The wind failed to play a role in the Dubai Tour but there is a guarantee for plenty of drama and exciting crosswind action in the Tour of Qatar which continues the block of Middle East races. And the riders have to be ready right from the beginning as the first day of the race shapes up to be a very windy one, meaning that only the strongest rider will prevail. Starting at 12.45 CET, you can follow the drama on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The course

For the third year in a row, the time trial will not be held on the opening day, with the race again kicking off with a road stage. The 135.5km stage starts on the east coast on the outskirts of the capital of Doha, at the Dukhan Beach in Al Wakra. From there, the riders head south to the city of Mesaieed where the first intermediate sprint will be contested at the 20km from mark.

 

The peloton now turns right and starts a long journey that will see them cross the peninsula before hitting the west coast and the site of the second intermediate sprint with 28km to go. There they will turn right and continue in a northern direction for most of the remaining part of the stage.

 

Just before the 4km to go banner, the riders will turn left in two roundabouts to travel in a western direction for the final part of the stage. The final part mostly consists of a long, straight road that bends slightly to the right and will see the riders go straight through 3 roundabouts. The final one comes 1.3km from the finish and leads to another roundabout just 550m from the line. The riders will turn right to head along the coast up the flat finishing straight that has a width of 7m, to end the stage in Dukhan Beach.

 

Last year Dukhan Beach hosted its first stage finish on an opening stage that was not too different from the one planned for this year's edition. On that occasion, the peloton split in the crosswinds, with Brent Bookwalter, Martin Elmiger and Gregory Rast escaping in the finale to hold off the peloton. Bookwalter won the sprint as the trio was caught by the first bigger group just on the line and set himself up for his overall second place in the race.

 

 

The weather

There are very few races in which the weather plays such an important role as it does in the Tour of Qatar and it is a well-known fact that it is just as important to check the weather forecast as it is to consult the roadbook. The wind can make a massive difference in Qatar whose flat stages are either straightforward and very controlled bunch sprints or a huge drama in the crosswinds.

 

And the riders will kick off the show right from the beginning with what is likely to be the most windy stage of the entire race. Rain will have fallen overnight and the conditions in Qatar will be unusually unpleasant for the opening day of the race.

 

It will be a mostly cloudy day but the sun will gradually make its presence felt as the race goes on. However, it won't be a very hot day as the temperatures will reach their maximum at around 19 degrees at around noon local time.

 

The main factor is, however, the wind which will be rather strong and come from a northwestern direction. This means that the riders will have a direct crosswind when they leave Al Wakra and then turn into a direct headwind. Having made a turn as they continue their journey across the peninsula, however, the riders will face a long section with a cross-headwind and they will have the same kind of conditions during their final run up along the coast. In the final 4km, there will still be a cross-headwind which will turn into a direct headwind when the riders make the final turn 550m from the line.

 

The favourites

For some reason, the first day of the Tour of Qatar is often the most dramatic and the weather forecast indicates that this will again be the case for the 2014 edition. With the wind set to decrease a bit in the coming days, the classics specialists will be extremely eager to make use of the windy conditions right from the beginning and we should be in for a dramatic opening stage.

 

Right from the beginning, we could see things split up as there will be a direct crosswind in the opening section and it will be important to be ready from the gun. The headwind stretch may dampen the attacking spirit a bit but the long section with a cross-headwind should provide some spectacle. A cross-headwind may be better suited to splitting things up but with this kind of hard wind on exposed roads, we honestly can't imagine that we will see a big bunch sprint at the end.

 

Instead, we should be in for the typical Qatar stage that sees a split occur at some point of the race and this is where the decision is made. From there, the race will be a fierce pursuit between the groups that are spread all over the roads, with the rough roads often seeing riders to puncture out of the lead group. With all riders having to take turns on the front to stay out of trouble, everybody will arrive tired at the finish and as there will be limited domestique resources available, we are usually in for an aggressive and exciting final few kilometres.

 

The race may not come down to a true bunch sprint but the favourite to take the win will still be one of the fastest sprinters in the world. André Greipel has started his season extremely well with two stage wins in the Tour Down Under and he will be ready to continue his run of success in Qatar.

 

What made his performance in Australia impressive was not necessarily his extremely convincing sprint wins. Instead, it was his exceptional climbing that saw him survive Menglers Hill on the opening day and be right at the front until the very end on the Willunga queen stage. There is no doubt that Greipel has again started his season in fantastic condition.

 

At the same time, he is a very good classics rider and he is very strong in the crosswind battle. In the Tour Down Under, his Lotto Belisol team was often the one to take the initiative in the wind and when other teams tried similar moves, Greipel was right near the front.

 

It is very hard to imagine that anyone will be able to drop Greipel. As he will be supported by Jurgen Roelandts and Marcel Sieberg who also master the discipline of racing in the wind, he will also have the firepower to keep things under control during what could be an aggressive run-in to the finish. If his team can set up a sprint finish, there is no doubt that Greipel is the fastest rider in the race and he will be very hard to beat. Even if the wind fails to provide the expected spectacle and we will see a more traditional bunch sprint, Greipel will be the man to beat as he is both the fastest rider and has two of the most important members of the world's best lead-out train, Sieberg and Roelandts, at his disposal.

