On the day where the classics season comes to an end, it is already time to turn the attention to the next phase of the international cycling calendar: upcoming grand tours. The main contenders are busy finalizing their preparations for the Giro d'Italia and do so by splitting into two camps. While the GC contenders head to the climbs in Trentino and Romandie, the sprinters get ready for the Italian three-week race on the sunny roads in beautiful Turkey that also allows the future climbing stars to chase success in a major stage race.

 

Turkey is certainly not known as a cycling powerhouse but every year the country takes a prominent place in the spotlight to showcase how much it has to offer for the avid cyclist. Like nearby countries Qatar and Oman, Turkey doesn't have a rich cycling scene and any high-level riders but over the past few years they have established a very important and highly popular event on the international cycling calendar that both showcases the beauties of the country and serves as the perfect preparation for the major European races.

 

First held in 1964, the Tour of Turkey is actually an old race but for many years its existence was almost unnoticed by the cycling world. As a lower-ranked event on the UCI calendar, it mostly attracted local riders and smaller teams and the professional peloton never touched Turkish soil. That all changed in 2008 when the Turkish government decided to use the sport of cycling to expose the country as a perfect tourist location and they saw a national tour along the sunny coast as the perfect means to achieve that objective.

 

With a money injection, the race saw a major upgrade and after having been granted 2.1 status in 2008, the race was even elevated to 2.HC status in 2010. The days where it was an event for smaller continental teams are now over and when the 2014 edition of the race takes off on Sunday, no less than 8 of the 18 ProTeams will be at the start to get in a week of quality racing on sunny roads. After initially only attracting smaller names from the best teams, the team now also attracts some of the sport's major stars and the Tour of Turkey has certainly grown to fame within the cycling world.

 

It is no coincidence that the race is able to attract plenty of the sport's largest squads. Held in the last part of April, the race is a perfect preparation event for the Giro d'Italia and while the traditional warm-up race in Romandie is famous for its rainy conditions, the riders are almost guaranteed to get 8 days of quality racing under the sun in a very well-organized event.  After its upgrade, it was originally held two weeks earlier but the organizers and the UCI made the wise decision to move it a bit closer to the Giro to create greater synergy between the two events.

 

For the Giro contenders, the Tour of Turkey fills an obvious void in the cycling calendar. The Tour of Romandie and the other major preparation race in Trentino are extremely hilly and offer almost no possibilities for the sprinters. Hence, the fast men have very few chances to test their legs ahead of the battles on the Italian roads if they line up in Italy or Switzerland. On the contrary, the long trip along the Turkish coast has plenty of terrain for the sprinters and even though organizers have hardened the race somewhat in recent editions, the fast men still have plenty of chances to show off their speed. It is thus no surprise to see the Giro riders split into two camps: the GC riders head to the mountains in Trentino and Romandie while the sprinters travel to sunny Turkey.

 

In the first years after the upgrade, the race was a sprint festival where the GC was determined on some of the lumpier stages along the coast that contained some solid climbing but no major ascents. Listening to the wishes from the teams, the organizers have made the GC battle more attractive over the last few years. The first major initiative was the inclusion of the mountaintop finish at Elmali - the mountain known as Turkey's Alpe d'Huez - for the 2012 edition and last year another summit finish was added in Selcuk to make sure that the GC was not all decided in a single stage. This has turned the race into more of a "real" stage race, with the stages being more diverse and offering opportunities for different kinds of riders.

 

The first editions after the race's upgrade in 2008 were mostly characterized by professional continental teams going head to head with some of the younger riders on the ProTeams but this has changed in recent years. Despite the addition of harder stages, the race is still unable to compete with the Tour de Romandie for the attention from the GC stars and so the GC battle is still mostly reserved for young talents who get a rare chance to ride for themselves in a major UCI race. On the other hand, the race will greet one of the most formidable line-up of sprinters seen at any point during the season. Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel, Andrea Guardini, Theo Bos, Elia Viviani, Sacha Modolo, Aidis Kruopis, Leigh Howard, Marco Haller, Filippo Fortin, Nicola Ruffoni, Francesco Lasca, Edwin Avila, Wouter Wippert, Kristian Sbaragli, Youcef Reguigui, Martijn Verschoor, Michael Van Staeyen, Robert Förster, Ken Hanson, Danilo Napolitano, Francesco Chicchi and Yury Metlushenko are just some of the names who are expected to battle it out in the sprints during the coming week.

