as it comes just 7,4km from the finish in Campbelltown, it is set to provide a real spectacle when the climbers try to get rid of race leader Simon Gerrans before the finish.

The course

While the puncheurs had the upper hand on stage 2, the climbers will come to the fore on stage 3 which is likely to offer a proper indication of who is going to win this year's Tour Down Under. Last year the organizers introduced the brutal category 1 climb up Corkscrew Road, with the ascent playing host to a dramatic battle where Geraint Thomas rode away from everyone else to win the stage. Organizers and fans were excited by the spectacle and so it will be a welcome return that the 2,4km climb with its average gradient of 9,0% features in the finale of the third stage of this year's race.

The 145,0km stage starts in Norwood on the eastern outskirts of Adelaide and gets off to a tough start as the first 10km are all uphill up a non-categorized climb. From there, things get significantly easier as the next 125km only have a number of rolling hills but are mostly flat. The excitement is saved for the final 9,8km that consist of the 2,4km Corckscrew Road climb and a fast downhill that leads directly to the finish in Campbelltown.

The climb starts with a 7,8% section and then hits its steepest part where the gradient doesn't drop below the 10% mark and which features gradients of up to 12,4%. The next part is also mostly above 10%, with the final 500m being easier at just 7,3%. Compared to last year, the finish has been moved from the Adelaide suburb of Rostrevor to the nearby Campbelltown and the distance from the top has been made slightly longer from 6km to 7,4km. The downhill run will, however, be largely the same and the descent will continue all the way to the finish which is located at the end of a long straight road, with a roundabout coming 1,2km from the line. The slightly longer distance will make it easier for a regrouping to take place but in any case, we will get a serious idea of who is the strongest rider in the race.

The weather

It will be another perfect day for a bike race as the city of Adelaide continues to enjoy lower temperatures than they usually do at this time of the year - and significantly lower than they did last week. The riders won't sett the sun much as it will be a cloudy day but there will be no reason to bring leg and arm warmers as the temperature is expected to reach a maximum of 30 degrees at around midday.

There will only be a light wind which is set to change direction during the stage. When the riders start the stage, it comes from an eastern direction, meaning that there will generally be a headwind in the first part of the stage. When the riders turn around to head back towards Adelaide, the wind will have done the same. Coming from a western direction, it will again be against the riders in the second part of the stage. Crucially, this means that there will be a cross-headwind on the Corkscrew climb and a direct headwind on the downhill section to the finish. Similarly, there will be a headwind on the finishing straight. This will make it slightly more difficult to make a difference on the climb and also more difficult to keep any gap all the way to the line in Campbelltown.

The favourites

Saturday's stage to the top of Willunga Hill may be the race's queen stage but the day when Simon Gerrans could potentially be dethroned, is probably tomorrow. The more gentle gradient of the Willunga climb and the uphill sprint suit the Australian champion down to the ground but he could come into slightly more difficulty on the Corkscrew climb which has some much steeper sections.

Hence, it is no surprise that Orica-GreenEDGE sports director Matt White and Gerrans have both stated that the key day for the GC is tomorrow. If Gerrans is still in the lead at the end of tomorrow's stage, he finds himself in a very good position going into the final three days of the race.

Gerrans' rivals are aware of this fact and the real climbers know that they need to try an attack tomorrow. On Menglers Hill, everybody had a defensive mind but that will have changed for tomorrow when we can expect a real showdown on the Corkscrew climb.

This also means that the early breakaway has no chance of success. A stage win and bonus seconds are up for grabs for the race favourites and no GC contender can allow the early escapees to ride away with the bonus. The main workload will again be on Orica-GreenEDGE's shoulders and we can again expect to see Luke Durbridge and Matt Goss  spend considerable time on the front of the peloton.

However, they could very well get some help from Sky and maybe also BMC. On both stages 1 and 2, Sky tried to make the race hard in the finales and they know that a climber like Richie Porte will have the biggest chances of getting rid of an Ardennes specialist like Gerrans if the race becomes tough. At BMC, Cadel Evans, Ben Hermans, Brent Bookwalter and Steve Morabito have all shown great form and the team plans to use their strength in numbers to put Orica-GreenEDGE under pressure for their leader Evans.

In the end, it will all come down to who has the legs on the Corkscrew climb. Last year, Geraint Thomas rode away from everyone on the climb but was joined by George Bennett, Ben Hermans and Javier Moreno on the descent. Bennett fell off the pace and ended the stage with a chase group of 12 riders that finished 4 seconds behind stage winner Thomas.

We could see a similar scenario tomorrow, with a select group of the strongest climbers emerging on the Corkscrew and a bigger group of chasers breathing down their necks. Whether the groups will come together will depend on the circumstances but as riders like Porte and Evans will be keen to secure overall podium places - both have admitted that Gerrans will be very hard to beat - there should be plenty of interest in keeping the move going.

