The Dubai Tour is about to come to an end but the block of racing in the Middle East continues with the race that got it off the ground. While the Dubai race was mostly a star parade, the preparation for the cobbled classics kicks off in earnest over the next 6 days when sprinters and one-day specialists battle it out in the crosswinds in the Qatari desert. Let the war begin!

 

The idea was certainly not an obvious one but ASO had the guts to give it their full backing when the wealthy Qatari authorities came up with the novel idea of hosting a major bike race in a part of the world that had no cycling history and no topographical challenges at all. With the locals offering the financial support and ASO providing the cycling knowledge, the partnership has resulted in the creation of one of the marquee events on the early-season calendar.

 

At a first glance, one would wonder why anyone would travel all the way to Qatar to participate in a race that has no climbs at all! In the roadbook, organizers ASO have not even bothered making profiles of the stages, knowing that they contain no information at all. Nonetheless, the race has a very good reputation and for many it is an inalienable part of the perfect classics preparation.

 

Having just watched the new Dubai Tour which was a pretty controlled affair for the sprinters, one would expect it to be the same in Qatar. And stages certainly can unfold in this predictable way and it is unlikely not to happen on some days. What makes the race unique and perfect classics preparation is the strong desert wind that blows on the long, straight roads.

 

On days when there is no wind or the direction is unfavourable, one can expect to see the usual break-chase-catch-sprint scenario that dominates so many races. When the climatic conditions are right, however, the race changes to a war zone where only the strongest survive. At extreme speeds, the riders battle for position whenever they reach a corner that will see them change the direction and echelons are almost guaranteed to wreak havoc on the peloton at some point in the race.

 

It is this kind of racing that turns the race into the place to be for the riders who target the cobbled classics. There is no better place to prepare for the battle for position that precedes the key climbs in the Tour of Flanders or the key pavé sectors in the Paris-Roubaix. Unsurprisingly, the race is also a rather dangerous one and we are almost guaranteed to see a few riders crash out of the race and get their spring campaign ruined.

 

No one can guarantee the spectacle and we are certain to witness a few traditional sprint stages as well. However, history proves that at least one stage is likely to turn into a real battle and it is all about being ready when the war begins.

 

In recent years, the organizers have included a time trial to break the monotony of flat stages in the desert. For several years, a team time trial was on the schedule but this made it possible for select teams to completely dominate the race. Last year the event had an individual time trial for the second time in its short history and this is again the chosen for format for 2015.

 

Nobody should watch the Tour of Qatar to see any kind of spectacular nature or beautiful landscape. The race is held on straight roads surrounded by sand but what the race lacks in visual quality, it certainly has in excitement and drama when the wind is blowing strongly from the right direction.

 

When the Tour of Qatar was held for the first time in 2002, it was a stand-alone event that gradually developed into an important part of the early-season calendar. Since then, ASO have added the Tour of Oman to form a very solid block of racing in the Middle East and with the addition of the Dubai Tour, one can now get in 20 days of racing on the Arabian peninsula. That may be a bit too much for most riders and only a few will do the entire schedule, especially since there is no rest day between the Dubai and Qatar races. With Dubai suiting the puncheurs and sprinters, Qatar appealing to the classics riders, and Oman being the first big rendezvous for the climbers, however, the Middle East offers a rather complete race series for the riders to fine-tune their condition.

 

The dominant figure in Qatar has certainly been Tom Boonen. The Belgian classics specialist has always come out with all guns blazing and has won the race an amazing 4 times, taking 2 individual stage wins in the process. He made his debut when he finished 7th in the 2004 edition of the race and his poorest performance came in 2011 when he could only manage 11th. Apart from those two editions, he has never finished outside the top 4! His track record is certainly no wonder as no one can match Boonen when it comes to battling for position and he is the rider who is in the front echelon every day. If one adds his fast sprint to the equation, you have all the characteristics to shine in the Qatari desert.

