The GC riders got the first small chance to test their legs in today’s uphill sprint in Stirling and our three overall favourites all showed good condition by finishing in the top 7. Tomorrow it is time for the first big battle for the overall win when the main contenders go head to head on a new summit finish in Paracombe.

 

The course

Like last year the riders will have to wait until the third day to really make their mark and this year they will have a better chance to make a difference. While last year’s stage with the Corkscrew Climb gave them a solid chance to distance their rivals, the flat run-in to the finish allowed for some regrouping to take place. This year there will be an extra summit finish as the organizers head into untested territory for a brand new finale on the category 2 Torrens Hill Road in Paracombe.

 

At 143.2km, it is another pretty short stage and again the distance from the start in Norwood just east of Adelaide to the finish in Paracombe is pretty short. To build the distance, the riders will again have to zigzag their way through the area in the first part of the stage. As they head east, they will go up a gradual climb for the first 10km but from there, the terrain is very flat for almost the entire stage, with no categorized climbs and only a few rolling hills before the finale. After 50km, the riders will reach the city of Lobetal from where they will do two laps of 25.7km circuit. From there, they will head almost straight to the finish in Paracombe.

 

While the first part of the stage was easy, the finale will be very difficult. The roads are slightly descending for more than 10km, meaning that the riders will be riding very fast by the time they hit Torrens Hill Road. The final climb is just 1.2km long but with an average gradient of 9%, it is certainly tough enough to make a difference. The climb follows a long, straight road and there are no major technical issues. However, the top comes 450m from the finish which gives riders who have lost contact a small chance to get back in contention.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders enjoyed near-perfect condition for today’s stage as the clouds prevented things from getting too hot. Tomorrow they may face their first really hot day even though the temperature will not reach the level it has done in past years. All day the riders will have bright sunshine and a maximum of 30 degrees will make it the warmest day yet.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind in the first part before they turn around to hit a headwind as they approach Lobethal. On the circuit, they will mainly have a crosswind before they head back into a cross-headwind and a direct headwind for the final part. Importantly, there will be a headwind on the climb and on the final 450 flat metres to the finish.

 

The favourites

The uphill sprint to Stirling has never been a place to win the Tour Down Under but it has always been a tricky one for the GC riders. Splits usually occur in the hectic finale and while some fancy their chances of picking up a few bonus seconds, others are desperately trying to avoid any kind of time loss.

 

Today’s stage turned into the expected battle between puncheurs, strong sprinters and the GC riders and all overall contenders will be pleased to know that they didn’t lose any time. The big winner was Gorka Izagirre and Daryl Impey who both picked up important bonus seconds while both Tom Dumoulin and Cadel Evans vented their frustration of having narrowly missed out.

 

While today’s stage was one to avoid any time loss, tomorrow’s is the first chance to deal the rivals a blow. The Tour Down Under is set to be decided in stages 3 and 5 and it is impossible to overestimate the importance of the final climb in Paracombe. It may never have featured in the race before but as all teams arrived early to acclimatize, they will have checked the stage in the build-up to the event and everybody has made it clear that it is a tough one. Sports director Matt White has even indicated that it will be more important than the Willunga queen stage.

 

At 1.2km, the climb is very short but its average gradient makes it much steeper than Willunga. Of course it more suited to the punchy Ardennes riders than the pure climbers but at this point of the season, it is more about form than rider characteristics. The riders that will come to the fore, will be the one with the best condition.

 

Again the stage has an uphill start and we can expect another very fast start with lots of attacks. Many teams will be keen to make this race as hard as possible and this should set the scene for some aggressive racing. The fast pace will suit a team like Sky that is keen on making this stage as had as possible.

 

The tough start means that the break is again likely to be very strong and this – combined with the short distance – means that they are unlikely to get too much of an advantage. The chase work will probably be left to Sky, BMC and Jack Bobridge’s UniSA team. Today BMC were smart to send Campbell Flakemore up the road but tomorrow Sky will probably do their utmost to prevent a similar scenario as they want more allies in the chase.

 

The terrain is pretty flat which means that it will be hard for a breakaway to stay away and Sky and BMC will make sure not to take any unnecessary risks. It is highly unlikely that the break will stay away and everybody will be saving themselves for the final climb.

 

On such a short climb, positioning at the bottom is very important and the run-in to the bottom will be very fast. If you are not in the top 20 on the lower slopes, it will be very hard to win the stage and this makes team support very important.

 

As said, the final climb suits the punchy riders who will try to make a difference on the steep slopes. The headwind will make it harder to drop the rivals but with sections of up to 20%, it won’t have much of an impact. In fact, it may be an advantage for a solo rider that escapes in the finale as it will make the riding in a chase group a bit more tactical in the final 450 flat metres.

 

In our overall preview, we made Richie Porte our favourite to win the race and this means that he has to be up there in tomorrow’s stage. By winning the Australian TT championships, the Sky leader has proved to be in excellent condition and several observers have pointed out that he is leaner than ever before. In fact, he went into the season, claiming that he was 5kg lighter than he was at this time last year.

