The spring classics season may be about to begin but that doesn't mean that the stage racing will be completely shelved. While the one-day specialists do the first battles of the cobbles, Catalonia will be the scene of the first fight between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador when they test themselves against each other in this week's Volta a Catalunya. After several years of suffering, the Spanish race could not have imagined a better turnaround as a start list featuring the top 4 from last year's Tour de France will make it probably the most competitive stage race before July.

 

Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico play a special dual role as they both serve as the final, crucial preparation for the classics specialists and the first big test of the stage race riders. After the end of the Italian race, however, the coming month has traditionally been almost entirely about the classics, with the one-day battles in Northern Europe taking all the spotlight.

 

That doesn't mean that the grand tour riders are doing nothing these days. Several stage races - highlighted by the WorldTour races Volta a Catalunya and Vuelta al Pais Vasco - take place in the southern part of the continent over the next few weeks and even though they are partly preparation for the Ardennes classics, they are much more than that. For those of the grand tour riders that avoid the one-day races entirely, they are some of their biggest objectives in the early part of the season and usually the scene of some of the most exciting battles between the stars that will battle it out in the three-week races later in the year.

 

Traditionally they may have struggled a bit for attention at a time where the classics are on the minds of most fans but this year the Volta a Catalunya will buck the trend. The Spanish race has had several difficult years but is now going through its revival and the 2014 edition promises to be the most exciting in recent history. With Alberto Contador having returned to form and Chris Froome set to continue his stunning domination of the stage races, the two best grand tour riders are set to face each other in their only battle before June's Criterium du Dauphiné. That's a fight that is just as intriguing as the one Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen, and Peter Sagan will be engaged in on the Belgian cobbles and during the next week, Catalonia will be the centre of the cycling world.

 

The strong line-up marks a bit of a turnaround for the Spanish race. Held for the first time in 1911, it is actually the oldest professional race in the Iberian country and the fourth-oldest stage race in the world, only behind the Tour de France (1903), the Tour of Belgium (1908) and the Giro d'Italia (1909). Right since its early days, it has played an important role on the cycling calendar and played a big role in cycling's history. Although naturally dominated by Spanish winners, the race has always attracted the biggest international stars, and riders like Eddy Merckx, Jacques Anquetil, Felice Gimondi, Bernhard Thevenet, Francesco Moser, Sean Kelly, Robert Millar, Claudio Chiappucci, Laurent Jalabert, and Alex Zülle join the biggest Spanish riders on the list of winners.

 

The 2000s, however, have been a difficult time for one of the most historic races on the cycling calendar. The Volta a Catalunya was maybe the biggest loser with the introduction of the now defunct ProTour in 2005. Moved from its usual June spot, Spain's oldest stage race was held during the second week of the Giro and as a consequence it gained little public attention. Among the riders, it was mostly seen as a first race back after a short break in the lead up to the Tour and the biggest riders were rarely even close to their best form, meaning that the race winners were a bit down in the rider hierarchy.

 

With the Tour of California wishing to turn into a spring race, an opportunity arose to revive the struggling Spanish race. In 2010 the calendar was restructured, and the Catalan race has since been held in March as another opportunity for the strongest GC riders to make use of any early season peak of form. It has taken the place of the now defunct Setmana Catalana and later the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon which has been moved to an April date.

 

The effect on the race has been massive, and with the added bonus of important WorldTour points at hand, the race has since been able to line up a number of the sport's biggest names. While the month of May is usually a training period for the grand tour riders not doing the Giro, late March and early April is typical the time for the first peak condition for the Tour de France contenders. Even though it's always hard to find the right combination of the four early WorldTour stage races, Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico, Volta a Catalunya, and Vuelta al Pais Vasco, meaning that not all the biggest stars are present, the days when the race is mere Tour de France preparation are certainly over.

 

The race still finds itself in a difficult battle though. The week after Milan-Sanremo also offers high-level racing in Criterium International and Settimana Coppi e Bartali. With the former being organized by Tour organizers ASO, the teams have a special incentive to attend the French race and last year the Tour start in Corsica - the new venue for the short French race - meant that most of the Tour contenders, including Froome and Contador, preferred to head to France.

 

With that incentive now gone, the Catalonian race is certainly the big winner of this year's battle and after Froome was forced out of Tirreno, the organizers can probably offer the best start list of all the early-season stage races. With Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez also on the start line, the race has attracted the entire  top four from last year's Tour de France, and one can throw in a number of other great stage race riders, spearheaded by Froome's loyal domestique Richie Porte.

