The holy week of Belgian cycling reaches its climax on Sunday when the cycling-mad Flemish population invite the rest of the world to a fantastic festival of cobbles and climbs, wind and cold, beer and frites. The Tour of Flanders is the most iconic of the series of races which represent the very unique type of racing only found in the Flemish region and in which only the greatest specialists thrive.

 

There will be no holding back when the riders line up in Brugge Sunday morning. Up until now, every cobbled race has carried an element of preparation, but that will no longer be the case in De Ronde. The big objectives have finally arrived, and the greatest cobbles specialists will have to judge their spring season on their results the next two Sundays.

 

The Tour of Flanders join Milan-Sanremo, Paris-Roubaix, Liege-Bastogne-Liege and the Tour of Lombardy in the list of cycling's 5 monuments - the sport's most iconic one-day races - and its roots in the cycling-mad Flemish region makes it one of the most coveted. The fans create a special atmosphere which is found nowhere else on the cycling calendar.

 

The first edition of the race was held in 1913 and was organized by Karel Van Wijnendaele, co-founder of the sports paper Sportwereld. Like most other big historic races, it was the desire of a newspaper to promote circulation that prompted the creation of one of cycling's most iconic events.

 

The race was before the second world war usually on the same day as Milan–San Remo. Prominent Italian and French racers preferred the latter which explains why there was only a single non-Belgian winner before the war. With the decision to separate the two races on the calendar, both started to flourish, turning them both into some of cycling's biggest one-day races.

 

The Tour of Flanders is the highlight of the holy week of Belgian cycling and is the pinnacle of a race series that offer several races with an almost identical composition. Over a few weeks in late March and early April, the riders do several races on the same narrow, cobbled and steep roads in a tiny area in the Flemish Ardennes where they zigzag their way through the area to go up as many of the famous hellingen as possible.

 

Races like the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Dwars door Vlaanderen, E3 Harelbeke and the Tour of Flanders are all made up in this way and offer a very special kind of racing that characterizes this unique part of the cycling season. For some reason, it is all restricted to this very short span of time and the roads are only rarely used later in the season. During this period of time, however, they are the centre of the cycling world and all previous events have been a build-up to Sunday's great finale, one of the most important moments of the entire cycling season. The Tour of Flanders is the only monument to have a series of races that seem to all be preparation for the big event.

 

While the other cobbled monument, Paris-Roubaix, is an almost completely flat affair where the difference is made purely by the rough surface and where the strongest contenders rely on their strength and endurance, the Tour of Flanders is a different affair. The main characteristic of the course is its numerous hellingen - short, steep, often cobbled climbs - and thus success in Flanders does require a certain punch to tackle the slopes of the Flemish Ardennes.

 

In fact, the Tour of Flanders organizers never had a plan to deliberately use bad roads. In the early days, they were simply the only ones available. In the 50s Belgium began asphalting its roads but at that time, the race already had its own unique characteristics. When the first classic hills were surfaced, alarm bells started to ring and the organizers had to speak to the local men at bars to find all the hidden roads that could be used for the event. Those have since become an integral part of the race and are iconic places in the cycling world.

 

In fact, the climbs are now so famous that the exact layout of the course makes for a heavy debate. While the Tour of Flanders follows a well-known formula, the exact course differs from year to year. The distance and the number of climbs vary from year to year and the start and finishing cities have not always been the same. Having originally started in Gent, the race has taken off from Brugge in recent years.

 

For many years, however, the finale was the same. From 1973 to 2011, the race finished in Meerbeke and had its well-known finish with the famed Muur van Geraardsbergen and the Bosberg coming towards the end.

 

Instead, the two most recent editions have finished with a few laps on a circuit that included two of the hardest climbs in the region, the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg. The removal of the Muur sparked a heavy debate, with many cycling fans seeing the decision as a lack of respect for cycling history. The general perception was that the new course would be harder but things have turned out differently than expected. The circuit may contain two brutal climbs but also has a lot of big, long roads that has made it impossible to attack from afar. Instead, the race favourites have mostly been forced to wait to the final passages of the Kwaremont-Paterberg duo, making the race more controlled than it has been in the past.

 

In an attempt to avoid this scenario, the organizers have again changed the course for this year's edition. While the Kwaremont and Paterberg still feature as the final two climbs, the circuit format has been shelved and instead the famed Koppenberg has been included much closer to the end. The changes has been welcomed by the classics contenders while the faster finishers have been less pleased with the new, tougher course.

