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The major favourite is Fabian Cancellara. Having struggled to regain his usual strength after his crash in last year's Olympic road race, Spartacus looked like his former self when he accelerated furiously on the cobbles of the Oude Kwa...

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FABIAN CANCELLARA

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FILIPPO POZZATO

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JUAN ANTONIO FLECHA GIANNONI

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PETER SAGAN

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RONDE VAN VLAANDEREN

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SYLVAIN CHAVANEL

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29.03.2013 @ 09:33 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

The holy week of Belgian cycling reaches its climax on Sunday when the cycling-mad Flemish population invite the rest of the world to a fantastic festival of cobbles and climbs, wind and cold, beer and frites. The Tour of Flanders is the most iconic of the series of races which represent the very unique type of racing only found in the Flemish region and in which only the greatest specialists thrive.

 

There will be no holding back when the riders line up in Brugge Sunday morning. Up until now, every race has carried an element of preparation, but that will no longer be the case in De Ronde. The big objectives have finally arrived, and the greatest cobbles specialists will have to judge their spring season on their results the next two Sundays.

 

The Tour of Flanders join Milan-Sanremo, Paris-Roubaix, Liege-Bastogne-Liege and the Tour of Lombardy in the list of cycling's 5 monuments - the sport's most iconic one-day races - and its roots in the cycling-mad Flemish region makes it one of the most coveted. The fans create a special atmosphere which is found nowhere else on the cycling calendar.

 

While the other cobbled monument, Paris-Roubaix, is an almost completely flat affair where the difference is made purely by the rough surface and where the strongest contenders rely on their strength and endurance, the Tour of Flanders is a different affair. The main characteristic of the course is its numerous hellingen - short, steep, often cobbled climbs - and thus success in Flanders does require a certain punch to tackle the slopes of the Flemish Ardennes.

 

Even though both cobbled monuments have been dominated by Fabian Cancellara and Tom Boonen in the last couple of years, it is no surprise that the list of contenders differ somewhat for the two races. While Thor Hushovd has never been able to challenge for victory in Flanders, he is one of the most consistent performers in the North of France. On the contrary, Philippe Gilbert and Peter Sagan who mostly avoid Paris-Roubaix to target success in the Ardennes, have traditionally been among the favourites on Sunday (although the world champion will be absent this year). With its combination of climbs and cobbles, the Tour of Flanders may be seen as an amalgamation of Paris-Roubaix and the Ardennes classics.

 

Last year, Tom Boonen (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) was the first to win on a revamped course after he beat Filippo Pozzato and Alessandro Ballan in a 3-man sprint. The trio broke clear on the last passage of the legendary climb of the Oude Kwaremont, and even though Boonen was on the edge of cracking moments later on the Paterberg, the Italian duo failed to drop their faster companion.

 

With his third victory, Boonen equaled the race record set by Achiel Buysse, Fiorenzo Magni, Eric Leman and Johan Museeuw, and the Belgian champion will start this year's race with the aim of entering the history books as the only rider to take a fourth victory in De Ronde.

 

The course

In a much-debated decision, organizers chose to revamp the course for the Tour of Flanders last year. The finish line was moved from its traditional site of Meerbeke to the city of Oudenaarde and as a consequence, the legendary Muur van Geraardsbergen was removed from the route. As the scene for many historic battles between some of the sport's great legends, it was a very unpopular decision among the Belgian fans.

 

The traditional final challenges of the Muur and the Bosberg were replaced by three different loops in the Flemish Ardennes south of Oudenaarde all containing the climbs of Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg. Both are among the most difficult climbs in the region, and general consensus was that three passages of this hard duo inside the final 75km would create a much harder race.

 

It was maybe due to an excessive fear of the difficulties of the course, but the race ended up being much less selective than expected. Behind the winning trio of Boonen, Pozzato and Ballan, a large group sprinted for 4th, and plenty of fans hope that experience will now prompt the riders to create a harder race this year.