 

Last year's race was expected to be an exciting battle between the likes of Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim  Rodriguez, Nairo Quintana, and Bradley Wiggins but turned out to produce a surprising winner. Valverde had stamped his authority on the race by taking the leader's jersey on the first mountain stage - won by his teammate Quintana - but things took a dramatic turnaround 24 hours later when the race leader crashed out of the race in the queen stage. At that point, a very strong break was up the road and as the crash briefly interrupted the chase, the peloton never managed to catch Dan Martin who took over the lead. The Irishman defended himself well in the final rolling stages and took what was then the biggest win of his career ahead of Rodriguez and Michele Scarponi who used a brave attack on the final day to move ahead of Quintana and Wiggins in the final overall standings. Martin, Rodriguez, and Quintana will all be back for the 2014 edition while Scarponi, Wiggins, and Valverde have decided to not include the race in their race programme, with Wiggins changing his mind at the last minute.

 

The course

The Volta a Catalunya has always been a mixed affair and the terrain makes it possible for the organizers to vary its toughness quite a bit. In the past, it has included short, flat prologues and mountain time trials but in the last three editions, there has been no timed event in the Catalonian race.

 

The 2008 and 2010 editions also stand out as being rather easy as they featured no big summit finish, meaning that the race was mostly decided in a pair of rolling stages. In the last few years, the race seems to have found a rather fixed format, with no time trials, one or two major summit finishes in the Pyrenees at the mid-point of the race, and several rolling stages. This has made the race one for the pure climbers and in fact it is probably the WorldTour stage race that is best suited to this group of riders.

 

One thing is unavoidable: there is no incentive for the pure sprinters to travel to Catalonia. The terrain is very hilly and while not many stages take place in the high mountains, there are no completely flat stages either. Many of the stages are often decided in sprints but it requires a good set of climbing legs to still be in contention in the final dash to the line. It is no surprise that last year's race was a treat for Gianni Meersman and as this year's edition is very similar to the previous one, the Meersman type of riders will again find plenty of opportunities during the 7-day race.

 

Stage 1:

For the third year in a row, the race kicks off on the Mediterranean coast in the city of Calella which again hosts both the start and the finish of the opening stage. Those three stages have been different but all had the same finish, meaning that the riders should know what to expect from the opening day of the race.

 

At 169.7km, this year's first stage is the longest of the trio. From the start, the riders follow the flat coastal road to Mataro where they leave the coast to return back to the start in Calella by going up and down a small uncategorized climb. Back in the starting city, the riders will do the first intermediate sprint after 57.3km of racing.

 

From there they continue along the coastal road before turning inlands along flat roads to the city of Hostalric that is the site of the final intermediate sprint after 80.9km of racing. This signals the end of the flat part of the stage as the riders leave the valley to head up the category 3 Alt de Montsoriu (1,9km, 6.0%, max. 7.0%). Having returned to the valley via a partly technical descent, they again turn right to head up the main challenge of the day, the category 1 Alt de Montseny (6.0km, 5.6%, max. 8.0%) whose top comes 41.7km from the finish.

 

The climb is followed by a descent back to the valley road and a short section of slightly rising roads before the riders reach the final that is unchanged compared to the last two years. It consists of the category 3 climb Alt de Collsacreu (9.3km, 3.0%, max. 6.0%) whose top comes 18.5km from the finish. Those final kilometres consist of a partly technical descent - which was also tackled in the early part of the race - back to the coastal road where the riders turn left to head along flat roads for the final 8km back to the finish in Callella. There is a slight rise 5.5km from the finish but otherwise the finale is uncomplicated. The riders turn right in a roundabout 2.2km from the finish and from there it is straight and flat all the way to the finish.

 

While the finale is unchanged, the first part of the stage seems to be a bit harder than it has been in the past two years. This may make things a bit more difficult for the sprinters but history proves that the mellow gradients of the final climb are not too tough for the fast finishers. This means that a bunch sprint is the most likely outcome but the riders need to stay aware. In 2012, they failed to catch the early breakaway which allowed Michael Albasini to take a solo win that set him up for his final overall victory. One year ago all was set for a bunch sprint when Sky split things on the final descent, with Bradley Wiggins, Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Michele Scarponi, and Daniel Martin being some of the 13 riders that arrived 28 seconds earlier than the peloton. Gianni Meersman had made the split and the Belgian had no trouble taking the first of two stage wins in the sprint.

 

 

Stage 2:

For the third year in a row, the city of Girona which is the base for a host of professional riders, will play a prominent role for the second stage. While it served as both start and finishing city two years ago, it was the point of departure in 2013. This year the riders will take off from Mataro and finish their day's work 168km later in the cycling hotbed a few kilometres from the Mediterranean coast.

 

Compared to the 2012 finish in Girona, however, this stage is a much easier affair that again seems to be one for the few attending sprinters. The start, however, is a tough one. From the coastal city of Mataro, the riders head straight into the hills when they go up the category 3 Alt de Can Bordoi (2.8km, 5.3%, max. 7%) whose top comes at the 12.5km mark. The descent leads back to the valley road and the city of Hostalric which the riders will also have passed on the opening day.