 

Even though both cobbled monuments have been dominated by Fabian Cancellara and Tom Boonen in the last couple of years, it is no surprise that the list of contenders differ somewhat for the two races. While Thor Hushovd has never been able to challenge for victory in Flanders, he is one of the most consistent performers in the North of France. With its combination of climbs and cobbles, the Tour of Flanders may be seen as an amalgamation of Paris-Roubaix and the Ardennes classics and so it is no wonder that certain riders have managed to excel in both Flanders and the Wallonian classics. Philippe Gilbert and Peter Sagan have mostly avoid Paris-Roubaix to target success in the Ardennes but have been perennial contenders in De Ronde  but this year the former will be absent as he fully focuses on the hilly classics while Sagan has decided to give Roubaix his first shot for several years.

 

Nonetheless, the list of winners include many of the same names and in fact one of the current stars is a shared record holder in both events. With his third victory in 2012, Boonen equaled the race record set by Achiel Buysse, Fiorenzo Magni, Eric Leman and Johan Museeuw, and the Belgian champion will start this year's race with the aim of entering the history books as the only rider to take a fourth victory in De Ronde.

 

Last year Boonen crashed out of the race very early and instead the race developed into an exciting duel between pre-race favourites Fabian Cancellara and Peter Sagan. The duo saved it all for the final time up the Kwaremont where a fierce acceleration by Cancellara left only the two riders at the top. They bridged across to Jurgen Roelandts who had made the smart move to anticipate the favourites but on the Paterberg there was no one stopping Cancellara. Despite Sagan digging really deep, he failed to match the Swiss powerhouse who time trialed his way to a solo win in Oudenaarde. Sagan combined forces with Roelandts before beating him in a sprint to take his second runner-up spot in a 2013 monument. All three riders will be back for the 2014 edition of the race and Cancellara and Sagan are again the two biggest favourites to come away with the win.

 

The course

As said, the organizers have listened to the many riders who criticized the revamped course used for the 2012 and 2013 editions for producing too conservative racing. Honouring the contract with finishing city Oudenaarde, there will be no return to the previous finale with the Muur and the Bosberg but the organizers have taken several steps to make the race tougher. The circuit format that had pleased the spectators but done little to encourage aggressive racing is gone and even though the organizers have been keen to make sure that the riders pass the final climbs several times, they have now put together a final part of the race that is more diverse, includes more climbs and allows less room for recovery.

 

The final combination of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg is a brutal one as both climbs are among the hardest in the region. In fact, the pair is a much tougher combination that the Muur-Bosberg one used in the past. What has made the past editions less aggressive were the many kilometres of flat roads on big roads on the finishing circuit that made it difficult to attack from afar. By abandoning the circuit format, the organizers have managed to reduce the distance between the climbs.

 

The riders will still go up the Kwaremont thrice and the Paterberg twice but the penultimate passages come much farther from the finish. From there, the riders take on a circuit that allows the most interesting novelty of the new course. The famed Koppenberg has always been a key point in the race but has been located way too early to make a real difference. This year it comes much closer to the finish and will kicks start a finale with no chance for recovery.

 

Despite the changes, the race still follows the same format that characterize most of the Flemish classics. The races all kick off with a long section of flat roads before heading into the Flemish Ardennes. Here they zigzag their way through the very tiny area of all the famous climbs. They cover several hellingen and pave sections before they head along flat roads finishing city. The narrow roads, steep climbs, and uncomfortable surface typically turn it into a race for the hardmen as the gradual selection means that only a handful are riders are usually left in contention by the time they return to the start and finish area. The difference between the races are their start and finishing cities, the number of climbs and their distance, with the Tour of Flanders of course being the longest.

 

Since 1998 the race has started in Brugge and this point of departure will be unchanged for the 2014 edition. That city is located close to the coast far from the Flemish Ardennes and so the 259km journey - the longest since 2009 - starts with a long flat southerly run to the city of Kortijk that will be reached after 34km of racing. Here the riders turn east to approach the heartland of the Flemish Ardennes, passing through Waregem - the finishing city of Dwars door Vlaanderen - along roads that are deadly flat.

 

After 90km, the riders reach the city of Oudenaarde where the race will finish some 170km later and now the race will change its nature. The long opening, flat stretch will have only served to accumulate fatigue in the riders' legs and allow the early break to take off. In many Flemish classics, a presence in the early may be a chance to feature deep into the finale of the race but due to the distance, this never happens in the Tour of Flanders. Hence, there is less incentive to be part of the action and the break may go clear a bit earlier than it has done in Dwars door Vlaanderen and E3 Harelbeke where the pace was very fierce right from the beginning.

