Poor air quality forced the organizers to significantly change stage 2 which ended up as one for the puncheurs and opened the first small time gaps. Tomorrow the terrain will be even hillier but a flat finale means that stage 3 is likely to come down to a sprint from a reduced group, making it a perfect chance for the sprinters with the best climbing legs.

 

The course

After two days, the riders will need to turn on their climbing legs for the third day which will be more selective than the opening days. Riders who did the race 12 months ago, will know what to expect as the stage is an identical copy of stage 3 of last year’s race, meaning that the riders are familiar with the climbs and know how much damage they can do.

 

The 176km course is a very hilly affair and has a route that is up or down almost all day. From the start in today's finishing city of Yanqing, the riders head along flat roads in an easterly direction but things get complicated when they turn to the south to get into hillier terrain. First up is the category 3 Dong Hui Ling (2.4km, 5%) at the 23.5km mark but the road continues to point upwards for a little longer before a long descent takes the riders back to the Great Wall. The passage of the edifice consists of two category 3 climbs, Zhuang Ke (3km, 4.4%) and Xie Zi Shi (2.3km, 5.3%) which come in quick succession.

 

A long descent leads to the southernmost point of the route where the riders turn around to head in a northeasterly direction. They will tackle one of the steepest climb of the entire race, the category 2 Sha Ling (3.4km, 6%) before continuing to the first category 1 climb of the race, Si Hai (7.4km, 5.1%) that brings them past the Great Wall for the second time. At the top, the riders tackle a long gradual descent that leads to the category 2 Cang Mi Gu Dao (4.6km, 5.2%) whose top is located 43.5km from the finish.

 

They consist of a descent and a long section of slightly ascending roads that lead to the final difficulty of the day. The category 3 Huang Tu Liang (2km, 4.3%) is the perfect launch pad for attacks and from its top, only 11km remain. They consist of a short descent and a flat stretch to the finish at the Ciao Young Temple in Qiandiajian.

 

The final 3km are mostly non-technical. With 2.7km to go, the riders take a right-hand turn that leads onto a long road that bends slightly to the right. The final challenge is a 90-degree right-hand turn 500m from the line.

 

Last year the GC riders tested each other in the finale, with Tony Martin being keen to get a gap, but the terrain was not hard enough to make a difference. Hence, it all came down to a sprint from a reduced peloton where Nacer Bouhanni made use of his climbing legs to take his second win in the race.

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders faced very cold and rainy conditions which made the stage a tough affair. The sun is set to return later in the race but tomorrow should be another cold day in the saddle. Rain will be falling in the morning but it will probably stay dry for the entire duration of the stage. However, it will be a cloudy day with a maximum temperature of just 15 degrees.

 

At the start of the stage, there will be a moderate wind from a northerly direction but it will abate as the day goes on. This means that the riders will have a crosswind in the first part and a tailwind as they go up the first three climbs. At the bottom of the fourth climb, they will turn into a headwind and the wind will be blowing against them for most of the remaining part of the stage. In the final, they turn into a crosswind that gradually becomes a cross-tailwind. The final turn brings them into a cross-headwind on the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

The outcome of today’s stage was drastically changed by the shortening of the stage which turned it into an affair for puncheurs. Unfortunately, the air quality is still very poor and at the moment stage 3 may be cancelled entirely or significantly altered. Recent reports state that the wind has made the air better, meaning that the stage is currently set to go ahead but we won’t know anything for sure before tomorrow. This analysis is based on the assumption that there won’t be any changes.

 

Today the sprinters were denied the chance to go for glory but the strongest of the fast finishers may get an immediate opportunity to take revenge. Tomorrow the terrain will be significantly hillier but as the stage is completely identical to stage 3 of last year’s race, it has already been proved that the sprinters can overcome the challenges. Last year riders like Michael Matthews, Nacer Bouhanni, Moreno Hofland, Alessandro Petacchi, Borut Bozic, Elia Viviani and Alexey Tsatevich all finished in the first group, meaning that lots of fast finishers will fancy their chances.