 

Even in the modified version, the course follows a very traditional pattern which is typical for all races in the Flemish region. The race starts in the city of Brugge and travels in a southerly direction towards the Flemish Ardennes and the numerous hellingen which constitute the real challenges of the race. The opening kilometres take place on completely flat roads and bring the riders into the hilly area just south of the finishing city of Oudenaarde. A breakaway will be established in this opening phase of the race, and otherwise the first 110km and the climb of Tiegemberg only serve the purpose of accumulating fatigue in the riders' legs and building up the distance.

 

The racing gets serious with 143,6km remaining of the 256,2km course. The riders hit the Taaienberg as the first of a series of climbs. The Taaienberg is known as Tom Boonen's favourite climb, and it is rarely included in a race without Boonen using it to put in an attack. One of those rare occassions is, however, the Tour of Flanders since the long distance to the finish makes it unsuitable to make any lasting selection.

 

The climbs now come in quick succession until the passage of the Valkenberg with 96,7km to go and are interspersed with a number of cobbled sections. From now on, it is an elimination race with riders constantly dropping off as accelerations are put in on the climbs, the cobbles or in crosswind sections. Riders try to go up the road, and it is a constant tactical battle with the biggest teams all trying to put their rivals in an uncomfortable position.

 

After the Valkenberg, it is time for a short, flatter section before the final kicks off with the first of three different circuits in the area south of Oudenaarde. The first passage of the Oude Kwaremont is the signal to the favourites to open their battle, and from now on the decisive attack can be put in anywhere.

 

The Kwaremont is followed by the Paterberg and the legendary Koppenberg which will be climbed with 64km remaining. After the Steenbeekdries and Kruisberg, it is time for the second passage of the Kwaremont/Paterberg duo with 36,9km remaining, and the final battle will probably play out when the climbs are tackled for the last time with 16,7km to go.

 

The decisive attacks from the race favourites will most likely happen on these two climbs. The former is a long, cobbled climb suited to an engine like Cancellara - it was the site of Cancellara's attack in the E3 a week ago - while the Paterberg is a short, cobbled and extremely steep ramp perfect for a punchy rider like Boonen. After the last passage, 13,3 completely flat kilometres await, and they will be the scene of a frantic chase and a possible battle between the remaining riders in the front group.

 

The weather

The weather is a key ingredient in racing in Flanders, and the difficulty of the race is dramatically increased if cold, rain and wind join the festivities. With the unusual cold conditions having caused havoc on plenty of races in the early part of the season, it is no wonder that riders take a careful look at the forecasts for Sunday's race.

 

The  riders will feel reassured to see that we should not expect another Milan-Sanremo drama or another shortened race like in the Gent-Wevelgem. With temperatures hovering around the 5 degree mark, it will be another cold day where proper clothing will play a key role. However, rain or snow are not expected, and the strong wind which turned the opening kilometres of the Gent-Wevelgem into a drama with groups all over the road, has calmed down considerably.

 

Attackers will be discouraged by the fact that there will be a headwind all the way from the final passage of the Paterberg to the finish line in Oudenaarde, thus making it much harder to defend a gap on a chasing group.

 

The favourites

With a number of races on the Flemish cobbles already behind us, the riders have had plenty of opportunities to gauge each other's progress ahead of the big battle. Two riders have emerged as the most obvious contenders for the overall victory, and much of the in-race tactics will revolve around these two main characters in Sunday's drama.

 

The major favourite is Fabian Cancellara (Radioshack-Leopard). Having struggled to regain his former strength after his crash in last year's Olympic road race, Spartacus looked like his own self when he accelerated furiously on the cobbles of the Oude Kwaremont in the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen. Neither the young phenomenon Peter Sagan (Cannondale) nor archrival Tom Boonen (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) were even close to join the Swiss time trial specialist who built up a large gap on the relatively short climb with apparent ease. Afterwards, he was able to hold off the combined forces of Sagan, Sebastian Langeveld (Orica-GreenEdge), Geraint Thomas (Sky), Daniel Oss (BMC ) and Sylvain Chavanel (Omega Pharma-Quick Step). Keeping Sagan's efforts in Gent-Wevelgem and Chavanel's dominant time trial in the Driedaagse van de Panne in mind, this is an evident proof of Cancellara's strength.