 

After the passage of Oudenaarde, the nature of the race changes as the riders head to the south to go into the heartland of the Flemish Ardennes. The first obstacle comes at the 109.3km mark and as a novelty it will be one the landmark climbs of the race that kicks off the spectacle. First up is the Oude Kwaremont (2200m, 4%, max. 11.6%, 1500m of cobbles) and from here there will be little chance for recovery. The maximum distance between two successive climbs on the list of a total of 17 hellingen is 16km but in most cases it is less than 10km.

 

On the run-in to the Kwaremont, the battle for position will be fierce. It is still way too early for the favourites to show their hands but from now on it will be important to stay near the front almost all the time. Positioning means just as much as power and climbing skills in the Tour of Flanders as there is little room for passing riders on these narrow roads. Starting a climb too far back could easily mean that the race is over, especially if you are caught up behind one of the many crashes that are guaranteed to happen.

 

The riders have now started their first big loop that brings them over another 10 climbs. Continuing in a northeasterly direction, they go up the Kortekeer at the 119.5km mark while it is time for another one of the harder climbs, the Eikenberg (1200m, 5.2%, max. 10%, 1200m of cobbles) after 127.1km of racing. It leads into one of the steep, asphalted climbs, the Wolvenberg (645m, 7.9%,  max. 17.3%) which is located just 3km further up the road, and right at the top, the riders tackle the 800m Ruitenstraat pavé sector. It opens a difficult section with three successive pavés. Three kilometres later, the peloton tackles the 2650m Kerkgate which leads almost directlt to the shorter 350m Holleweg.

 

This phase of the race is very hectic as another one of the harder climbs, the steep Molenberg (463m, 7%, max. 14.2%, 300m of cobbles) - always a key climb in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad - comes just 6.8km later. 4.9km further up the road, it is time for more cobbles when the riders pass another key section of the Omloop course as they go over the 2300m long Paddestraat pavé. After that obstacle, it is finally time for some respite as there won't be any major challenges for the next 12.6km and it may give the riders one of their final chances to take on some food and go back to the team car.

 

These first climbs serve a number of purposes. First of all, they will all add up to make the race hard and turn the race into one of attrition. From the very start of the hilly zone, it is a gradual elimination with riders being constantly shed out the back. In addition to the constant battle for position that automatically ups the pace, we may us see a few teams try to make things harder by riding hard on the climbs.

 

More importantly, however, this phase is usually dominated by several attacks. It is still too early for the podium contenders to show their cards but it may be time to send their teammates up the road. The captains from some of the smaller teams may also be eager to get into the mix at this point as they are keen to make themselves visible and get a ticket to the finale of the race. The attacks may be launched on the climbs but very often, riders take off when the riders get back to bigger, flat roads and momentarily slow down.

 

The riders now turn around to head back in a southwesterly direction and this second half of the opening circuit is easier than the first one. First up is the 2000m Haaghoek pavé sector which leads directly into the asphalted Leberg (950m, 4.2%, max. 13.8%). 8km further up the road, it's time for the Valkenberg (540m, 8.1%, max. 12.8%) which is followed by a longer section of flat roads. 77.9km from the finish they go up the Kaperij (1000m, 5.5%, max. 9%) which precedes the second feed zone and the final chance to refuel for the final part.

 

The finale won't kick off just yet as the riders first have to go up the Kanarieberg (1000m, 7.7%, max. 14%) 70.5km from the finish but it is followed by the longest obstacle-free section of the hilly part of the race. This section from 100-70km to go is rather easy and could again give some of the podium contenders the chance to use a small lull in the pace to send riders up the road.

 

Things kick off in earnest 54.6km from the finish when the riders are back at the Oude Kwaremont (2200m, 4%, max. 11.6%, 1500m of cobbles) to tackle the famed climb for the second time. It leads almost directly into another one of the most brutal Flemish hellingen, the Paterberg (360m, 12.9%, max. 20.3%, 360m of cobbles) as the riders tackle the pair of climbs for the first time. When they return 40km later, those two climbs will be the final obstacles of the race.

 

The riders now start the final, new circuit in the Flemish Ardennes and this is one is much harder than the one used for the previous editions. The most notable feature is the fact that it contains the famous Koppenberg (600m, 11.6%, max. 22%, 600m of cobbles) which comes just 44.6km from the line. This is far closer to the finish than in the past for this brutal ascent which is never used for any of the other Flemish classics and was taken out of the course for several years after a bad accident in the 90s. Since then, the road surface has been improved but it remains one of the hardest climbs in Flanders.

 

To go up the Kwaremont, the Paterberg and the Koppenberg within just 10km is simply brutal and now it is time for the favourites to kick into action. It will be interesting to see what role this new harder section will play but it would be no surprise to see the biggest names show their cards already at this point and even though we may see some regrouping after the Koppenberg, the group of favourites should be much smaller than it has been in the past.