 

Boonen has only missed the race once since he made his debut. It happened in 2013 when an infected elbow almost cost him his arm. Instead, it was new teammate Mark Cavendish who got his career with Omega Pharma-Quick Step off to a fantastic start, dominating the sprint stages by winning on the final four days and benefiting from the best team in the business to keep him protected in the wind. Bonus seconds were enough for him to take a convincing overall win too and in general, the Belgian team which is now known as Etixx-QuickStep have been dominant in the race.

 

Last year Boonen was back on Qatari soil but it was another Omega Pharma-Quick Step rider who came away with the win. On a windy opening day, Niki Terpstra made use of the hard conditions to join a late breakaway and he showed supreme condition when he won a real power sprint. From there, he never relinquished the lead, using his strong team to control the race and defending himself well in the time trial. While Terpstra got an amazing season off to a fantastic start, Boonen had to settle for second overall and two stage wins while Jurgen Roelandts completed the podium. This year Terpstra and Boonen will be back and among the favourites in a race that suit them really well but like André Greipel, Roelandts will have a slower start to his season, meaning that he will not be present in the Qatari desert this year.

 

The course

To get an idea of who is going to win a race, the most important aspect is usually to study the route. For the Tour of Qatar, things are different though. The course designers always put together a route that brings the riders to all corners of the small Middle East state, using the same roads numerous times throughout the week. Making sure that the riders will go in all different directions, they hope that the riders will at some point hit a crosswind section, meaning that the real information about the race will be found in the weather forecast and not in the roadbook.

 

In the past, the race consisted of 5 road stages that zigzagged its way through the country, with the capital of Doha being the central location where the riders can stay throughout the duration of the event. In 2007 a novelty was introduced when the race was extended to 6 days by adding an opening 6km team time trial to kick off the event. Since then, the race has had a short TTT each year, with 2011 and 2014 being the only exceptions. In the former year, the race started with an individual time trial and for the 2014 edition, the organizers again decided to replace the collective test with an individual one. In the past, the organizers have made sure not to make the TTs too long so as not to make them too important for the GC but last year's 10.9km race against the clock has a distance that made sure that no one could win the race without possessing solid time trialing skills. Apparently, they liked the concept as the third stage will again be an individual time trial of a similar distance.

 

However, that is the only major change compared to most of the editions and apart from that the 5 road stages follow a very traditional format, visiting many of the places that have featured in the past and using the sparse, well-known roads in the Qatari desert. As it is early in the season, the stages will mostly be rather short, making for some fast and intense racing.

 

Stage 1:

For the fourth year in a row, the time trial will not be held on the opening day, with the race again kicking off with a road stage. The 136km stage is very similar to last year’s opener as it mainly consists of a long run across the peninsula but this year the riders will go the opposite direction of what they have done in the past. The stage is almost identical to last year’s fourth stage but this time the riders will go a little further south to finish at the Beach Resort.

 

The stage starts in Dukhan where last year’s stage finished, and the first part consists of a southerly run along the coast. After 24km of racing, the riders reach the first change of direction when they turn to the left to cross the peninsula. They will contest the first intermediate sprint a little later, after 38km of racing.

 

Just after the feed zone, the riders will hit the road that leads to the capital of Doha but with 58km to go, they will make a turn to head in a southeasterly direction. Having contested the final intermediate sprint with 47km to go, they continue to the city of Mesaaied where they do a few turns before they head to the south for a finish at the Sealine Beach.

 

The finale is pretty straightforward as the riders will follow along straight road. They will go straight through roundabouts just before 5km to go and with 2.5km to go. Inside the final kilometre, the road bends slightly to the left, with the finishing straight being 470m long and the sprint taking place on an 8m wide road.

 

Regardless of the wind direction, we should be in for a real spectacle if the wind is strong enough as the riders will either have a crosswind on the long journey across the peninsula or in the final section along the coast. The race can either split to pieces or end as a predictable bunch sprint and the riders have to be ready for any scenario right from the beginning.

 

While Dukhan Beach has hosted the finish of the opening stage twice in a row, Sealine Beach has never been the site of a stage finish. It is the traditional start site for the final stage but this year it will crown the first holder of the leader’s jersey.