For the third day in a row, Gerrans is the major favourite to win the stage. He may have been beaten by Diego Ulissi in today's sprint but the defeat was more a question of timing than a lack of power. In fact, Gerrans was clearly faster than Ulissi but ran out of metres in his attempt to reel in the Italian.

In the Australian national championships, Gerrans was the strongest climber and left riders like Evans and Porte behind when he accelerated the final time up the Mt. Buninyoung. The steeper slopes of the Corkscrew may suit the pure climbers a bit more but Gerrans is used to those kind of steep gradients and it is very hard to imagine that anyone can drop the race leader. Gerrans can allow himself to be conservative, just follow moves, and then use his superior sprint to add another 10 bonus seconds to his tally by winning the stage.

Even if a 15-rider group arrives at the finish, it is unlikely that anyone will be able to beat Gerrans in the downhill sprint. In last year's Tour de France, he beat Peter Sagan in a flat sprint and on Tuesday he defeated Greipel on a slightly uphill finishing straight. Among the GC riders, no one has the speed of Gerrans and as he is even likely to be fresher than his rivals, the odds are on Gerrans to win the stage.

Yesterday we said that Ulissi was the biggest obstacle for the Orica-GreenEDGE team and the Italian proved us right. This will again be the case tomorrow as the stage suits him perfectly. Ulissi's main weakness are long races and long climbs and he will find none of that tomorrow. Instead, he will be challenged by a short explosive climb that suits him down to the ground and he is a very fast finisher.

Ulissi was a bit cautious about his condition when he arrived in Australia but the first two stages have proved that he had no reason to be so. Nonetheless, he is unlikely to be in the same kind of form as riders like Gerrans, Evans and Porte and there is no guarantee that he will be able to keep up with them on the final climb. If anyone has a chance of beating Gerrans in a sprint though, it must be Ulissi. The downhill sprint will be a disadvantage but don't rule out another win for the strong Italian.

Cadel Evans appears to be back to his best after a couple of illness-plagued seasons and was clearly one of the strongest riders in today's tough finale. In the Australian championships, he was the first rider to cross the top of Mt. Buninyoung behind Gerrans and Corkscrew suits him better. If anyone has a chance of dropping Gerrans, it has to be the BMC leader. Short, steep, punchy climbs suit him well and he is even a rather fast finisher. To win the stage, however, he will have to get rid of the race leader.

The second rider that could potentially drop Evans is Porte. If all riders in the race were at their best, there is little doubt that the Sky leader is the strongest climber in the race. Of course the riders are all far from their best condition and Porte struggled to keep up with Gerrans and Evans in the Australian championships. Corkscrew suits him better but it is still way too short to be a perfect fit for him. At the same time, he has indicated that he is mostly targeting the podium and could be content with arriving with Gerrans at the finish. He has no fast sprint and will have to arrive alone at the finish to win the stage. Nonetheless, Porte could emerge as the strongest on the Corkscrew and could take a solo win. If he comes to the finish with a small group of 3-4 riders, he could even exploit the tactical battle to make a solo move like he did when he won a stage of last year's Vuelta al Pais Vasco.

Francesco Gavazzi has come close to the win twice in a row but he has not had the power to beat his faster rivals. The Italian isn't as strong on the climbs as Evans, Porte and Gerrans and is even unlikely to be in a condition to fight with the best. He won't crest the summit of Corkscrew in the first group but he could very well find himself in a chase group not too far behind. If things come back together, he is one of the select few who has the speed to potentially beat Gerrans.

Robert Gesink has always claimed that he has had a good winter and that he will be competitive in Australia. The first two stages have confirmed that assessment and it is testament to his strength that he beat much faster riders in today's uphill sprint. On paper, Gesink prefers longer climbs but he proved in last year's GP de Quebec that he can even perform well on shorter ones and he did so again today. The lanky Dutchman could very well crest the summit of Corkscrew in the select front group and if his Australian rivals are more focused on each other, look out for Gesink to produce a surprise attack.

Finally, we will select our joker. Last year Maxime Bouet crashed out of the Tour de France and he never reached hit best condition in the second part of the season. This year he has been given more responsibility and for the first time he leads a team in a WorldTour race. His crash kept his motivation high for the winter season and he has clearly arrived in Australia in a very good condition. In today's finish he was held up by the crash but he finished 5th on stage 1. If he makes it over the final climb with the best riders, he could be the one to make the move that surprises everyone else.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Other winner candidates: Diego Ulissi, Cadel Evans

Outsiders: Richie Porte, Francesco Gavazzi, Robert Gesink

Joker: Maxime Bouet