BMC did everything right in the first big GC battle and will now have to take the responsibility in what could be a tricky fourth stage. While the sprinters are hoping to get their first chance to sprint for the win, the combination of rolling climbs, wind and lots of attackers could again provide a surprise for the fast finishers.

 

The course

For the pure sprinters, the first part of the 2015 Tour Down Under was a tough one but they can expect to be back in the spotlight on the fourth day. As it is often the case, the fourth stage will see the riders head down to the Flerieu Peninsula just south of Adelaide where the sprinters have often had a chance to shine and it seems that this year will be no different.

 

The stage will bring the riders over 144.5km from Glenelg to Mount Barker and the first part consists of a flat run along the coast as the riders travel in a southerly direction. At the 44.2km mark, the riders will reach the summit of the only categorized climb of the day, Sellicks Hill, which is a long, gradual ascent.

 

From there, they head inland along slightly rolling hills until they reach Strathalbyn. From there, they go up a long, uncategorized rise to the second intermediate sprint in Macclesfield. The final 27.4km consist of a zigzag run to the finish in Mount Barker and apart from a few non-categorized climbs, there will be no major challenges. The final 3km are slightly descending and the line comes at the end of a long, straight road. This is the perfect scene for the sprinters who are looking forward to a big bunch kick at the end of the day.

 

The only thing that can really prevent a bunch sprint is the wind in the sea region. Very often there has been talk about the wind in stages on the Flerieu Peninsula but it has rarely had much of an impact. Last year, however, the peloton split in the similar stage and several teams are likely to try a similar move in 2015. This year they won’t be going far down the peninsula though and they will only be riding close to the sea in the first part of the stage. This may make it harder to make a difference before the riders reach Mount Barker which has never hosted a stage finish before.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today was the first really hot day in the Tour Down Under and this clearly had an impact on the performance. Hence, many riders will be relieved to learn that tomorrow should be significantly cooler and a lot more pleasant experience. After a cloudy start to the day, the sun will come out in the afternoon but the temperature will only reach a maximum of 23 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southerly direction which may pick up a bit as the day goes on. This means that the riders will have a headwind until the reach the KOM sprint and then they will face a long crosswind section. In the final third of the race, there will mainly be a tailwind but there will be a few stretches with crosswind along the way. The riders will have a cross-tailwind on the long finishing straight.

 

The favourites

Stage 3 fully lived up to the lofty expectations as Torrens Hill Road provided the expected fireworks. In the end, the headwind made it impossible to make much of a difference and Richie Porte’s many attempts didn’t really pay off. Instead, BMC made use of the tactical stalemate to make a coup and now find themselves in a perfect position ahead of the crucial Willunga stage.

 

Before they get there, however, they need to get stage 4 out of the way. The 144.5km from Glenelg and Mount Barker certainly don’t offer the chance to win the race but it is one of those days when a lot can be lost. The Flerieu Peninsula is famously known for its windy conditions and it was no surprise to see the similar stage split to pieces in 2014.

 

Even though it won’t be very windy tomorrow, the risk of echelons will set the scene for some nervous racing. After the headwind start, the riders face a long crosswind section and in the final, there are several pieces with a crosswind. It remains to be seen whether the wind will be strong enough to split the field but everyone will be on their toes.

 

The stage provides the attackers with a final opportunity to win a stage as the stage to Willunga will be decided by the climbers while the final criterium in Adelaide is destined to end in a bunch sprint. Many will still be inspired by the successful breakaway in stage 1 and they know that the final part of the stage is not as easy as it may look like.

 

Hence, we can expect another very aggressive start to the stage and after a few days when they have left it to others to control, BMC will have to be on their marks. To avoid a day of hard chasing, it would be a good idea to make sure that the early break only consists of riders that have lost a bit of time.

 

Many riders are now no longer a GC threat and this opens the door for a non-dangerous break to get clear. If that happens, the dynamics will be interesting. BMC and Sky will be happy to let the break ride away and UniSA no longer has any reason to take their share in the pace-making. Until now, Giant-Alpecin has been the only sprint team to work really hard but as their main ambition is the overall podium with Tom Dumoulin, they are unlikely to do all the work themselves.

 

IAM have proved that they are very keen to set up Heinrich Haussler for a sprint win and this is probably his best chance of the entire week. The Swiss team may join forces with Giant-Alpecin and they may also get some help from Lampre-Merida or even Movistar who rarely works very much for their sprinters. As the hard final could put Marcel Kittel under pressure, more teams will be hopeful of success and this means that there should be enough firepower to bring it back together.

 

They will be assisted by the windy conditions which will cause some nervous racing and cause the pace to go up. Furthermore, it would be no surprise to see one or more teams make an attempt to split things up. Last year Orica-GreenEDGE did that successfully and they have made it clear that they need Daryl Impey to pick up some bonus seconds. He won’t win a big bunch sprint but if the Australians can whittle down the group, he has a chance.

