Today Simon Gerrans proved that he is not yet beaten in the battle for overall glory in the Tour Down Under and everything will now come down to the big showdown on the Willunga Hill tomorrow. For the third year in a row, the race's queen stage ends at the summit of 3km climb with its average gradient of 7,5% and with Gerrans having never finished outside the top 2 on this stage, a big battle between the Australian champion and Cadel Evans is in store.

 

The course

As usual, Saturday is the day of the queen stage, with the general classification battle coming down to the famed Willunga Hill. While the climb has featured on the route every year since 2002, the organizers decided to add an extra passage of its steep slopes in 2010, and in 2012 the stage finish was even moved to the top of the climb. This will again be the case for this year's queen stage which is completely identical to the one that decided the past two editions of the race.

 

The 151,5km stage starts in McLaren Vale and from there, the riders start a 39,7km lap that brings them to the coast and back to the starting city. The circuit will be tackled three times and the riders will even start a fourth lap. Passing through the city of Willunga, the peloton will, however, turn left and head up the famed climb for the first time. After the KOM sprint, they stay at a plateau for around 10km before tackling the fast descent back onto the original circuit. From there, they head back to Willunga to start the second and final ascent of the climb, with the final circuit having a length of 22,4km.

 

The category 1 climb is 3,0km long and has an average gradient of 7,5%. It is hardest at the bottom, with the gradient staying between 7,9% and 9,1% for the first 1,3km. From there, the gradient drops a bit and in the final 1,2km, it stays between 5,5% and 6,6%. The favourites usually keep their powder dry for the final sprint up the climb but the final 30km have often been very aggressive, with several attacks being launched during the first passage. However, the teams of the favourites have managed to bring things back together for a final sprint on both previous occasions, with Alejandro Valverde narrowly edging out Simon Gerrans in 2012 and the Australian getting his revenge by beating Tom-Jelte Slagter one year later. The uphill sprint suits the true puncheurs and Ardennes specialists more than the climbers but the gaps will not be very big.

 

Last year 29 riders finished within a minute of the winner and this means that bonus seconds on both this and the previous stages can come into play. There is, however, no doubt that the Willunga stage will the most anticipated stage of the entire race and you won't win the Tour Down Under if you don't end up near the front on this stage.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders experienced unusually cold conditions for a Tour Down Under stage and it will be even colder tomorrow. Unlike today, the riders can expect plenty of sunshine but the temperatures are expected to stay below the 20-degree mark for the entire stage. Such temperatures are almost unheard of in a race that often takes place in sizzling heat.

 

Today the wind played a very important role and tomorrow it will be even windier. It comes from a south eastern direction which means that there will be plenty of tailwind, crosswind and headwind sections on the opening circuit that will be tackled three times. It is not unlikely that we may see a bit of action in the early part of the stage as riders try to again benefit from those conditions.

 

More importantly, the riders will have a direct headwind on the Willunga Hill and this could have a huge impact of the stage. It will be much harder to make a difference in such conditions and the race could be a bit less selective that it has been in the past. After the first passage of the climb, the riders turn into a section with crosswind, leading to a section with cross-tailwind. There will be a cross-headwind on the run-in to the climb.

 

The favourites

When he went to bed on Thursday, Simon Gerrans could be forgiven for being on the verge of giving up after seeing the display of power from Cadel Evans on the Corkscrew climb but the 2006 and 2012 winner of the race proved today that he is not yet beaten and still intent on taking a record-breaking third win in the event. Having managed to reduce the deficit to just 7 seconds, he can now again realistically dream about the overall victory.

 

The race is expected to come down to a battle of seconds between Gerrans and Cadel Evans, with the former being the fastest finisher and the latter the strongest climber. Today the development of the stage was totally controlled by the intermediate sprints and we could again see the bonus seconds on the course come into play tomorrow.

 

In past editions the opening laps on the circuit haven't played a huge role as all have been content to wait for the final battle up Willunga Hill. There is a chance that this will change tomorrow as Orica-GreenEDGE may be keen to bring the bonus seconds into play.

 

The first sprint comes at the 63,4km mark and as there are still 88,1km to go from there, it is unlikely that the Australian team will target that one. The final one comes 48,1km from the finish and we may see the team again try to bring things back together to allow Gerrans the chance to take another 3 seconds. On both stages 1 and 4 he has proved that he knows how to do well in these sprints and as the sprinters have no real interest in the points, he will only be challenged by his GC rivals. BMC may try to put him up against fast finishers like Rick Zabel and Danilo Wyss but until that strategy has not brought much success.

 

There is no certainty that Orica-GreenEDGE will go all out to set it up for the final intermediate sprint. While it will be all up to Gerrans the final time up Willunga Hill, the team needs firepower to keep things under control on the first passage and on the section in between those two passages. They cannot allow a breakaway to run away with the bonus seconds and the number one priority must be to make sure that the stage win is still up for grabs for the overall contenders. Bonus seconds are also on offer in the final stage and it may be a better strategy to focus their efforts on the intermediate sprints on the final day.

