As always the Tour Down Under comes to an end with a fast criterium in the city of Adelaide where the big sprinters are expected to get what will be their only chance to fight it out in a big bunch sprint. With the GC again being close, the bonus seconds at the intermediate sprints could again come into play but Cadel Evans will have to come up with a good plan to wrestle the jersey off Simon Gerrans' shoulders on the final day.

 

The course

The end of the race has always been inspired by the Tour de France, with the final stage being a criterium held in downtown Adelaide. It is, however, time for a change as a new 4,75km circuit has been created for this year's final stage of the race. While the old course had a (very) small climb that offered the chance to hand out a few more KOM points before the end of the race, the new circuit is completely flat. With 11 sharp turns and a number of sweeping bends, it is rather technical and will test the riders' ability to make constant accelerations during the 18 laps that make up the 85,5km stage. Two sharp turns come in quick succession inside the final kilometre and will make for a technical sprint.

 

The sprinters will have few opportunities in this year's Tour Down Under and so nothing will prevent a big bunch sprint to end the 85.5km stage. However, the GC has often been very close going into the final stage and the bonus seconds have often come into play. While the overall contenders are unlikely to have their say in the final sprint, the two intermediate sprints which come at the end of the 6th and 12th lap respectively, could play a crucial role in the battle for the win.

 

Since the inclusion in the WorldTour, Francesco Chicchi, Chris Sutton and Ben Swift have all won the sprint but the dominant figure has been Andre Greipel who won the stage in 2008, 2012 and 2013. The German will be eager to make it three in a row when the 2014 edition of Australia's biggest race comes to a conclusion on Australia Day.

 

 

 

The weather

After a rather cold week, Adelaide is preparing itself for another hot week and they will get the first taste of the increased temperatures tomorrow. Sunday will be a very sunny day with no clouds and the temperatures are expected to reach a maximum of 30 degrees by the time the criterium comes to an end.

 

After two windy days on the Fleurieu Peninsula, there will only be a light wind which will decrease as the day goes on. It will mainly come from a northern direction which means that there will mostly be a crosswind on the fast circuit. This will also be the case for the sprint as there will only be a very short section with a headwind in between the two corners that are located inside the final kilometre.

 

The favourites

When the sprinters lined up for the Tour Down Under which was once known as a sprinters race, they found themselves in the unusual situation that they could only expect to show off their fast speed on two occasions. The crosswinds denied most of them the opportunity yesterday and so there is only one chance left: tomorrow's flat criterium in Adelaide.

 

The stage may be held on a new circuit but it is completely unthinkable that there will not be a bunch sprint at the end. This time the wind will not come into play and the short, technical stage is perfectly suited to continue the tradition of ending the race with a big battle between the fastest sprinters.

 

The responsibility to bring things back together for the sprint will of course fall onto the shoulders of Lotto Belisol and Giant-Shimano who both have one of the three sprinting giants in their line-ups. The Belgian team did a lot of work on stages 2 and 4 to set up Andre Greipel for the win and are never afraid of doing their fair share of the work. They may have lost Olivier Kaisen but expect to see young Stig Broeckx spend lots of time on the front on the peloton. A few minutes before Orica-GreenEDGE's acceleration in the wind yesterday, Giant-Shimano had asked Tom Peterson to start the chase and they will be glad to again contribute to the early pace-setting.

 

With a sprint finish the guaranteed outcome, we should be in for the usual break-chase-catch-sprint scenario. As it has been the case in past editions of the race, things may be a little different here as the GC is still rather close and there are two intermediate sprints with bonus seconds on offer.

 

Had Cadel Evans still been in the lead, there is little doubt that Orica-GreenEDGE would have kept things together for Simon Gerrans to score a few seconds. Evans only trails Gerrans by one tiny second but he has no chance in a sprint against his faster compatriot. After today's stage, Evans almost admitted defeat and it is unlikely that BMC will do much to prevent Gerrans from winning the race.

 

In fact, it could be counterproductive for the American team if things are back together for the intermediate sprints. Diego Ulissi is in 3rd and is only 4 seconds behind Evans on GC. He is a rather fast finisher who scored a few seconds on stage 4 and Evans may even risk losing his 2nd place if the bunch gets to contest the intermediate sprints.

 

Hence, we expect the intermediate sprint points to be gobbled up by the early escapees and the real excitement will be focused on the final sprint. Again it is expected to be a big showdown between the two German sprinters Kittel and Greipel and it is hard to imagine that the winner will not be one of those two riders.

 

The two sprinters have only had the chance to go up against each other once, in the People's Choice Classic which preceded the actual WorldTour race. On that occasion, Lotto Belisol again proved that they have the - by far - best lead-out train in the world and they delivered their captain perfectly.