 

 

Stage 2:

The stages in the Tour of Qatar have usually been pretty short and rarely exceeded 160km. This year, however, the organizers have decided to include a longer distance to allow the riders to build condition for the classics. That stage comes on the second day when the riders will travel 194km from Al Wakra to Al Khor Corniche, following a route that is identical to one that was used for a stage in 2015.

 

The stage starts in Al Wakra just south of Doha – a city that has often hosted the start of the first stage – and from there the riders head in a southwesterly and northwesterly direction for the first 42km. Here they will turn to the right and the main part of the stage in now made up of a long northerly run in the middle of the desert. They riders will contest the first intermediate sprint pretty late in the stage at the 115km mark.

 

10km later, the riders will turn to the right and head back towards the coast in an easterly direction. Along the way, they will take a number of turns that will see them travel in several different directions inside the final 70km of the race. The final intermediate sprint comes with 30km to go and a little later, the riders will turn to the south to head to the finish in Al Khor Corniche. Before reaching the line, they will do a small loop in the city.

 

The finale is not very technical. With 3.7km to go, the riders will go left in a roundabout and from there they will follow the coastal road which only has some sweeping turns. With 1.3km to go, there is a sweeping right-hand turn and from there it is straight to the finish on an 8m wide road.

 

Again the stage offers lots of changes of direction and if it’s a windy day, there will be plenty of room to split things. If that’s not the case, however, it will be a very straightforward day for the sprinters.

 

Except for 2007, a stage has finished in Al Khor every year since 2005 when Lars Michaelsen was the first to win on a course that is similar to this year’s. In 2006, Tom Boonen won two stages there. In 2008, Alberto Loddo and Danilo Napolitano won bunch sprints while Roger Hammond was first across the line on a dramatic stage in 2009.

 

In 2010, Francesco Chicchi won a straightforward bunch sprint while Boonen was first across the line on a very windy opening stage in 2011. 2012 and 2013 saw the Corniche host bunch sprint finishes, with Mark Cavendish triumphing on both occasions. Last year Boonen was again triumphant when he won a very windy second stage.

 

 

Stage 3:

The third day of the race will be the one for the third individual time trial in the race's history and while much of the race will be determined in the crosswinds, the 10.9km race against the clock will open up significant time gaps that will play a crucial role in the final GC.

 

Like last year, the stage will be held on the Lusail Circuit just north of Doha where the team time trial took place in 2012, won by Garmin-Sharp. The area hosts a shooting complex, a motorcycle circuit and the Technical Center of the Qatar Cycling Federation which the riders will pass along their way.

 

Compared to the inaugural time trial of the 2011 edition which was a very short and very technical affair held in the city of Doha and which was won by Lars Boom ahead of Fabian Cancellara, last year’s 10.9km stage was much longer and still very technical. This year the riders will use the exact same course but they will tackle the course in the opposite direction.

 

The stage is held on a short 5km road and shortly after the start the riders will turn right in a roundabout. Less than two kilometres from the start, they will turn around in another roundabout and head back to the start-finish area.

 

From here the riders, will head along straight roads that should give the powerful riders the chance to shine as they will only have to turn right in two roundabout for the next several kilometres. With a little less than 4km to go, they will reach the shooting complex where they will turn around in another roundabout. From there, they will head the same way back to the finish, with the final left-hand turn coming just after the flamme rouge.

 

With no less than 8 roundabouts in a 10.9km course, acceleration and technical abilities will be important but as it will be possible to pedal through most of the turns, the course remains one for the powerful riders. With the course set to be dominated by strong winds, it will be important to gauge the effort depending on when the riders will face a headwind.

 

The Lusail circuit has been used for two stages in the history of the race. After Garmin-Sharp won the team time trial in 2012, Michael Hepburn took the biggest win of his career when he beat Lars Boom and Daniele Bennati to win last year’s time trial.

