Luka Mezgec continued his love story with the Tour of Beijing when he emerged as the strongest in today’s first stage of the Chinese race. The Slovenian has a chance to make it two in a row tomorrow in stage 2 whose slightly hillier profile should do nothing to prevent another bunch sprint in the final WorldTour race of the year.

 

The course

After the opening sprint stage, a few fastmen will have been left disappointed but they will get an immediate opportunity to take revenge. At 147.5km, the second stage is another short affair that brings the riders from another start in Chongli to Yanqinq. The terrain is a bit harder than it was on the opening day but it is unlikely to be enough to prevent another bunch sprint.

 

Like in the first stage, the riders start the stage by travelling in a northerly direction which means that the first part is again a gradual uphill. After 20.5km, the riders turn around to go towards the southeast and that will be the direction for the remaining part of the stage. A long gradual descent should offer very few challenges for the riders that will contest the final intermediate sprint after 50.5km of racing.

 

Things gets harder at the midway point where the riders hit the bottom of the category 3 Tun Jun Pu Village Summit (2.3km, 4.1%). That will probably not make too much of a difference but the subsequent section will be the place to make the race tough. After a short descent, the road is slightly ascending for almost 30km and constantly gets steeper and steeper. It all culminates with the category 3 climb Yan Jia Ping Village Summit (1km, 8%) that comes with 36.5km to go.

 

The final part of the stage is very easy as a pretty steep descent leads to the Song Shan Reservoir. From there, the riders will do a 22.5km small loop on the northern outskirts of Yanqing. The roads are completely flat and non-technical, meaning that it suits a fast-moving bunch that will be intent on setting up a bunch sprint. There are no major challenges in the finale as the riders mostly follow a long straight road in the final 5km, with the only difficulty being a sharp 90-degree right-hand turn with 1km to go.

 

Yanqing hosted its first stage finish in 2013 when Nacer Bouhanni beat Roberto Ferrari and Mitchell Docker in a bunch sprint.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders got the Chinese race off to a rather pleasant start and tomorrow should again be a perfect day for bike racing. After a cloudy morning, the sun will be shining for almost the entire stage, with more clouds set to make their presence felt late in the afternoon. Rain is forecasted for the early evening but the stage will probably have finished by that time.

 

There will only be a light wind from a southerly direction which means that the riders will first have a tailwind before turning into a cross-headwind. Close to the bottom of the first climb, the riders will turn into a direct headwind which will make things tough until the reach the top of the final climb. From there, the riders will mostly have a crosswind before gradually turning into a headwind. The riders will turn into a crosswind with 1km to go.

 

The favourites

The opening stage completely lived up to expectations as it turned out to be a straightforward one for the sprinters. Tomorrow’s stage offers a few more undulations but it should be very little to prevent another bunch sprint.

 

The Tour of Beijing has built a reputation as offering plenty of opportunities for the fast finishers and this means that most teams have some kind of fast finisher on their roster. This means that there will be plenty of interest in setting up a bunch sprint – especially in a field where there is no real top sprinters and outright favourite, meaning that lots of riders fancy their chances.

 

Tomorrow’s stage offers a few more undulations than today’s opener but the final climb is more of a long, gradual uphill than a real climb. This means that it will be very easy to follow wheels. Furthermore, there will be a headwind which will make it even tougher to make a difference. The GC riders are totally focused on stages 3 and 4 and their only goal will be to get safely through the day.

 

Those factors all suggest that the sprinters will again get their chance to shine and this means that there won’t be much fight in the opening part of the stage. Everybody knows that the stage will be firmly controlled and most riders will be keen to save their energy for stage 3 where attackers may have a bigger chance. Hence, the early break will probably get clear pretty early and they will mainly be motivated by the prospect of taking the mountains jersey.

 

Today Sky did the majority of the chasing work, trying to set up Ben Swift for a sprint win. The Brit was unable to finish it off and didn’t even finish in the top 10. The British team is unlikely to make the same kind of effort in tomorrow’s stage but other teams should be ready to take over the control.

 

Giant-Shimano now have a leader’s jersey to defend and Luka Mezgec stands out as one of the major favourites. Today the team did nothing in the early part of the stage but tomorrow they will be extected to do the majority of the work. We can expct Cheng Ji and maybe Johannes Fröhlinger to spend most of the day on the front, trying to keep what is likely to be a small breakaway under control. They may get a bit of assistance from other teams, most notably from Orica-GreenEDGE who must be confident in Caleb Ewan after today’s stage. On paper, Lampre-Merida and Garmin-Sharp also have some of the favourites but they are likely to be more focused on the GC. Today Cannondale did a bit of work for Guillaume Boivin and as they have no HC rider in the race, they may again try to set up their Canadian sprinter.

 

With a headwind and several motivated sprinters, it is hard to imagine that it won’t come down to a bunch sprint. There’s a bit of a crosswind in the finale and the roads can be quite exposed. However, the win is not very strong and the wide roads mean that it is hard to split the peloton in China. Hence, we expect another big bunch sprint. The finale is pretty non-technical and the sprint will take place on a long, straight road, meaning that it suits the fast power sprinters really well.