 

After the Koppenberg, the riders tackle the 2000m pavé sector Mariaborrestraat and 5.4km after the famed ascent, the riders go up the Steenbeekdries (700m, 5.3%, max.6.7%). Then it is time for another one of the hardest climbs in Flanders.  This year the Taaienberg (530m, 6.6%, max. 15.8%, 500m of cobbles) - Tom Boonen's favourite climb - comes deep into the finale just 36.8km from the finish and so will play a more important role than it has done in the past.

 

After the Taaienberg, thing get a bit easier and this could be what prevents too early attacks from the favourites. For the next 20.1km, the only obstacle is the long gradual ascent of the Kruisberg (2500m, 5%, max. 9%, 450m of cobbles) and this section may play an important role. This was where Jurgen Roelandts went up the road one year ago and all the podium contenders who are just below the biggest favourites, will want to use this section to anticipate the attacks from the race favourites. If the selection has been big in the tough section a few kilometres earlier, domestique resources will be limited and it will be hard to control what could be a very aggressive part of the race.

 

As it has been the case in the previous years, all is set to be decided on the Kwaremont-Paterberg duo. The first one comes 16.7km from the finish while the latter ends the hostilities 13.3km from the line. Those two climbs are some of the hardest in the race but are very different. Kwaremont is a long, gradual ascent which is more about power and endurance than acceleration skills while the Paterberg is a short, brutally steep ramp where it is possible to accelerate almost from the bottom to the top. Last year, Sagan and Cancellara went clear on the former before the Swiss got rid of the Slovakian on the latter. This will be the scene of the final attacks from the favourites and where Cancellara needs to drop a rider like Sagan if he wants to win the race.

 

The final 13.3km consist of a long northeasterly run back to Oudenaarde along flat, rather big roads. At this point it will be a pursuit all the way back to the line and it will be the scene of a real tactical battle if a few riders are still together at this point. In the last two years, the first group behind the leading three riders have been rather big but the new, harder course should mean that the selection in the finale will be much greater. The final turn comes 8km from the finish and then it is straight all the way to the finish on the Minderbroederstraat where a deserved winner of the Tour of Flanders will be crowned.

 

 

 

The weather

The outcome of only very few races depend as much on the weather as the Tour of Flanders. Even though the course is hard and selective, the difficulty increases dramatically if the conditions are windy, cold, and rainy. If the conditions are brutal, it becomes a real race of attrition while the race opens up for a lot more riders if the weather is nice. Many cycling fans don't regard it as a real edition of De Ronde if the riders haven't had to battle the Belgian rain and cold.

 

This year the riders have had unusually pleasant conditions for the first part of the holy period of Belgian cycling as there has been almost summerlike conditions in Belgium. That will have changed for Sunday's race but it won't be one of the really epic editions.

 

It should be an entirely cloudy day, with the temperatures reaching a rather pleasant maximum of 15 degrees towards the end of the race. At the start, it should be dry but there is a chance that a few showers will make things tough later in the race.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southerly direction which means that there will be headwind on the long run from Brugge to the Flemish Ardennes. On the final circuits, the riders will have all kind of wind directions but importantly, there will be a cross-tailwind on the flat run back to the finish in Oudenaarde. On the long straight road that leads the final few kilometres to the finish, there will even be a direct tailwind, meaning that it will be easier for a solo rider or small groups to stay away after the final passage of the Paterberg.

 

The favourites

When the race finished in Meerbeke with the late passages of the Muur and the Bosberg, everybody knew what to expect from De Ronde but with the new, harder course, all rider will be a bit more wary. Nobody knows exactly what difference the changes will make. When the route was changed for the 2012 edition, it was also expected to make the race harder, and it turned it into a waiting game as everybody was afraid of blowing up too early. This year there is a risk that something similar may happen but the outcome of last year's race should make things a bit more aggressive.

 

The 2013 race made it evident that no one was able to match Fabian Cancellara on the hellingen and only Peter Sagan got close to the fabulous Swiss. Jurgen Roelandts proved how you can earn yourself a podium spot by anticipating the race favourites and be ahead at the time when Cancellara makes his decisive attack. A similar plan worked out in the Paris-Roubaix where several riders earned themselves a ticket to the finale of the race by moving ahead of Cancellara to force him on the back foot.

 

Luca Paolini is just one of the riders who has done nothing to hide his intention of trying a similar move in this year's race and Roelandts will be equally eager to repeat last year's success. Omega Pharma-Quick Step have the strength in numbers to ride aggressively and so we can expect a rather animated finale from a bit further out.