 

 

Stage 4:

The riders will be back to fight potential crosswinds on the fourth stage which is another pretty long one compared to usual Qatar standards. Like stage 2, the riders will mainly travel in a north-south direction but this time they will go the opposite way.

 

The 165km stage starts in Al Takhira just north of Doha and in the first 35km, the riders will travel inlands as they head in a northwesterly direction. Then they will make a left-hand turn to get onto the big north-south road that they will use for most of the race. The first intermediate sprint comes at the 76km mark.

 

With 40km to go, the riders will change direction as they continue in a southeasterly direction back towards the coast and the finish in Mesaieed just south of Doha. Before they get to the finish, they will contest the final intermediate sprint when 29km still remain and before entering the finishing city, they will do a small loop.

 

The finale will be dominated by lots of roundabouts. Around the 4km to go mark, the riders will go through three of those obstacles in quick succession and there is another one at the 3.5km to go mark. With 2.7km to go, they turn right in another roundabout before they go straight though another. With 1.6km, they will go right in the final roundabout which leads them onto the long 9m wide finishing straight in Mesaieed.

 

This stage doesn’t have many changes of direction and so it may turn out to be one of the less nervous days. If the wind comes from a westerly or easterly direction, however, the riders will have a crosswind almost all day and then it could turn out to be a true drama.

 

Mesaieed has hosted five stage finishes in the past. A young Greg Van Avermaet took the first one in 2007 from a breakaway while Tom Boonen won a bunch sprint in 2010. In 2011, Heinrich Haussler took the win on a windy day while Mark Cavendish came out on top in the 2013 bunch sprint. Last year Boonen created a surprise when he beat André Greipel in another bunch kick.

 

 

Stage 5:

As it has become tradition, the fifth stage sees the riders return to the northern part of the country which has been the scene of some rather dramatic racing in the past. The 153km stage is the only one that does not get close to the Doha area and starts in at the Al Zubara Fort on the northwest coast of the peninsula, with a finish in Madinat Al Shamal in the very north of the peninsula. The stage is very similar to the one used 12 months ago but a few modifications have been made, mainly by reducing the number of laps and circuits that will be done in the finale.

 

From the start, the riders will travel in a southeasterly direction before doing a small lap of a circuit in the middle of the desert that will see the riders head in several different directions. After completing the lap, the riders will head back along the same road to Al Zubarah Fort where they will contest the first intermediate sprint after 87km of racing.

 

The peloton will now follow the coastal road to the northern tip of the peninsula until they reach the finish line for the first time with 27km to go. Here they will contest the final intermediate sprint before starting two laps of a 13.5km finishing circuit. That circuit was also used in the finale of last year’s stage and many riders will know everything about it.

 

The finish is rather straightforward as the road will only bend slightly to the left just after the 2km to go mark while the last challenge will be a roundabout that the riders will head straight through just 750m from the finish. From there, it is a straight road with a width of 7m all the way to the finish.

 

With a long trip through the desert, a run along the coast and the final circuit offering plenty of changes in direction, the scene is set for a true drama if the wind is blowing strongly, and there will be plenty of nervousness and need for attention. That was the case when a stage first finished in the city in 2009, with Mark Cavendish making the selection and beating Heinrich Haussler in the final sprint. One year later Tom Boonen won a rather straightforward bunch sprint and the Belgian was again the winner in 2012, albeit after a big drama that saw him arrive at the finish as part of a select group that only consisted of Fabian Cancellara, Tom Veelers, Juan Antonio Flecha, Gert Steegmans, and the Belgian classics star. In 2013 the stage again ended with a classic bunch sprint won by Cavendish and last year André Greipel took his only win of the race from a bunch kick.

 

 

Stage 6:

With one exception, the road stages of the Tour of Qatar can all end in a true crosswind battle. The one exception comes on the final day. Like plenty of other stage races, the race ends with a criterium-like race in the capital, with the riders ending their stay in Qatar by doing 10 laps of a 5.7km circuit on the Doha Corniche.

