A short crosswinds section in the finale was enough to split the peloton on the opening day of the Tour of Qatar, with key contenders Bradley Wiggins and Marcel Kittel both losing time. The strongest teams have fired a warning shot and the peloton can expect plenty of action in tomorrow’s second stage where more crosswinds and a long tailwind section will set the scene for a brutally fast race.

 

The course

The stages in the Tour of Qatar have usually been pretty short and rarely exceeded 160km. This year, however, the organizers have decided to include a longer distance to allow the riders to build condition for the classics. That stage comes on the second day when the riders will travel 194km from Al Wakra to Al Khor Corniche, following a route that is identical to one that was used for a stage in 2015.

 

The stage starts in Al Wakra just south of Doha – a city that has often hosted the start of the first stage – and from there the riders head in a southwesterly and northwesterly direction for the first 42km. Here they will turn to the right and the main part of the stage in now made up of a long northerly run in the middle of the desert. They riders will contest the first intermediate sprint pretty late in the stage at the 115km mark.

 

10km later, the riders will turn to the right and head back towards the coast in an easterly direction. Along the way, they will take a number of turns that will see them travel in several different directions inside the final 70km of the race. The final intermediate sprint comes with 30km to go and a little later, the riders will turn to the south to head to the finish in Al Khor Corniche. Before reaching the line, they will do a small loop in the city.

 

The finale is not very technical. With 3.7km to go, the riders will go left in a roundabout and from there they will follow the coastal road which only has some sweeping turns. With 1.3km to go, there is a sweeping right-hand turn and from there it is straight to the finish on an 8m wide road.

 

Except for 2007, a stage has finished in Al Khor every year since 2005 when Lars Michaelsen was the first to win on a course that is similar to this year’s. In 2006, Tom Boonen won two stages there. In 2008, Alberto Loddo and Danilo Napolitano won bunch sprints while Roger Hammond was first across the line on a dramatic stage in 2009.

 

In 2010, Francesco Chicchi won a straightforward bunch sprint while Boonen was first across the line on a very windy opening stage in 2011. 2012 and 2013 saw the Corniche host bunch sprint finishes, with Mark Cavendish triumphing on both occasions. Last year Boonen was again triumphant when he won a very windy second stage.

 

 

The weather

The wind was very strong in today’s stage but as it was generally a headwind, it was only possible to split the peloton on two occasions. The riders that excel in the echelons will be pleased to know that tomorrow will be even windier.

 

The clouds from today’s stage will have disappeared for tomorrow which will be a day of beautiful sunshine. Furthermore, it will be very hot as the temperature is expected to reach a maximum of 30 degrees along the coast, meaning that the heat in the desert will be brutal.

 

There will be a strong wind from a southerly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind in the first section before they turn into a tailwind for the middle part. With 70km to go, they again turn into a crosswind which they will face until they hit a tailwind with 35km to go. The final 20km will be with a strong headwind before the riders turn into a crosswind with 3.5km to go. The final sweeping turn leads the riders into a headwind for the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

As we had predicted in yesterday’s preview, there was only one really dangerous point in the opening stage when the riders hit a crosswind along the coast in the finale. In the end, it proved that the short section was enough to create plenty of damage and already on the opening day, Bradley Wiggins and Marcel Kittel saw their dreams of overall victory get crushed.

 

After a slow start, the stage turned out to be a dramatic one and things will only get even more dramatic tomorrow. Looking at the weather forecasts, it may be hard to create a selection on most of the days but tomorrow presents a big opportunity for the likes of Etixx-QuickStep who want to blow this race apart.

 

First of all there will be a crosswind in both the first and the second part and this will offer the aggressive teams ample opportunity to split the field. Furthermore, they are separated by a long tailwind section which will make it easier for a small group to maintain their advantage. The only real headwind section comes in the finale but at that time, the race may already have been split into pieces.

 

With the riders facing a crosswind from the gun, we would recommend the riders to a bit of a warm-up. The start is guaranteed to be brutal and we should see the action kick off right from the gun. The strong teams like Etixx-QuickStep and BMC will want to make use of the conditions and as we saw today, the peloton is likely to split as they head out of Al Wakra.

 

With the long tailwind section, it will be harder for a bigger group to catch a small first echelon and so we are unlikely to get any early break all. If the peloton splits right from the gun, we could be in for a long day of chasing between different groups. With a tailwind, this will make the racing extremely fast and a complete contract to today’s slow affair.

 

Of course there is a chance that a regrouping will take place but if that is the case, things are likely to split again when the riders again hit a crosswind with 70km to go. If a small group is already clear at this point, it will be more of a continuation of the chase but more riders may drop off at this point.

 

With those conditions, we can’ really imagine that the race won’t blow to pieces and with a hard day of racing behind them, we expect a pretty small front group to turn into the headwind with 20km to go. The headwind will dampen the attacking spirit but inside the final 5km, it will be time for the strong teams to use their strength in numbers. As everybody will have been riding on the front all day, all riders will be fatigued and this means that we may see a few riders escape in the finale. Otherwise, the race is likely to come down to a sprint from a small group.

 

To find the favourites, the task is to select the riders that are strong enough to make the selection. With a headwind in the finale, the most likely outcome is a sprint from a small group and this means that the fast guys are likely to come to the fore.