 

In any case, we expect a sprint finish but it remains to be seen whether everybody will still be there. The many small climbs in the finale will also take the sting out of the legs and this opens the door for a surprise.

 

On paper, Kittel is of course the big favourite but we will put our money on the in-form sprinter. Juan Jose Lobato may be best suited to the uphill sprints but he has done very well in flat sprints too. Last Sunday he was second in the People’s Choice Classic which was one for the pure sprinters.

 

This year Lobato has had his best winter training ever and he is obviously in excellent condition. The way he won stage 2 was extremely impressive and he has done very impressive sprints in the opening criterium and stage 1 too. Unlike many others, he will benefit from the many climbs in the finale which will make it hard for anyone to organize a lead-out.

 

Very often Kittel has had a hard time doing a proper sprint after some climbs in the finale and he is unlikely to have a full lead-out as Dumoulin and Simon Geschke have to keep an eye on the GC. If Kittel fails, Lobato seems to be the fastest rider in the bunch. His main problem is that he has been very poor at positioning himself and he has always had to come from very far back. This has not prevented him from doing very good sprints but he needs to overcome that problem if he wants to win. If the peloton has been whittled down a bit, he will have an easier time and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival will obviously be Kittel. In the past, Kittel has never won a stage in the Tour Down Under and he has never been in very condition in Australia. This year, however, he is clearly at another level and he easily survived Checker’s Hill in stage 1. Today he even rode strongly on the front for his teammates.

 

However, this lumpy stage could be a bit too tough for Kittel who will have to dig deep not to lose too much power on the many late climbs. Furthermore, Giant-Alpecin were very disorganized in stage 1 and if that happens again, he may use too much energy to keep position. This makes it harder for him to win the stage but as he is clearly in pretty good condition, he is an obvious winner candidate.

 

The same can be said about the in-form Heinrich Haussler. The Australian champion has been sprinting very well recently, beating Caleb Ewan in the nationals road race and overcoming poor positioning to finish well in stage 1 and the opening criterium. Unlike many others, he benefits from the lumpy profile and there is no way that the classics specialist will be caught out in the crosswind.

 

At the moment, Haussler seems to be one of the fastest riders in the peloton but he still needs to position himself a bit better. With Martin Elmiger, David Tanner, Vicente Reynes and Roger Kluge for support, however, he has lots of firepower for support and if they can position him well, he has the speed to win.

 

In stage 1, Niccolo Bonifazio won the bunch sprint for fifth and the talented Italian surprised himself one day later when he finished 8th in the tough finish in Stirling. Bonifazio has a big future ahead of him and he is knocking on the door of his first WorldTour win. He is clearly in great condition and even though there are faster riders than him in this field, his form may be enough to give him a win if he can position himself well for the sprint. With his good form, the late climbs won’t be a problem.

 

As usual, Etixx-QuickStep have been very visible in the sprint finales and even though they don’t have a real sprint team here, they have been doing really well. On paper, they have two opportunities and it remains to be seen which card they decides to play.

 

In stage 1, they backed Gianni Meersman for the sprint and the Belgian did well by taking second in the bunch sprint behind Bonifazio. If the stage turns out to be a hard one, it is perfectly suited to him and he will be the man to support. There are definitely faster riders than Meersman but he is excellent at position in himself and if his team gives him a good lead-out at the end of a hard race, he will be in contention.

 

If the race becomes less hard, Mark Renshaw may get his chance. The Australian is better suited to the downhill finish than Meersman and he is a faster finisher than his Belgian teammate. Until now, he may have played the support role but he seems to be riding well and has the advantage of having trained in good weather in Australia. If Meersman can give him a solid lead-out, he has the speed to win this stage.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Daryl Impey is no pure sprinter but he is very fast in a sprint from a small group. Orica-GreenEDGE wants him to pick up a few bonus seconds and win a stage and their only real chance is tomorrow’s stage. The Australians have a very strong team and they will try to make the race hard on the climbs and in the wind. If they can whittle down the group, they have the firepower to give Impey a solid lead-out and then he could take a surprise win.

 

Steele Von Hoff is another in-form Australian who is keen to prove that he deserves to return to the WorldTour level. He may not have had much success yet but he is clearly riding well as he proved in the Australian championships. Usually, he is not very good at positioning himself and he can’t count on a well-drilled lead-out. If the group is a bit smaller, however, things become a bit easier and then he has the speed to win.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Juan Jose Lobato

Other winner candidates: Marcel Kittel, Heinrich Haussler

Outsiders: Niccolo Bonifazio, Gianni Meersman, Mark Renshaw

Jokers: Daryl Impey, Steele von Hoff