The Dubai Tour has come to an end but the block of racing in the Middle East continues with the race that got it off the ground. While the Dubai race was mostly a star parade, the preparation for the cobbled classics kicks off in earnest the next 6 days when sprinters and one-day specialists battle it out in the crosswinds in the Qatari desert. Let the war begin!

 

The idea was certainly not an obvious one but ASO had the guts to give it their full backing when the wealthy Qatari authorities came up with the novel idea of hosting a major bike race in a part of the world that had no cycling history and no topographical challenges at all. With the locals offering the financial support and ASO providing the cycling knowledge, the partnership has resulted in the creation of one of the marquee events on the early-season calendar.

 

At a first glance, one would wonder why anyone would travel all the way to Qatar to participate in a race that has no climbs at all! In the roadbook, organizers ASO have not even bothered making profiles of the stages, knowing that they contain no information at all. Nonetheless, the race has a very good reputation and for many it is an inalienable part of the perfect classics preparation.

 

Having just watched the new Dubai Tour which was a pretty controlled affair for the sprinters, one would expect it to be the same in Qatar. And stages certainly can unfold in this predictable way and it is unlikely not to happen on some days. What makes the race unique and perfect classics preparation is the strong desert wind that blows on the long, straight roads.

 

On days where there is no wind or the direction is unfavourable, one can expect to see the usual break-chase-catch-sprint scenario that dominates so many races. When the climatic conditions are right, however, the race changes to a war zone where only the strongest survive. At extreme speeds, the riders battle for position whenever they reach a corner that will see them change the direction and echelons are almost guaranteed to wreak havoc on the peloton at some point in the race.

 

It is this kind of racing that turns the race into the place to be for the riders who target the cobbled classics. There is no better place to prepare for the battle for position that precedes the key climbs in the Tour of Flanders or the key pavé sectors in the Paris-Roubaix. Unsurprisingly, the race is also a rather dangerous one and we are almost guaranteed to see a few riders crash out of the race and get their spring campaign ruined.

 

No one can guarantee the spectacle and we are certain to witness a few traditional sprint stages as well. However, history proves that at least one stage is likely to turn into a real battle and it is all about being ready when the war begins.

 

Nobody should watch the Tour of Qatar to see any kind of spectacular nature or beautiful landscape. The race is held on straight roads surrounded by sand but what the race lacks in visual quality, it certainly has in excitement and drama when the wind is blowing strongly from the right direction.

 

When  the Tour of Qatar was held for the first time in 2002, it was a stand-alone event that gradually developed into an important part of the early-season calendar. Since then, ASO have added the Tour of Oman to form a very solid block of racing in the Middle East and with the addition of the Dubai Tour, one can now get in 20 days of racing on the Arabian peninsula. That may be a bit too much for most riders and only a few will do the entire schedule, especially since there is no rest day between the Dubai and Qatar races. With Dubai suiting the time trialists, Qatar appealing to the classics riders, and Oman being the first big rendezvous for the climbers, however, the Middle East offers a rather complete race series for the riders to fine-tune their condition.

 

The dominant figure in Qatar has certainly been Tom Boonen. The Belgian classics specialist has always come out with all guns blazing and has won the race an amazing 4 times, taking 18 individual stage wins in the process. He made his debut when he finished 7th in the 2004 edition of the race and his poorest performance came in 2011 when he could only manage 11th. Apart from those two editions, he has never finished outside the top 4! His track record is certainly no wonder as no one can match Boonen when it comes to battling for position and he is the rider who is in the front echelon every day. If one adds his fast sprint to the equation, you have all the characteristics to shine in the Qatari desert.