 

Today Tom Boonen proved that he is still one of the best riders in the world for this kind of racing when his Etixx-QuickStep team split the peloton at the midpoint and had 5 riders in the front group that sprinted for the win. Despite having gone down in a small crash, Boonen proved his strength by sprinting to second and secure a few bonus seconds.

 

Etixx-QuickStep is the strongest team for this kind of racing and the team is likely to be the driving force in tomorrow’s first echelon. Unless disaster strikes, Boonen will definitely be there and he is likely to be surrounded by lots of teammates that can play the tactical game in the finale. If it comes down to a sprint, Boonen will be their protected rider and he really excels in those conditions.

 

We expect the race to be very fast and it to become a very hard day in the saddle for all riders. Boonen has often proved that he is very hard to beat in a sprint when it comes at the end of a tough race. Tomorrow is likely to suit him down to the ground and as he can rely on the strongest team, he may even be able to get a solid lead-out. Boonen has won numerous stages in this race in the past and tomorrow he is our favourite to take another one.

 

His biggest rival could be Peter Sagan. Like Boonen, the Slovakian went down in a crash and even though he was a bit more injured than the Belgian, he still managed to take fourth in the sprint. This indicates that he is riding very strongly at the moment and so he will be very hard to drop in the crosswinds.

 

All day Tinkoff-Saxo rode as a very solid block in the front end of the peloton and the team seems to be one of the strongest. This should leave Sagan with support in the finale and make it easier for him to control the late attacks. Usually, he is not the fastest rider in the bunch but from a small group at the end of a hard day, he is hard to beat.

 

The master in sprints at the end of hard races is Alexander Kristoff. Going into the race, we didn’t have much confidence in the Katusha rider who is rarely at his best in this race. Today, however, he seemed to be riding really well and his Katusha team even worked hard to set him up for the sprint. This indicates that he is better than usual at this time of the year and if that’s the case, he will be very dangerous.

 

An in-form Kristoff is very hard to drop in the crosswinds and as we expect this race to come down to a sprint from a small group at the end of a hard day, he will be an obvious favourite. He may not have the strongest team at his side for this kind of racing but if he can come off the wheel of a stronger team, he could take the win.

 

Like Kristoff, Arnaud Demare is making his season debut in this race and with a third place he seems to be riding really strongly. His FDJ rode attentively near the front and Demare made all the key splits. This indicates that he is getting better for this kind of racing which is important for the classics. On paper, he is one of the very fastest rider in the bunch and he will be an obvious favourite in case of a sprint from a small group.

 

Today Giant-Alpecin missed the split in the crosswinds which means that Marcel Kittel is no longer in contention for the win. On paper, however, Giant-Alpecin have a really strong team for this kind of racing and they will be eager to make amends. On paper, Kittel can do well in the wind but this race is likely to be a bit too hard for him. It will be difficult for him to make all the splits and if he is still there, he won’t have his usual speed. Nonetheless, he is of course a potential winner if he can survive the selection.

 

Today Jose Joaquin Rojas proved that he is in excellent condition, confirming his good results from the Challenge Mallorca. He is not really used to this kind of racing but he made the split and did a good sprint. Movistar don’t have a lot of experience in this kind of racing and so he will have to rely heavily on Alejandro Valverde tomorrow and it will be hard for him to make all the splits. With his good form, however, he may be able to do so and a sprint at the end of a hard day suits him well.

 

Nacer Bouhanni has been sprinting terribly all year and today he missed out again despite having made the selection. Earlier in the day he missed the split and this indicates that he is not at 100% yet. Usually, however, he is very strong at windy racing and should be able to make the selection. On paper, only Kittel is faster than him in this race and if he is still there, he may finally take a win.

 

Heinrich Haussler is in excellent condition at the moment and he is always very strong in windy conditions. The Australian is likely to make every key selection and he is very fast in a sprint from a small group. He may find himself a bit isolated in the finale but if he can position himself well for the sprint, he could take another win in Qatar.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. At the end of a hard day of racing, the door could be open for attacks from a small group where everybody is fatigued. That’s how Niki Terpstra won the first stage last year and he will be keen to make a repeat. With Etixx-QuickStep likely to have strength in numbers, they could send the defending champion off in a late move and with no team likely to have too many riders to support their sprinters, he will be hard to bring back.

 

Lars Boom has been riding excellently all year and he could use a similar tactics. The Dutchman is a strong rouleur and is almost guaranteed to make the splits. If he attacks in the finale, he will be difficult to catch and he even has a fast sprint that will make it possible for him to beat a few escape companions.

 

Another rider that has shown his aggressive attitude is Greg Van Avermaet who looked really strong in today’s race. Like his teammate Philippe Gilbert, he knows that he won’t beat the likes of Boonen and Sagan in the sprint and so they will try to attack in the finale. BMC are very strong and could have lots of cards to play in the final kilometres and both Gilbert and Van Avermaet will be strong enough to finish it off.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tom Boonen

Other winner candidates: Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff

Outsiders: Arnaud Demare, Marcel Kittel, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Nacer Bouhanni, Heinrich Haussler

Jokers: Niki Terpstra, Lars Boom, Greg Van Avermaet, Philippe Gilbert