 

While the race has gained an important status as a crucial sporting event, it also serves its original purpose of promoting Turkey as a tourist destination. The race is broadcast live on Eurosport and showcases off a number of the tourist attractions found along the Turkish coast while the riders battle it out on the nearby roads. The race could certainly be made tougher and more attractive from a sporting point of view by getting deeper into the mountains but the main purpose remains to showcase the beauty of the sunny Turkish coast.

 

Unfortunately, the race has been rocked by doping scandals over the last few years and as the race heads into its 50th anniversary, it really needs a credible winner. After some great editions in the first years after its upgrade, the race has been tarnished since including the Elmali mountaintop finish two years ago. The local Torku Sekerspor team has produced surprise winners twice in a row but both veteran Ivailo Gabrovski and young sensation Mustafa Sayar later tested positive after having beating the WorldTour stars in the biggest race for their team. This year Torku Sekerspor again earned an invitation but have been forced to take a few anti-doping initiatives to prove themselves worthy of their spot in the race.

 

Last year it was local rider Mustafa Sayar who upset the race favourites. Initially, it seemed that the young Eritrean Europcar rider Natnael Berhane would take his first major stage race win as he won the queen stage to Elmali but he failed to produce a similarly splendid performance in the new summit finish in Sercuk. Sayar rode away from his rivals to take a dominant stage win and the overall lead which he defended in the final two sprint stages. Shortly after the race, however, it emerged that the Torku Sekerspor rider had tested positive earlier in the year and even though the case still hasn't been settled, Berhane is likely to be awarded the overall victory. Apart from the two GC battles, the race was dominated by the best sprinters in the world, with Marcel Kittel taking three pure sprint stages and André Greipel overcoming some tough climbing to take two wins. Only Aidis Kruopis managed to break the German domination when he won a crash-marred second stage in Antalya. Europcar won't return to the race this year and so neither Berhane nor third placed Maxime Mederel will return to the race but runner-up Yoann Bagot will try to do one better as he lines up as part of a strong Cofidis team. Kittel has chosen to skip this year's race as he prefers to use the Romandie mountains to prepare for his first Giro but Greipel will be back as he makes his return to competition after breaking his collarbone at Gent-Wevelgem.

 

The course

Over the last few years, the organizers have followed a very similar format for the design of the course. As an important purpose of the race is to promote Turkey as a tourist destination, the race takes in a very predictable route along the sunny Turkish coast while it visits some of the most important cities along the way and several of the start and finishing venues have been visited several times. Riders who have done the race before will be intimately familiar with many of the finales and roads and some stages are identical copies of ones used for past editions of the race.

 

Originally, the race stayed near the coast for the entire race but in 2012 the race made a small deviation from that pattern when it made its first visit to the Elmali climb in the mountains in the southern part of the country. The brutal ascent will again feature on this year's course before the race returns back to the coast. The main idea for the course has always been to travel along the sea between Istanbul and the tourist city of Alanya. Originally, the race started in Istanbul but in 2012 the direction was changed. This year organizers have chosen to stick to this idea and the race will once again finish in the biggest Turkish city.

 

Last year the organizers included the new summit finish in Selcuk and it will again be back on the map for the 2014 edition of the race. In fact, the course is almost an identical copy of last year's race. Some stages are completely identical to last years and some have been given a few twists but only the second stage of the race visits a new finishing city. This means that the nature of the race is very identical to last year's as it is made up of four flat stages for the pure sprinters, two stages that may suit the stronger sprinters or a breakaway, and two summit finishes that will decide the GC.

 

Stage 1:

For the third year in a row, the race kicks off in its former finishing city, the tourist destination of Alanya, with a short, flat stage for the sprinters. The 141km route is almost identical to the one that was used for last year's opener and is almost completely flat.

 

From the start, the riders do most of a lap of the 16.9km circuit that brings the riders all the way around Alanya on big, wide roads. From there, they follow the flat coastal road to the city of Gazipasa a little further down the road where they make a U-turn to return to Alanya along the same road. On the way out, they make a small deviation from the direct route as they briefly leave the coast to go up a small category 3 climb at the 54.8km mark. It is not major challenge though and will mainly serve to find the first leader of the KOM competition. Just after the turning point, the riders will contest the say's intermediate sprint.

 

Having returned to Alanya, the riders cross the finish line where they will contest the Turkish Beauty sprint that determines the first leader of that special competition. They end the stage by doing two laps of the 16.9km finishing circuit. The circuit is completely non-technical with only two corners and the roads are very big. There's a sharp turn more than 1km from the line and then it's an almost completely straight road to the finish along the seafront.