 

Caleb Ewan may be riding his first WorldTour race for Orica-GreenEDGE but the young Australian proved in today’s stage that he is maybe the fastest rider in the bunch. In the finale, he was well-positioned on Ben Swift’s wheel but that proved to be the wrong choice. When he finally launched his sprint, he came very fast from behind and only Mezgec managed to hold off the fast-finishing youngster.

 

The performance comes on the heels of a solid showing in the Tour Down Under in January when he also proved that he can mix it up with the top sprinters. In that race, he didn’t have much support but in China, he has a strong team at his disposal. Daryl Impey is one of the best lead-out men in the business and he positioned the young Australian perfectly in the finale.

 

The combination of the fastest legs and a strong lead-out makes Ewan our favourite to win the stage. The lack of experience could be costly in what will definitely be a hectic and stressful finale and there is not guarantee that Ewan will be up there. If he is reasonably positioned and gets a clear run to the line, however, he has the speed to finish it off and tomorrow could be the day when he takes his first WorldTour stage win.

 

Luka Mezgec  won today’s stage by being perfectly positioned on Tyler Farrar’s wheel. Despite being part of the Giant-Shimano train, the Slovenian has taken most of his wins by handling the finales on his own. That skillset is of great importance in the kind of uncontrollable sprints that are likely to take place in China.

 

Today Mezgec relied on Reinardt Janse van Rensburg to position him and then he made use of his strong sprint to take the win. The results comes on the heels of a solid showing in the Volta a Catalunya, Giro d’Italia and Tour de Pologne where he proved that he has improved his sprinting skills massively. In this race, Giant-Shimano may not dominate the finale in the way they usually do but their Slovenian sprinter is fast enough to make it two in a row.

 

Sacha Modolo may have failed to win today’s stage but his fourth place should be pretty encouraging. The Italian has been set back by illness and injury for most of the year and has been unable to build on his great start to the season. Today’s performance proves that he is now back on track after a couple of painful months.

 

Today Modolo was not fast enough to go up against Mezgec but the Italian should get better and better as he gets back up to racing speed. The final power sprint may not suit him perfectly but he is definitely one of the fastest riders in the race. More importantly, Filippo Pozzato and Maximilano Richeze form one of the strongest lead-out trains in the race and if they manage to drop Modolo off on the front, he has the speed to finish it off.

 

Today Moreno Hofland didn’t have much success but the young Dutchman should be one of the fastest riders in the race. He mostly excels on hillier courses and the final power sprint doesn’t suit him too well. With Graeme Brown, Tom Leezer, Barry Markus, Dennis van Winden and Paul Martens at his side, however, he has a very strong team at his disposal. In the Vuelta, he sprinted pretty strongly and proved that he can be up there with the best at the WorldTour level. If Belkin time their lead-out well, Hofland could take another WorldTour win at the end of the season.

 

Tyler Farrar is doing his final races in Garmin-Sharp colours and like last year he seems to be in good condition at the end of the year. He finished in the top 5 thrice in the Tour de l’Eurometropole and today he sprinted to third after having started his sprint from very far out. The American is clearly one of the in-form riders at the moment and that is very important at the end of the year. Farrar has the experience to shine in this kind of field and tomorrow could be a chance for him to give his team the perfect farewell present.

 

Nikolas Maes is no pure sprinter but he has often proved that he has a decent finishing kick. Tomorrow’s power sprint should suit him pretty well and today he could count on very strong team support. He only managed to finish the stage in 5th but he still did a better sprint than lots of riders who have more experience in bunch sprints. For him to win, things have to go completely right but in this kind of sprint, the Belgian has a chance.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Today Steele von Hoff was allowed to do his own sprint behind teammate Tyler Farrar and he finished the stage in 8th. Tomorrow the American will again be the main ma but von Hoff may again get his own chance too. The Australian usually has a hard time getting into the perfect position but he has often proved that he is very fast. As he is mainly here as a lead-out rider, he will have a hard time taking the win but the Australian has the speed to take a surprise win.

 

Today Lotto Belisol seemed to support Greg Henderson in the finale. However, the Kiwi came away empty-handed. Tomorrow the Belgian team may be riding for Kris Boeckmans. The Belgian has been sprinting very well all year, nearly winning stages in the Tour of Turkey and the Criterum du Dauphiné despite mainly working as a lead-out man. He no longer seems to be in his best condition but on paper he should be one of the fastest riders in this field. It may be a good idea for Lotto to back their fast Belgian and he is definitely fast enough to pay back the confidence.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Caleb Ewan

Other winner candidates: Luka Mezgec, Sacha Modolo

Outsiders: Moreno Hofland, Tyler Farrar, Nikolas Maes

Jokers: Steele Von Hoff, Kris Boeckmans