 

The Radioshack captain was hunted by bad luck last year where crashes destroyed his chances in E3, the Tour of Flanders and the Olympic road race. Nobody doubts his desire to prove that he is back at his former level, and he will be further spurred on by a strained relationship with main rival Sagan. Cancellara stands no chance in a sprint against Boonen or Sagan, and everybody knows that he will put in an attack somewhere along the course. The steep slopes of the Paterberg are not perfectly suited to his characteristics, so expect the quadruple time trial world champion to accelerate furiously on one of the last two passages of the Oude Kwaremont. His rivals know that they cannot allow him any gap at all, but it will a tough job to remain in his wheel.

 

His main rival is young sensation Peter Sagan (Cannondale). The Slovakian has been at the head of affairs in all major one-day races of the season, and his great versatility and impressive consistency have seen him enter the top 2 in the Strade Bianche, Milan-Sanremo, E3 and Gent-Wevelgem. He got a great confidence boost by securing his first classics win in the latter race, and he has gained plenty of experience since last year where he ended up 5th after he had spent a lot of energy in a long, lonely chase of the winning trio of Boonen, Pozzato and Ballan.

 

Sagan has the benefit of being the fastest of the favourites and so he does not need to go on the attack. His main challenge will be to follow Cancellara's expected attacks. While the Slovakian talent seems to be totally at ease on the paved climbs, indications are, however, that he struggles a bit on the cobbles. He had spent a lot of energy to get back in contention after mechanicals earlier in the race, but it must be a source of concern in the Cannondale camp that he was not even close to following Cancellara's acceleration in the E3. Furthermore, he seemed to be struggling just moments earlier on the Paterberg, and he was certainly not at ease on the second ascent of the Kemmelberg in the Gent-Wevelgem. He needs to use of all of his limited experience to save as much energy for his attempt to follow Cancellara's expected attack.

 

The most dangerous outside threat to the battle between Cancellara and Sagan is the collective might of the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team. While the Swiss and the Slovakian can both be expected to be isolated in the race final, the Belgian super team proved their strength in numbers in the E3. In a 15-man front group, Tom Boonen, Sylvain Chavanel, Stijn Vandenbergh, Zdenek Stybar and Michal Kwiatkowski were representatives from Patrick Lefevre's squad, and a similar situation could occur in the crucial part of Sunday's race.

 

For once, the most likely challenger from the team is not defending champion and Belgian hero Tom Boonen. His teammate Sylvain Chavanel could be the man to surprise the Swiss-Slovakian duo due to an incredible run of form. The Frenchman has been in the top 6 in the Paris-Nice, Milan-Sanremo and the E3 and this proves a great versatility. His performances in the 2011 edition of the race shows that he is able to handle the distance, and he has plenty of experience in this type of racing.

 

What really marks him out as a standout contender for the overall win is his performances in this week's Driedaagse van de Panne. While his overall victory in the race was mostly based on another dominant time trial performance - once again underlying just how strong the Frenchman is right now - it was his behaviour in the final part of the hilly stage 1 that really underlined his Flanders potential. He was a constant presence at the head of the peloton, entered all the key moves and was at apparent ease when he closed the gap to an accelerating Sagan on the final climb of Eikenmolen. Expect the 2011 runner-up to go on the attack in the final of the race, and he could be the one to benefit from any internal rivalry between Sagan and Cancellara.

 

While Chavanel will constitute the offensive part of the two-pronged Omega Pharma-Quick Step tactic, Tom Boonen will probably ride a much more conservative race than he usually does. The defending champion has had a terrible build-up to the race with illness and elbow surgery forcing him to miss key early-season competition and his Gent-Wevelgem crash was just another blow to the triple Flanders winner. He has played catch-up all season long, and his current fitness level is the big question lingering in the heads of the race's main contenders. For a moment, he seemed back to his best in the E3 and put in his usual strong accelerations on the Taaienberg and Paterberg. However, he was struggling at the back just moments later on the Oude Kwaremont and even though he writes this collapse down to insufficient eating during the race, his performances have not been enough to convince his Belgian fans that he is ready for his title defence. He has not been a major factor in the final of a race all season and that lack of intensity in his racing may turn out to be his greatest problem. Expect the Belgian champion to ride a defensive race where he hopes that his sprint will be enough to take that record-breaking fourth Flanders triumph.