 

From there the riders follow the valley road until they go up the category 2 Alt de Santa Pelaia (5.9km, 4.0%, max. 6%). At the top, 84.3km remain and they start off by a fast descent back to the valley and a long flat stretch, with the first intermediate sprint coming 50.3km from the finish.

 

The riders will now go up a long gradual uphill drag, passing last year's finishing city of Banyoles, turn around, and pass straight through that city for the final intermediate sprint 21.7km from the finish. They will now head down the same road they have gone up back to the main valley road where they will head towards Girona.

 

The final part of the stage is mostly slightly descending but with 8.7km to go, the riders go up a 2.6km hill with an average gradient of 2.7%. The final 6.1km consist of a descent followed by 2.7 flat kilometres at the end that start when the riders turn right in a roundabout. From there, the road is winding and punctuated by three roundabouts 1.7, 1.1 and 0.4km from the line.

 

As all sprinters in this race are all solid climbers, they won't have any problems overcoming the rather easy ascents in this stage and so all is set for another sprint finish. This will make it a much different affair compared to the 2012 finish in Girona where Michael Albasini took his second stage win in a row by winning a 31-rider sprint after having survived a tough climb near the end.

 

 

Stage 3:

After two days for the sprinters, it is time to go into the high mountains for the first of two consecutive summit finishes that is likely to decide the final classification. The 162.9km stage starts in Banyoles and ends at the top of the category 1 La Molina climb at 1725m above sea level after a big day of climbing.

 

The first part of the stage consists of a long westerly run as the riders turn their back to the Mediterranean coast and its rolling terrain to head into the high mountains. The first 31.6km are all slightly uphill as the riders get closer to the serious climbing but the hostilities commence in earnest when they take on the category 1 Alt de Coubet (10km, 5.5%, max. 10%).

 

From the top, the riders follow a rather easy and gradual descent back to the valley and the city of Ripoll where they continue their westerly journey along slightly ascending roads. The truly brutal part of the stage starts just after the city of Gombren when 84.9km still remain.

 

The riders now go up the first HC climb of the race, the Alt de la Creueta (21km, 4.5%, max. 9%). The top comes 63.9km from the finish and the riders will now do a short descent before going up to La Molina. Here they pass the finish line from the opposite direction to start the long descent to the city of Alp.

 

The riders will now do a small flat loop in the valley, contesting the intermediate sprints 35.3km and 22.6km from the finish. Having returned to Alp, they will head back up the road they had previously been descending to do the category 1 climb up to the finish in La Molina. The actual climb is only 5.3km long with an average gradient of 5.3% and maximum ramps 8% but it is uphill for the final 11.9km of the stage.

 

The stage may be a tough one but the final climb is not overly difficult and even though we are guaranteed to see time gaps open up in the first big battle between the GC contenders, time differences will be small and the stage could be decided in a sprint between the best climbers in the race. La Molina hosted a stage finish in the 2001 Vuelta where Santiago Blanco won from a breakaway while only Jose Maria Jimenez managed to escape on the final ascent, finishing 4 seconds ahead of an 18-rider group that contained all the main contenders.

 

 

Stage 4:

The riders will be left with tired legs after the previous day's climbing but things will only get tougher for Thursday which is the day of the queen stage. The 166.4km stage starts in Alp at the bottom of yesterday's finishing climb and ends at the top of the HC category climb to Alp-Vallter 2000-Setcases that also hosted a finish of last year's race.

 

The race will be off to a brutal start as the riders head directly up the category 1 Collada de Tosses (19.6km, 3.0%, max. 6%) which runs parallel with yesterday's finishing climb. Although being a long one, the climb is rather easy but should be the perfect scene for an early attack, making it very hard for the leading team to control things.

 

From the top, the riders take on a very long, technical descent, passing through the city of Planoles before reaching Ripoll down in the valley. There they turn left to go up the category 2 Alt de Canes (16km, 3.0%, max. 6%) that is more of a long, gradual uphill section than a real climb.

 

From the top 91.2km remain and they start off with a fast descent that only gets a bit technical near the bottom. Down in the valley, the riders follow slightly ascending  roads for a few kilometres, passing the first intermediate sprint 71.3km from the line.

 

A little later, the riders go up the category 1 Alt de Oix (7.7km, 5.3%, max. 10%) which is followed by a fast and technical  decent down to the city of Beget. This ends the descending part of the stage and the final 41.4km are either uphill or flat.