 

The stage has varied a bit in length from year to year but has mostly had the same format since the inaugural edition in 2002. At 113.5km, the course  the race will be identical to the one used 12 months ago and will again start at the Sealine Beach Resort south of the capital as it has been the case for most of the races. From there the riders will head straight north through the cities of Mesaieed and Al Wakra before reaching the final circuit after 55km and crossing the line for the first time at the 56.5km mark.

 

The riders will then start their first of 10 laps on the 5.7km circuit which is a banana-shaped one held completely on the main coastal road in the city centre. The riders will simply travel 2.6km in one direction before making a very broad U-turn and head back in the opposite direction. The road has a slight bending trend but is completely flat. The final U-turn comes 1.3km from the finish and from there the scene is set for a big bunch sprint on a very wide road with a width of 11m. The intermediate sprints come at the end of the third and sixth laps.

 

The wind could potentially play a role in the first half of the stage but with the circuit being less exposed, there is plenty of time to bring things back together. It will be a big surprise if the race doesn't end as a huge opportunity for the sprinters to show off their fast legs one final time. With the stage being short and really flat and the sprint taking place on a wide road with plenty of space, the pure sprinters with the highest top speed usually come to the fore. In 2013 Mark Cavendish took the spoils and he is preceded on the winners list by great sprinters like Arnaud Demare, Andrea Guardini, Francesco Chicchi, and Cavendish himself. Of course Tom Boonen has also won this stage, having crossed the line in first in both 2007 and 2008. Last year Demare won the stage for the second time in his career and it offers a fitting end that perfectly reflects a week of fast, high-speed racing in the desert.

 

 

The weather

As said, the weather forecast is even more important than the roadbook when it comes to preparing for the Tour of Qatar and so the teams will all have taken a careful look to find out what to expect. The riders who excel in windy conditions won't be too disappointed to learn that there should be plenty of wind to produce some selection in the coming days.

 

For some reason, the windiest days in the Tour of Qatar always tend to come at the start of the race and this trend continues for the 2015 season. Surprisingly, the opening day is forecasted to be a windy cloudy affair with a maximum temperature of 25 degrees. There will be a pretty strong wind from a southeasterly direction which means that the riders can expect a cross-headwind for most of the day, meaning that a bunch sprint is the likely outcome.

 

Monday should be a hot day with 30-degree temperatures and a strong wind from a southerly direction, meaning that the riders will mainly have a tailwind but will face crosswinds in the first and last part of the stage. Tuesday should be the windiest day of the race, with a very strong wind coming from a southeasterly direction, meaning that the riders will have tough conditions for the time trial.

 

The wind will abate a bit for Wednesday but it will still be a strong wind from a southerly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a headwind and we can expect a bunch sprint. Thursday should be the least windy day of the race, with a moderate wind blowing from a southerly direction, meaning that the riders will have a dangerous cross-tailwind for most of the stage. For Friday’s final stage, a strong wind will be blowing from the north, meaning that it will mainly be a headwind until the riders hit the finishing circuit.

 

The favourites

In most of the past editions, the Tour of Qatar has been made up of five potentially windy road stages and a team time trial. With that layout, the winner of the race was usually a rider that was strong enough to be in the front echelon each day, fast enough to score bonus seconds in the sprints, and had a strong team that could limit the losses - or gain time - in the team time trial.

 

With the latter stage having been replaced by an individual time trial, the dynamics of the race has changed, making it open to a whole new group of riders and thus more exciting. Now the classics specialists and sprinters will have to limit their losses in the time trial and hope that they can pick up the needed bonus seconds in the sprints while the time trial specialists - who are not necessarily very good in the battle for position - need to stay near the front every day to not get caught out.

 

This interesting dynamic makes for an interesting clash between two different kinds of riders. No one can win the race without the ability to time trial. If you don't master the art of racing in the Qatari desert, however, all your hard-earned time gains from the TT are turned into a deficit in a matter of seconds. This makes the race much more open and unpredictable than it has been in the past.

