Until now, the climbers have been biding their time but tomorrow it is finally time for them to show their cards. For the second year in a row, the Mentougou Miaofeng Mountain is set to determine the winner of the final WorldTour race of the year and all is set for a huge battle between Rui Costa and Daniel Martin on the 12km climb on the outskirts of Beijing.

 

The course

Unless something unexpected happens, the GC is set to come down to Monday's fourth stage which is the toughest in the history of the Tour of Beijing. The stage is very similar to last year’s queen stage, has the same opening part and finishes on the same climb. However, the organizers have made some modifications to the middle section to make for a tougher run-in to the final ascent.

 

For the second day in a row, the riders will take off from Yanqing and like on the previous day, they will head in a southerly direction as they travel towards the hills west of Beijing. The first 12km are slightly ascending and are followed by a long descent that takes the riders past the Great Wall in Badaling where Francesco Gavazzi won the queen stage in 2012. After a short, flat section, the riders turn right to head into the hills and up the category 1 Xian Ren Dong Village climb (7.7km, 5.5%). At the top, a short section of slightly descending roads precede the steepest climb in the race, the category 2 Gao Ya Kou (3.5km, 7.1%), which is followed by a steep descent that takes the riders back to the northern outskirts of Beijing.

 

This is where the course deviates from last year’s route as 40km of flat roads have been replaced by a tougher section that again takes the riders into the hills. Having finished the descent, the riders again turn to the west to go up the category 3 Pu Sa Lu (2.9km, 5.5%) and Si Jia Hui (2.5km, 5.4%) which come in quick succession. As they gradually turn around to head back towards Beijing, the roads become less undulating before the category 2 Dong Fang Hing Tunnel (3.3km, 6.2%) offers a final test before the finishing climb.

 

From the top, just 22.5km remain and they first consist of a fast descent and then a short flat stretch that leads to the bottom of the category 1 Mentougou Miaofeng Mountain (12.6km, 5.7%). The finish line comes at the top of the ascent that also brought last year’s penultimate stage to an end. The climb is pretty regular and never becomes very steep. The hardest section comes with 8km to go where the gradient stays around 7% for two kilometres. The next two kilometres are easier while the final four kilometres have gradients of 6.4%, 5.7%, 6% and 5.2% respectively.

 

When the climb debuted in 2013, Benat Intxausti attacked from afar and narrowly managed to hold off a fast-finishing Daniel Martin by 3 seconds, with David Lopez completing the podium 1 second further adrift.

 

 

 

The weather

The first three days of the Tour of Beijing have been pretty cold and cloudy but tomorrow things should be better. With a maximum temperature of just 15 degrees, it will again be pretty cold but for the first time, the riders will be racing under beautiful sunshine.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a tailwind for most of the day. For the penultimate climb, however, they will turn into a crosswind and there will be a headwind in the flat run-in to the final climb and for most of the ascent itself. With 1.7km to go, the riders will turn into a cross-tailwind for the remaining part of the stage.

 

The favourites

The inclusion of the summit finish on the Mentougou Miaofeng Mountain has made the Tour of Beijing significantly harder but has also turned the race into a bit of a waiting game. Everybody knows that this is the day to make the difference and so everybody is saving energy for the final big battle. This was evident in today’s stage where all the favourites rode conservatively and were content with a sprint finish.

 

This means that the favourites are more or less in the same time as they go into the most important stage of the race and everything will be decided in tomorrow’s stage. Many of the riders did the climb 12 months ago and so lots of them know what to expect.

 

The final climb is not overly steep and last year the best riders were separated by seconds as the many attacks mostly proved fruitless until Intxausti benefited from a tactical standstill to get away. The favoirites were unable to make a difference until Martin accelerated hard in the end but he only managed to gain 1 second on Lopez and 3 seconds on Rui Costa. 22 riders finished within 40 seconds of the stage winner.

 

This year the organizers have tried to make the race a bit harder by including more climbs in the first part of the stage. This will have an impact on the level of fatigue in the finale but it will do nothing to open the race earlier than last year. The first half of the stage is pretty hard but the climbs are all very far from the finish. The new climbs are all pretty short and there are lots of flat sections in the finale. Furthermore, there is a headwind in the stretch between the two final climbs, meaning that the favourites will all save themselves for the battle on the final ascent.

