Alexander Kristoff again delivered a demonstration of force to take his third win in just five days of racing and now he is suddenly an overall threat for race leader Niki Terpstra. The final stage of the desert race has often been an easy, fast day for the sprinters but with bonus second both at the finish and in the intermediate sprints, the overall win is up for grabs right until the end of the race.

 

The course

With one exception, the road stages of the Tour of Qatar can all end in a true crosswind battle. The one exception comes on the final day. Like plenty of other stage races, the race ends with a criterium-like race in the capital, with the riders ending their stay in Qatar by doing 10 laps of a 5.7km circuit on the Doha Corniche.

 

The stage has varied a bit in length from year to year but has mostly had the same format since the inaugural edition in 2002. At 113.5km, the course will be identical to the one used 12 months ago and will again start at the Sealine Beach Resort south of the capital as it has been the case for most of the races. From there the riders will head straight north through the cities of Mesaieed and Al Wakra before reaching the final circuit after 55km and crossing the line for the first time at the 56.5km mark.

 

The riders will then start their first of 10 laps on the 5.7km circuit which is a banana-shaped one held completely on the main coastal road in the city centre. The riders will simply travel 2.6km in one direction before making a very broad U-turn and head back in the opposite direction. The road has a slight bending trend but is completely flat. The final U-turn comes 1.3km from the finish and from there the scene is set for a big bunch sprint on a very wide road with a width of 11m. The intermediate sprints come at the end of the third and sixth laps.

 

In 2013 Mark Cavendish took the spoils and he is preceded on the winners list by great sprinters like Arnaud Demare, Andrea Guardini, Francesco Chicchi, and Cavendish himself. Of course Tom Boonen has also won this stage, having crossed the line in first in both 2007 and 2008. Last year Demare won the stage for the second time in his career and it offers a fitting end that perfectly reflects a week of fast, high-speed racing in the desert.

 

 

The weather

The wind ended up not being strong enough to create any lasting damage in today’s stage as it abated throughout the day. That trend will continue until late in the evening where it will again start to pick up form a northwesterly direction. At around midday, it will turn back to a southeasterly direction but in general there will be very little wind for the final stage.

 

The riders will start their stage after the wind direction has changed and this means that they will have a cross-tailwind until they hit the circuit. Here they will first have a tailwind, then a headwind and finally a tailwind for the 1.3km finishing straight.

 

After today’s many clouds, it will be a sunny day in Qatar and the riders can expect maximum temperatures of 29 degrees.

 

The favourites

The final stage of the Tour of Qatar is usually a typical end to a national tour. A short, flat stage ending with a few laps of a fast circuit in the centre of the capital usually gives rise to some predictable racing with a big bunch sprint in the end. The final stage of the Tour of Qatar has never been any different but this year the race has been given another twist as the overall win in still up for grabs.

 

With another stage win – and an impressive performance by Katusha who single-handedly split the peloton in the finale – Kristoff reduced his overall deficit to just 11 seconds and he now has a very realistic chance at stealing the overall win on the final day. Another stage win will see him get to within 1 second of the lead and this means that he just needs to finish third in one of the intermediate sprint – and win the stage – to win the race overall.

 

This will have a clear effect on the dynamic of the race. There will be a cross-tailwind in the opening section along the coast and in the past, the peloton has actually split here. Tomorrow, however, there will barely be any wind and this means that the race is unlikely to be too nervous and we should be in for a pretty straightforward sprint stage.

 

For Etixx-QuickStep, the perfect scenario would be to have a non-dangerous break get up the road and take away the bonus seconds. The opening phase of these final stages is usually pretty aggressive as it is the final chance for most teams to get a stage win and with no sprint favourite, they need to go on the attack. This means that a pretty strong breakaway usually gets clear which would be to the pleasure of the Etixx riders. They just have to be on their toes in the early part of the stage to make sure that no GC rider gets into the mix and then they can lean back and leave the chase work to Katusha and the other sprint teams.

 

It will be very interesting to see which approach Kristoff and Katusha have. Will they focus on the stage win or will they try to take it all by having Kristoff picking up a bonus second? The latter strategy may impact his chances in the final sprint and requires a bit more work. On the other hand, another stage win wouldn’t really change too much for Kristoff: the really big coup would be to take the overall.

 

It would almost be a failure for Katusha not to try to win the race so we expect them to go for the overall. That means that Kristoff needs to contest one of the intermediate sprints. As the second one comes just 23km from the finish, it will be too risky for him to go all out in a sprint so close to the line. Hence, the team is likely to try to bring things back together for the first intermediate sprint with 40km to go. That sets the scene for a very fast race with Katusha being forced to chase hard.

 

If things are back together for the first sprint, Etixx-QuickStep have to try to attack as Kristoff will definitely make it into the top 3 in a sprint. However, Katusha have looked pretty strong and they should be able to control the situation. Etixx-QuickStep will probably have both Terpstra and Tom Boonen doing the sprint and we may also see the likes of Heinrich Haussler and Peter Sagan going for the bonifications.