 

Some of the sprinters are pretty good at handling windy conditions and many of them can time trial well over shorter distances. However, the time trial has been made pretty long which means that they are likely to lose some time. On the other hand, they will have ample opportunity to pick up bonus seconds and this could bring them back into contention. In general, the race is open for three different kinds of riders: sprinters who hope to pick up bonus seconds, classics riders who hope to split things in the windy and time triallists who hope for an easy race and a good ride on the third day.

 

Last year the race was won by a classics rider with decent time trial skills as Niki Terpstra made use of a strong ride in stage 1 and a strong team to split things in the crosswinds and with a 5th place in the time trial, he defended himself well. His teammate Tom Boonen picked up lots of bonus seconds by winning two stages but he lost too much in the race against the clock and had to settle for second.

 

The formidable line-up of sprinters means that it will be harder for the fast finishers to be in contention for the overall win. The bonus seconds could be spread equally among a big group of bunch kick experts and this means that the select few who will manage to make the first echelon each day will have a harder time defending their advantage over the time triallists. At the same time, some of the time triallists are pretty strong classics riders, meaning that they will be able to stay with the best in the crosswinds.

 

This week seems to be a very windy one but unfortunately, the riders will mainly have a head- or a tailwind on the windiest days. This means that we could be in for a pretty controlled edition where most of the stages will come down to bunch sprints and this will make the time trial and bonus seconds in the bunch sprints even more important.

 

This means that our favourite to win the race is one of the TT specialists. Lars Boom may not be the best time triallist in this field – in fact there are several riders who are usually stronger than him in the race against the clock – and the Dutchman is clearly no longer the time triallist he was in the beginning of his career. For some reason, however, he has always been doing very good TTs in the first few months of the year, probably because he is usually in excellent condition right from the start. It is no coincidence that he has finished in the top 2 whenever the Tour of Qatar has had a time trial and that he is a former winner of the Tour Mediteraneen TT and Paris-Nice prologue.

 

Furthermore, Boom is a fantastic classics rider who will be very hard to drop in the crosswinds and this makes him a genuine contender for this race. Often many riders are not very motivated for this race but Boom is rarely using his races for training. He will only be inspired by having joined Astana and should be keen to hit the ground running in his new colours.

 

Boom showed very good condition in the Tour Down Under where he made the selection the first time up Willunga Hill before splitting things in the crosswinds with his Astana teammates. Since then he has been riding in Dubai where he has been climbing really well too despite working for his teammates and he is reported to be 5kg lighter than he was at this time of the year 12 months ago.

 

Boom’s main weakness is his team. Astana is not known for its strength in the cobbled classics and there is a big risk that the Dutchman could find himself isolated in a select front group. Being alone against 5-6 Etixx-QuickStep riders and a number of Sky riders could prove to be a big challenge as it will be impossible to respond to all attacks himself. If Boom wins the time trial, his team will have to step up. Otherwise he could lose everything in the crosswinds but the in-form Dutchman is riding so well that he is our favourite to win the race overall.

 

On paper, this race is tailor-made for Fabian Cancellara who is one of the best riders for riding in windy conditions and is one of the best time triallists in the world, especially on shorter distances. However, the Swiss has rarely been riding very well in Qatar where he has never been focused on the GC. Instead, he has used the race as quality training and it didn’t change in 2014 when the introduction of a time trial made him one of the big favourites, with the Swiss deliberately losing time in some of the sprint finishes.

 

This year his approach may have changed and this makes him a potential winner. He has admitted that he made a mistake in 2014 by focusing too much on the big races and has claimed that he is now focused on the first part of the season. He decided to do all the races in Mallorca where he even tested himself in a bunch sprint which indicates a change of approach from the past when he always preferred to stay out of trouble.

 

Of course the Tour of Qatar is mainly preparation for Cancellara but this time he may actually try to win it. In that case he will be one of the biggest favourites. He will be very hard to drop in the crosswinds and if he is in reasonable condition, he is one of the two big favourites for the time trial. Furthermore, he will be assisted by the conditions which seem to be less selective and this will make the time trial more important. Last year he was only fourth in the TT but as he seems to be riding better in 2015, he may take both the TT win and the overall victory.

