The Tour Down Under was once known as a race for sprinters but that is certainly no longer the case. This year the fast finishers have had to wait until the fourth stage to get their chance and there is no way that they will miss the opportunity to battle it out in Victor Harbor tomorrow. However, they need to be aware of the wind which can play a role on a stage that brings the riders across the beautiful Flerurieu Peninsula.

 

The course

For the pure sprinters, the first part of the 2014 Tour Down Under will be a long wait but on the fourth day, they will finally get their chance to shine. The 149,5km stage from Unley to Victor Harbor has all the characteristics of a classical sprint stage and it is hard to imagine that the fast finishers will miss the opportunity. However, the start from the Adelaide suburb of Unley is a hard one as the first 10km consist of a tough uncategorized climb but from there, the roads are mostly flat with only some rolling hills disrupting the monotony as the riders head south towards the coastal city of Victor Harbor. The only categorized climb is the category 2 Myponga (2,2km, 4,5%) but as it comes 52,8km from the finish, it will have no major impact on the outcome.

 

After reaching the coast with 45km to go, the riders cross the Fleurieau Peninsula on largely flat roads before reaching the finish in Victor Harbor. The riders tackle a small climb inside the final 5km but it will be no major difficulty and its descent leads to the final 2,5km which are almost entirely flat. However, the final sprint is a bit technical, with the riders passing a roundabout at the flamme rouge and a 90-degree right-hand and left-hand turn coming 690 and 550m from the finish respectively. From there the road bends slightly to the right as the riders power to the finish on the coastal road.

 

The only thing that can really prevent a bunch sprint is the wind in the sea region but there has often been talk about the wind in the stage to Victor Harbor and it rarely has had any impact on the race. In the first editions of the race, the city hosted a stage finish almost every year but since 2010 the finish has only been used in 2012. Since the race's inclusion on the WorldTour, Allan Davis, Graeme Brown and Andre Greipel have all won the sprint in Victor Harbor.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Whenever a stage has finished in Victor Harbour, the team managers have carefully studied the weather forecast to check if there will be windy conditions that can potentially pose a threat. This will again be the case this year and there may be something to consider for the team leaders.

 

Rain will have fallen overnight but by the time the stage kicks off in Unley, the wet conditions will have disappeared. It will be a partly cloudy and unusually cold as the temperatures will only reach a maximum of 25 degrees in the central part of the country, dropping to 20 degrees when they reach the coast and the finish in Victor Harbor.

 

There will only be a light to moderate wind which will pick up a bit as the day goes on but it will come from a southern direction. This means that there will mostly be headwind when the riders head from Unley to the peninsula but by the time they reach the coastal town of Normanville with around 35km to go, they turn left. From there they will mostly travel in an eastern direction which means that there will be a crosswind for most of the time.

 

The favourites

The Tour Down Under's reputation as a race for sprinters clearly belongs to the past when only two of six stages can be expected to finish in a bunch sprint. Nonetheless, old habits are difficult to change and most of the teams have lined up a fast finisher with a couple of support riders for the Australian event.

 

Only Andre Greipel and Steele Von Hoff who survived the Menglers Hill on day one, have had a chance to show their fast speed in the first half of the race, and so the field is loaded with hungry sprinters who all wait for their chance to shine. Apart from the final criterium in Adelaide, tomorrow's stage is their only opportunity and there is no way that they will miss it.

 

The stage will of course be dominated by an early breakaway but Lotto Belisol have already shown that they are keen to take their responsibility, even doing an awful lot of work on stage 2 which didn't suit their sprinter Andre Greipel perfectly. They are likely to get assistance from Giant-Shimano who lost all GC hopes with Simon Geschke today and will now be fully devoted to Marcel Kittel.

 

Those two teams will combine forces to make sure that we don't see a repeat of the first stage of the Tour de San Luis where the breakaway surprisingly made it to the finish. If one adds the element of crosswind danger, the break will already be doomed from the beginning as all teams will be keen to stay near the front which automatically forces the pace to go up.

 

The wind will have the right direction to force a split but as it is not very strong, we doubt that we will see any echelons getting formed. However, we may see a few teams give it a try. Orica-GreenEDGE and Sky will both find it difficult to get rid of Cadel Evans on Willunga Hill and as Simon Gerrans is 12 seconds behind the race leader, it will be difficult for him to take the win solely by virtue of bonus seconds. They cannot allow themselves to miss any opportunities and one of those is the opportunity of crosswinds. With the likes of Mathey Hayman and Luke Durbridge on the team, they have some strong guys for that kind of racing and the same goes for Sky who can make use of the likes of Ian Stannard, Luke Rowe, Bernhard Eisel and Geraint Thomas. However, we doubt that the wind is strong enough to cause a split and the BMC team is certainly strong enough to protect their captain and so we cannot imagine another outcome than a bunch sprint.

 

Another element that could potentially come into play are the intermediate sprints. If Gerrans beats Evans in a sprint at the top of Willunga Hill, he will only reduce his time deficit by 4 seconds (provided that Evans finishes 2nd). This means that Gerrans will need to find 8 seconds elsewhere and his own real opportunity are bonus seconds. He is unlikely to make any impact on the race finishes where he will be up against the pure sprinters. This leaves the intermediate sprints as the only options.

 

Tomorrow's first sprint comes at the 25,5km mark and the final one 31,9km from the finish. It may be a good investment for Orica-GreenEDGE to make sure that things are back together at at least one of those points as Gerrans is clearly faster than Evans. This will force BMC to use their fast finishers Danilo Wyss and Rick Zabel but Gerrans proved on stage 1 that he knows how to win these intermediate sprints.