 

Boonen has only missed the race once since he made his debut. It happened last year when an infected elbow almost cost him his arm. Instead, it was new teammate Mark Cavendish who got his career with Omega Pharma-Quick Step off to a fantastic start, dominating the sprint stages by winning on the final four days and benefiting from the best team in the business to keep him protected in the wind. Bonus seconds were enough for him to take a convincing win over the BMC duo of Brent Bookwalter and Taylor Phinney who had benefited from a breakaway win for the former on the opening stage and a team time trial win on day 2 to gain an advantage. Cavendish will again hand over captaincy duties to Boonen after riding in Dubai while Phinney has also preferred the new race this time around. Bookwalter will concentrate on his Giro preparations with Cadel Evans and this means that no one from last year's podium will be back for the 2014 edition of the event.

 

The course

To get an idea of who is going to win a race, the most important aspect is usually to study the route. For the Tour of Qatar, things are different though. The course designers always put together a route that brings the riders to all corners of the small Middle East state, using the same roads numerous times throughout the week. Making sure that the riders will go in all different directions, they hope that the riders will at some point hit a crosswind section, meaning that the real information about the race will be found in the weather forecast and not in the roadbook.

 

In the past, the race consisted of 5 road stages that zigzagged its way through the country, with the capital of Doha being the central location where the riders can stay throughout the duration of the event. In 2007 a novelty was introduced when the race was extended to 6 days by adding an opening 6km team time trial to kick off the event. Since then, the race has had a short TTT each year, with 2011 being the only exception. On that occasion, the race started with an individual time trial and for the 2014 edition, the organizers have again preferred to test the riders individual abilities against the clock. In the past, the organizers have made sure not to make the TTs too long so as not to make them too important for the GC but this year's 10.9km race against the clock has a distance that makes sure that no one will win the race without possessing solid time trialing skills.

 

However, that is the only major change compared to recent editions and apart from that the 5 road stages follow a very traditional format, visiting many of the places that have featured in the past and using the sparse, well-known roads in the Qatari desert. As it is early in the season, the stages will all be rather short, making for some fast and intense racing.

 

Stage 1:

For the third year in a row, the time trial will not be held on the opening day, with the race again kicking off with a road stage. The 135.5km stage starts on the east coast on the outskirts of the capital of Doha, at the Dukhan Beach in Al Wakra. From there, the riders head south to the city of Mesaieed where the first intermediate sprint will be contested at the 20km mark.

 

The peloton now turn right and start a long journey that will see them cross the peninsula before hitting the west coast and the site of the second intermediate sprint with 28kmto go. There they will turn right and continue in a northern direction for most of the remaining part of the stage.

 

Just before the 4km to go banner, the riders will turn left in two roundabouts to travel in a western direction for the final part of the stage. The final part mostly consists of a long, straight road that bends slightly to the right and will see the riders go straight through 3 roundabouts. The final one comes 1.3km from the finish and leads to another roundabout just 550m from the line. The riders will turn right to head along the coast up the flat finishing straight that has a width of 7m, to end the stage in Dukhan Beach.

 

Regardless of the wind direction, we should be in for a real spectacle if the wind is strong enough as the riders will either have a crosswind on the long journey across the peninsula or on the final 28km stretch along the coast.

 

Last year Dukhan Beach hosted its first stage finish on an opening stage that was not too different from the one planned for this year's edition. On that occasion, the peloton split in the crosswinds, with Brent Bookwalter, Martin Elmiger and Gregory Rast escaping in the finale to hold off the peloton. Bookwalter won the sprint as the trio was caught by the first bigger group just on the line and set himself up for his overall second place.

 

 

Stage 2:

The second stage will be a Tour of Qatar classic as the 160.5km route - the longest in the race - is an unchanged copy of one that has also been used for the 2012 and 2013 editions of the race. The stage will start at the Camel Race Track in the middle of the country, allowing photographers to shoot some very iconic photos of the riders in some unfamiliar surroundings. From there, the riders will head west as they approach the coast.

 

Just before the first intermediate sprint which comes at the 37.5km mark, the riders will turn right to start a longer section that will bring them to the northern part of the country. However, the organizers are keen to offer as many changes in direction as possible and instead of continuing along the main road, they will zigzag their way through the country by making four turns before getting back to the main thoroughfare.