 

Apart from the early small climb, there are no major challenges on the course and it is almost impossible to imagine that the race won't kick off with a big battle between the sprinters. Compared to last year's stage, the riders do an extra lap at the end but the turning point is now a bit closer to Alanya, meaning that the distance is virtually unchanged. That Alanya is a sprinter's paradise is reflected by the list of winners as Marcel Kittel, Theo Bos, Kenny Van Hummel, André Greipel, Sebastian Siedler and Maximilano Richeze are the winners in the city since the upgrade of the race.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

The sprinters that lost the first battle will get a chance to take their revenge in Monday's second stage before the riders head into the mountains. Usually, the riders have travelled along the coast between Alanya and Antalya on this stage but this year the Tour of Turkey will not visit the latter city. Instead, they will pass it to continue a bit further down the road to the city of Kemer, increasing the distance from 150km to 175km.

 

Almost all day they will be following the coastal road and the only point where they will make a small digression is around Antalya which is located in one of the flattest parts of Turkey. Hence, the stage will be almost completely flat and there will be no categorized climbs at all. This makes it another perfect day for the sprinters who will get a formidable chance to battle it out on a long, straight road in Kemer. The riders will make a left-hand turn from the main road onto the road that leads into the city centre and from there it is completely straight for the final few kilometres. The wind rarely plays a role in the Tour of Turkey and so it is hard to imagine that it will not be an almost complete bunch that decides the first winner of a stage to Kemer.

 

 

 

Stage 3:

Until now the GC riders have bided their time but on the third day, it is time for the single most decisive stage of the race. For the third year in a row, the riders will climb the Elmali known as Turkey's Alpe d'Huez and even though the addition of an extra summit finish means that it won't determine the GC completely, it remains the most important day of the race.

 

This year it's significance will only be increased by the fact that the stage is longer and the first part more difficult than it has been in the past. With the stage now starting in Finike, the riders will approach Elmali from the hilly south which makes the stage quite a bit harder. Furthermore, the distance has been increased from 153.5km to 186km, making it a really tough day in the saddle.

 

After a first flat part along the coast, the riders contest the Turkish Beauty sprint at the 27km mark where they turn inland to head up the day's first category 2 climb that brings them up to more than 600m of altitude. After a rolling section and a short descent, the riders reach the challenge that makes this year's stage so much harder than its previous versions. The riders will go up the category 1 Kuruovabeli climb which summits at 1560m above sea level, reaching the top at the 104.8km mark. A short descent is followed by several flat kilometres on a plateau that leads to the bottom of the famous Elmali climb.

 

The climb is 11.5km long and has an average gradient of 6-7%. The second half, however, is very steep and the in the past two editions of the races, the peloton has blown to pieces, with the riders crossing the line one by one. The climb is hard enough to produce some big time gaps on a day that suits the pure climbers. In 2012, Ivailo Gabrovski crushed the opposition on this climb but after his positive doping control, the stage win was given to Alexandr Dyachenko who beat Danail Petrov by 3 seconds, with only 6 riders finishing within a minute of the stage winner. Last year Natnael Berhane made a strong late acceleration to put 6 seconds into Kevin Seeldraeyers and Mustafa Sayar on a day when 14 riders finished within a minute of the talented Eritrean.

 

 

 

Stage 4:

The fourth stage is an identical copy of a stage that already featured in the 2012 edition of the race and the final two-thirds are identical to the fourth stage of last year's edition as well. Hence, many riders will be intimately familiar with the lumpy nature of the route on a day that could offer several different scenarios and is not one for the pure sprinters.

 

The stage is a short one as it heads over just 132km from Fethiye to Marmaris and even though the riders stay near the coast all day, the area is sufficiently hilly to make it a tough day in the saddle. The course is littered with short climbs and even though only one is categorized, it is a day full of ups and downs.

 

After three smaller ascents, the riders go up the day's category 3 climb, summiting at the 32.5km mark. From there the terrain is significantly easier as the peloton continues its westerly journey along the coast but things get difficult when they make a left-hand turn 31.4km from the finish.

 

Having contested the Turkish Beauty sprint 2.4km further up the road, the riders now cross a peninsula that sends them up two climbs. The top of the first and smallest one comes 25km from the finish but the main challenge is the final ascent that takes the riders up to around 250m of altitude. The top comes inside the final 10km of the stage and then it is a fast descent all the way to the finish in Marmaris. With only the final 2.5km being flat. The finish is a technical one as the riders do a sharp right-hand turn just 1.5km from the finish and then do another two turns before reaching the final 90-degree left-hand corner just 500m to the line. It leads onto the finishing straight along the seafront and history proves that it is very important to be well-placed at this point.