 

They will be assisted by the headwind that will make the pace slower on the main climbs of the day. Furthermore, the steepest ascents come pretty far from the finish and there are lots of long, flat straights in the finale. The final climb is pretty easy and if the stage has not been made tough earlier on, lots of sprinters should be able to make it to the top close to the best.

 

However, the sprinters will have a hard time getting things back together for a sprint from a small group. For the riders that are neither climbers nor sprinters, this is the only real opportunity to win a stage in the race. Lots of riders will have red-circled tomorrow as the day to go on the attack. Hence, we can expect a very fast and animated stage with lots of attacks an aggressive racing.

 

Many teams know that they have little chance of winning the race overall and we can expect most teams to try to put a rider in the early break. This means that it will probably take a long time for the group to get clear and with hard climbs in the early part, we can expect the break to be pretty strong. As the GC is pretty close, it will be hard for BMC to make sure that the break is neither too strong nor too big.

 

When the elastic snaps, we can expect BMC to assume their position on the front of the peloton. Gilbert knows that stage 4 may be a bit too tough for him but he has made it clear that he will try to go for GC in this race. To do so, he needs to keep his rivals under control and so BMC can be expected to do their fair share of the pace-setting. BMC have a very strong team in the race and this will make it hard for the attackers.

 

They may get some assistance from Garmin-Sharp and Lampre-Merida who want to keep Dan Martin and Rui Costa in contention for the overall win. Sky may have marked this stage out as one to go for a stage win and they have been very active so far. Orica-GreenEDGE may have a similar plan and depending on the composition of the break, the GC teams may be lent a hand.

 

This means that there should be lots of firepower to bring back the early attackers and with long straight in the second half, the early break is unlikely to stay away. The real danger comes from the late attacks on the final two climbs. We could see some moves already on the penultimate ascent and we may get a group with fresh legs up the road on the flat stretch between the final two climbs. This will be much harder to catch but again there should be lots of GC interest in bringing it back together.

 

Last year the GC riders attacked each other on the final climb and we are pretty convinced that we will see some of the best climbers make some moves. However, the climb is pretty easy which means that it is unlikely to make much of a difference. A few riders may get a gap over the top but the most likely scenario is that a bigger group will gather on the descent for a sprint finish. Last year 58 riders finished in the same time as stage winner Nacer Bouhanni and this year we could easily see the same kind of outcome.

 

The main question is which riders will be able to overcome the climbs and remain in contention by the time the sprint unfolds. In the past, stage one winner Luka Mezgec has proved that he is one of the best climbers among the sprinters and even though he hasn’t been climbing as strongly in 2014, the terrain should not be too tough for a rider who has won three stages of the Volta a Catalunya.

 

Mezgec put his great sprinting legs on show in stage 1 and today he proved that he is also in solid climbing condition when he only lost 16 seconds to the best in the uphill sprint. Tomorrow’s climbs are a lot harder but the performance suggests that his condition is pretty good. He seems to be climbing better than he did 12 months ago when he finished in the second group just 43 seconds behind the stage winner.

 

Mezgec is definitely one of the fastest sprinters in this field and if he is still there at the finish, he will be hard to beat. He is not reliant on a lead-out and knows how to handle the finales on his own. That is an important skill in this kind of small group sprint and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

Among the sprinters, Ben Swift is probably the strongest climber and this is clearly his best chance to win a stage. Until now, Sky have been very active but they have not had much success. They have David Lopez for the GC but he doesn’t seem to have the same condition he had 12 months ago. This means that tomorrow’s stage is likely to be a big goal for Sky and it would be no surprise to see them use their many climbers to make the race hard for the sprinters.