 

First up is the category 1 Alt de Rocabruna (7.5km, 5.6%, max. 14%) which isn't followed by any descent but just several kilometres of long, flat roads. The riders will do the final intermediate sprint 19.8km from the finish and after a short stretch of slightly ascending roads, it is time for the HC climb to the finish (12km, 7.8%, max. 12%).

 

The final climb is much harder than the easy one that ended the previous stage and we can expect to see much bigger time differences as the riders head up the many hairpin bends to the finish 2200m above sea level. The climb should be hard enough to make a selection but last year a fierce headwind made it difficult to do some real damage. The race only exploded in the final kilometre when Nairo Quintana made a fierce acceleration to take a solo win while his teammate Alejandro Valverde beat Joaquim Rodriguez and Bradley Wiggins in a sprint 6 seconds later. 9 riders, however, finished within 10 seconds of the race winner but if the wind is less fierce in this year's stage, it will be a deserved scene for the crowning of the likely winner of the Volta a Catalunya.

 

 

Stage 5:

After two big mountain days, it is time for two easier days as the GC will probably have been decided at this point. First up is the longest stage of the entire race as the riders will use the 218.2km run from Campodron at the bottom of the finishing climb of the previous day to get back to the Mediterranean coast and a finish in Valls.

 

The stage mainly consists of a long gradual, downhill run back to the sea as the riders take off in a westerly direction. The first part is downhill but then it is time for a rolling section that has very few metres of flat roads but no major climbing or descending either. The riders will contest the first intermediate sprint 111.5km from the finish and it is followed by a gradual uphill section.

 

The westerly journey has now ended as the riders turn south to head back to the coast, meaning that they will now tackle a long descent. At the bottom, they head along dead flat valley roads and pass the site of the final intermediate sprint 76.1km from the line.

 

The flat roads are followed by a gradual uphill stretch to the city of Belltall and then the riders do the final part of the descent back to the coast. Instead of following the flat roads to Valls, however, the organizers have decided to follow a more straight line to the finish that send them up the only major climb of the day. The category 2 Alt de Lilla (6.3km, 4.8%, max. 7%) is a nasty little sting in the tail after a very long day in the saddle.

 

From the top, only 8.9km remain and they are almost all downhill, with the riders reaching the bottom just 3.4km from the line. However, the downhill is mostly on a long straight road that doesn't offer any real technical difficulties and it will be much easier for the peloton than for any escapees to keep a high pace in this section.

 

The stage ends on flat roads but the finish is a bit technical. 1.2km from the line, the riders pass straight through a roundabout  and then turn right in another one 400m down the road. It is immediately followed by a right-hand turn that leads to the final 90-degree left-hand turn just 400m from the line.

 

The final climb is not hard enough to make any differences between the overall contenders and even though we are likely to see some late attacks that could probably challenge some of the fast finishers, the easy descent means that the most likely outcome is another sprint finish. The finish is identical to the one used for last year's penultimate stage where Simon Gerrans beat Gianni Meersman in a sprint finish.

 

 

Stage 6:

The weekend kicks off with the stage that seems to be the easiest of the entire race. The 172km stage from El Vendrell to Vilanova i al Geltru only has one small category 3 climb at the midpoint and with the final half being mostly downhill, it is hard to imagine that the sprinters will let this one slip away.

 

From the start in El Vendrell on the Mediterranean coast, the riders follow the flat coastal road for the first 12.9km until they reach Torredembarra. They now turn right to head inlands, contesting the first intermediate sprint after 36.2km of racing.

 

The long gradual uphill continues - only interspersed with a short descent near the top - all the way to shortly before the city of Pontons which comes with 78.4km to go. It is now time for fast descent until the riders hit the bottom of the only categorized climb, the category 3 Alt de Font-Rubi (5.7km, 3.8%, max. 6%).

 

From the op, 58.6km remain and they consist of a long gradual downhill run back to the coast, with a flat section coming midway down the descent. The final intermediate sprint precedes the final descending part and comes 26.4km from the finish. The descent is mostly non-technical but near the end, a few corners make things a bit more complicated.

 

The descending continues all the way back to the finish in the coastal town of Vilanova i al Geltru as the riders do a clockwise loop around the city before getting down to the coast and a finish along the seafront. The finale is completely non-technical as the riders travel along a very wide boulevard for the last several kilometres. They will turn right in a roundabout 2.2km from the finish and from there they go straight through another four roundabouts until they arrive at the finish on the big boulevard along the coast

 

The stage is the only one to have the design of a completely traditional race for the sprinters and it is no wonder that the two most recent stage winners in the finishing city are Mario Cipollini and Erik Zabel who won stages in the 1999 and 2000 editions respectively. In 2010, the city hosted a finish of a Vuelta stage that went up the brutally steep Alt de Rat Penat and was won from a breakaway by Imanol Erviti.

