The battle between Richie Porte and Rohan Dennis may be close but unless disaster struck, there is no chance that the race lead will change hands on the final day of the Tour Down Under. The bonus seconds may still come into play in the battle for the minor positions but most of all the final day is a chance for the pure sprinters to show their speed on the flat, fast circuit in Adelaide.

 

The course

The end of the race has always been inspired by the Tour de France, with the final stage being a criterium held in downtown Adelaide. After several years with the same circuit, however, it was time for a change last year when the organizers introduced a new 4.75km route. While the old course had a (very) small climb that offered the chance to hand out a few more KOM points before the end of the race, the new circuit was completely flat and was pretty technical.

 

This year the organizers have again decided to reshape the final stage as they have introduced a new 4.5km circuit. Unlike last year’s course, it is pretty non-technical as the riders go down a long, straight road before they turn around and hit the area around the Adelaide Golf Club. Here they go up the very small climb of Montefiore Hill but it will do nothing to split the field. On the 10th and 15th lap, however, there will be KOM points on offer. After a lap of a small circuit in the park, the riders reach the finishing straight which is likely to be the scene of an excellent bunch sprint. The riders will do 20 laps for a total distance of 90km and there will be bonus seconds on offer in the intermediate sprints at the end of the 8th and 12th laps.

 

Since the inclusion in the WorldTour, Francesco Chicchi, Chris Sutton and Ben Swift have all won the sprint but the dominant figure has been Andre Greipel who won the stage in 2008, 2012, 2013 and 2014. It won’t be four in a row though as the German is absent from this year’s race, meaning that a new king of Adelaide will be crowned the day before Australia Day.

 

 

The weather

As a fitting end to what has been an unusually cold edition of the Tour Down Under, the final stage will again take place in conditions that are far from the extreme heat that has often characterized the race. There will be bright sunshine for the race but the temperature will reach a maximum of only 20 degrees.

 

It will be another pretty windy day as there will be a strong wind from a southwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind on the first straight and then a cross-tailwind for the long stretch that leads to the top of the climb. Finally, they will again turn into a cross-headwind for the sprint.

 

The favourites

Many national tours end with a flat stage that takes in a few laps of a flat circuit in a major city. The Tour Down Under is no exception and in a flat circuit race, it is very hard to create any time differences, meaning that the final general classification is usually decided by this point.

 

Unlike the grand tours, however, the Tour Down Under is not one of those races where it is an unwritten rule that changes to the GC can’t occur in the final stage. As it is the case also in 2015, the GC has often been very close at this point and with bonus seconds at both the finish and the intermediate sprints, the GC could still change.

 

Today Richie Porte produced another storming ride up Willunga Hill to take a fantastic solo win but the Brit made a tactical mistake by launching his attack too late. He managed to make Rohan Dennis crack with 400m to go but it was too late for him to gain the 11 seconds he needed to take the lead. Meanwhile, Dennis produced another fantastic performance, proving that his great ride on stage 3 was not just a result of strong team tactics.

 

Porte now finds himself only 2 seconds behind Dennis in the overall standings but unless disaster strikes for Dennis or a split occurs in the sprint, there is no way the Sky leader will be able to take back that time. None of them will have a chance in the final sprint where the sprinters will be in the spotlight and they won’t have much of a chance in the intermediate sprints either where fellow GC riders Daryl Impey and Tom Dumoulin are faster. If it came to a sprint between those two riders, Dennis would definitely be the fastest and so there is no reason for Sky and Porte to try to set their captain up for the intermediate sprints. The only thing he can do is to be well-positioned in the finale but Dennis will know how to stay glued to his wheel to avoid any splits.

 

This doesn’t mean that the bonus seconds cannot come into play. Dumoulin is just 2 seconds behind Cadel Evans in the overall standings and may be keen to take back the podium spot he lost today. Even though Evans is a fast rider, Dumoulin is usually faster and the Dutchman will definitely have a chance of taking back those seconds.

 

However, it will require Giant-Alpecin to bring things back together for the two intermediate sprints and they also have to make sure that Marcel Kittel has a chance to win the stage. It will be interesting to see whether they will focus on Dumoulin’s GC ambitions more than Kittel’s chance to win the stage.

 

They may have an ally in Orica-GreenEDGE. In stage 4, the Australian team did a great job by setting Daryl Impey up for three bonus seconds in an intermediate sprint and on paper, the South African is the fastest of the two GC riders. Even if he wins both sprints, however, he will still be missing one second to pass Domenico Pozzovivo in the overall standings and so he also needs to be in the top 3 in the final sprint. This means that Orica-GreenEDGE may want to focus everything on the final battle and leave it to the escapees to pick up the bonus seconds. If it comes to a sprint between the GC riders, we will probably see Samuel Dumoulin, Silvan Dillier and Danilo Wyss mix it up in the sprints to take away the bonus seconds on behalf of their leaders Pozzovivo and Evans respectively.

 

The final criterium is usually very fast and we can expect a very fast start to the stage with lots of attacks. Only the GC riders can potentially threaten Jack Bobridge in the mountains competition and this means that the Australian is not forced on the attack. Nonetheless, a lot of riders will be keen to give it a go but after a few kilometres, the sprint teams will allow a small group to get clear.

 

BMC will only ride tempo on the front to make sure that the break doesn’t pose any danger to Dennis’ lead and will be glad to see them take away the bonus seconds. There is no doubt that Giant-Alpecin will be forced to carry the main workload but there is a chance that the German team will combine forces with Orica-GreenEDGE to bring things back together for at least one of the intermediate sprints. If that is the case, we may see another break get established later in the race.