 

Regardless of all those potential scenarios, a bunch sprint appears to be the inevitable outcome. As it was the case in the People's Choice Classic, this will again be a duel between the two German sprinting giants Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel and it is hard to imagine the stage having a non-German winner.

 

The duel is an interesting one as it is one between the best lead-out train and the fastest rider. In the People's Choice Classic, Kittel again proved that he is - even much - faster than Greipel when he beat his compatriot just on the line, despite Greipel having been given the perfect lead-out. If Kittel manages to position himself well and gets a clear run to the line, he will be almost impossible to beat.

 

On the other hand, we have always claimed that Lotto Belisol have the - by far - best lead-out train in the world. The usual train of Hansen-Sieberg-Roelandts-Henderson-Greipel will be slightly modified due to Greg Henderson's absence and will now be Hansen-Sieberg-Debusschere-Roelandts-Greipel. In the opening criterium, they proved that this is no major disadvantage and they delivered their captain perfectly.

 

Kittel is also used to having a solid lead-out train at his disposal but several key elements are missing. He is still able to count on trusted lead-out man Koen De Kort and also has the fast Nikias Arndt at his side. That duo is, however, not as strong as the well-drilled Lotto train and Kittel could easily find himself ruled out due to poor positioning.

 

Compared to the opening criterium, a few factors play into the hands of Greipel. First of all the sprint comes at the end of a much longer and harder race. Greipel is clearly in splendid condition as he has overcome hard climbing and so he will be more fresh at the finish. The final small climb will also favour Greipel as Kittel could lose several positions if the pace is hard enough. On the other hand, Kittel has also been climbing solidly and he has clearly started his season in much better condition than he has done in recent year.

 

Furthermore, the technical finish suits Greipel better as it makes positioning important. He will be able to benefit from his good lead-out train to get into a good position and Kittel will only have 550m to get up to his immense speed and make up any lost ground.

 

Those aspects both speak in favour of Greipel. However, Kittel has proved that his condition is at such an advanced level and his speed is so much higher than his compatriot's that he will be our favourite to win the stage. But it will be a closely fought battle.

 

It's hard to imagine anyone beating both of the giants. The only rider who potentially has the speed to do so is Elia Viviani. The fast Italian has often proved that he is a very capable sprinter but he often struggles when it comes to positioning. When he has the kind of lead-out train he had in last year's Giro, he overcomes those problems but in Australia he is supported by a very young team. His final lead-out man Guillaume Boivin didn't excel in that discipline in his first year at Cannondale and we could easily see Vivani get boxed in and finish far down the standings. If anyone will beat the two Germans, it has to be Viviani though.

 

It will be interesting to see how Orica-GreenEDGE handles the stage. The team has a number of different options for a sprint finish. Usually, the team will support either Matthew Goss or Michael Matthews but it is not completely out of the question that Gerrans will give it a go in an attempt to pick up a few bonus seconds. However, that will be a difficult mission and we think that they will support one of their "real" sprinters.

 

While Matthews has shown good condition, Goss is clearly still not in his best form but in this kind of flat stage they would normally back their marquee sprinter who has the highest top speed. The decision may be taken on the road but we think that they will again focus on Goss who needs a confidence boost to forget his terrible 2013 season.

 

In his heydays, Goss had a top speed that made him a genuine challenger for riders like Kittel and Greipel. That is no longer the case but he has one of the best lead-out trains at his disposal. With Hayman, Matthews and lead-out man Daryl Impey all on hand, he could start his sprint from a good position. That could be what Goss needs to finally get some success.

 

Caleb Ewan impressed the entire cycling world when he finished 3rd behind the two German sprinters on Sunday. In the past three years, he has beaten some of the best sprinters in the world at the Bay Classics and so no one doubts that he has the speed to be up there. What surprised a lot of pundits was his ability to position himself on Greipel's wheel which was the preferred place for almost all sprinters.

 

He crashed on stage 2 and took it easy today as he tried to recover from his injuries. Those may still hamper him tomorrow. On stage 1 he was badly positioned when the peloton hit Menglers Hill, proving that there may also have been an element of luck in Sunday's result. Nonetheless, he is one of the fastest riders in the bunch and although a win is unlikely, he could finish on the podium.

 

Lampre-Merida have already had much success with Diego Ulissi but tomorrow their attention will switch to their sprinter Roberto Ferrari. In the opening criterium, he got swamped and finished far down the rankings. Furthermore, he is clearly nowhere near his best condition and things seem to be even worse for his capable lead-out man Davide Cimolai who climbs really well when he is at his best. However, Ferrari handles the positioning aspect really well and he is a very explosive sprinter with a solid kick. He is well-suited to the technical finish and could make it another good day for Lampre.

 

Finally, we will select out joker. Omega Pharma-Quick Step haven't had much success in the race yet and as their GC rider Jan Bakelants fell out of GC contention today, they will now fully back new signing Mark Renshaw. The Australian is usually not a strong climber but he has performed solidly on the opening days. This indicates that he is going well and he finished in the top 10 in the opening criterium despite losing the wheel of Julian Alaphilippe.

 

As a lead-out man, Renshaw is very strong in the positioning game and with Alaphilippe, Andrew Fenn and Matteo Trentin, he has one of the strongest lead-out trains at his disposal. He is unlikely to be fast enough to win the stage but a podium place is certainly within reach.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Andre Greipel, Elia Viviani

Outsiders: Matthew Goss, Caleb Ewan, Roberto Ferrari

Joker: Mark Renshaw