 

 

Stage 7:

Last year the race ended with a stage in Barcelona that included several laps of a circuit that included the famous Montjuic climb and it produced some very exciting racing as Michele Scarponi used the ascent to attack and move himself up into 3rd on the final day of racing. The organizers were so pleased with that stage that the race will again end on the very same circuit in the Catalonian capital.

 

The final day sees the riders tackle a short 120.7km stage but unlike last year, the race will both start and finish in Barcelona. From the start at the L'Hospitalet de Llobregat on the western outskirts of the city, the riders head long flat roads in a northwesterly direction and pass the first intermediate sprint after just 9.2km. Then they tackle the category 3 Alt de Castellbisbal (4.4km, 3.5%, max. 5%) whose top comes at the 21.5km mark.

 

After the passage of the climb, the riders turn around to head down the descent back towards the city but they will do a small loop to tackle the category 3 Alt de Corbera (3.9km, 4.7%, max. 8%). It is followed by a fast descent that leads back to the Barcelona suburb of San Vincenc del Horts after 41.8km of racing.

 

The riders now travel through the city along flat roads and pass the site of the second intermediate sprint with 62.9km to go. 13.7km further down the road, they pass the finish line in the city centre for the first time and now it is time for the real action to start.

 

The race ends with 8 laps of the 6.15km finishing circuit in the Montjuic park and it is a tricky affair. From the line, it goes almost straight up the category 3 Alt Montjuic (2km, 5.7%, max. 8%) that is well-known for most bike riders. At the top, 3.65km remain to get back to the line and they are almost entirely downhill. The descent is not overly technical and follows a winding road. The riders make a sharp turn 2.25km from the line and go straight through a roundabout around the flamme rouge and then the road only has some sweeping turns as it continues its way back down to the finish.

 

The Montjuic is an iconic climb in cycling. In 2009, Thor Hushovd won a tough uphill sprint on its slopes in the Tour de France while the climb last featured in  a grand tour in the 2012 Vuelta. On that occasion, Philippe Gilbert and Joaquim Rodriguez escaped and held the peloton at bay on the descent, with Gilbert taking an easy sprint win, his first victory for BMC. When the final stage finished on the same circuit 12 months ago, Thomas De Gendt and David Lopez attacked 22km from the finish to join the early breakaway and after dropping their companions, they were joined from behind by Michele Scarponi and Robert Kiserlovski. With Scarponi riding for GC, the quartet stayed away to the finish where De Gendt won the sprint to take his only victory of 2013 while Scarponi moved up into 3rd on GC. Behind, a 57-rider group sprinted for the minor placings. Joaquim Rodriguez tried to attack overall leader Dan Martin on the final laps but the climb was not hard enough to make a difference.

 

This sets the scene for what we can expect from this year's final stage. The most likely outcome is a sprint from a reduced peloton but we can expect a very attacking race which will be very difficult to control for both the sprint and GC teams. The climb is not hard enough to make a difference between the GC riders but by using tactical astuteness and strong legs, Scarponi proved that the circuit is difficult enough to create a surprise at the very end of the race.

 

 

The weather

The riders had excellent conditions for Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico and they will be hopeful to enjoy similarly great weather in Catalonia. For the organizers, it will be important as well as it is risky business to send the riders up to more than 2000m of altitude at this early time of the year. Two years ago the queen stage was held under tumultuous circumstances, with the finish line being relocated midway through the race and all time gaps being neutralized, and everybody will be hopeful to avoid a repeat scenario.

 

The race should take off in nice conditions as the riders can expect a cloudy day for the opening stage and 15-degree temperatures. A moderate wind will be blowing from a southeasterly direction, meaning that the riders will have a headwind when they head back to the finish in Calella.

 

Rain is forecasted for Tuesday's stage to Girona that is set to take place in 15-degree temperatures and with a light wind coming from a southeasterly direction. Unfortunately, Wednesday's big mountain stage is in danger as snow is expected to fall overnight in the city of Ripoll at the bottom of the final climb. The temperatures will only be 5 degrees on race day, meaning that there will be sub-zero temperatures on the climb. The wind will be light from a northern direction.

 

Things won't improve for Thursday's queen stage as snow is expected on the fourth day. At the bottom of the final climb, the temperatures are only expected to reach 2 degrees, with a light wind blowing from a northwesterly direction. Unfortunately, this puts both mountain stages in danger.

 

The riders can expect better weather conditions when they return to the coast. Friday's stage is expected to take place under a cloudy sky and a temperature of 13 degrees. There will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction. Saturday is set to be another rainy day with 15-degree temperatures and a strong wind from an easterly direction while the race should end in Barcelona in dry conditions, under a cloudy sky, with a temperature of 16 degrees and a rather strong wind from an easterly direction.