 

In such a short race, the escapees won’t get much of an advantage and Giant-Alpecin should be strong enough to ensure a bunch sprint. They are down to just 6 riders and also have some GC interests to protect but if things get critical, they can expect to get some assistance from teams like IAM, Lampre-Merida and maybe Etixx-QuickStep. In general, there are so many sprinters in this field that it is unthinkable that the stage won’t be decided in a bunch sprint. It may be pretty windy but on this kind of city circuit, it is almost impossible to split things.

 

With the stage set to be decided in a sprint, it is hard to look beyond Marcel Kittel as the big favourite. No one doubts that the German is the fastest rider in this – or any – field. He may have failed to win a stage so far but in general he seems to be riding stronger than he has done in his first two outings in Australia. His climbing may still not be at its best but a short, fast criterium is definitely manageable for him as he proved in the People’s Choice Classic.

 

However, it is definitely no foregone conclusion that Kittel will win the stage. Giant-Alpecin don’t have their strongest lead-out train in this race. Dumoulin will be forced to focus on his GC and this means that Kittel can only count on Simon Geschke, Albert Timmer and Koen De Kort to lead him out. Among those, De Kort is the only rider to regularly feature late in the train and even though he is among the best lead-out men in the business, it will be hard for them to dominate the finale. They were lucky in last Sunday’s race and there is a big chance that Kittel will be forced to start his sprint from behind.

 

On the other hand, this kind of long sprint suits Kittel really well. The headwind will make things more complicated as he can’t just rely on his pure speed to win the stage. However, none of the biggest lead-out trains are in Australia and this means that Kittel should not be too far back at the start of the sprint. If that’s the case, he will win the stage.

 

Kittel’s biggest rival should be Juan Jose Lobato. The Spaniard is clearly the in-form sprinter at the moment and this means a lot at this early point of the year. He may not be perfectly suited to this kind of very fast sprint but he proved his speed last Sunday when he came from far back to take second.

 

However, that sprint also exposed his weakness. In all his sprints, Lobato has had to come from far back because he has been poorly positioned. He can only rely on Enrique Sanz in the hectic finales and that may cause him to come up short against the well-drilled lead-out trains. This means that he could find himself boxed in in the finale but if he manages to get a clear run to the line, he should be the second fastest behind Kittel.

 

While Lobato doesn’t have a very good lead-out train, the same can’t be said for Heinrich Haussler. With Martin Elmiger, David Tanner, Vicente Reynes and Roger Kluge, IAM have a formidable line-up for the sprint finishes and they have played a big role in the sprint finishes. Until now, Haussler has been unable to finish it off but in general, he has been sprinting well.

 

Haussler is no pure sprinter and there are usually many riders that are faster than the Australian champion. Apart from Kittel, however, most of the sprinters are pretty equally matched and if Haussler gets the perfect lead-out, he has a winning chance.

 

Another rider that can rely on a very strong lead-out is Niccolo Bonifazio. When on his own, he may not be very good at positioning himself but Lampre-Merida probably have the most powerful sprint team in the race. Manuele Mori, Roberto Ferrari and Davide Cimolai are all very fast riders and this means that Bonifazio will be supported by lots of firepower. One rarely sees Lampre-Merida dominate the sprint finishes but if they can put things together tomorrow, Bonifazio’s sprint win on stage 1 proves that they a sprinter who can finish it off.

 

Speaking about good lead-out trains, Drapac deserves a mention. The Australian team did really well in stage 4 to set up Wouter Wippert for a third place finish. The Dutchman has suffered on the climbs but he has done really well in the sprints as he also finished third in the People’s Choice Classic. The loss of Travis Meyer is a big one but Wippert can still rely on Graeme Brown who is one of the best lead-out men in the business. If Drapac can position him well, Wippert will be one to watch.

 

The final very good lead-out train in the race is Etixx-QuickStep. Until now the team has been riding in support of Gianni Meersman but for this kind of sprint, Mark Renshaw must be their man. The Australian is definitely not the fastest rider in the bunch but in this kind of level field, lead-outs mean a lot. This could deliver the Australian to a fairytale win on home soil.

 

Of course Steele von Hoff also deserves a mention. The Australian did really well to win stage 4 and there is no doubt that he is one of the fastest riders in the field. Unlike many others, however, he can’t rely on a lead-out train and he will have to do most of the work himself. Usually, he doesn’t position himself very well but if things come together for him, he has the speed to win.

 

Finally, we will select out jokers. No one has seen much from Barry Markus in this race as the Dutchman has been suffering on the climbs. However, he should be much better suited to this kind of fast criterium where he can make use of his great speed. His main challenge will be to position himself for the sprint and here the loss of Maarten Tjallingii will be felt. There is a big chance that he won’t make it into the top 10 but if he manages to get an opening, he has the speed to do well.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo is usually not a joker for a sprint finish but as the Italian is short on form due to foot injury, he has finished in the gruppetto every day. Tomorrow, however, he may decide to give it a go as he should be able to handle this kind of short, fast race. Hayden Roulston, Marco Coledan and Eugenio Alafaci form a formidable lead-out train and usually Nizzolo has the speed to finish it off. He may not be good enough yet but there is a chance that he could create a surprise.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Juan Jose Lobato, Heinrich Haussler

Outsiders: Niccolo Bonifazio, Wouter Wippert, Mark Renshaw, Steele von Hoff

Jokers: Barry Markus, Giacomo Nizzolo