 

It is hard not to mention Tom Boonen as one of the big favourites in a race that he has won so many times. The Belgian may not have been at his best in 2013 and 2014 when he suffered from several health issues and he still hasn’t shown that he can return to his former level. On the other hand, he rode really strongly in Qatar last year, proving that he is still one of the very best riders for this kind of racing.

 

At this time of year, form and motivation are key ingredients for success and everybody knows that Boonen always comes out with all guns blazing. His track record in Qatar is formidable which is due to his excellent ability to build a great condition through his winter training. This year he hasn’t raced in San Luis and so no one really knows whether he is at 100% but it would be a big surprise if he is not at a very high level.

 

Boonen is supported by the best team in the race and no one can drop in the crosswinds. Furthermore, he is very hard to beat in a sprint at the end of a hard race and if the race turns out to be a windy and selective affair, he should be able to pick up lots of bonus seconds.

 

However, he really needs to do so. He may be a solid time triallist but he will definitely lose time to the biggest specialists in stage 3. Last year he conceded 21 seconds to Boom and 15 seconds to Fabian Cancellara and he is likely to lose a similar amount of time this year. He needs to take that back in the sprints along the way and this could prove to be a challenging affair. He is not supported by a very strong lead-out train and against a formidable field of sprinters, he won’t have much of a chance in the pure bunch sprints. He needs a windy, selective race to win some stages and the forecast doesn’t exactly favour him. Nonetheless, Boonen is always a threat in Qatar and he could get his season off to the perfect start with another Qatar victory.

 

The dark horse in this race is Marcel Kittel. Being the fastest sprinter in the world, the German could potentially pick up an enormous amount of bonus seconds. Furthermore, he is a really good time triallist on short, flat courses like the one in Lusail. Last year he finished 6th in a very similar TT in the Dubai Tour and he has excelled in the Driedaagse de Panne TT as well. If he can come up with a similar performance in stage 3, he should make it into the top 10 and if he only loses a dozen seconds, he will be a contender.

 

Being supported by the best lead-out, Kittel could potentially dominate the bunch sprints but his main challenge will be to make the selection in the crosswinds. He doesn’t have an awful lot of experience in the classics and he is not known as the best rider for this kind of racing. On paper, however, he should be able to do well here and he has made it clear that he would like to focus a bit more on the classics in the future.

 

To make the selection, he needs to be in very good condition. In the Tour Down Under, he rode stronger than he did one year ago and back then he arrived in the Middle East in splendid form, climbing better than ever before. This year there is a good chance that he will be at a similar level and then he may make the selection. For Kittel to win, the race can’t be too windy and he is favoured by the weather forecasts. The German definitely has a shot at a rare stage race victory.

 

Peter Sagan will make his highly anticipated debut in Tinkoff-Saxo colours and on paper the race suits him really well. In the past, however, he has rarely been too strong in his first race of the year and when he last did Qatar in 2012 he was far off the mark.

 

This year there is a big chance that Sagan will again have a low-key start to the season. On the other hand, the Slovakian is very talented and he is rarely riding too badly. If he decides to give it a go, he is a potential winner of this race. He is unlikely to win any of the bunch sprints but he is a master in using his technical skills to sneak into the top 3 and pick up bonus seconds. He is very strong in the crosswinds and would be one of the favourites to win a sprint from a small group. He is not known for his time trialling skills but he is actually an excellent prologue rider. This TT is a bit too long to suit him perfectly but with the many turns, he will have a good chance to limit his losses so much that he can make up for it by taking bonus seconds in the road stages.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen had a terribly 2014 season and now he has decided to start a new chapter with the MTN-Qhubeka team. There is no doubt that the Norwegian is eager to get his campaign off to a great start and he is usually very strong in the early part of the season. In fact, he has often been pretty strong in the races in the Middle East and on paper the Tour of Qatar suits him pretty well. He will probably be riding for Theo Bos in the bunch sprints but in the hard, selective stages he should be able to make it into the first echelon and then his fast sprint will make him a danger man. Among the fast guys, he is probably the best time triallist and the combination of bonus seconds and TT skills makes him a winner candidate. He still needs to show that he can return to his former level but at the end of 2014 he showed signs of improvement. With a change of teams and new inspiration, the Norwegian may return to his winning ways in Qatar.

