Today's crosswind whittled the number of potential winners of the Tour of Qatar down to just a select few and tomorrow another selection will take place. This time, however, there will be no need for crosswind skills or battling for position as the third stage is the crucial 10.9km time trial. On paper, the specialists should come to the fore but the technical and short nature of the course may open the door for a wider range of potential winners. Starting at 12.45 CET, you can follow the exciting stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The course

The third day of the race will be the one for the second individual time trial in the race's history and while much of the race will be determined in the crosswinds, the 10.9km race against the clock will open up significant time gaps that will play a crucial role in the final GC.

 

The stage will be held on the Lusail Circuit just north of Doha where the team time trial took place in 2012, won by Garmin-Sharp. The area hosts a shooting complex, a motorcycle circuit, and the Technical Center of the Qatar Cycling Federation which the riders will pass along their way.

 

Compared to the inaugural time trial of the 2011 edition which was a very short and very technical affair held in the city of Doha and which was won by Lars Boom ahead of Fabian Cancellara, at 10.9km this stage is much longer. However, it remains very technical and contains several corners which require the riders to get back up to speed.

 

The stage is held on a short 5km road that takes the riders from the start through two roundabouts where they will turn right. Having reached the shooting complex, they will make a U-turn in another roundabout before going all the way back to the site of the start and finish which they will pass with a little less than 4km to go.

 

Having turned right in another roundabout, they reach the second turning point a little less than 2km from the finish. Having again turned around in a roundabout, they continue back to the finish, with the final left-hand turn in a roundabout coming 650m from the line. With no less than 8 roundabouts in a 10.9km course, acceleration and technical abilities will be just as important as brute force.

 

 

The weather

For once, the weather forecast doesn't play a crucial role in a Tour of Qatar stage but the riders will have taken notice of it. It will be a sunny day, with temperatures expected to reach around 18 degrees, making the conditions very similar to today's.

 

That will also be the case for the wind which will have the same strength and direction as today's. It will again blow from a northwestern direction, meaning that the riders will generally have a tailwind in the first part, a headwind in the middle and a tailwind when they have made the second U-turn. Luckily, the conditions won't change throughout the day, meaning that all riders should be able to do their race on equal terms.

 

The favourites

On paper, the stage should be one for the time trial specialists who will all relish the fact that they will face a completely flat route. There are a number of flat straights where they can really use their power and brute force but things may be a bit more complicated than one would expect at first.

 

The many corners mean that the longest straights are only around 2km and there will be constant changes in rhythm that forces the rider to slow down and get back up to speed. This clearly favours the sprinters who have that natural ability to accelerate and may open the stage a bit more for a wider range of riders. Sprinters are generally good prologue riders but the stage may be a bit too long to their liking, with the distance being in favour of the specialists.

 

Whenever he heads down the ramp to start a time trial and neither Tony Martin nor Bradley Wiggins are present, Fabian Cancellara is the favourite to win and it won't be any different tomorrow. The Swiss has done a lot to play down expectations, insisting that illness and a training crash have hampered his preparation and repeatedly stating that he is only in the Middle East to prepare for later objectives.

 

That is certainly true but there is no doubt that he will give it his all in tomorrow's time trial. Despite his many travails, his condition is not too bad as he proved when he finished 5th in the opening time trial of the Dubai Tour which had a much stronger TT field.  Since then his condition will only have improved and he will only relish the many corners in tomorrow's stage that allow him to make use of his exceptional technical skills.

 

Many were a bit surprised not to find him in the front group today but there is a natural reason for his absence. When the peloton first split, he was where he needed to be but when Omega Pharma-Quick Step again attacked, a crash forced him to brake hard just before the corner that signaled the change in wind direction.

 

His GC hopes have now been crushed and all he can achieve in Qatar is now a win in the time trial. With a solid condition and a technical course, the Swiss will be the rider to beat.

 

Lieuwe Westra is one of the best time trialists in the world and if he is at his best, he is hard to beat on a course like this one. His time trial results speak for themselves and as he has twice finished second in the final time trial of the Three Days of De Panne which is very similar to tomorrow's both in terms of distance and nature, he is well-suited to this kind of short, technical challenge.

 

If he is at his peak, Westra is the rider who can potentially beat Cancellara in this time trial but his level of condition is somewhat uncertain. He is part of Astana's Tour de France roster and his objectives are not in the near future. In the Tour Down Under, he didn't show the best signs and on stage 1 he went into the early breakaway, signaling that he is in Qatar more for training than for results.