 

Today Orica-GreenEDGE proved that their team is really strong and although we will see a lot of attacks on the first passage of the climb, it is almost guaranteed that the Australian team will make the stage win an affair for the GC contenders. Cadel Evans, Richie Porte and Gerrans have proved that they are the strongest climbers in the race and it is hard to imagine that the stage win will not go to one of those three riders.

 

On the Corkscrew climb, Evans rode away from everybody else but the Willunga Hill is a different kind of climb. It lacks those steep sections that allowed the BMC captain to drop Gerrans and Porte and it will be harder for him to put them into difficulty on this kind of climb. Furthermore, the hardest sections come right at the bottom of the climb while the final half is much easier with gradients between 5,5% and 6,6%. Finally, the headwind will make it much harder to make a difference.

 

Those elements all favour Gerrans who must be the favourite to win on this kind of climb. In 2012 he was only narrowly edged out by Alejandro Valverde in the sprint and last year he held off Slagter to win the stage. Having never finished outside the top 2 on this stage, Gerrans is perfectly suited to the final climb.

 

Gerrans can allow himself to play it defensively and just stay on Evans' wheel. If it comes down to a sprint, he will be almost impossible to beat. If Evans finishes 2nd in the same time, however, he will still need to make up 3 seconds on the race leader. He needs to find those in the intermediate sprints in the last two stages.

 

The only rider who can really beat Gerrans in this kind of finish is Evans. The BMC leader was clearly the strongest on Thursday and it is not impossible that he will again manage to drop everybody else on the Willunga Hill. For this to happen, he will need to go hard on the steep sections right from the bottom and then try to keep his advantage all the way to the finish.

 

However, Evans is also a rather fast finisher in uphill sprints as he most recently proved in Stirling on stage 2. It will be hard for him to beat Gerrans in a final dash to the line but if it comes down to a sprint between the 3-5 best climbers in the race, he will have a very good chance of finishing 2nd.

 

The rider that could potentially destroy the party for Evans and Gerrans is Diego Ulissi. The final climb suits him perfectly and he has a very fast sprint at the end as he proved with his win in Stirling. On the Corkscrew climb he was not even close to staying with the best and was clearly in severe difficulty. This suggests that he is still far from his best condition but the lighter gradients and the headwind will be in his favour. If he manages to stay with the best, he will again have a chance of beating Gerrans in the sprint. However, he could also be the rider that finishes in 2nd between Gerrans and Evans, meaning that Gerrans will gain 6 instead of 4 seconds on Evans.

 

On the Corkscrew Richie Porte was the one who started  the action when his acceleration could only be matched by Evans. However, the Sky leader faded a bit and appeared not to be as strong as Evans and Gerrans. Having been unable to get rid of his rivals on the steeper Corkscrew, it will be impossible for him to do so on the easier Willunga climb. At the same time, he will be more focused on the podium as he has already given up on the overall win and he will have his eyes more on riders like Ulissi and Nathan Haas than he will have on Gerrans, Evans and the stage win.

 

On the Corkscrew, the best of the rest behind the magnificent Australian trio was clearly Robert Gesink who just lacked the last little bit to go with Gerrans when he soloed across to Porte. The lanky Dutchman is clearly riding well and even though he is more of a pure climber, history shows that he performs well on short ones as well and even has a decent sprint. It is hard to see how Gesink will win the stage but he could easily end up on the podium.

 

When Garmin-Sharp arrived in Adelaide, their intention was to ride for Rohan Dennis but the youngster has been unable to live up to expectations. Instead, Nathan Haas has taken over the captaincy role and has been riding much better than anticipated. Haas is now on the verge of his major breakthrough and will have his eyes firmly on a possible podium place.

 

Haas is not as strong on the climbs as Evans, Gerrans and Porte but with the headwind he could keep up with them. He is a very fast finisher as he proved today when he beat Gerrans in the final intermediate sprint after already having finished 3rd in the first one and he was the rider who won the sprint for 2nd behind Evans on Thursday. He could have featured high in the standings in Stirling as well but chose to make an early attack as the team still had their eyes on Dennis and sprinter Steele Von Hoff. If Haas makes it to the finish with the best, he will be a danger man.

 

Finally, we will select our joker. Egor Silin has not attracted much attention so far in the Tour Down Under but the Russian who is riding his first year with Katusha, is going extremely well. When Gerrans bridged across to Evans on the Corkscrew, Silin was just behind on the wheel of Gesink and that duo briefly managed to open a gap to their rivals behind them. Silin has long proved that he has the potential to excel in hard races like tomorrow's but has been very inconsistent and been partly blocked by his role at Astana. As a Russian rider on Katusha, he will have more freedom and he will be eager to prove his worth right from the beginning with another strong ride tomorrow.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Other winner candidates: Cadel Evans, Diego Ulissi

Outsiders: Richie Porte, Nathan Haas, Robert Gesink

Outsider: Egor Silin