 

The favourites

Last year the Volta a Catalunya may have struggled a bit for attention due to the desire of many riders to test the Corsican roads in the Criterium International but this year the organizers have no reason to regret the line-up. In fact, the race shapes up to be the most competitive race among the one-week WorldTour races as it has attracted what is almost an all-inclusive line-up of grand tour contenders. Only a few major names like Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, and Roman Kreuziger are missing from what is otherwise a list that contains almost any other potential podium finisher in a grand tour. It is very rare for the top 4 from last year's Tour de France to line up in the same race months before July.

 

Keeping with recent tradition, the lack of a time trial and two major summit finishes mean that the race is one for the climbers and probably the WorldTour race that suits the real mountain specialists the most. While they will relish the fact that the race is purely decided in the mountains, however, the major mountains in Catalonia are also not very hard. The climbs on stages 3 and 4 are long, gradual ascents with rather mellow gradients and this means that the time differences between the best riders may not be very big.

 

Unlike something unexpected happens - like on the final descent in the first stage of last year's race - it will all come down to the two mountain stages while it will be all about staying safe in the five remaining stages. Stage 3 is unlikely to do too much damage but the finishing climb on stage 4 is a hard one and the result of that stage is very likely to mirror the final overall standings closely. Usually, the race hasn't had bonus seconds but this year organizers have decided to change the rules. There will be 10, 6 and 4 seconds on the line in all stages except stages 3 and 4 and there will be 3, 2, and 1 second in the special Miguel Poblet sprint that is included in each stage. As the GC riders are unlikely to contend for the bonus seconds in the 5 flatter stages, it will all come down to climbing prowess - mainly on stage 4.

 

What makes this year's race really exciting is the fact that it will be a dress rehearsal for July's big battle between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. It will be the only chance before June's Criterium du Dauphiné to gauge the two major favourites for the Tour de France against each other. If one had asked us in February, we wouldn't hesitate a moment to declare Froome the guaranteed winner of this race but recent developments have made the game much more open.

 

First of all, Froome has had an injury setback and even though he has been back in training for more than a week in Southern France, there is no doubt that this will have an impact on his level of form. The lack of a time trial is a clear disadvantage for the Tour champion and he may be a little more doubtful when he takes to the start line than he usually is. At the same time, Contador's stunning performance in Tirreno-Adriatico signals that he is not too far away from the level of his heydays and there is no doubt that the multiple grand tour winner is a much harder nut to crack than he was at this time one year ago.

 

Despite the uncertainty over his condition, Froome remains the main favourite to win this race. The Brit may have lost a few days of training and may not have done a race for more than a month but his outstanding condition in the Tour of Oman suggested that he was already at a fairly advanced level. As his 2013 performances proved, he is not the kind of rider that needs an awful lot of racing to reach his best condition and his training will have been enough to keep him at a high level. Tirreno-Adriatico was probably his biggest goal of the early season and as his withdrawal was a rather late one, there is no doubt that he was ready to go when he was hit by his setback.

 

What makes Froome the favourite in the race is his performances in last year's races and in Oman. In last year's spring races, he proved that he was not only the strongest rider but that he was far ahead of his rivals. He underlined that status in Oman where he crushed the opposition on the Green Mountain. That climb may be very steep but at only 5.7km, it is also a very short one. In less than 2km, he put almost half a minute into his nearest rival and he was even up against an almost all-inclusive line-up of grand tour stars. Despite his late attack, only 7 riders finished within a minute of his time. At the same time, Contador was winning in Algarve but only managed to hold off Rui Costa and Michal Kwiatkowski by seconds on the Alto do Malhao whose gradient are only slightly easier than the ones of the Green Mountain.

 

Froome will be supported by a very strong team that closely mirrors the one he will have at his disposal in July. Mikel Nieve and Richie Porte both showed great condition in Tirreno while David Lopez did a great job for Geraint Thomas in Paris-Nice. That kind of firepower will allow the British team to dominate the mountain stages and Froome will have the support needed to form the race in the way he wants it. Of course he would have preferred the inclusion of a time trial and the final climbs may not be overly steep but Froome has proved time after time that he has the fierce accelerations to make a difference even when the going is not overly tough.

 

The rider who has the biggest chance of beating Froome, is of course Contador. In Tirreno, he indicated that he is back to his best and the way he rode away from everyone else on the Passo Lanciano showed that he was not only better than his rivals: he was by far the strongest rider in the race. If this race had contained a time trial, the outcome would have been a foregone conclusion but with just two summit finishes, Contador has a great chance of beating Froome.

 

Contador went very deep in last week's Tirreno which was his main goal of the spring season and even though he has an excellent recovery, there is a chance that he won't be at the same exceptional level as he was one week ago. On the other hand, the Spaniard is a fierce competitor who is famously known for his great consistency and competitive mindset and he will be extra fired up by the presence of Froome.