 

As time gaps have opened up, the stage could be one for a strong breakaway but history proves that it is usually one for the sprinters who have a solid pair of climbing legs. Last year Andre Greipel survived the lat climbs before beating Nikias Arndt and Moreno Hofland in the sprint while one year earlier, Mark Renshaw held off Matthew Goss in a very close battle. In 2011 when a stage had the same finale, Manuel Belletti won a sprint from a reduced peloton while we have to go back to 2010 to find the last successful breakaway. That year Giovanni Visconti was the strongest from a 5-rider group that escaped on the final climb while Daryl Impey won from a long-distance break one year earlier. In any case, many riders have marked this one out as a chance for a successful escape and so we can expect some fast and aggressive racing all day.

 

 

 

Stage 5:

The fifth stage is an exact copy of the one that featured at the same point of last year's race and the final part is identical to the one used for the fifth stage in 2012 as well. At 183km, the route from Marmaris to Turgutreis is one of the longest of the race and it is maybe the one that offers a breakaway the best chance to stay away.

 

The stage has a tough beginning as the riders again cross the hilly peninsula from the other side that they did in the previous stage, meaning that they face two small climbs right from the beginning. The first is even categorized and its top comes already at the 4.5km mark. The main challenge, however, comes after 30km of racing when the peloton tackles a category  climb that takes them up to more than 600m of altitude and summits at the 36.5km mark.

 

There is no immediate descent and the riders now face 75km of constantly rolling terrain with several uncategorized climbs before they reach the long descent that takes them down to sea level and a flatter part of Turkey. The final 70km are almost mostly flat even though there are a few smaller hills along the way. The final is non-technical as there are only two sweeping bends inside the final 2km, with the finish line coming at the end of a 1km long straight road. There is a 500m climb with an average gradient of 5% between the 1.5km and the 1km to go marks, offering a springboard for a late attack.

 

In the past, this stage has both been won by escapees and strong sprinters. History proves that the race usually blows to pieces in the very tough first part of the stage and in the previous two editions, the pure sprinters have never made it back in contention and so haven't profited from the easy end to the stage. In 2012, a break stayed away, with Andrea Di Corrado taking a solo win while Matteo Pelucchi won the bunch sprint 1.27 later. Last year, a reduced bunch sprinted for the win in Turgutreis, with André Greipel beating Matteo Trentin and Nikias Arndt. All scenarios are possible in this stage and it depends on the strength of the early breakaway and the level of cooperation among the sprint teams whether this is a stage for the sprinters or a an early escape.

 

 

 

Stage 6:

Friday is the day when the final GC will be decided as the riders face the summit finish in Selcuk for the second time. Again the 182km route from Bodrum to Selcuk is an identical copy of the one used for last year's stage and so several riders will be familiar with the terrain.

 

The riders are currently travelling along the western coast of Turkey and this coastline is not nearly as hilly as the one they faced in the southern part of the country. Hence, the first 150km of the stage are rather easy as the riders travel along mostly flat roads near the coast. There are a few smaller hills along the way but they should make no difference.

 

The selection will start at the 150km mark when the riders hit the bottom of the day's first climb which is of the third category. The first part is just a gentle rise but the second part is steeper. It will make the first gradual selection and tops 21.6km from the finish. Then there is another very small hill preceding the fast descent and short flat run-in to the bottom of the final climb. It's a tough affair on a winding road that takes the riders from sea level to 400m above sea level in around 5km, meaning that it's an average gradient of 8%.

 

The main time gaps will have opened up on the Elmali climb but there is still plenty of room for adjustments in this tough finale and as last year proved, no one can expect things to stay as they are after this final hard stage of the race. The most likely scenario is that all will be back together by the time, they hit the bottom of the finishing climb and then the peloton will explode to pieces. Being much shorter than Elmali, the stage suits the punchier guys more than the real climbers. Last year Mustafa Sayar showed lots of punch when he left everybody else behind and put 18 seconds into 2nd placed Yoann Bagot whose teammate Nicolas Edet followed 23 seconds later. The first 18 riders finished within a minute of the stage winner and crossed the line in small groups. With just two flat stages to go, there is no reason for the GC riders to hold anything back and at the top of the Selcuk climb we will know who's going to win the 2014 Tour of Turkey.

 

 

 

Stage 7:

The Tour of Turkey may be known as a race for sprinters but there is a great chance that the pure sprinters have not had their chance since the second day of the race. Hence, they will be pleased to know that the final two stages have bunch sprint written all over them.