 

Already from the very beginning, we can expect the early foundations for such moves to be laid. Last year Lotto Belisol kept sending riders up the road to have assistance for Roelandts later in the race. Many teams will be keen to a rider in the early break and so the very start of the stage could be a very fast and tactical affair. When the peloton reaches the hilly zone, we can expect more attacks, with teams trying to prepare the attacks from their main riders.

 

The podium contenders probably won't try their hand until the final, very difficult circuit. The moment for the riders to go on the attack may not necessarily be on the climbs but could easily be on the flat stretches where the pace briefly goes down. The Karemont-Paterberg-Koppenberg-Taaienberg quartet will make a natural selection that only leaves very few riders in the group of favourites. The following mostly flat 20km are perfect for attacks as the biggest names will have very few domestiques left and the race will be difficult to control. We expect this part of the race to be rather animated, with Trek trying to keep things under control for Cancellara who will probably make his decisive attacks the final time up the Kwaremont and the Paterberg.

 

He may have failed to repeat his E3 Harelbeke win but Fabian Cancellara is the overwhelming favourite to win this year's Tour of Flanders. The way he came back from being caught up in the race-changing crash 40km from the finish was an exceptional demonstration of strength. TV footage showed how far behind he was when he started his chase and at that moment the battle for position for the Paterberg and Kwaremont meant that the peloton was going full gas. Moments later things exploded on those two climbs and the pace never went down at any moment. Nonetheless, Cancellara - with dutiful support from an equally impressive Stijn Devolder - got to within just a few seconds of the leaders.

 

Cancellara has often had bad luck in E3. In 2012 his hopes were dashed by another crash and in 2011 he had a disastrous puncture, only to make an equally impressive performance to chase back and even ride away from all his rivals to win the race. He went on to dominate both cobbled monuments and even though he failed to win both, it was only a question of team tactics and not a sign of weakness from the Swiss.

 

His E3 showing is not the only indication that he is fully ready for Sunday's race. In Tirreno-Adriatico he beat Bradley Wiggins and Tony Martin in the final time trial to set his best-ever time on the San Benedetto del Tronto course - even better than when he won that stage twice. Many regarded his lack of aggression in Milan-Sanremo as a sign of weakness but he later said that the race had been so easy that it made no sense to do anything else than wait for the sprint. To finish 2nd in a field that contained most of the best sprinters in the world was another sign of his excellent condition.

 

The Trek team do nothing to hide that Cancellara is fully ready for the challenge and history proves that nobody can keep up with him on the hellingen when he is at his best. Last year Peter Sagan got close but when Cancellara gave it an extra bit on the Paterberg, even the talented Slovakian had to admit defeat.

 

Nobody will beat Cancellara on pure strength and so the way to tackle his seemingly insurmountable power is by using team tactics. That nearly cost him the win in last year's Paris-Roubaix and it pushed him down into second in the 2011 edition of the Hell of the North. Having learnt from his unnecessary long-distance attack in the 2011 Tour of Flanders. Cancellara will probably wait to the final time up the Kwaremont - whose long gradual slope makes it the climb that suits him the best - to make his decisive attack.

 

The challenge for the Trek team will be to keep things under control until that point. As already said, most of the favourites will have a plane to anticipate his attack and it requires a lot of strength from the black-clad riders to make sure that a dangerous group doesn't go clear in the run-in to the Kwaremont.

 

In the past, Cancellara has often paid the price for having too little team support but that won't be the case in 2014. In fact, the Trek team seems to be the best of the rest just behind the always impressive Omega Pharma-Quick Step formation. After a couple of poor seasons, Stijn Devolder has been riding brutally strong these last few weeks. He climbed excellently in Tirreno and capped it off with a very strong time trial. He played a key role for Cancellara at E3 and he was the driving force in the late race attacks that almost stayed away at Dwars door Vlaanderen and Gent-Wevelgem. Furthermore, Gregory Rast is riding excellently at the moment, with his Milan-Sanremo showing being particularly impressive. Yaroslav Popovych and Marcel Irizar are also riding well while young Jasper Stuyven has proved his potential in the cobbled races right from the beginning of his career. Only Hayden Roulston seems to have slightly mistimed his condition but Cancellara finds himself with the best support he has had for year.

 

Cancellara will be hopeful that Devolder and Rast will both make it over the Koppenberg the final time and if that happens, those two riders will sacrifice themselves completely to make sure that no one is too far ahead by the time they reach the Kwaremont. If they accomplish that mission, Cancellara will be fresh for his final attack and then he will be very hard to beat.