 

Today the first part of the stage was pretty fast and we can expect a similar scenario in tomorrow’s stage. The terrain is pretty hard to control and this means that the attackers may fancy their chances. A lot of riders will be keen on going on the attack and this means that it will probably take some time for the break to be established. However, the first part of the stage is pretty easy and unless the riders get to the bottom of the first climb before the break gets clear, it will be easy for the GC teams to make sure that the group is not too big or strong.

 

If the break contains no riders that are dangerous for the GC, they have a very small chance of making it to the finish but it is unlikely to happen. The main favourites not only want to win the overall, they want the stage win too. This means that Lampre-Merida, BMC and Garmin-Sharp are likely to control the stage firmly and so the break is unlikely to get much of an advantage.

 

This means that the break is likely to be caught no later than on the lower slopes of the final climb where the GC riders will do their battle. It won’t be a surprise if some of their teams have tried to make things hard on the previous ascents and so they may already be fatigued by the time they hit the final climb.

 

The organizers have tried to make the stage harder but unfortunately it is unlikely to be more selective than it was last year. The climb never gets really steep and there will be a headwind until the riders take a turn with 1.7km to go. On 5-6% gradients, it is pretty easy to follow wheels and this means that it will be very hard for the favourites to make a difference before they take that turn in the finale. At that point, they are pretty close to the finish and this means that the stage will be more suited to puncheurs than real climbers.

 

This means that the stage has two possible scenarios. It may come down to a battle between the favourites in the 1.7km but we could also see a repeat of last year’s stage. Like last year we can expect lots of attacking and it will be pretty hard for the favourites to control the stage as they don’t want to ride in the headwind on their own. Last year Intxausti exploited the tactical battle to take the win and if the favourites have no domestiques left, we could see a repeat of that scenario. As Rafael Valls doesn’t seem to be very strong at the moment, Rui Costa will be reliant on Jan Polanc in the finale but the key riders to keep things together are probably Ryder Hesjedal and Dominik Nerz who will be working for Daniel Martin and Samuel Sanchez/Philippe Gilbert respectively.

 

That kind of firepower should be enough to keep things together for a battle between the favourites and so we expect the stage to come down to a battle between Rui Costa and Dan Martin who are probably the two strongest riders in the race. Both would probably have preferred a tailwind instead of headwind as they are among the best climbers in the race but both are pretty explosive too. This means that they are both suited to this kind of stage where it could all come down to an uphill sprint from a small group.

 

Going into the race, we selected Rui Costa as our overall favourite and the first three stages have done nothing to change that assessment. In fact, the Portuguese has only confirmed that he is riding extremely well at the moment. Already in Il Lombardia, he was one of the strongest on the final climb and in this race he has appeared to be at ease whenever the road has ramped upwards. Most importantly, he sprinted to third in the uphill finish on stage 2 even though that stage was better suited to more explosive riders.

 

We have little doubt that Costa would be the strongest if the stage was very tough but in this kind of finish things are a bit more unpredictable. On paper, Martin is a bit more explosive than Costa and usually he would be the fastest in an uphill sprint. However, Costa is very fast too and the fact that he beat Martin in stage 2 whose finish suited the Irishman better, indicates that he is the stronger of the pair. Furthermore, he was clearly better than the Garmin captain in Il Lombardia.

 

Unless tactics play a role, we will be surprised if anyone manages to drop Costa but the former world champion still needs to beat his rivals in what is likely to come down to an uphill sprint. If they had both been at 100%, we would have put our money on Martin but at the moment, Costa simply seems to be the strongest rider. The fight should be a close one but Costa is our favourite to win the race.

 

However, Daniel Martin will be a formidable opponent. The Irishman is clearly still riding strongly and the way Garmin-Sharp has been riding indicates that he is very confident in his own chances. On paper, he should be better than Costa in this kind of finish and if it comes down to a sprint in the final few hundred metres, he will be hard to beat.

 

However, Martin barely made it over the top of the final climb with the best in Il Lombardia and in the uphill sprint on stage 2 he didn’t look too strong. Nonetheless, he is a specialist in this kind of finish and he is a master in saving his energy at the right time. Hence, he may be stronger than he has indicated in his previous races and it would be no surprise if he takes the win he narrowly missed 12 months ago.