 

With 50km to go, there will be a right-hand turn that sends the riders in a predominantly eastern direction. Again there will be two sharp corners that lead to the final stretch that takes them to the road which heads to the finish in Al Khor Corniche in a southeastern direction. Having reached the coast, the riders will turn right in a roundabout 3.7km from the finish. 1.3km from the line they will turn 180 degrees in a roundabout before getting onto the coastal finishing straight that has a number of sweeping corners. The road has a width of 8m and is again completely flat.

 

A stage has finished in Al Khor every year since 2005 when Lars Michaelsen was the first to win there, except for 2007. In 2006, Tom Boonen won two stages there. In 2008, Alberto Loddo and Danilo Napolitano won bunch sprints while Roger Hammond was first across the line on a dramatic stage in 2009.

 

In 2010, Francesco Chicchi won a straightforward bunch sprint while Boonen was first across the line on a very windy opening stage in 2011. The past two years have seen the Corniche host bunch sprint finishes, with Mark Cavendish triumphing on both occasions.

 

 

Stage 3:

The third day of the race will be the one for the second individual time trial in the race's history and while much of the race will be determined in the crosswinds, the 10.9km race against the clock will open up significant time gaps that will play a crucial role in the final GC.

 

The stage will be held on the Lusail Circuit just north of Doha where the team time trial took place in 2012, won by Garmin-Sharp. The area hosts a shooting complex, a motorcycle circuit and the Technical Center of the Qatar Cycling Federation which the riders will pass along their way.

 

Compared to the inaugural time trial of the 2011 edition which was a very short and very technical affair held in the city of Doha and which was won by Lars Boom ahead of Fabian Cancellara, at 10.9km this stage is much longer. However, it remains very technical and contains several corners which require the riders to get back up to speed.

 

The stage is held on a short 5km road that takes the riders from the start through two roundabouts where they will turn right. Having reached the shooting complex, they will make a U-turn in another roundabout before going all the way back to the site of the start and finish which they will pass with a little less than 4km to go.

 

Having turned right in another roundabout, they reach the second turning point a little less than 2km from the finish. Having again turned around in a roundabout, they continue back to the finish, with the final left-hand turn in a roundabout coming 650m from the line. With no less than 8 roundabouts in a 10.9km course, acceleration and technical abilities will be just as important as brute force.

 

 

Stage 4:

The riders will be back to fight potential crosswinds on the fourth stage which is almost a reversal of the opening one. This time the riders will head out from the stage 1 finish in Dukhan on the west coast before heading south along the coast as they start their 135km journey.

 

After 24km, they will make a left-hand turn to head across the peninsula - contesting two intermediate sprints along the way - with only a few slight changes in direction along the way. They will mostly follow the same road as they did on stage one, albeit in the opposite direction. Just after the feed zone, they will deviate from that pattern as they head straight to the city of Al Wakra which was the starting site for the opening stage.

 

Having reached the coast, they will again turn right to head down the coast to the finish in Mesaieed. 2.5km from the finish, they will turn left in a roundabout to travel in a predominantly western direction for the final part of the stage. They will go straight through a roundabout 1.7km from the finish and from there is a dead flat and straight road all the way to the finish. Again there will be an opportunity for crosswind action regardless of the wind direction as there will either be a crosswind in the long middle section or in the final 22km of the stage.

 

Mesaieed has hosted four stage finishes in the past. A young Greg Van Avermaet took the first one in 2007 from a breakaway while Tom Boonen won a bunch sprint in 2010. In 2011, Heinrich Haussler took the win on a windy day while Mark Cavendish came out on top in last year's bunch sprint.

 

 

Stage 5:

The fifth stage sees the riders return to the northern part of the country which has been the scene of some rather dramatic racing in the past. The 159km stage is the only one that does not get close to the Doha area and starts in at the Al Zubara Fort on the northwest coast of the peninsula. From there the riders will travel in a southeastern direction before making two rapid changes in direction. Just after contesting the first intermediate sprint, the riders reach the North Road at the 47km mark where they turn left to travel straight north.