 

The penultimate stage brings the riders over 132km from Kusadasi to Izmir, one of Turkey's biggest cities. The start of the stage has been moved a bit, meaning that it is 8km longer than it was one year ago, but otherwise it is an identical copy of the one used for the 2012 and 2013 editions of the race. The riders will mostly travel along a very flat coastal road, meaning that there are very little challenges along the way on this short stage. The only one comes at the 59.8km mark when the riders cross a peninsula that sends them up a very small category 3 climb. From there it's almost completely flat to the finish in Izmir where the riders mostly travel along long, straight, wide roads until they make a 160-degree turn at the flamme rouge. From there, it is a long straight road to the finish, suiting the really powerful sprinters.

 

It is hard to imagine that this stage won't end in a bunch sprint but when it first featured in 2012, the fast finishers were actually denied. Iljo Keisse was the last surviving member of an early breakaway and he battled hard to stay away when he went down in the final sharp turn. He managed to get back on his bike and dug deep to cross the line less than a second before being passed by a fast-finishing Marcel Kittel. Last year Kittel got his revenge when he beat Andrea Guardini in a big bunch sprint that is again expected to end this year's stage to Izmir.

 

 

 

Stage 8:

Like so many other national tours, the Tour of Turkey ends with a circuit stage for the sprinters in one of the biggest cities of the country but the finish of the Turkish race has a very special feature that no other race has. Overnight the riders will have travelled by plane from Izmir to Istanbul which is split into a European and Asian part and the stage is the only bike race on the international calendar to be held in two different continents.

 

The riders start in the European part of the city where they travel along the sea to the Bosporus Bridge that brings them to the Asian, eastern part. After descending from the bridge, they travel along flat roads to the 12.2km finishing circuit that is split into two. One part consists of a long straight road while the second has the riders travelling along a winding coastal road.

 

The riders cross the line for the first time after 23.4km of racing to stat the first of 8 laps of the circuit. The short 121km stage ends on the coastal road, with the riders making the final 160-degree turn 3km from the line. From there, it is a winding road to the finish along the Mediterranean Sea.

 

As it is the case for so many of these stages, it is virtually impossible for it not to end in a bunch sprint and the final circuit with its few corners and wide roads suit the pure sprinters perfectly. Last year Marcel Kittel beat Andrea Guardini and Andrew Fenn in the big bunch sprint while Theo Bos was stronger than Fenn and Stefan Van Dijk one year earlier. A big bunch sprint will again bring the Tour of Turkey to an end, making it a fitting conclusion to a race that is known for its splendid line-up of fast finishers.

 

 

 

The weather

Part of the reason for doing the Tour of Turkey is often the very good weather that the race can usually offer. While the Tour de Romandie is often plagued by rain and cold, there is almost a guarantee for sunshine in the Turkish race.

 

The wind direction also plays a big role as the riders are travelling in the same direction along the coast for most of the race. If they generally face a headwind, the race can be a very controlled affair that suits the sprinters while a tailwind makes it much easier for attackers to make a difference.

 

This year's race will kick off under beautiful sunshine in Alanya, with the temperature expected to reach a pleasant 20 degrees. However, it will be rather windy, with the wind coming from a southerly direction, meaning that there should be a lot of dangerous cross-tailwind as the riders head along the coast.

 

Unfortunately, the riders may be disappointed this year as rain is forecasted for the second day. The temperature will again be around 20 degrees but it will be less windy, with the wind coming from a southeasterly direction which means that there will generally be a cross-headwind in the finale.

 

There is again a slight risk of rain for Tuesday's queen stage but it will most probably stay dry. The temperature will again be around 20 degrees and there will only be a very light wind from a southerly direction.

 

Wednesday should be cloudy day that could again be a wet affair. The temperatures will be unchanged compared to the last few days  while there will only be a light wind from an easterly direction.

 

Thursday could be a very wet affair as the forecasts currently predict lots of rain, more wind from a southerly direction and lower temperatures of around 17 degrees. It seems that summer will finally arrive for the final three stages as the riders will have plenty of sunshine, 20-degree temperatures and a light wind form a northeasterly direction and it will only get better for the weekend.

 

Saturday should be a day of bright sunshine with a light wind from a southwesterly direction and 25-degree temperatures and it will all come to a close on a bright summer day in Istanbul with 27-degree temperatures, sunshine and a light wind from a southerly direction.