 

Last  year Cancellara's biggest rival was Peter Sagan and it is hard to argue that it should be any different this time around. The E3 Harelbeke is usually the big dress rehearsal for Flanders and the winner of that race is rarely too far off the mark in Vlaanderen's Mooiste. This year Sagan stood on the top step of the podium to prove that he is ready for the big one in Flanders.

 

However, Sagan faces a big task to keep up with Cancellara in the finale. Among the race favourites, Sagan is undoubtedly the best climber but he is less comfortable than Cancellara on the cobbles. If all the climbs had been on asphalted roads, it is hard to imagine anyone dropping Sagan but history proves that the Slovakian finds it tough to keep up with his Swiss rival on the cobbled ascents. Last year Sagan failed to keep up with Cancellara on the Kwaremont at E3 and on the Paterberg at Flanders.

 

At the same time, Sagan doesn't seem to be as strong as he was one year ago. It all started when Michal Kwiatkowski beat him on the final rise to the Piazza del Ciampo at Strade Bianche. At the time, the Pole got all the credit but in fact it was also a sign of weakness from Sagan. It all culminated in his below-par showing in Milan-Sanremo where he simply ran out of legs in the final sprint. He may have won E3 Harelbeke but in fact he was dropped by Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and John Degenkolb on the Paterberg. He has tried to write it down to a question of tire pressure but it is just one of several small signs that Sagan is not at 100%.

 

Earlier in the year, Sagan said that he would try to hit peak condition a bit later this year and he may be hopeful that this is the explanation for his signs of weakness. At the same time, Sagan has one major advantage: his sprint. In fact, his task is rather simple. He doesn't have to go on the attack himself, it will all be a question of staying with Cancellara. If he manages to do, he will have a great shot at victory as he should usually be the fastest of the pair. The main question is whether Cancellara will ride to the finish with Sagan or if it would allow for some regrouping if the Swiss can rid himself of his Slovakian rival.

 

In the past, Sagan has lost a few big races due to a lack of team support and even though Maciej Bodnar and Kristijan Koren are both showing solid condition, none of them are real specialists in these races. In fact, he can only hope to have Oscar Gatto at his side after the Koppenberg.

 

Due to Cancellara's presence, however, his lack of team support may not be too much of a problem. The strong Trek team will do their utmost to keep things under control for the final passage of the Kwaremont and Paterberg and they have a shared interest with Sagan. The Cannondale leader may not need to use his team that much but an untimely puncture may of course be more costly if he is isolated. Otherwise, his strategy is pretty simple. It is all about trying to follow Cancellara and then use his sprint to take the win.

 

Cancellara and Sagan may be the strongest individuals in the race but the best team is undoubtedly Omega Pharma-Quick Step. No squad has as many potential winners as the Belgians that are always under pressure to come away with a result. Of course all eyes will be on Tom Boonen who is the natural leader of the team but the Belgian doesn't appear to be firing on all cylinder at the moment and instead we think than another Omega Pharma-Quick Step rider will shine.

 

Niki Terpstra has obviously taken a step up in 2014. In fact, the indications already were there at the end of 2013 when he rode excellently in the Canadian WorldTour races that should actually have been too hard for him. This year he has been flying right from the beginning, winning the Tour of Qatar overall and taking a second Dwars door Vlaanderen before going on to take second at E3. He found himself as an almost guaranteed winner of the Driedaagse van De Panne after some excellent riding in the first two stages but a destroyed pedal derailed his final time trial. Despite riding only with one and a half leg due to the mechanical failure and losing more than 10 seconds in the beginning, he still took 19th to end up fourth on GC.

 

This was just another indication of his strength but his real standout performances came in the cobbled classics. In Dwars door Vlaanderen, he was so superior at the Paterberg that the TV cameras almost failed to catch his race-winning attack and in E3, he seemed to be comfortable when Geraint Thomas ripped the peloton to pieces on the Kwaremont. In both races, he seemed to be one of the two strongest riders in the race and only Sagan's superior sprinting denied him the win in the latter race.

 

By finishing third in last year's Roubaix, Terpstra has proved that he can handle the distance and he may enjoy more freedom than Boonen. Omega Pharma-Quick Step can expect to have at least four riders (Boonen, Terpstra, Stybar, and Vandenbergh) in the group of favourites after the Koppenberg and need to use their strength in numbers to go on the attack to try to anticipate Cancellara.

 

Boonen's status means that he won't be allowed to go anywhere and so it will be left to the other Omega Pharma-Quick Step riders to try to get up the road. Due to his recent showings, things may be a bit harder for Terpstra but at the moment he is so strong that he may escape despite being a marked man. He may then ride away from everyone else on the final climbs and history proves that he is very hard to reel in.