 

After 75.5km, the riders hit the circuit that will be the scene of the final part of the stage and 20km further up the road, they cross the finish line from the first line. They will now do one full lap of a 36.5km almost rectangular circuit that mostly has the riders travelling in a northwestern and southeastern direction.  Getting to the finish line for the second time, the riders will do 2 laps on a shortened 13.5km circuit that mostly uses some of the same roads as the bigger one. The finish is rather straightforward as the road will only bend slightly to the left just after the 2km to go mark while the last challenge will be a roundabout that the riders will head straight through, just 750m from the finish. From there, it is a straight road with a width of 7m all the way to the finish.

 

With the final circuits offering plenty of changes in direction, the scene is set for a true drama if the wind is blowing strongly, and there will be plenty of nervousness and need for attention. That was the case when a stage first finished in the city in 2009, with Mark Cavendish making the selection and beating Heinrich Haussler in the final sprint. One year later Tom Boonen won a rather straightforward bunch sprint and the Belgian was again the winner in 2012, albeit after a big drama that saw him arrive at the finish as part of a select group that only consisted of Fabian Cancellara, Tom Veelers, Juan Antonio Flecha, Gert Steegmans, and the Belgian classics star. Last year the stage again ended with a classic bunch sprint which was again won by Cavendish.

 

 

Stage 6:

With one exception, the road stages of the Tour of Qatar can all end in a true crosswind battle. The one exception comes on the final day. Like plenty of other stage races, the race ends with a criterium-like race in the capital, with the riders ending their stay in Qatar by doing 10 laps of a 5.7km circuit on the Doha Corniche.

 

The stage has varied a bit in length from year to year but has mostly had the same format every year since the inaugural edition in 2002. This year it will be a bit shorter than usual at just 113.5 and will again start at the Sealine Beach Resort south of the capital as it has been the case for most of the races. From there the riders will head straight north through the cities of Mesaieed and Al Wakra before reaching the final circuit after 55km and crossing the line for the first time at the 56.5km mark.

 

The riders will then start their first of 10 laps on the 5.7km circuit which is a banana-shaped one held completely on the main coastal road in the city centre. The riders will simply travel 2.6km in one direction before making a very broad U-turn and head back in the opposite direction. The road has a slight bending trend but is completely flat. The final U-turn comes 1.3km from the finish and from there the scene is set for a big bunch sprint on a very wide road with a width of 11m.

 

The wind could potentially play a role in the first half of the stage but with the circuit being less exposed, there is plenty of time to bring things back together. It will be a big surprise if the race doesn't end as a huge opportunity for the sprinters to show off their fast legs one final time. With the stage being short and really flat and the sprint taking place on a wide road with plenty of space, the pure sprinters with the highest top speed usually come to the fore. In 2013 Mark Cavendish took the spoils and he is preceded on the winners list by great sprinters like Arnaud Demare, Andrea Guardini, Francesco Chicchi, and Cavendish himself. Of course Tom Boonen has also won this stage, having crossed the line in first in both 2007 and 2008, and the stage offers a fitting end that perfectly reflects a week of fast, high-speed racing in the desert.

 

 

The weather

As said, the weather forecast is even more important than the roadbook when it comes to preparing for the Tour of Qatar and so the teams will all have taken a careful look to find out what to expect. The riders who excel in windy conditions won't be too disappointed to learn that there should be plenty of wind to produce some selection in the coming days.

 

For some reason, the most windy days in the Tour of Qatar always tend to come at the start of the race and this trend continues for the 2014 season. The riders could get the race off to a very unusual start as they could even be challenged by some rain when the race kicks off on Sunday. However, it will disappear very quickly and most of the stage will be held in cloudy conditions, with temperatures reaching a maximum of 19-degrees.