 

Nonetheless, he will doubtlessly give it a go in tomorrow's time trial and even though he missed today's split, his condition may not be too bad. Whether it will be enough to beat Cancellara remains to be seen but he is certainly one of the few who has the ability to do so.

 

While Westra's form is uncertain, it is exactly the opposite for Niki Terpstra. Despite being a solid time trialist, he would usually not be a favourite to win a such a short, technical race. His TT results are certainly noticeable but the Dutchman doesn't belong to the real time trialing elite.

 

However, Terpstra proved in the first two stages of the race that his condition is exceptionally good and this could make the difference in tomorrow's race. His sprint into the headwind on stage 1 was nothing short of impressive and he will have the added incentive of being the overall leader of the race. Terpstra may never have won a time trial before but at a time of the season when condition is everything, no one can rule out that it will be a first tomorrow.

 

Prior to the race, we would have made Svein Tuft one of our main favourites to win this stage. The Canadian is a past winner of both the prologue and the time trial of the Eneco Tour, proving that he masters this kind of short, intense time trials. His Orica-GreenEDGE team had great hopes for their TT ace in this race but he appears to be a bit shy of condition, having been left behind in the echelons on the first two stages.

 

At the same time, the course may be a bit too technical for him to really excel and he is now more of an outsider than a real favourite. Nonetheless, it would be stupid to rule out a win for the rider who was the driving force behind Orica-GreenEDGE's win in last year's Tour de France team time trial.

 

Lars Boom usually starts his seasons very strongly and at this time last year he won the time trial in the Tour Mediteraneen. By making the front group and launching a good attack into the headwind today, he proved that he is again in great condition right from the start.

 

In the past, Boom was a really good time trialist, especially in shorter ones, but in recent years his results haven't been completely up to his former standard. He will like the technical nature of the course and his condition should allow him to finish among the best but  he will need to improve on his recent showings to take a win in Qatar.

 

Our final two outsiders are two track specialists who excel on this kind of short courses. Michael Hepburn has had a difficult in his first time as a professional and his results haven't lived up to expectations. In this year's national TT championships, however, he suddenly proved why there has been so much hype around the talented Australian when he beat Luke Durbridge to take the title.

 

He has now turned his back to the track and is completely focused on the road and this should serve him well. He has finished far off the mark in the first two stages but it is more due to his lack of positioning skills than a lack of raw power. If he can rediscover the feelings he had in January, he will be a danger man.

 

Another track specialist is Jesse Sergent. The New Zealander has been highly inconsistent in his time trial performances but when he is at his best, he excels in time trials of this length. Last year he was 3rd in the Eneco TT and he won that stage in 2011.

 

Until now, he has not shown great form in Qatar but he has never shown much strength in windy racing. His lack of results could be a consequence of his lack of positioning skills than a lack of form and if that is the case, he will be close to the top tomorrow.

 

Finally, we will select two jokers. Usually, Tom Boonen would never be expected to be in contention for the win in a time trial of this length but it would be unwise not to keep an eye on Mr. Qatar tomorrow. The technical nature suits him well and he will be able to handle the distance.

 

Actually, Boonen is no bad time trialits. In 2009 he was 2nd in the Vuelta prologue and that same year he finished just outside the top 10 in the first long time trial. In January, he was 7th in the Tour de San Luis TT which was held on a flat, power course that suited him less than tomorrow's.

 

Boonen is obviously in splendid condition and he will go all out as he is still in GC contention. This may take him far and we wouldn't be surprised to see him finish in the top 3.

 

Finally, we will point to Daniele Bennati. The Italian may mostly be known as a sprinter but he is an excellent time trialist as well. In 2012 he was only beaten by Fabian Cancellara in the Tirreno TT and in 2011 he won the TT in Circuit de la Sarthe. Those stages were both rather short and both the distance and the technical nature of tomorrow's stage will suit him well.

 

He has claimed to be in a rather good condition and so we were a bit surprised to see him miss out in the selection in stage 1. His presence in today's front group, however, proved that he is not going to bad and tomorrow could be the day when he again puts his TT skills on show.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Fabian Cancellara

Other winner candidates: Lieuwe Westra, Niki Terpstra

 Outsiders: Svein Tuft, Lars Boom, Michael Hepburn, Jesse Sergent

Jokers: Tom Boonen, Daniele Bennati