The Volta a Catalunya has drawn plenty of attention due to its fabulous line-up that includes the entire top 4 from last year's Tour de France. However, the GC favourites need to bide their time for a few days before they get the chance to show their cards and they have to stay away right from the beginning of the race. For the third year in a row, the race kicks off with a lumpy affair around Calella and history proves that surprises may be in store for the GC riders on a stage that should suit the riders who can both climb and sprint. Starting at 15.15. CET you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The course

For the third year in a row, the race kicks off on the Mediterranean coast in the city of Calella which again hosts both the start and the finish of the opening stage. Those three stages have been different but all had the same finish, meaning that the riders should know what to expect from the opening day of the race.

 

At 169.7km, this year's first stage is the longest of the trio. From the start, the riders follow the flat coastal road to Mataro where they leave the coast to return back to the start in Calella by going up and down a small uncategorized climb. Back in the starting city, the riders will do the first intermediate sprint after 57.3km of racing.

 

From there they continue along the coastal road before turning inlands along flat roads to the city of Hostalric that is the site of the final intermediate sprint after 80.9km of racing. This signals the end of the flat part of the stage as the riders leave the valley to head up the category 3 Alt de Montsoriu (1,9km, 6.0%, max. 7.0%). Having returned to the valley via a partly technical descent, they again turn right to head up the main challenge of the day, the category 1 Alt de Montseny (6.0km, 5.6%, max. 8.0%) whose top comes 41.7km from the finish.

 

The climb is followed by a descent back to the valley road and a short section of slightly rising roads before the riders reach the final that is unchanged compared to the last two years. It consists of the category 3 climb Alt de Collsacreu (9.3km, 3.0%, max. 6.0%) whose top comes 18.5km from the finish. Those final kilometres consist of a partly technical descent - which was also tackled in the early part of the race - back to the coastal road where the riders turn left to head along flat roads for the final 8km back to the finish in Callella. There is a slight rise 5.5km from the finish but otherwise the finale is not too complicated. The riders follow a winding road until the flamme rouge where they do a very sharp right-hand turn. The road bends slightly to the left until they go straight through a roundabout 600m from the line  and then it is straight to the finish. Between the 3 and 2km to go marks, it is slightly uphill while the next 500m are downhill. The final 1500m are first up- and then downhill before the final 500m ascend with an average gradient of 2%.

 

While the finale is unchanged, the first part of the stage seems to be a bit harder than it has been in the past two years. This may make things a bit more difficult for the sprinters but history proves that the mellow gradients of the final climb are not too tough for the fast finishers. This means that a bunch sprint is the most likely outcome but the riders need to stay aware. In 2012, they failed to catch the early breakaway which allowed Michael Albasini to take a solo win that set him up for his final overall victory. One year ago all was set for a bunch sprint when Sky split things on the final descent, with Bradley Wiggins, Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Michele Scarponi, and Daniel Martin being some of the 13 riders that arrived 28 seconds earlier than the peloton. Gianni Meersman had made the split and the Belgian had no trouble taking the first of three stage wins in the sprint.

 

The weather

If the weather forecasts are right, the riders cannot expect to find the same splendid weather conditions in Catalonia as they did during Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. In fact, both big mountain stages are in danger as show is forecasted in the Pyrenees for both Wednesday and Thursday. However, the riders will be pleased to know that they will get the race off to a pleasant start as the opening day seems to be perfect for a bike race.

 

The riders will take off under beautiful sunshine but as the day goes on, it may turn into a rather cloudy affair as rain is expected in the evening. The temperatures will reach a pleasant 15 degrees by the time they reach the finish in Calella late in the afternoon.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southern direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind for the opening section along the coast and a tailwind when they head into the mountains later in the stage. From the top of the Alt de Montseny there will generally be a headwind until the riders reach the coast at the bottom of the descent from the Alt de Collsacreu. The riders will have a cross-tailwind for the final section along the coast. In the final kilometre, there will be a headwind until the riders turn into a crosswind for the final 600m.

