The GC riders all got safely through a very stressful and dangerous day and they are now ready for the big showdown on Willunga Hill. The famous climb will determine the final result of the first WorldTour race of the year and Richie Porte will do his utmost to try to break BMC’s stranglehold on the race.

 

The course

As usual, Saturday is the day of the queen stage, with the general classification battle coming down to the famous Willunga Hill. While the climb has featured on the route every year since 2002, the organizers decided to add an extra passage of its steep slopes in 2010, and in 2012 the stage finish was even moved to the top of the climb. This will again be the case for this year's queen stage which is completely identical to the one that decided the past three editions of the race.

 

The 151.5km stage starts in McLaren Vale and from there, the riders start a 39.7km lap that brings them to the coast and back to the starting city. The circuit will be tackled three times and the riders will even start a fourth lap. Passing through the city of Willunga, the peloton will, however, turn left and head up the famed climb for the first time. After the KOM sprint, they stay at a plateau for around 10km before tackling the fast descent back onto the original circuit. From there, they head back to Willunga to start the second and final ascent of the climb, with the final circuit having a length of 22.4km.

 

The category 1 climb is 3.0km long and has an average gradient of 7.5%. It is hardest at the bottom, with the gradient staying between 7.9% and 9.1% for the first 1.3km. From then, the gradient drops a bit and in the final 1.2km, it stays between 5.5% and 6.6%.

 

The first part of the stage is usually not too exciting but sometimes the wind has played a role. The favourites usually keep their powder dry for the final sprint up the climb but the final 30km have often been very aggressive, with several attacks being launched during the first passage. However, the teams of the favourites have always managed to bring things back together for a final sprint on the previous occasions, with Alejandro Valverde narrowly edging out Simon Gerrans in 2012, the Australian getting his revenge by beating Tom-Jelte Slagter one year later and Richie Porte dropping everybody to win last year’s stage. The uphill sprint suits the true puncheurs and Ardennes specialists more than the climbers and the gaps are never very big.

 

 

 

 

The weather

This year’s edition of the Tour Down Under has been unusually cold, with only Thursday’s stage providing a slight chase of the heat that usually dominates the race. Tomorrow will be the coldest day yet as the temperature in Willunga will only reach a maximum of 21 degrees. However, there should be plenty of sunshine, with only a few clouds to give some shelter.

 

The wind has often played a role in this stage and this could again be the case in 2015. There will be a pretty strong wind from a westerly direction and it will pick up as the day goes on. This means that the riders will have lots of crosswind sections on the opening circuit, most notably when they travel along the coast. Importantly, there will be a cross-tailwind on Willunga Hill and on the subsequent plateau before the riders turn into a cross-headwind and headwind for the descent. There will again be a crosswind in the run-in to the bottom of the climb.

 

The favourites

Today was a day to survive for the GC riders and apart from Richie Porte and George Bennett who both hit the deck – albeit without any major consequences – they all got through the carnage unscathed. There’s now only one opportunity left to make a difference in the first WorldTour race of the year but the queen stage to the top of Willunga Hill is the one that has the potential to create the biggest differences.

 

All is set for a big battle on the final climb whose length makes it much better suited to the climbers than the short, steep ascent of Torrens Hill Road in stage 3. Furthermore, the stage in general is a lot harder, with two passages of the climb to tire out the legs, and this means that we can expect bigger time gaps. On the other hand, this race has always been and will always be one about seconds and we won’t see large differences in this stage either.

 

On paper, it may look like the first part of the stage is all a boring build-up to the big showdown but don’t be fooled by the easy profile. This area is very windy and tomorrow the riders will have to face very windy conditions. The long crosswind section along the coast which the riders will tackle three times, may be used to split things up already before they get to the climbing and the crosswind on the run-in to the ascent could make more damage than the actual climb.

 

This will make for some very nervous and fast racing and this suits Richie Porte really well. The Sky leader has done nothing to hide that he wants to make the race as hard as possible and the windy conditions will put contribute to that. On paper, Cadel Evans also wants the race to be as hard as possible but as he and Rohan Dennis are mainly in defence mode, they will probably mainly play a controlling role.