 

Contador is known for his stinging attacks and as he proved in stage four of Tirreno, he has a rather powerful sprint at the top of a climb. If Froome and Contador are equally matched on these ascents which are not too tough, it may all come down to accelerations and sprints within the final kilometre of the stage. Even though Contador has the ability to make hard attacks, his sprinting ability may not be quite at the level of Froome's who proved on La Planche des Belles Filles in the 2012 Tour de France and Pena Cabarga in the 2011 Vuelta that he is rather explosive when it comes to a sprint at the end of a climb. This could make all the difference in a race that is set to be decided by tiny margins and speaks against a Contador win.

 

Prior to Tirreno, Nairo Quintana had not shown any kind of form since winning the Tour de San Luis. After the Argentinean race, he admitted that he was maybe a bit too good too early and that it was necessary for him to slow down a bit. He did so by putting in some rather poor performances in his first European races and didn't seem to confident ahead of Tirreno.

 

When the race kicked off, however, he showed what a classy and talented athlete he is. The Colombian doesn't need an awful lot of racing or training to get back to a competitive level and in the Italian race he was clearly runner-up in the climbing hierarchy. That race, however, also revealed that at the moment his level is still clearly below Contador's.

 

That's no surprise though. Quintana is building for the Giro and can't allow himself to be at the same level as Contador and Froome at this moment. The way he faded on the Muro Guardiagrele was a clear sign that while his natural abilities allowed him to shine on the climbs, his form base is not yet where it needs to be.

 

Nonetheless, he is the rider who has the biggest chance of challenging Froome and Contador in Catalonia. With a week of solid racing in his legs, his level will only have improved and he is probably the only rider in the race who has the natural ability to match Froome and Contador. With no time trial and some high-altitude climbing with long ascents, the course suits him really well and he will be backed by a powerful team with Igor Anton and Jose Herrada being his two key lieutenants. We would be surprised if his level already allows him to win a race like this but no one can ever rule out Quintana.

 

One of the big question marks in this race is Joaquim Rodriguez. To stay fresh for his main goals in the Ardennes and the Giro which come in quick succession, the Spaniard has chosen to scale down his early-season racing and for the first time in years, he hasn't done either Paris-Nice or Tirreno-Adriatico. In fact, his only races in the first part of the season were the Tour de San Luis, the Dubai Tour, and the Tour of Oman and so he hasn't been in competitive action for more than a month.

 

Instead, he has been preparing himself by training on Mount Teide and it would be a surprise if he is not at a high level. In the early part of the season, he followed his usual pattern and started to show signs on form in Oman. He usually reaches a competitive level by the middle of March in the Tirreno while he has been fighting for the win in Catalunya whenever he has done that race.

 

With no time trial, the course suits him really well and he will have a good shot at a stage win on stage 3 whose easy gradients mean that it may all come down to a sprint between the best climbers in the race. If that is the case, his trademark accelerations in the final 500m of a climb will make him a danger man. It will then be all about keeping up with the best in Thursday's fourth stage and that will be a tougher task. Rodriguez is a great climber but his top level doesn't allow him to compete with the likes of Froome and Contador. At the same time, the long, gradual climbs don't suit him too well. With in-form Daniel Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso at his side, his team is probably only matched by Sky when it comes to firepower. There is no doubt that Rodriguez will be in podium contention but it will be hard for him to win in this high-level field.

One week ago Carlos Betancur took the biggest win of his career when he triumphed in Paris-Nice. That win was taken by virtue of his excellent puncheur skills on the short, steep ascents on the very unusual course for the French race. The Volta a Catalunya's long climbs require completely different skills but in last year's Giro, Betancur proved that he is one of the very best even on the longer ascents.

 

In Paris-Nice, however, it was evident that Betancur is still not in his best condition. He may have won the race but he was certainly not dominant on the climbs. At the same time, he is reportedly still 3-4kg overweight and that will be costly in the harder Catalonian terrain. By the time we reach July, we have no doubt that Betancur will be flying up the long climbs but at this time of the year it may be a bit harder. His explosive skills make him one of the clear favourites on stage 3 but the final climb of stage 4 may turn out to be a bit too hard at this time of the year. Nonetheless, Betancur is such a classy athlete that we won't be surprised to see him finish in the top 5.

 

Rigoberto Uran was riding really well in the Tour of Oman where he finished 3rd behind Froome and van Garderen. The Colombian went on to do an excellent domestique job in the Strade Bianche, and in Tirreno he again had to settle for that role when Michal Kwiatkowski took the lead. He did a lot of work for his teammate on both mountain stages and so the results tell nothing about his form. In Catalonia, he is the sole leader of the team and with no time trial, he finds an excellent course for him. With his punchy finish, he will be a contender on stage 3 and if he still has the legs he had in Oman, he will not be too far behind on stage 4 either. The level in this race is extremely high and Uran won't come out as the overall winner but he shouldn't be too far behind.