 

The favourites

The start list may be attracting most attention due to its fabulous line-up of sprinters as the race boasts a field of fast finishers that is one of the very strongest of the entire season. On the other hand, the biggest climbers all stay away from the Turkish race, often preferring to do Liege-Bastogne-Liege and/or the Tour de Romandie instead.

 

That makes the GC battle rather refreshing as it is a rare opportunity for the future stars to lead their respective teams in a big bike race and history proves that you may be a lot wiser about the upcoming grand tour contenders if you keep a close look at the GC in Turkey. If you want to see the battle between the biggest riders, there is no reason to follow the climbing stages in Turkey but if you want to see a refreshing race between some of the best talents, the Turkish race is the one to keep an eye on.

 

With no time trials and bonus seconds in the race, it will all come down to the best climbing legs and unless something unexpected happens, the race will be decided on stages 3 and 6. Stages 1, 2, 7 and 8 are clear affairs for sprinters while history proves that stages 4 and 5 are also not hard enough to make a difference. Furthermore, the number of sprinters in the race means that several teams have a genuine interest in setting up sprints on these days and this will make very little room for making a difference. Even though the riders are travelling along the coast, the wind has not played a big role in the race over the past few years.

 

The two climbing stages are a bit different. The long, steep climb to Elmali is one for the real climbers and should open up the biggest time differences while the Selcuk ascent is shorter and more for explosive riders. With Elmali being the hardest, the pure climbers have the upper hand but if a rider with a solid punch can keep himself in contention on day 3, he may turn the tables around three days later. That's what Mustafa Sayar did last year and there were quite some big changes in the Selcuk stage.

 

With none of the big stars present, the riders are also on a much more level playing field and the list of potential winners is both longer and more open than in most of the European races. This year we expect the race to turn into a real battle between some of the upcoming climbers and in fact our three biggest favourites are all neo-pros.

 

With the Elmali stage set to be the most decisive, our main favourite is 20-year-old Eritrean climbing sensation Merhawi Kudus who may become the second consecutive rider from the country in the eastern part of Africa to win the Turkish race. Having been trained at the UCI Cycling Centre in Aigle, Kudus only turned professional with MTN-Qhubeka at the beginning of this season but he has had a storming debut at the highest level.

 

His biggest achievement came at the Tour de Langkawi which is very much comparable to the Tour of Turkey. Both races are dominated by the sprinters, with one or two big summit finishes determining the GC. In that race, Kudus ended 2nd overall after having finished in the same position on the big climbing stage to Genting Highlands.

 

What made Kudus' performance impressive was not only the result but more the way in which it was achieved. In fact, the Eritrean had been left behind when a big group of more than 30 riders escaped early in the stage and they hit the bottom of the final climb with an advantage of more than 3 minutes. However, Kudus refused to give up and together with eventual winner Mirsamad Poorseyedigolakhour he bridged the gap to the group which contained several very strong WorldTour climbers. After joining the front, the pair still had enough left in the tank to battle it out for the stage win, with Kudus narrowly losing out to the Iranian.

 

Since returning to Europe, Kudus has not had the same kind of success but he has not been climbing any high mountains. On the Elmali ascent, he will find himself in his preferred terrain and he will be very hard to beat in a finish that suits a pure climber like him. For the Selcuk finish, he may be up against better riders and could lose a bit of time on the sixth day of racing but if he has the legs he had in Langkawi, he may already have a solid advantage by the time he reaches that point.

 

If he takes the jersey already on the third day he faces a difficult task of defending it, but in Langkawi he proved that he can handle the job of protecting a top position on GC. He is surrounded by a solid team that is led by Linus Gerdemann. The roster may lack strength in depth but with assistance from the sprint teams and Gerdemann, Kudus should be able to hold onto his lead if he emerges as the strongest rider in the race.

 

However, Kudus will not have it all his own way as he faces the opposition from other in-form neo-pros. One of those is Simon Yates who is one of the few riders to make an impression at the WorldTour level right from the beginning of his professional career. Having already ridden solidly at Paris-Nice, he proved that last year's win in the queen stage of the Tour of Britain and two stage victories at the Tour de l'Avenir were no flukes when he finished 12th overall in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco which is known as one of the hardest stage races of the entire year.

 

That was no mean feat for a 21-year-old neo-pro and even though he seems to have been struggling a bit in the later hilly classics, it proves that he in on form. He is an excellent climber but also very explosive and has a really fast sprint. The finish in Selcuk seems tailor-made for him and he will regret the lack of bonus seconds that could have seen him benefit a bit more from his fast finish.