 

Team tactics will be very important in the first part of the race and we can expect another very fast opening phase with lots of attacks. Today Sky sent a rider in the early break and they may have similar plans tomorrow as they again want to make BMC work hard right from the beginning. The race leader’s team had to do a lot of work to control the first part of today’s stage and they will again have to be on their toes tomorrow.

 

When the break has been formed, it will be left to BMC to keep it under control. If it is only made up of non-dangerous riders, however, they may be pleased to see it stay away to take away the bonus seconds. Porte desperately needs the bonifications and this means that most of the chase work could be left to Sky.

 

However, the windy conditions may provoke some action and it would be no surprise to see Orica-GreenEDGE try to split things. Sky have a strong classics roster and they may give it a try too. Even BMC have some big engines that are suited to this kind of racing and they may also try to split things. There is definitely no guarantee that an intact peloton will reach the climb for the first passage.

 

Furthermore, the bonus seconds at the intermediate sprints may come into play. Daryl Impey knows that he is unlikely to match the best climbers in this finale and so Orica-GreenEDGE may repeat their successful tactic from today when they brought things back together for the first intermediate sprint.

 

Going into the climb, it will be a huge battle for position as positioning is key on such a short ascent. As soon as they hit the lower slopes, we can expect Sky to ride tempo on the front with strong climbers like Peter Kennaugh and Geraint Thomas to make the race as hard as possible. The peloton will be significantly whittled down and it will be very important to be close to the front by the time the crest the summit. Last year Orica-GreenEDGE split the field in the subsequent crosswind section at a time when everyone is at their limit and tomorrow it will probably be more of the same.

 

Hence, the peloton is likely to be significantly reduced by the time the riders hit the climb for the final time. The early break will have no chance as Sky want the bonus seconds to come into play and so it will all come down to the final battle on the steep slopes.

 

The climb is less steep than the one in stage 3 but it is a bit longer. This doesn’t change the fact that it is better suited to punchy Ardennes specialists than real climbers but the stage race specialists should find it more to their liking. More importantly, there will be a tailwind which will make it much easier to make a difference.

 

We had Richie Porte as our favourite in stage 3 and the Australian desperately tried to make a difference on the short climb at the end. Despite launching two attacks, he was unable to get rid of Cadel Evans, Domenico Pozzovivo and Tom Dumoulin and he ended the stage as the big loser as he saw Rohan Dennis ride away with the stage win and Evans gain two second plus bonifications in the sprint.

 

Two factors may have contributed to the result. First of all there was a headwind on the climb, with Simon Geschke telling radsport-news.com that he was surprised how hard it was to ride on the front. Secondly, the short, steep climb didn’t suit Porte at all.

 

Tomorrow’s longer climb suits Porte a lot better and this has always been the stage that he has aimed for. Last year he took a hugely dominant win on Willunga Hill and he knows how to tackle this ascent. He will definitely try a similar tactic, using his team to make the race hard before making his own attack on the steep section at the bottom.

 

Whether it will be enough for him to drop Evans remains to be seen but we will again put our money on Porte. Last year he won the stage and this year he claims to be much stronger. The way he crushed an in-form Rohan Dennis on the climbs in the second hard of the national time trial championships speaks volumes about his climbing form and he is skinnier than he has been in the past. With a tailwind to push him up the climb, it all comes down to climbing strength and this makes Porte the favourite to win.

 

Of course Cadel Evans will be his biggest rival. The BMC leader seemed to be at ease when he responded to Porte’s attacks in Paracombe and never gave an inch to his key rival. For Evans, this is the final big goal of his career and there is no doubt that he is close to being at 100% of his capabilities.

 

Last year he took a beating on this climb when he lost the leader’s jersey and saw Porte take the stage win. Porte claims to be a lot stronger this year but the same is likely to be the case for Evans. The BMC leader has the advantage of being in pole position and he doesn’t have to do any attacking himself. He can just be content with following the Sky rider and if they arrive at the top together, Evans will be the big favourite to win the uphill sprint.