 

Only a select few riders have the top speed that allows them to realistically hope that they can beat Greipel. One of them is Elia Viviani who showed some good condition when he debuted in the Tour Down Under. He was one of the few sprinters to survive Orica-GreenEDGE's crosswind attack on stage 4 but was badly positioned in the sprint. Nonetheless, he produced a very impressive speed at the end to almost catch Greipel, finally settling for a 3rd place on the stage.

 

Viviani is preparing for the Track World Championships and his condition will only have improved since his last race. He doesn't have an awful lot of experience in the classics and in riding in these kind of windy conditions and his team doesn't have either. With Dwars door Vlaanderen winner Oscar Gatto at his side, however, he will have at least one capable domestique and his level of form will take him far.

 

At the same time, he could benefit from a hard race that sees a very small group arrive at the finish. In the big bunch sprints, he often loses the opportunity to show his very fast sprint as he is poorly positioned and boxed in at the end. If he arrives at the finish with a small group, the risk of being badly positioned is much smaller and this improves his chances significantly. The main question is whether he makes the selection. If he is there at the finish, he will be a danger man.

 

As opposed to this, no one doubts that Tom Boonen - barring accident - will be in the front echelon. The king of Qatar is eager to get back to racing after a disastrous 2013 season and he will be even more eager to ride in his preferred terrain in the Qatari desert. In the Tour de San Luis, he showed very good condition by climbing rather well, finishing 7th in the time trial and doing some decent sprints.

 

Boonen doesn't have the top speed of riders like Greipel and Viviani but he has a vast experience. At the end of a hard race, he is still a very good sprinter as he proved in his magic 2012 season when he beat faster riders in the bunch sprints to win E3, Gent-Wevelgem and Paris-Bruxelles. With the stage set to be very windy, the race should indeed be a tough one and Boonen will have the added advantage of a strong team that can assist him in the finale. If the race becomes one of attrition, Boonen could take his 21st stage win in Qatar.

 

As said, few riders have the speed to beat Greipel in a sprint but one of those is Arnaud Demare who will make his 2014 debut in Qatar. This makes his level of condition somewhat uncertain. However, the Frenchman has an ambition to become a contender in the cobbled classics and this means that his form must be at a rather advanced level.

 

Demare performed well in the classics in 2013 but he wasn't able to be at the pointy end of the races. He still lacks a fair bit of experience in getting into position for the hard battles and even though he can count on solid classics riders like Yoann Offredo and Matthieu Ladagnous, FDJ.fr is not one of the classics powerhouses. It is highly uncertain that he will be present at the finish but if he shows the kind of improvement that he needs to become a classics contender, he will be a danger man. He has a fierce acceleration and a solid top speed and could be the rider who denies Greipel in the sprint.

 

Another sprinter who has lofty classics ambitions, is Alexander Kristoff and unlike Demare he has already proved that he has what it takes to be a contender in the hardest races. Last year he was the man of the minor placings as he won the bunch sprint of the first bigger group in Milan-Sanremo, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix to finish in the top 10 in all three monuments.

 

Like Demare, Kristoff makes his 2014 debut in Qatar and so his form is uncertain but we would be surprised not to see him at the pointy end of the races. He may not be as strong as Boonen and Greipel in the crosswind but he knows to find his way through the peloton in the tough conditions. Like Boonen, he usually doesn't have the speed to beat Greipel in a sprint but he excels in sprints that comes at the end of hard races. This is evidenced by his results in those three classics and if the race turns out to be a true war, he will be up there.

 

The opposite can be said for Theo Bos. The Dutchman is a pure sprinter who has never shown any kind of ability to handle the crosswinds. On the other hand, he doesn't have much experience in racing in Qatar and the lack of climbs may be just what is needed for him to come to the fore. He is part of a very strong team that includes experienced classics riders like Lars Boom and Maarten Tjallingii and that kind of support will be extremely valuable.

 

Alongside Greipel, Bos is the fastest sprinter in the race and he will be a big winner candidate if he is still present at the end. With windy conditions expected, we doubt that he will be there but if the race is less selective, look out for the fast Dutchman.

 

Finally, we will select our joker. Aidis Kruopis is another pure sprinter who is usually one of the first to get dropped on the climbs. Having raced in Belgium in the first part of his career, however, he knows how to handle the wind. When he made his race debut with Orica-GreenEDGE in 2012, he excelled in the crosswinds and he will be eager to find back that strength after a disappointing 2013 season. He is no real specialist and the odds are that he won't make the selection but he is part of a strong team of rouleurs who will be able to  position him well. If he is still in contention at the finish, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the fast Lithuanian.

 

CyclingQuotes's stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Elia Viviani, Tom Boonen

Outsiders: Arnaud Demare, Alexander Kristoff, Theo Bos

Joker: Aidis Kruopis

 

You can read our preview of the entire race here.