 

Boom may be the leader of the Astana team but the team has another card to play. On paper, Lieuwe Westra is the better time triallist of the pair and even though he didn’t live up to his usual lofty standards in 2014, he has decided to focus in his specialty again in 2015. Westra is building condition for Paris-Nice which is his first big goal and he seemed to be riding solidly in the Tour Down Under where he nearly won stage 1.

 

Westra is no master in the classics and he has never been the strongest rider for the crosswinds. On the other hand, he is a perennial runner-up in the 3 Days of De Panne and this proves that he is not too bad either. Riding alongside Boom, he has the perfect ally to survive the selective stages and if he can stay in contention, he can win the race by producing an excellent ride in the time trial.

 

On paper, Bradley Wiggins is the best time triallist in the race and as he is targeting the cobbled classics, one would suggest that he should be the big favourite for this race. While some riders are always competitive, however, things are completely different for the Brit who is always very focused on certain objectives and uses most of his races for pure training. At this time of the year, he is unlikely to take any unnecessary risks in the fight for position and we expect him to take it pretty easy in the road races. He will be the favourite to win the time trial so if he comes through the road stages unscathed, he is definitely one of the big favourites but we don’t expect him to really get involved in the fight.

 

Last year a brutally strong Niki Terpstra won the race but it will be hard for him to repeat the feat. The Dutchman is a solid time triallist but he is not the best in this field. Furthermore, he is not a very fast sprinter and so he can’t expect to get any bonus seconds. If he wants to win this race, he probably has to get rid of the better time triallists in the crosswinds and it will be hard for him to drop the likes of Boom. On the other hand he is part of the strongest team that is likely to have strength in numbers in the first echelon and that tactical advantage could allow Terpstra to launch one of his trademark attacks and finally win the race by a solid time trial.

 

Philippe Gilbert has often done the Tour of Qatar and even though he is usually up there with the best, he has never really been in contention for the win. At this point of the year he is rarely at his best and the race doesn’t suit him perfectly. He is very strong in the crosswinds but there are faster riders than him and even though he is a decent time triallist, a spot in the top 10 is the maximum achievable in stage 3. Like Terpstra, he needs to get rid of the better time triallists in the crosswinds and that will be a tough challenge. If he makes the right move, however, he has the TT skills to finish it off.

 

Finally, Arnaud Demare hopes that 2015 will finally be the year when he will get his big breakthrough in the classics. To do this, he needs to prove that he has improved his skills in the fight for position. If the race will be very selective, it will be hard for him to make the first echelon every day but in less windy conditions he has a chance. He is one of the fastest riders in the race who may pick up lots of bonus seconds in the five road stages and last year he was 12th in a very similar time trial at Tirreno-Adriatico. We don’t expect him to be firing at all cylinders yet but if things fall into place for the Frenchman, he could create a surprise.

 

***** Lars Boom

**** Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen

*** Marcel Kittel, Peter Sagan, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Lieuwe Westra, Bradley Wiggins, 

** Niki Terpstra, Philippe Gilbert, Arnaud Demare, Matthias Brändle

*  Alexander Kristoff, Svein Tuft, Jasper Stuyven, Filippo Pozzato, Maciej Bodnar, Cyril Lemoine, Jens Keukeleire, Andrey Amador, Andriy Grivko, Greg Van Avermaet, Nacer Bouhanni, Guillaume Van Keirsbulck, Johan Le Bon, Heinrich Haussler, Nelson Oliveira, Ian Stannard, Markel Irizar, Gert Steegmans, Brett Lancaster