 

The favourites

History proves that the first stage to Calella is a tricky affair and even though the expected outcome is some kind of sprint finish, the GC riders will have learnt from the past that they need to stay aware. This will make the stage a rather nervous affair and we can expect all the big GC team rally near the front for most of the stage.

 

The climbing in this stage should be too tough for your usual pure sprinter but they all know that Catalonia is not the place to be in the month of March. Hence, they have all decided against doing the Spanish stage race but this doesn't mean that the bunch doesn't contain a number of fast finishers. In fact, there are several riders in the peloton that have a fantastic chance of taking a very important win in a WorldTour race as they won't have to go up against the fastest finishers in the world. The week offers a number of opportunities and the first one comes today.

 

This means that there should be no chance that we should see a repeat of the 2012 scenario when the early break stayed away to give Michael Albasini both a stage win and a stint in the leader's jersey that ended up lasting for the entire race. That year there was no clear GC favourite, meaning that it was not obvious who should take control of the chase. With Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo both harbouring big ambitions for this race, the major teams will step in to assist the sprint teams if any help is needed to avoid any mishaps on the opening day.

 

In 2012 it was not obvious which sprint teams should take the responsibility but this year it should be more obvious. Giant-Shimano and Orica-GreenEDGE are mostly here to chase stage wins and they cannot allow themselves to let this opportunity pass by. Hence, they are likely to make sure that the early break is brought back in time for the final sprint and due to the difficult terrain, the break won't get too much leeway as the sprinters don't want to ride too hard up the climbs.

 

The opening stage seems to be harder than it has been in previous years. However, the main sprinters in this race can all climb and the difficulty of the ascents should not be too much for the fast finishers in this race. The Alt del Montseny could pose a challenge but the pace probably won't be too fast as it is hard to see any team with a genuine interest in making things hard. Near the top, the pace will go up as all the GC teams want to be well-positioned for the descent but we expect the sprinters to survive the challenge.

 

The Collsacreu is an easy climb and shouldn't pose too much of a problem either. We can expect the pace to be really high on this ascent though. Last year's splits on the descent will be a reminder for the GC riders and they all want to be on the front at the top of the climb. We can expect Sky to ride hard up the climb to keep Froome out of trouble but it probably won't do too much damage to the sprinters. As everybody will have learnt a lesson and there is a headwind in the final part of the stage, things are unlikely to split up as they did one year ago.

 

Hence, we expect the race to be decided in a sprint on the slightly uphill finishing straight and even though there aren't too many fast finishers in this race, there are certainly a number of great winner candidates.

 

The big favourite must be Luka Mezgec. The Slovenian had an outstanding first professional season that was capped with a big WorldTour win against some of the best sprinters in the world on the final stage of the Tour of Beijing. Despite being in the shadow of Marcel Kittel and John Degenkolb, he shone throughout most of the year after showing the first signs of promise in the Tour de Romandie where he took a number of fourth places. When Degenkolb left the Giro, he took over the role as lead sprinter and scored three third places in the Italian grand tour.

 

It is no wonder that Giant-Shimano have sent Mezgec to Catalonia. Compared to most sprinters, he is an excellent climbers and he really excels in hard races where most of the faster finishers have been left behind. He proved that in both the Giro and in Romandie and this race seems tailor-made for him.

 

Mezgec had a slow start to the season as he was taken down by illness in the Vuelta a Andalucia and this caused him to do some below-par sprints in the Three Days of West-Flanders. However, he has now returned to form as evidenced by his win in the Handzame Classic last Friday. In that race, he beat one of the fastest sprinters in the world, Theo Bos, who openly admitted that Mezgec had been the fastest on the day. Having shown that kind of form, he will be the man to beat - even if he cannot count on any riders from the famous Giant-Shimano lead-out train.

 

Mezgec will be up against an Orica-GreenEDGE team that have a clear eye on the sprint stages in this race. They have brought in an in-form Leigh Howard who excelled in Thursday's GP Nobili. When the peloton was whittled down to just 19 riders on the main climb, Howard was still there as the only Orica rider, indicating that he is climbing really well at the moment.