 

Being part of a WorldTour team, he can expect formidable support even though most of his teammates are more geared towards the sprint finishes. However, he can count on his twin brother Adam who himself is a potential winner of the race.

 

The battle between Kudus and Yates could be a very close one and based on his performance in Pais Vasco, one could be tempted to put Australian on top of our list of favourites. When we haven't done so, it is mainly based on the nature of the Elmali finish which suits the pure climber Kudus a bit better. If Yates can stay close to him on the third stage, however, he should have the upper hand three days later.

 

Cannondale field a young team for the race and they have included one of the greatest Italian climbing talents on their roster. It may be hard to see on the results sheets as he has mostly been working as a domestique but Davide Formolo has been outstanding this year. In the hilly Italian one-day races at the beginning of the season, he was one of the very best climbers but the combination of team obligations and courses that were not hard enough, made it impossible for him to make a result.

 

He was set to get his own chance at the Settimana Coppi e Bartali but fell ill in the build-up to the race and missed 10 days of training. This week he made his return to competition when he did the first two stages of the Giro del Trentino and even though he is clearly not in the kind of form he was earlier this year, he performed solidly. He abandoned the race early to head to Turkey where he will get the chance to lead the team.

 

The Elmali finish should suit him perfectly but of course his recent illness makes his condition a bit doubtful. If he has recovered sufficiently and not lost too much of his form, however, this race is certainly one that the talented Italian can win.

 

Lampre-Merida have lined up a team of fast finishers that is mostly built to support Sacha Modolo in the sprints but the team also includes a GC rider. After several years of riding for smaller continental teams, the 26-year-old Croatian got his chance at the highest level when he joined Lampre-Merida for the 2013 season.

 

He failed to put his climbing skills to good use in the first part of the season and he struggled in his first grand tour at the Giro. However, he found better legs for the second part of the season and crowned it all with a win in the hilly Tre Valli Varesine, one of the biggest Italian one-day races.

 

This year he has had a much better start to his season and he seems to have improved a lot during his first professional year. He hasn't taken any major results but has been working hard for his team leaders in the hilly races. He arrives straight from the Ardennes classics where he showed solid condition by making it into the front group that hit the bottom of the Cauberg for the final time. Durasek is not very explosive but the long climb to Elmali should suit him well and it would be no surprise to see him feature near the top of the leader board.

 

 Last year we made Yoann Bagot the number two on our list of favourites and the strong Frenchman proved himself worthy of our confidence when he finished second behind Natnael Berhane. 12 months ago he entered the race on the back of a very solid start to his season but this year he has not been riding as well as he did back then.

 

However, his condition is on the rise and he performed well in the recent hilly French one-day races. He was also part of the strong breakaway that battled it out for the win in the very difficult final stage of the Volta a Catalunya, crossing the line in 5th.

 

There is no doubt that Bagot has made the Tour of Turkey one of his key objectives in the spring and on paper his Cofidis team is one of the strongest. However, Nicolas Edet, Rein  Taaramae and Christophe Le Mevel are all far from their best form and even though the team in principle has a four-pronged attack, it will probably all boil down to Bagot. The Frenchman is a great climber and even though Elmali may be a bit too long to suit him perfectly, he will surely be a contender.

 

Alexandr Dyachenko lines up as Astana leader as he aims at taking his second win in the race after having been promoted from 2nd to 1st after the disqualification of Ivailo Gabrovski in 2012. At his best, the Kazakh is a great climber but he is also one of the most inconsistent riders of the peloton whose form is always very hard to gauge.

 

This year he has had a very slow start to the season and when he last raced at the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he abandoned the race. In Catalunya and Langkawi he was far off the pace and he hasn't shown anything so far. However, he is clearly on an upwards trajectory and in the past his condition has often come out of nowhere. Now he will suddenly find himself in a leadership role and there is little doubt that he has prepared to be ready for the Turkish race. At this time 12 months ago, he proved his excellent climbing skills when he blasted up the Trentino mountains and if he can rediscover those sensations, he is one of the big favourites.

 

Dyachenko may be inconsistent but the king of inconsistency is surely Juan Jose Cobo. At his best, the Spaniard is flying as is evidenced by his fabulous 2011 Vuelta win but since then he has not shown any kind of form. In his two years at Movistar, his results were pretty lacklustre and so his contract wasn't extended.

 

No one was brave enough to offer Cobo a WorldTour contract, knowing that there was a big risk that it would be another year to forget for the talented Spaniard and so he found a home at the continental level with the Torku Sekerspor team. The local squad has been dragged through the mud twice in a row after producing surprise winners of their biggest home race before seeing both testing positive.