 

We have always believed that Domenico Pozzovivo is going to have a great season and the early part of the year indicates that we may be right. The tiny Italian proved his excellent condition when he dropped Alejandro Valverde on the steepest slopes in the Roma Maxima - which is certainly no mean feat these days - and he went on to perform solidly in the Tirreno-Adriatico where he finished 6th overall. He is clearly riding excellently at the moment and will relish the absence of a time trial but he may struggle a bit on the Catalonian climbs. Pozzovivo mostly excels on short, very steep climbs while he struggles when the climbs are too long. In Catalonia, he will find long climbs with mellow gradients and his performance in stage 4 of Tirreno proved that those are not his favourite conditions. It will be hard for him to finish on the podium but with his current condition a top 5 is within reach.

 

Richie Porte won't get much of a chance to play his own card in this race as he is here with a dual purpose. First of all he wants to build on his form for the Giro. Secondly, this will be his only chance to ride with Froome before the duo is set to combine forces again at this year's Tour de France. The Australian will be the final rider ahead of Froome in the famous Sky train and he will be at the race in a domestique role.

 

If anything happens to Froome, however, Porte will be ready to step up. After his poor showing in Vuelta a Andalucia where he finished 2nd but was far from his usual level, he was riding really well in Tirreno until illness took him out of the race. The Australian was the rider to blow the race to pieces in the headwind in Saturday's big mountain stage but he lacked the punch to match the late accelerations from Contador and Quintana. That he is riding so well in a headwind and on a climb that was rather easy proves that he is not too far from the level that allowed him to shine in last year's Tour de France where he could potentially have finished 2nd if it wasn't for his bad day in the Pyrenees.

 

Even if nothing happens to Froome, Porte may have a shot at victory. In the Tour of Oman, Sky tried a different tactic than their usual monotonous riding when they sent lieutenant Sergio Henao up the road. The team may be keen to continue that kind of experiments ahead of the Tour de France and this could free Porte to give it a go earlier on the climbs. Few riders know how to ride a hard pace up a climb like Porte and if he slips up the road, he will be hard to catch back.

 

Tejay van Garderen is one of the big question marks in this race. The American was riding exceptionally well in the Tour of Oman and was looking forward to test his condition further in Paris-Nice but illness forced him out of the race already on the opening day. His health issues, however, only saw him miss the race and one day of training and it won't have been too much of a setback.

 

Usually, we would never pick van Garderen as a favourite on this type of course as his main strength is his time trialing skills and certainly not his climbing. In fact, he has always struggled a bit on the longer climbs as he has had a tendency to go into the red a bit too early. However, he has clearly learnt a lesson and in Oman he rode a very wise race to keep his own tempo that allowed him to finish 2nd behind Froome. This proved his words of having had an excellent off-season true and if he has the same legs he had in the Middle East, he may shine on a course that doesn't suit him too well.

 

On paper, he is here to support Samuel Sanchez but the Spaniard has not yet show his best form. Recently, he has completed a training camp in Italy but we doubt that he is fully ready to contend for the win yet. Hence, van Garderen could very well be the strongest BMC rider in the race.

 

Finally, the Trek team deserves a mention. In Tirreno-Adriatico, the team put both Robert Kiserlovski and Julian Arredondo in the top 10, with the latter even finishing an excellent 5th. With no time trials in this race, the in-form duo will look to continue their strong showing on a mountainous course that suits them well.

 

In Tirreno, Arredondo was the first rider from the team but the Colombian is a very explosive climber who struggles a bit on the longest ascents. Kiserlovski is in the opposite category and will find the Catalonian climbs more to his liking than the ones he found in Italy. It is no coincidence that Kiserlovski was the best of the duo on the fourth stage of Tirreno while Arredondo excelled on the steep Muro one day later. At his best, Kiserlovski is an excellent climber as he proved in last year's Vuelta where he did a fantastic support work for Chris Horner. At that point, he was probably one of the five best climbers in the race. This year he is building his form for the Vuelta but his performance in Tirreno proved that he is already riding really well. We certainly wouldn't be surprised if he improves on his result from the Italian race in Catalonia

 

***** Chris Froome

**** Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana

*** Joaquim Rodriguez, Carlos Betancur, Rigoberto Uran

**Domenico Pozzovivo, Richie Porte, Tejay van Garderen, Robert Kiserlovski

* Julian Arredondo, Giampaolo Caruso, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Navarro, Winner Anacona, Janier Acevedo, Tom Danielson, Wilco Kelderman, Romain Bardet, Fabio Aru