 

The main theme is the wind and there will be a strong breeze blowing from a northwestern direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind for most of the day and even though a cross-tailwind is better suited to creating a selection, we should be in for a real drama on the opening day.

 

On Monday it won't be warmer but it should be a rather sunny day. It will be slightly less windy but it should be strong enough to create a selection. The direction will still be northwestern meaning that there will be lots of crosswinds sections along the way.

 

Conditions will be almost entirely similar for Tuesday's time trial, meaning that the riders will have to battle some windy conditions on the Lusail circuit. It will be the same for Wednesday but the wind tends to come more from a western direction, meaning that the riders will generally have a tailwind. They will, however, have a direct crosswind in the final part of the stage.

 

Thursday will be the final windy day of the race, with the wind again coming from the northwest. It will be a bit warmer, with the temperatures reaching 21 degrees. There will mostly be either a tail- or a headwind on the finishing circuits, meaning that it could be a bit more difficult to exploit the conditions.

 

Finally, the riders will enjoy perfect conditions for the final stage on Friday: bright sunshine, 23-degree temperatures and only a moderate wind from a northwestern direction. As there is also limited opportunity to split things up in the final circuit race, we should see a big bunch sprint bring the race to an end.

 

The favourites

In the past editions, the Tour of Qatar has been made up of five potentially windy road stages and a team time trial. With that layout, the winner of the race was usually a rider that was strong enough to be in the front echelon each day, fast enough to score bonus seconds in the sprints, and had a strong team that could limit the losses - or gain time - in the team time trial.

 

With the latter stage having been replaced by an individual time trial, the dynamics of the race has changed, making it open to a whole new group of riders and thus more exciting. Now the classics specialists and sprinters will have to limit their losses in the time trial and hope that they can pick up the needed bonus seconds in the sprints while the time trial specialists - who are not necessarily very good in the battle for position - need to stay near the front every day to not get caught out.

 

This interesting dynamic makes for an interesting clash between two different kinds of riders. No one can win the race without the ability to time trial. If you don't master the art of racing in the Qatari desert, however, all your hard-earned time gains from the TT are turned into a deficit in a matter of seconds. This makes the race much more open and unpredictable than it has been in the past.

 

The addition of a rather long time trial is clearly a disadvantage for the king of Qatar, Tom Boonen. While the classics star is a solid time trialist, he will undoubtedly lose time to the biggest specialists in the race against the clock. He needs to take back that time in the road stages and his only chance is to race hard in the wind and use his fast sprint, the two attributes that has given him four overall wins.

 

Despite the route changes and the new disadvantages, Boonen remains our favourite to take a 5th win in the race. The Belgian is certainly no time trial specialist but it would be a mistake to expect him to lose a significant amount of time in the 10.9km test. In the Tour de San Luis, he finished 7th in the flat 19.2km time trial and back in 2009 he was even 11th in a long 30km test in the Vuelta a Espana. He is a very good prologue rider who has once finished 2nd in the Vuelta opener and the nature of the time trial means that it is more like a prologue than a TT for the specialists.

 

Boonen would certainly have preferred a significantly shorter time trial but he likes the technical nature. The many corners favour his abilities as a sprinter as they require constant accelerations and great technical skills. There is no doubt that Boonen will lose time in the time trial but he should make it into the top 10 and suffer a limited time loss to the specialists.

 

Boonen may have missed most of last season but he is a very classy bike rider who always starts his seasons very strongly. During the winter, he has been extremely motivated to do the required training and the result was visible in San Luis where he both did a good time trial, mixed it up in the sprints, and climbed solidly.

 

There is no doubt that Boonen will never be missing from the first echelon and his Omega Pharma-Quick Step will often be the one to try to split things up. Then Boonen needs to take back the time in the sprints and even though he is no longer the fastest, he is hard to beat when the sprint comes at the end of a hard race. In the pure bunch sprints, there are certainly much faster riders but most of the biggest names are all absent, making it easier for him to score time in the easy stages as well. As he is always extremely motivated to win in Qatar, Boonen should be strong enough to regain any time lost in the TT and he is our favourite to win.