 

However, Kittel also showed that he is still quite a bit faster than his compatriot. Despite starting his sprint from far behind, his burst of speed was so impressive that he managed to come around Greipel just before the line.

 

Last year Kittel didn't start his season well but in 2014 he appears to be in much better shape. Compared to his usual standards, he has been climbing solidly. On the other hand, Greipel has again proved that he is in excellent shape right from the beginning of the year, beginning one of only very few sprinters to survive Menglers Hill on day one and even finishing 54th on Willunga Hill today.

 

The shorter and flatter race will certainly suit Kittel who will arrive rather fresh at the line while Greipel would have preferred a harder race that could take the sting out of Kittel's legs. As Greipel doesn't have the speed to beat Kittel, he will need to rely on his main asset: his lead-out train.

 

The final corner comes rather close to the finish line, meaning that positioning will be very important as there will be very little time to make up any lost ground after starting the sprint. Lotto Belisol may be missing Greg Henderson who is usually the final lead-out man for Greipel but the combination Hansen-Sieberg-Debusschere-Roelandts-Greipel has worked exceptionally well so far. It would be a huge surprise not to see them string things out on the front of the peloton inside the final 2km and Greipel is very likely to enter the final corner in the best possible position.

 

Kittel will have very little time to get up to speed and get closer to Greipel. Usually, Argos-Shimano have a  rather good train but most of it is absent from this race. He can still rely on lead-out man Koen De Kort and fast finisher Nikias Arndt but there is a big risk that he will be forced to start his sprint from too far back. The shorter finishing straight means that Greipel must be the favourite to win the race.

 

It is almost impossible to imagine that the winner will not be either Kittel or Greipel but there are several other strong sprinters in the race. The only lead-out train that is likely to be able to match Lotto's is Orica-GreenEDGE's. Until now, the team has been fully devoted to Gerrans' GC campaign but if the race leader is safe at the end of the race, one of the team's two sprinters is likely to get their chance.

 

The team has to decide whether to support Matthew Goss or Michael Matthews but in a flat, fast sprint like this one, we will expect them to put their faith in the former. Goss had a terrible 2013 season and needs a confidence boost and a good performance tomorrow could be just that. He is not nearly as fast as Kittel and Greipel but with Mathew Hayman, Matthews and final lead-out man Daryl Impey, he has a very strong team at his disposal. If they can position him well, he could be up there battling with Greipel and Kittel.

 

In addition to Greipel, Elia Viviani was one of only a few select sprinters to survive the crosswinds in stage 4 but he only had Cameron Wurf left for support. This meant that he had to fend for himself in the finale and started his sprint from very far back. Nonetheless, he produced a fantastic burst of speed to pass several riders near the end and ended 3rd behind the Lotto duo of Greipel and Jurgen Roelandts.

 

Viviani is probably the only sprinter who has the top speed to battle Greipel and Kittel but he is not very strong in the battle for position. His final lead-out man Guillaume Boivin hasn't been impressive in this difficult role and Viviani has often had to be content with a minor place due to poor positioning. This could again be the case tomorrow but if he gets a clear run to the line, he will be a danger man.

 

Lampre-Merida has mostly been devoted to Ulissi but tomorrow it is time for their sprinter Roberto Ferrari to give it a go. The Italian is clearly not in his best shape at the moment but in a fast criterium, it may not be too much of a problem. With Davide Cimolai for support, he has a solid team at his disposal and he handles the positioning aspect extremely well. His acceleration is very good which makes him perfectly suited to tomorrow's technical sprint.

 

Caleb Ewan surprised the world in the People's Choice Classic when he finished 3rd behind Kittel and Greipel. Much was expected from the Australian U23 champion in the Tour Down Under but a crash on stage 2 has left him recovering from his injuries. He is still very sore and this could hamper him tomorrow.

 

However, Ewan has an impressive top speed and he handled the positioning surprisingly well last Sunday when he started his sprint from Greipel's wheel. Being one of the fastest sprinters in the race, he has a chance of again making it onto the podium.

 

Finally, we will select our joker. Mark Renshaw is not nearly as fast as the pure sprinters and his decision to go back to a lead-out role reflects this aspect. However, he is the team's sprinter for the Tour Down Under and did well in the opening criterium. His climbing suggests that his form is already at a high level and as lead-out man, he is very strong when it comes to finding the right position. With Andrew Fenn, Julian Alaphilippe and Matteo Trentin for support, he has one of the best teams at his disposal. In a technical sprint like this one, positioning is the key and this will favour the fast Australian.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Andre Greipel

Other winner candidates: Marcel Kittel, Matthew Goss

Outsiders: Elia Viviani, Roberto Ferrari, Caleb Ewan

Joker: Mark Renshaw