 

Terpstra may also be strong enough to go with the decisive attacks on the Kwaremont and Paterberg but he has an obvious handicap. He is not very fast in the sprint and will have to get rid of both Cancellara and Sagan before the finish. If a small group arrives at the finis together, he may use a tactical battle between the race favourites to escape and if that happens, he will be a danger man.

 

At the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Sep Vanmarcke was clearly the strongest rider in the race and he has the potential to be one of the real greats on the Belgian cobbles. Last year he proved his potential when he came back from a disastrous crash in Tirreno that almost ended his cobbled campaign, to match Cancellara pedal stroke for pedal stroke on the cobbles in Roubaix. This year he has had a seamless build-up and he should only be stronger than he was one year ago.

 

We have no doubt that Vanmarcke has the potential to be added to the list of titans for the cobbled classics that currently consists of Cancellara, Sagan and Boonen but unfortunately he seems to have mistimed his condition a bit. When he returned to the cobbles after E3, he didn't seem to have the strength he had at the Omloop. In that race he was hampered by an almost endless streak of bad luck which forced him to chase back on several occasions and this certainly cost him some energy. However, he was not even close to following the best on the Kwaremont and was seen struggling far back when the lead group exploded.

 

He showed signs of improvement when he made the peloton explode on the Kemmelberg in Gent-Wevelgem to draw clear a select 7-rider group but it can't take away the impression that he is not at 100%. Since then, however, he has had one week to improve his condition and last year he proved how fast things can change for the talented Belgian. He is one of the very few who has the top level to potentially match the best on the final climbs and he has a very solid sprint at the end. He has beaten Boonen at the end of Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and last Sunday he was fourth in the Gent-Wevelgem sprint. On paper, he is not as fast as Sagan but after 260km, things may be different. If things come together for him, Vanmarcke may take his big breakthrough win on Sunday.

 

When we watched him beat André Greipel in a sprint at the Tour of Qatar, we were convinced that Tom Boonen would get back to his 2012 level. After suffering in the Omloop cold, he backed it up with an excellent performance in Kuurne and some solid climbing at Paris-Nice. However, personal problems forces him out of Sanremo and since then Boonen hasn't looked like his former self.

 

His performance in Dwars door Vlaanderen was one of the worst in a cobbled race for several years and it was almost humiliating to see Cancellara pass him on the Kwaremont in E3 despite the Swiss having been riding full gas in his chase for several kilometres. In that race he was hampered by an injured thumb from an earlier crash but it came on the back of his poor showing in Waregem. In Gent-Wevelgem, he seemed to be struggling to keep up with the best on the Kemmelberg but he claimed to have had excellent legs for the sprint and was extremely frustrated to have been boxed in and so missed out on what he saw as an excellent winning opportunity.

 

Boonen has the big disadvantage that he won't be allowed any kind of freedom. Unlike many other contenders, he can't anticipate Cancellara's attack and he can only wait for things to unfold. If he wants to win this race, he has to follow the best or hope that a tactical battle allows some regrouping to take place after the final climb. In that case, he can count on his excellent sprint which is one of the best at the end of 260 hard kilometres. As Boonen doesn't seem to have the best legs, however, it is hard to imagine him keeping up with the best and so it will be difficult to take that record fourth win in 2014.

 

Several years ago, Geraint Thomas proved that he is extremely skilled in the cobbled races but he still hasn't had the chance to back it up. In 2012, he missed the classics due to his focus on the Olympics and last year crashes plagued him in all the big classics. This year, however, he seems to finally get the chance to show just how good he is on the Belgian hellingen.

 

In E3 Harelbeke, it was his fierce attack on the Kwaremont that ended up deciding the race. Only Terpstra and Degenkolb could keep up with the Welshman when he put down the hammer and he can only regret that Sagan and Vandenbergh later bridged across. In the end of that race, he appeared to be fatigued and so had to settle for third but his performance on the climbs proved that he will be one to watch in Sunday's race.

 

Thomas' performance in Paris-Nice is another testament to his current condition and he is one of the select few who has the strength to match the best on the hellingen. He is part of a strong Sky team that can also count on Edvald Boasson Hagen, Salvatore Puccio and maybe even Bradley Wiggins and so could have a few cards to play in the finale. While Boasson Hagen may save himself for a sprint, Thomas has the aggressive spirit that could see him anticipate the favourites and he has a solid sprint to finish it off if he arrives at the finish as part of a smaller group.

 

Only one thing speaks against a strong Thomas showing: the Welshman still hasn't proved that he can handle the long distances. Often it has been due to bad luck but he still hasn't featured at the end of one of the big classics. At E3, the distance seemed to take its toll near the end and so there is a risk that he may be paying the price at crunch time. Nonetheless, Thomas is currently one of the strongest riders in the race and an obvious winner candidate.