 

Fabian Cancellara is a Qatar veteran but he has never put too much emphasis on the results, using the race as pure training. As he has been plagued by illness and a training crash and is somewhat short of his best condition, he has been keen to downplay any expectations and he will again enter the race without being too worried about the results.

 

However, the course changes mean that Cancellara could actually win the race without really targeting it. He is doubtlessly the strongest time trialist in the race and the short, technical course suits him perfectly. He may not be too focused on the result but in the TT he will give it his all. By finishing 5th in the Dubai time trial, he proved that even with his current level of form, he is one of the very best and he will be the favourite to take the win on the Lusail circuit.

 

If he really wanted to win the race, he could certainly do so but it will all be a matter of staying concentrated and focused and take the necessary risks in the road stages. At his best, he is impossible to drop in the crosswinds but in the past editions of the Tour of Qatar, his approach to the race has often seen him missing out several times. It is no wonder that his best overall result came in 2012 when he finished 7th. To take the win, he will need to take some risks and use an amount of energy that he is unwilling to and this could see him lose the overall win. However, he will never get a better chance to win the Tour of Qatar and could end up taking the spoils by virtue of a solid time trial.

 

The rider that could realistically beat Cancellara in the time trial is Svein Tuft. The Canadian is one of the most powerful riders in the world and an excellent time trialist. He excels in short time trials as he has proved by winning both the prologue and the time trial in the Eneco Tour in addition to numerous other wins in the individual discipline. Last year he was the driving force behind Orica-GreenEDGE's win in the Tour de France team time trial.

 

Tuft would clearly have preferred a less technical course for the time trial but he should still be one of the strongest riders. His main challenge will be to handle the many road stages as he has never been one of the best riders to handle windy conditions. He has plenty of experience in the classics but he only acts as a workhorse and has never been at the pointy end of the races. Furthermore, he has no sprint at all and will need to gain all his time in the time trial.

 

He hasn't done any races yet and so his form is uncertain. However, he won the time trial in the Tour de San Luis at the beginning of last year and must have been motivated by the Qatar route. If his Orica-GreenEDGE team can keep him near the front in the road stages, he could take his first big stage race win.

 

André Greipel has won the Tour Down Under several times in the past and now has a great chance to add another stage race to his palmares. Anyone who watched the Tour Down Under, knows that the German is in fabulous condition. Not only did he take two easy sprint wins, he climbed incredibly well and was one of only very few sprinters to survive the Menglers Hill on stage 1.

 

In Qatar, he has most of his lead-out train at his disposal, with Marcel Sieberg and Jurgen Roelandts both being on the start line. As he has the strongest team and is clearly the fastest sprinter, he will be the overwhelming favourite to dominate the bunch sprints. However, he is much more than a pure sprinter and has a vast experience in the classics. As he proved in the Tour Down Under, both he and his Lotto Belisol team are some of the strongest in the kind of racing that Qatar has to offer and he should make the front echelon each day.

 

His main disadvantage is of course the time trial but it would be a mistake to write him off as a bad time trialist. In the past, he has been in the top 20 in the Three Days of De Panne time trial whose length and technical nature is not too different from the one that he will face in Qatar. He has done some solid prologues as well and will be greatly benefited by the many corners.

 

Time losses are unavoidable but with 5 potential stage wins - meaning up to 50 bonus seconds - and intermediate sprints on offer, he could go on to turn everything around in the final days of the race.

 

Daniele Bennati has had some difficult seasons but claims to be feeling much better than he did one year ago. He has made his intentions clear: he wants to find back to his winning ways as soon as possible. He will get his chance in Qatar where he will have a leadership role at Tinkoff-Saxo.