 

The big surprise in the race could very well be Dutch talent Sebastian Langeveld (Orica-GreenEdge). He was going strong ahead of last year's race, but crashed out in dramatic fashion and missed an opportunity to impress in his most important events. This year he seems to be even stronger, and he was a standout performer in the E3. When Cancellara attacked on the Kwaremont, Langeveld seemed to be the best of the rest, and in the company of Sagan he momentarily dropped his fellow escapees before falling back to be a crucial part of the final 5-man chase group. His victory in the 2011 Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is a further testament to his ability in the Flemish races, and he could be the one to exploit a tactical battle to go off the front in a solo move. He is surrounded by an experienced team which will keep him safe until the final, but his undoing may be his lack of a competitive sprint.

 

Filippo Pozzato (Lampre-Merida) is another favourite whose level of form is surrounded by plenty of question marks. The Italian was probably the strongest rider in the 2009 and 2012 editions of the race, and he is one of the most talented riders on the cobbles. Last year he managed to build up an incredible condition despite an untimely collarbone fracture in February. This year his build-up has been perfect, but he has struggled to reach the same level of strength. He failed to join the decisive move in his home race, the Milan-Sanremo, and he did not impress at all in the E3. However, a surge on the second passage of the Kemmelberg in the Gent-Wevelgem gave glimpses of hope for the Lampre captain, and his pure talent in these races always mark him out as a danger man. His main weaknesses may be his defensive racing style and a lack of team support, and he will certainly have to drop his cautious approach and go on the attack to try to use any internal rivalry between the race's biggest favourites.

 

Juan Antonio Flecha (Vacansoleil) always manages to time his build-up to perfection. He gave another proof of this ability last year when injury kept him out of competition during the month leading up to De Ronde, and nonetheless he managed to end up in the top 20 and take a fine 4th one week later in the Paris-Roubaix. This year the Spaniard seems to once again approach peak condition just in time for his biggest objectives. He was strong in Tirreno-Adriatico, but struck by illness in Milan-Sanremo he was not able to make his usual impression in the Dwars door Vlaanderen and the E3. However, there was marked improvement from race to race, and in Sunday's Gent-Wevelgem he once again looked like his usual self. Paris-Roubaix may be more suited to the veteran Spaniard, but in peak condition he poses a serious threat in De Ronde as well. He should be able to exploit the possibility of his competitors underestimating his strength, but will have to reduce his usual waste of energy to keep his powder dry for one strong acceleration in the final part of the race.

 

Finally, a handful of riders deserve a mention. Jurgen Roelandts (Lotto-Belisol) and Daniel Oss (BMC) have both proved to be in great condition and are clear outsiders in Sunday's race. However, both have so far struggled to be competitive in the longest races, and it would be no surprise to see them fall back in the decisive part of the race. For Luca Paolini (Katusha) the distance should be no problem, but the Italian seems to have mistimed his build-up this year. When on form, he is a constant aggressor in the cobbled races, but he was nowhere to be seen in the E3 or in his low-key De Panne performance. However, the veteran Italian is a wily competitor and could use his vast experience to play a key role in the race final.

 

***** Fabian Cancellara

**** Peter Sagan, Sylvain Chavanel

*** Tom Boonen, Sebastian Langeveld, Filippo Pozzato, Juan Antonio Flecha

** Jurgen Roelandts, Daniel Oss, Oscar Gatto, Luca Paolini, Geraint Thomas, Mathew Hayman, Stijn Vandenbergh

*Zdenek Stybar, Maxim Iglinskiy, Greg Van Avermaet, Yoann Offredo, Andrey Amador, Heinrich Haussler, Thomas Voeckler

 

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