 

With the sprint out of the way, the door will be open for new attacks and we are likely to see another break get clear. This time Katusha will be in no hurry and the escapees can easily pick up the final bonus seconds. They probably won’t get too much of advantage though and now Katusha can expect to get a lot of assistance. Giant-Alpecin, Astana, FDJ and Cofidis could all lend a hand to the Russians, meaning that the stage is destined to end in a bunch sprint.

 

This kind of sprint is one that suits the pure sprinters. With no crosswind action expected, it comes at the end of what will be a fast, short day and this means that everyone will be pretty fresh in the end. Furthermore, the tailwind, long finishing straight and big, wide road will make it a very fast one and one that has traditionally been dominated by the riders with the highest top speed.

 

Until now Kristoff has been virtually unstoppable but tomorrow the Norwegian may have a harder time. This sprint suits other sprinters a lot more and it will be more about speed than brute force. One rider who excels in those conditions is Andrea Guardini and it is no wonder that he is already a past winner of this stage. This year he has even taken a step up compared and he has been riding incredibly well in Qatar, making all the splits in the crosswinds despite usually being one of the first to get dropped.

 

Guardini showed how fast he is in this kind of sprint when he nearly passed Mark Cavendish in the opening stage of the Dubai Tour. Yesterday he clearly had the speed to beat Kristoff but he got boxed in towards the barrier by Adam Blythe. Usually, he has found it hard to position himself for the sprint but he has improved a lot in that area and Astana have a pretty strong train in this race. Furthermore, the wide finishing straight means that there will be room for everyone. Usually, Guardini is the fastest rider in this kind of finish and if he isn’t forced to start from too far back, he will be our favourite.

 

On paper that kind of sprint doesn’t suit Alexander Kristoff very well but at the moment he seems to be the strongest rider in the bunch. He usually excels in sprints that come at the end of long, hard days but this one is the exact opposite. By winning stage 4 which was very similar to tomorrow’s stage as everybody was fresh at the finish, however, he proved that he has improved a lot in the pure sprints and it was no coincidence that he finished second in last year’s Champs Elysees stage at the Tour de France.

 

Kristoff may not be the fastest guy in this kind of sprint but he is always able to position himself very well. His Katusha lead-out with Marco Haller and Jacopo Guarnieri has been working extremely well and there is no doubt that he will be in prime position when the sprint starts. There may be a few faster guys but they are unlikely to be in the same position as the strong Norwegian who is also likely to be more fresh after 5 days of hard racing. It may be harder than usual but Kristoff could definitely take win number four tomorrow.

 

Marcel Kittel is still suffering from the effects of his recent illness and he has not been riding very well in Qatar. This stage, however, suits him perfectly and there is a bigger chance that he will be fresh enough to give it a go in the finish that there has been in the past few stages.

 

Kittel may not be in top condition but this sprint will be more about speed than endurance and this should see him be in the mix if he decides to give it a go. Furthermore, he can count on the strongest lead-out who really did everything right to position Nikias Arndt in yesterday’s stage. Giant-Alpecin are likely to dominate the finale and if they have Kittel at the back of their train, the German may take the win.

 

Arnaud Demare has already won this sprint twice but he has not been riding very well in Qatar. In fact he has always been forced to start his sprints very far back but he has shown an incredible turn of speed in the sprints. Tomorrow’s easier stage should suit him well and with the wide finishing straight, he is less likely to get boxed in and may not pay too much for the fact that his lead-out train has not been working very well. Demare has won this stage twice in the past and it is perfectly suited to the fast Frenchman.

 

Until now, Nacer Bouhanni has had no luck in this race but he actually seems to be riding at a decent level. Today he did his best sprint yet but as it has been the case in all stages, he had to start too far back. This time there will be room for everyone though and this means that he is likely to be rewarded for his very fast speed as he is one of the fastest riders in this bunch.

 

If Giant-Alpecin decide to ride for him, Nikias Arndt will be in with a shot. There are definitely faster riders than him and the sprint doesn’t really suit him but he will be supported by the strongest lead-out train. This means that he is likely to start his sprint from the best position which should provide him with opportunities. It will be hard to hold off the faster riders but he could create a surprise.

 

Peter Sagan has twice been close to the win and tomorrow he should again be in the mix. However, this sprint doesn’t suit him very well as it is all about speed and less about positioning and technical skills. This means that it will be hard for him to win the stage but as he seems to get better and better, a podium spot is within reach.

 

Our big joker is Nicola Ruffoni. The Italian is an exceptional talent and has the speed to mix it up with the very best in these finishes. Unfortunately, he has to fight on his own in the finales and this means that he is always out of position at the start of the sprint. With this wide road, however, there should be room for him to move up and this could see him take a breakthrough win.

 

Sam Bennett has been close to the podium twice this year and the Irishman is knocking on the door for his first big win. The Bora-Argon 18 train has been strengthened and even though they have made a few mistakes, they seem to have the power to position their sprinter reasonably. Last year he proved that he has the speed to be up against the best sprinters and so he should be a contener.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Andrea Guardini

Other winner candidates: Alexander Kristoff, Marcel Kittel

Outsiders: Arnaud Demare, Nacer Bouhanni, Nikias Arndt, Peter Sagan

Jokers: Nicola Ruffoni, Sam Bennett, Sacha Modolo