 

Bennati may be mostly known as a sprinter but he is actually an excellent time trialist as well - especially on short, technical courses like the one in Qatar. He is a past winner of the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe time trial and in 2012 he was even 2nd behind Cancellara in the Tirreno-Adriatico.

 

At the same time, he is a very solid classics rider who handles the positioning aspect really well - just recall how he split things up on the famous Tour de France stage to Saint-Armand-Montrond. With his fast finish, he also has the chance to pick up a few bonus seconds.

 

Among the sprinters, he should be the best in the time trial but in recent years he has not been fast enough to beat the best in the sprints. If he can find back some his past speed, he has a very good chance of erasing his deficit from the time trial.

 

In addition to Tuft and Cancellara, the third real TT specialist is Lieuwe Westra. Having twice finished 2nd in the Three Days of De Panne, he knows how to handle a race that is very similar to this year's edition of the Tour of Qatar. At his best, he is one of the very best time trialists and he should have no trouble handling the shorter, more technical course. He also has a decent sprint and could pick up bonus seconds in some of the intermediate sprints.

 

The main question is his level of form. His objectives are still far away and he didn't appear to be very strong in the Tour Down Under. At the same time, he is no real warrior in the crosswinds and is unlikely to be in the front echelon each day. If he manages to be though, he is one of the select few who can win the race.

 

Lars Boom has all the characteristics to shine in this race and there is no doubt that he is in splendid condition as he always starts his seasons very strongly. As a classics rider, he will be hard to drop in the crosswinds and he is even fast enough to potentially score a few bonus seconds in the intermediates.

 

His main asset is of course his time trialing abilities. In recent years, his TT results have, however, been on the decline and he is no longer a genuine TT favourite. He may compensate for that by his good condition and the nature of the course will also suit him down to the ground. He is unlikely to win the time trial but he could be the only one of the TT specialists who makes the selection each day and this could give him the overall win.

 

Another time trial specialist is Brett Lancaster who has taken some of his best results in time trials of around 10km. Technically, he is also a solid rider and should handle the many corners well. He is not at the level of Cancellara, Tuft and Westra but will not be far off the mark.

 

He doesn't have much classics experience and like his teammate Tuft, he will find it difficult to stay near the front on each stage. However, he is part of a very solid Orica-GreenEDGE team that will ride as a cohesive unit and try to keep their GC riders near the front. He is a fast rider and even though he will likely have to work for Aidis Kruopis and maybe Leigh Howard in the sprints, he could get his chance to shine if the overall win is within reach.

 

Alexander Kristoff will make his season debut and will be a dark horse. The Norwegian is mostly known as a sprinter but he is also a very capable classics rider who finished in the top 9 in Milan-Sanremo, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix in 2013. In the past he had never shown any signs of time trialing abilities until he suddenly finished 6th in the TT in the Three Days of De Panne. That stage is very similar to the one in Qatar and if he can reproduce that ride, he will be up there. He will be hard to drop in the crosswinds and in a sprint, he is one of the very fastest riders in this race.

 

Finally, Heinrich Haussler deserves a mention. The Australian has performed extremely well in past editions of the Qatari race, taking two stage wins and 2nd overall in 2011. He usually starts his seasons very strongly, putting his good form to use in Qatar, and he is likely to do so again this year. He is very strong in the crosswinds, has a decent sprint and is a solid time trialist on short, technical courses. Last year he was even 3rd in the Tour de Suisse prologue and even though that result was aided by the wind, it still proves his class. As he is neither the fastest rider not the best time trialist, it will be hard for him to win the race but he could easily end up near the front.

 

***** Tom Boonen

**** Fabian Cancellara, Svein Tuft

*** Andre Greipel, Daniele Bennati, Lieuwe Westra

** Lars Boom, Brett Lancaster, Alexander Kristoff, Heinrich Haussler

* Jesse Sergent, Elia Viviani, Niki Terpstra, Patrick Gretsch, Philippe Gilbert