 

The third strong card in the Omega Pharma-Quick Step camp is Zdenek Stybar. Until now, he hasn't shown too much in the Flemish classics but he has all the skills to excel in these races. He is excellent on short, steep climbs and he handles the cobbles well as he proved in last year's Paris-Roubaix.

 

In E3 Harelbeke, he was caught behind the big crash but seemed to be rather comfortable when he followed Cancellara back to the pointy end of the race. Gent-Wevelgem didn't offer him many chances to prove his skills but he seemed to be one of the strongest on the Kemmelberg. His Roubaix performance proves that he can go the distance and he has a very fast sprint if he arrives at the finish as part of a small group.

 

Stybar's main asset, however, is his strong team. As already said, we expect Omega Pharma-Quick Step to have strength in numbers after the Koppenberg and then it will be time to send riders up the road to anticipate Cancellara. It will be Stybar's, Terpstra's and Vandenbergh's job to go on the attack and Stybar is one of the few who should be strong enough to finish it off. He may not be able to follow Cancellara on the climbs but if he gets up the road, he may be there in the finale. If that happens, his fast sprint will make him one to watch.

 

John Degenkolb may be known as a sprinter but in fact he is more of a classics specialists. He already proved his potential in the cobbled races in his first professional season at HTC but last year he failed to reach peak condition for the classics. That's certainly not the case in 2014 as he seems to be stronger than ever before.

 

When Thomas ripped the race to pieces on the Kwaremont in E3, Degenkolb and Terpstra were the only riders who could keep up with him, with even Sagan falling off the pace. Degenkolb copied that excellent performance two days later on the Kemmelberg when he easily followed the best as a 7-rider group went clear over the top. Later in the day he proved his great condition by winning the final sprint and it made up for the disappointment from Milan-Sanremo where he was also riding comfortably on the climbs until a puncture at the bottom of Poggio ruined his race.

 

In E3, Degenkolb lost contact when Sagan attacked on the penultimate climb and unsurprisingly, the big German is less comfortable on the asphalted roads. On the cobbled climbs, however, he is currently one of the strongest and everybody knows how fast he is, especially after a long race of attrition. He may not be able to go with Cancellara but if the favourites start looking at each other and a few more riders manage to rejoin  the front, Degenkolb should be there and then he will be a danger man.

 

For many years, Greg Van Avermaet has had the role of lieutenant in the biggest classics but while the captains have usually failed, he has always saved the day for BMC. The Belgian rarely fails to make it into the top 10 in the classics, being it on the cobbles or in the Ardennes, and this year he has finally got the chance to lead BMC in a monument as he is the designated and sole leader for Sunday's race.

 

In E3, Van Avermaet didn't miss much to make it to the top of the Kwaremont with the best and he seemed to be riding equally well in Gent-Wevelgem. However, he may not be strong enough to follow the very best and he will probably have to anticipate if he wants a spot on the podium. In the Omloop, he proved that he is not afraid of attacking in the finale and he will probably enter the race with a plan to ride offensively. Unfortunately, his BMC team doesn't seem to be very strong as neither Taylor Phinney nor Thor Hushovd are firing on all cylinders and he may be isolated in the finale. He could easily be the only BMC rider in the group of favourites after the Koppenberg but if he ends up in the right move, a podium spot is within reach.

 

Finally, we will point to Dries Devenyns. In the past few years, the Belgian has been more focused on the Ardennes but after joining Giant-Shimano he has given the cobbles a dedicated shot. That seems to be a wise decision as he has clearly been one of the strongest in the two first WorldTour races on the cobbles.

 

In those races, he has been riding loyally for Degenkolb and this will again be his task on Sunday. Giant-Shimano, however, cannot be expected to carry the responsibility and so it could be a wise strategy to send Devenyns up the road ahead of the Kwaremont and Paterberg. It may be a good idea for the favourites to keep an eye on the Belgian as he seems to have the strength to finish off such a move.

 

***** Fabian Cancellara

**** Peter Sagan, Niki Terpsta

*** Sep Vanmarcke, Tom Boonen, Geraint Thomas

** Zdenek Stybar, John Degenkolb, Greg Van Avermaet, Dries Devenyns

* Stijn Vandenbergh, Tony Gallopin, Sylvain Chavanel, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Luca Paolini, Sebastian Langeveld, Jurgen Roelandts, Tyler Farrar, Borut Bozic, Alexander Kristoff, Arnaud Demare, Daniele Bennati