 

In stage 3, the Porte and Evans never get rid of Tom Dumoulin who again confirmed his versatile talents. At some points, he appeared to be on his limit but he stayed it contact with the in-form Australians. Tomorrow’s less steep climb should suit the big Dutchman a lot better and this makes him a danger man.

 

Dumoulin knows that he is unlikely to ride away from Evans and Porte and he will probably go into the stage with a conservative mindset. His main goal is to defend his spot on the podium and for that, it will be enough to stay with the best. Furthermore, Dumoulin is very fast in an uphill sprint and he is the only one who has a chance of beating Evans in an uphill dash to the line.

 

Rohan Dennis came back from a poor position at the bottom of the climb to win the Paracombe stage and now finds himself in a surprise position as race leader. Tomorrow he faces another big test and it is now time for him to show how well is really climbing. In stage 3, he wasn’t with Dumoulin, Pozzovivo, Porte and Evans but that was more due to his poor position as he started the climb near the back of the ascent. When Michael Rogers and Gorka Izagirre had paced him back to the front, he apparently had a lot of energy left as he launched the race-winning move immediately after making the junction.

 

This means that it is hard to know whether Dennis could have stayed with the best but there is a solid chance he could. Tomorrow the peloton is likely to be a lot smaller at the bottom and this means that he will probably be a lot better positioned. Furthermore, he and Evans will be able to play a 1-2 tactic and even though they don’t have to attack, riding aggressively may be a way to put Porte under pressure. If they decide to attack the Sky leader, Dennis could again ride away with a stage win.

 

Yesterday Domenico Pozzovivo proved that he is back in form after his horrific crash last summer and he had no trouble staying with the best on Torrens Hill Road. In fact, he even contributed to the pace-setting and was the first to react to Dennis’ attack. However, he didn’t seem to be at the same level as Evans and Porte and this less steep climb may not suit him too well. Furthermore, he is not very well suited to riding in the crosswinds and he may even get dropped before they reach the climb. If he is there, however, he may be the one to capitalize from a tactical stalemate to ride away with the win.

 

We weren’t too impressed by Michael Rogers’ performance in the early part of this race but yesterday he bounced back with a great showing. Even though he was unable to follow the best on the climb, he was the one to close the final bit of the gap and he still had enough left to do a decent sprint. This longer, less steep climb should suit him a lot better and he will also benefit from a more versatile stage that could include a bit of crosswinds. For him to win the stage, the race has to be pretty tactical but with his fast sprint and strong race tactics, the Tinkoff-Saxo rider may create a surprise.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Jack Haig may not be a WorldTour rider but the young Australian was one of the strongest in yesterday’s stage. When Simon Geschke whittled down the group to five riders, he was the first to rejoin the best and he ended the stage in the Porte group. This longer climb should suit him a lot better. His main challenge will be not to get dropped in the crosswinds and save enough energy for the final. If he does, he should do another good ride.

 

With Gorka Izagirre and Ruben Fernandez, Movistar have a very strong two-pronged attack. Yesterday it was Izagirre who did all the work to bring the Dennis group back up to the leaders but for some reason, he completely exploded on the top. However, his third place in stage 2 suggests that he is in very good condition and if he can gauge his effort a bit better, he should be able to finish close to the best.

 

The same can be said for Fernandez who has had a hard time, living up to his lofty promises from the 2013 Tour de l’Avenir. Having joined the WorldTour, he should take another step forward and he is usually very good in the early part of the season. This climb should suit him better and he should again be up there.

 

George Bennett rode strongly in the New Zealand Championships but made the mistake of going too fast on the lower slopes yesterday. Tomorrow he will have learned from that mistake and the longer climb suits him a lot better. His main challenge will be to survive the crosswinds as he hates the positioning fight but he definitely has the legs to put in a good ride up the climb.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Richie Porte

Other winner candidates: Cadel Evans, Tom Dumoulin

Outsiders: Rohan Dennis, Domenico Pozzovivo, Michael Rogers

Jokers: Jack Haig, Gorka Izagirre, Ruben Fernandez, George Bennett