 

On paper, Porte is the strongest climber in the race but he is not a very explosive rider. In fact, this stage doesn’t suit him very well and he will have a better chance on the longer Willunga Hill. On the other hand, the steeper gradient will be to his advantage and make it easier for him to make a difference.

 

Porte’s main disadvantage is the fact that he needs to get rid of his rivals before the finish as he is not a fast sprinter. He needs to be on his own at the top of the climb but in that case, he is unlikely to get caught. The distance to the finish is pretty short and his great TT skills will make it hard for anyone to catch him. Being the best climber in the race and being in excellent condition, Porte is our favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival on the stage and in the battle for the overall is Cadel Evans. Unlike everybody else, the BMC leader doesn’t need to hold anything back for later in the season. This is the final stage race of his career and he has done his utmost to arrive in Adelaide at the maximum of his capabilities. By finishing 5th in today’s stage, he proved that he is clearly riding strongly.

 

On the other hand, it is the first time ever that he has finished outside the top 3 in Stirling and in general we have not been too impressed by his riding in his first four races of the year. Furthermore, he failed to reach his best level last autumn and it remains to be seen whether he still has the level to win a WorldTour event.

 

Nonetheless, it is hard to look past Evans as a strong contender for this stage. He is much better suited to this kind of finish than Porte as he is way more explosive. As a former Fleche Wallonne winner, he excels on short, steep climbs. Furthermore, he is pretty fast in a flat sprint and he will have no trouble beating Porte if those two riders arrive at the finish together. His strategy should be a simple one: try to hang onto Porte and beat him in a sprint.

 

Our third biggest favourite for the overall win has always been Tom Dumoulin and today he proved that he is in very good condition. The Dutchman finished fourth in the uphill sprint and if he hadn’t been slowed down by Izagirre in the finale, he would probably have picked up a few bonus seconds.

 

While he still needs to improve on the very long climbs, Dumoulin is very strong on short, steep ones as he proved in last year’s Eneco Tour and Canadian WorldTour races. This final climb suits him really well and he has the advantage of being very fast in a flat sprint too. For a big guy like Dumoulin, it will be hard to stay with the likes of Porte and Evans but if he is there at the finish, he will be the overwhelming favourite.

 

Luis Leon Sanchez has always started his seasons well and this year seems to be no exception. Lieuwe Westra has made it clear that his team leader is riding really well and he proved those words true when he finished sixth in today’s stage.

 

The final climb is probably a bit too steep for Sanchez and we doubt that he will be able to keep up with Porte and Evans. However, he may benefit from some kind of tactical battle to get back in contention in the flat final section. If that happens, he will be very hard to beat in a sprint and so he is one of the few riders who actually have a chance to win this stage.

 

While Sanchez will have to rely on his sprint to win the stage, it is the opposite for Tiago Machado. The Portuguese needs to arrive at the finish alone to win the stage and this will be a tough ask for the Katusha leader. However, Machado has found back his best legs after a few disappointing years and he claims to be in good condition from the start of the year as he was three years ago when he finished fourth overall. He did well in today’s stage which didn’t suit him and this indicates that he will be a contender.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo finds himself in a similar position. The Italian is probably one of the two best climbers in the field but like Machado he needs to get rid of his rivals before the finish. However, the tiny climber is way more explosive than most think and he has been a regular contender in the hilly Italian one-day races. As he missed most of the second half of the 2014 season due injury, his form is bit uncertain and things have become more complicated by the fact that he has a small wrist fracture. However, he is still targeting a top 5 result and by finishing well in today’s stage, he proved that he is riding well.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Gorka Izagirre went into this stage as one of two protected Movistar riders and alongside Ruben Fernandez, he has got the race off to a perfect start. The Spaniard was definitely not a favourite for today’s stage but his third place finish indicates that he is riding really well. Izagirre may not be very fast in a sprint but he is actually pretty explosive. The final climb should suit him well and he seems to be riding better than ever before.

 

Another rider that will be eager to do well is Nathan Haas. The Australian is the Cannondale-Garmin leader for this race after he finished 5th one year ago. He is definitely not a pure climber and he may suffer a bit on this kind of steep slopes. However, the distance should suit his explosiveness and if he is there at the finish, he has a very fast flat sprint. Today he tried to do a long sprint and even though he paid the price in the end, he seems to be riding well.

 

A super joker is Daniel McConnell. As a mountain biker, the Trek rider finds himself in untested territory and he clearly doesn’t like the positioning aspect of road racing. However, he is a very strong climber and should do well on this kind of ascent. His position at the bottom will be very important and so he is unlikely to finish with the very best. If he gets to the bottom safely, however, he could finish in the top 10.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Richie Porte

Other winner candidates: Cadel Evans, Tom Dumoulin

Outsiders: Luis Leon Sanchez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tiago Machado

Jokers: Gorka Izagirre, Nathan Haas, Daniel McConnell