 

Philippe Gilbert may be leading the race but the BMC leader in tomorrow’s stage is Samuel Sanchez. The Spaniard always comes strongly out of a grand tour and he showed great morale by maintaining his condition despite not getting selected for the Worlds. In Il Lombardia he finished with the best after having made a strong attack on the final descent.

 

However, Sanchez had to dig very deep to bridge the gap to the front group over the top of the final climb in the Italian classic and he doesn’t seem to be riding as strongly as Martin and Costa. Furthermore, he is not perfectly suited to this kind of finish as he would have preferred a harder finishing climb. He is pretty fast in an uphill sprint but not as fast as Martin and Costa. It will be hard for him to take the win but at the moment he seems to be the third strongest rider in the race and so is an obvious winner candidate.

 

Usually, we would have given Philippe Gilbert no chance in this kind of stage as the final climb should be too long for him. However, the Belgian seems to be riding extremely strongly at the moment and he will have a big advantage due to the headwind. This means that a bigger group could very well arrive to the final 1.7km together and then it will all come down to a final short effort on gradients that are pretty easy. Gilbert is very hard to beat under such circumstances and if that is the case, he will be one of the favourites. It all depends on whether he will have his usual punch at the top of such a long climb but with a headwind, the BMC rider definitely has a chance to take win number 2.

 

Johan Esteban Chaves was very tired at the end of the Vuelta and didn’t seem to be at his best when he attacked in the finale of the Worlds road race. However, he now seems to have recovered from the strains of three weeks of hard racing and he looked very strong in yesterday’s stage. In the first part of the Vuelta and in the Tour de Suisse, he proved that he is able to fight against the very best when he is at 100% and at the moment, he seems not to be too far off that mark. He would definitely have preferred a harder finale but he has a decent uphill sprint. Furthermore, he may not be too heavily marked and he could be the rider to launch a successful attack in the finale.

 

Sergey Chernetski has been knocking on the door for a top 10 result in a WorldTour race for a while. This time it may finally happen for the talented Russian as he seems to be riding very strongly at the moment. He came out of his first grand tour at the Vuelta claiming to be very fresh and he seems to have benefited massively from getting through his first three-week race. He has appeared to be at ease on the climbs and he finished a strong 4th in stage 2.

 

Chernetski is not only a good climber, he is also fast in a sprint. That skill is very important on this kind of climb which makes him a potential outsider. Furthermore, he won’t be too heavily marked and this could allow him to launch a well-timed attack in the finale.

 

In the Vuelta, Warren Barguil proved that he is now able to match the best in the mountains and in the Worlds road race he was still riding strongly. In Il Lombardia he showed signs of fatigue and he hasn’t looked too strong in the first part of this race.

 

However, Barguil is a very talented climber and he is definitely one of the best in this race. He may not be at 100% but his form is not too bad either. He would have preferred a harder finishing climb but as he proved in last year’s Vuelta, he is pretty fast too. Furthermore, he is riding very aggressively and this could pay off in a tactical battle on the final climb.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Jesus Herrada may never become a top climber but as he proved in the Tour de Romandie, he is strong enough to finish in the top 10 in WorldTour stage races. At the moment, he is riding very well as he proved by finishing in the top 10 on stage 2. He is pretty fast in a sprint and he won’t be too heavily marked in the finale. If he launched a well-timed attack, he may copy his teammate Intxausti’s performance.

 

Ryder Hesjedal may be expected to control the race for Daniel Martin but Garmin-Sharp may decide to put Costa under pressure by sending the Canadian up the road. History shows that he is very hard to catch when he gets a gap on a finishing climb and he has proved that he is still at a decent level. If Costa has no teammates left and the favourites are looking at each other, Hesjedal may be benefiting from team tactics to win the race.

 

Pieter Serry is mostly working as a domestique but in this race he may get his own chance. Rigoberto Uran is the Omega Pharma-Quick Step captain but the Colombian doesn’t seem to be at his best. Like last year, however, Serry seems to be in great condition at the end of the season. He is no pure climber but with a headwind, the final climb should suit him well. Furthermore, he is pretty fast in an uphill sprint and this could allow him to take a surprise victory.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Rui Costa

Other winner candidates: Daniel Martin, Samuel Sanchez

Outsiders: Philippe Gilbert, Johan Esteban Chaves, Sergey Chernetski, Warren Barguil

Outsiders: Jesus Herrada, Ryder Hesjedal, Pieter Serry