 

He may only have sprinted to 5th in that race but he hit the front too early and he showed in Oman that he is up there with the best when he twice finished 2nd in a high-level field. With Brett Lancaster at his side, he has one of the best lead-out men in the business but it requires Lancaster to have recovered from today's Milan-Sanremo to make it possible to survive the climbs. Even without Lancaster, however, Howard should be one of the fastest riders in this race and even though he is not keen on uphill sprints, he should be up there.

 

If Howard doesn't like uphill sprints, it is the opposite for Samuel Dumoulin. The tiny Frenchman excels in that kind of finishes and he is also a rather strong climber. This race is tailor-made for him and it is no wonder that he is a past stage winner. He has been riding really strongly this year and was sitting nicely in the top 10 of the Paris-Nice when a puncture ruled him out of overall contention.

 

Compared to riders like Howard and Mezgec, he may not be fast enough but at the end of a hard day of racing with lots of climbing, he should be up there. He would love to add a fourth stage win in Catalonia to his palmares and with the current Ag2r momentum, he may do so tomorrow.

 

In this race, Roberto Ferrari is certainly one of the fastest sprinters and he could very well return back to Italy with a stage win in his pocket. Whether he takes it tomorrow, however, remains a bit uncertain. On his days, the Italian climbs solidly but he is surely not at the level of Mezgec, Dumoulin, and Howard and tomorrow's stage may be a bit too tough for him. At the same, he doesn't seem to have the kind of speed he had in his Androni days and his first year with Lampre was a difficult one that has seen him drop down in the internal hierarchy. We doubt that he will be there at the finish in tomorrow's stage but if he is, he will be a danger man.

 

On paper, Giacomo Nizzolo would maybe be THE favourite in this stage but the Italian has just returned from a broken collarbone and is certainly not in his best condition. He managed to get through his first race back last Thursday in the GP Nobili but he was not in the group that sprinted for the win. As a good climber, the race suits him down to the ground but it may be a bit too early for him and on top of that, tomorrow's stage isn't the easiest one. His best shot at a stage win may come a little later in the week but if his progress continues, he may cause a surprise tomorrow.

 

Cannondale are in this race with Ivan Basso for the GC but they also have ambitions in the sprints with Daniele Ratto. The Italian is certainly not a pure sprinter and he may not have the speed to battle with the best but at the end of a hard stage like tomorrow's and with an uphill finishing straight, he may have a shot. Last year he proved his speed in this kind of races when he crossed the line first in a Vuelta a Burgos stage before being relegated due to irregular sprinting. He is certainly not the favourite to win tomorrow but if things go his way, he may be up there.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. The days when Koldo Fernandez mix it up in the sprints are mostly gone and these days he is more of a loyal domestique and a lead-out rider. In this race, however, he will get his chance and he will try to grab it with both hands. His condition is a bit uncertain as he hasn't raced since the Challenge Mallorca but having been part of the Garmin training camp, his best condition cannot be too far away. He doesn't seem to be as fast as he was earlier in his career but in this field he should have a chance. He is a solid climber and should be able to pass the ascents, meaning that he should be in with a chance in the finish.

 

Anthony Roux is not a pure sprinter but like Ratto he has a fast finish at the end of a hard race. He was the one to inherit the win from Ratto in last year's Vuelta a Burgos where he used his fast finish to wear the leader's jersey for a few days. He has been hampered by pain in his heels and so hasn't raced for a few weeks and this makes his condition a bit uncertain. On paper, however, he should be up there in an uphill sprint at the end of a hilly day.

 

Omega Pharma-Quick Step's young neo-pro Julian Alaphilippe is much more than a sprinter but he also has a very fast finish. In his first few races as a professional, he has been working as a domestique but with no team sprinter in this race, he may get a chance to show himself in the sprint finishes. Tomorrow's uphill finish after a few hard climbs should suit him well and tomorrow could be the day when he really marks his entrance on the professional scene.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Luka Mezgec

Other winner candidates: Leigh Howard, Samuel Dumoulin

Outsiders: Roberto Ferrari, Giacomo Nizzolo, Daniele Ratto

Jokers: Koldo Fernandez, Anthony Roux, Julian Alaphilippe