 

This year the team has taken a number of anti-doping initiatives to regain credibility and they have again received an invitation to their home race. This year they won't be led by a nobody as it will be a past grand tour winner who wears the number one dossard for the team. However, no one knows an awful lot about Cobo's condition as he hasn't done a single UCI race for his new team. Nonetheless, this race is the big highlight for him and his team and so it would be reasonable to suggest that he has tried to hit peak condition for the coming week of racing. As he hasn't shown any kind of form for more than two years and hasn't raced in 2014, it is hard to make him a favorite. At his best, however, he is the best rider in the race and so deserves the status as an outsider.

 

If Simon Yates fails to deliver on his promises, Orica-GreenEDGE can count on his twin brother Adam. The latter has always been a bit in the shadows of his brother who made it up through the ranks of the British National Academy while Adam was deemed unworthy of a spot in that programme. Instead, he proved his skills by riding at the domestic level in France and when he finished 2nd in last year's Tour de l'Avenir, he proved that he deserves a spot in the professional peloton.

 

He has much of the same explosive skills as his brother and has had a fine start to his professional career. He was 11th at the Tour de San Luis in January and proved himself at the WorldTour level when he took 22nd in Catalunya. Since then he has had a harder time though and he was far off the pace in both Pais Vasco and the hilly classics.

 

With Simon being the in-form rider of the pair, he is the obvious favourite on the Orica-GreenEDGE roster but no one can rule out Adam. After all, he has proved that he has the skills in the terrain that will determined this race and Orica-GreenEDGE could easily put both brothers in the top 10.

 

Kevin De Weert is one of the big question marks in this race. The Belgian suffered a horrific crash in the time trial at last year's Vuelta a Espana and at one point, his career was under threat. Luckily he made it back to the highest level but he has done very little racing so far, only lining up at three one-day races in his native Belgium. However, he showed solid condition in the Brabantse Pijl which is not an easy affair for a rider who has just come back from injury and he already seems to be at a competitive level. In 2011 he finished 12th in the Tour de France and so obviously has the climbing skills to win this race. It is very likely that this race comes a tad too early for him but he deserves the status as an outsider.

 

Originally Davide Rebellin was scheduled to do the Giro del Trentino but his CCC Polsat team changed their plans, feeling that their captain had a real chance of taking a top result in Turkey. Having narrowly missed the top 10 in the Amstel Gold Race and finished 7th at Brabantse Pijl, the veteran is obviously in great condition and he still has the level to mix it up with the very best.

 

Rebellin is still very consistent and an exceptional bike rider who is a perennial top 10 finisher in the hardest Italian one-day races. However, he has never been a rider for the really long climbs as his real strength are the short, punchy ascents. This has been put on show on a number of occasions over the last few years - most recently in the Tour de Pologne, Volta a Catalunya and Vuelta a Andalucia - and there is a big risk that Elmali will be too hard for him. This race, however, is at a lower level than most of the races he has done earlier this year and so he may be able to keep up with the best here. If he limits his losses on Elmali, he will be a danger man on the Selcuk climb.

 

Finally, we will point to Kevin Seeldraeyers. Last year the Belgian came back from injury to perform surprisingly well in this race when he finished 2nd on the queen stage. However, his lack of racing and the explosive nature of the Selcuk climb saw him drop to 11th overall but this year he will be back in a quest to improve.

 

After publicly criticizing Astana, he had to find a new team and was picked up by Wanty toward the end of 2013 as their captain for the stage races. However, he has had a very slow start to his season and has not shown any kind of form.

 

However, he has not done an awful lot of races that suit his skills as a pure climber and in last year's Tour of Austria he proved how strong he is when he reaches his top level. Nothing suggests that he will be firing on all cylinders but it would be natural for him to have made the Turkish race a target as he has a chance to win it. If he is close to the condition he had last summer, he will be very hard to beat in this race.

 

***** Merhawi Kudus

**** Simon Yates, Davide Formolo

*** Kristijan Durasek, Yoann Bagot, Alexandr Dyachenko

**Juan Jose Cobo, Adam Yates, Kevin De Weert, Davide Rebellin, Kevin Seeldraeyers

* Luis Leon Sanchez, Tomasz Marczynski, Petr Ignatenko, Heiner Parra, Pello Bilbao, Jai Crawford, Robbie Hucker, Petr Ignatenko, Adam Hansen, Cameron Wurf, Robinson Chalapud, Marc De Maar, Andrea Manfredi, Rein Taaramae, Linus Gerdemann, David de la Fuente