 

Swift hasn’t been sprinting very well recently and there are definitely faster riders than him in this field. In stage 1, he was passed by several riders which means that he needs the race to be really tough to have a chance. If the race turns out to be really selective, however, Swift could turn out to be the fastest rider in the group and this makes him an obvious stage winner pick. There is no chance that he will get dropped in this terrain – the main question is whether there will be faster riders left to challenge him in the sprint.

 

Last year Moreno Hofland finished in the first group in this stage but messed it up in the sprint. This year he goes into the stage knowing that he can handle the climbs and this will provide him with lots of confidence. The Dutchman is no pure sprinter and he generally excels in this kind of races where he can use his fast sprint at the end of a hard day in the saddle.

 

Hofland has not raced a lot this year and he should be fresher than his rivals. His condition is a bit uncertain but he did reasonably well in today’s stage. Most of his lead-out train will be dropped in this hard terrain but he will have Paul Martens at his side in the finale. That will be important as he usually has a hard time getting to the front. If he gets a clear run to the line, he has the speed to win this stage.

 

Today’s stage proved to be a bit too tough for Caleb Ewan but the tiny Australian will be eager to take his revenge tomorrow. At the U23 level, he has proved that he can overcome pretty hard climbs but of course the WorldTour level is a different story. There is a big chance that he will get dropped before the finish and that Orica-GreenEDGE will have to back Daryl Impey in the sprint. However, Ewan is a bit of a dark horse at this level and in stage 1 he proved that he is probably, the fastest rider in the field. If he is still there at the finish, he will be our favourite to win the stage.

 

If the stage proves to be too tough for Luka Mezgec, Giant-Shimano have another card to play. The stage is perfectly suited to Reinardt van Rensburg who proved his great condition in today’s stage. There a definitely faster riders than the South African in this field but if the stage turns out to be really hard, he should be one of the fastest riders in the group. He would love to give Giant-Shimano a farewell present and will be eager to take a final win for the Dutch team.

 

Tyler Farrer is another rider that will be eager to pay back his team before he leaves at the end of the season. In the Tour de l’Eurometrople he proved that he is good condition and at his best he climbs pretty well. Tomorrow’s stage is probably a bit too tough for him but there is a chance that he will make it to the finish with the best. If so, he will be one of the favourites to win the stage.

 

On paper, this stage is perfectly suited to Sacha Modolo but his condition is a bit uncertain. He has been hit by several setbacks all year and this means that he is unlikely to be at 100%. However, he is usually a very strong climber and in the first part of the season he has proved that he has upped his sprinting level. Tomorrow will be a big test of his condition but if he makes it over the climb, he will be one of the clear favourites.

 

If the stage is too hard for Ewan, Daryl Impey will be ready to shine. The South African has had an amazing comeback, winning a sprint from a reduced group on the final stage of the Tour of Alberta to take the race overall. Tomorrow’s stage could have a similar outcome and he proved at the Worlds and in today’s stage that he is still riding very well. For him to win, the stage probably has to be hard but if that’s the case he has a big chance.

 

Filippo Pozzato is another rider that will be very keen to win this stage. He was hugely disappointed not to get selected for the Worlds as he was in great condition in the middle of September. He is probably no longer in the same kind of form but he should be able to overcome this kind of climbs. He has proved lots of times that he is very strong in a sprint from a small group and if Modolo is not there, he will get his chance. In this kind of finishes, he can beat pure sprinters and this turns him into an obvious stage winner candidate.

 

Philippe Gilbert, Paul Martens and Julian Alaphilippe are all very fast in a sprint from a small group and they will be eager to make their mark on this stage. In today’s stage they were all among the best and this proves that they are still riding strongly. On paper, there are faster riders in this field but if the race turns out to be selective, they should be up there.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Luka Mezgec

Other winner candidates: Ben Swift, Moreno Hofland

Outsiders: Caleb Ewan, Reinardt van Rensburg, Tyler Farrar, Sacha Modolo, Davide Appollonio

Jokers: Daryl Impey, Filippo Pozzato, Philippe Gilbert, Paul Martens, Julian Alaphilippe, Yannick Martinez