The mountain stages in this year's Volta a Catalunya are over and it is back into the flatter terrain for the final three stages of the race. First up is a long and very tricky route that has all the characteristics of a classic breakaway stage. However, the sprinters will also fancy their chances on the long run to Valls and this turns the race into an exciting and unpredictable affair. When our live coverage of E3 Harelbeke has finished, you can follow the final bit of the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The course

After two big mountain days, it is time for two easier days as the GC will probably have been decided at this point. First up is the longest stage of the entire race as the riders will use the 218.2km run from Campodron at the bottom of the finishing climb of the previous day to get back to the Mediterranean coast and a finish in Valls.

 

The stage mainly consists of a long gradual, downhill run back to the sea as the riders take off in a westerly direction. The first part is downhill but then it is time for a rolling section that has very few metres of flat roads but no major climbing or descending either. The riders will contest the first intermediate sprint 111.5km from the finish and it is followed by a gradual uphill section.

 

The westerly journey has now ended as the riders turn south to head back to the coast, meaning that they will now tackle a long descent. At the bottom, they head along dead flat valley roads and pass the site of the final intermediate sprint 76.1km from the line.

 

The flat roads are followed by a gradual uphill stretch to the city of Belltall and then the riders do the final part of the descent back to the coast. Instead of following the flat roads to Valls, however, the organizers have decided to follow a more straight line to the finish that send them up the only major climb of the day. The category 2 Alt de Lilla (6.3km, 4.8%, max. 7%) is a nasty little sting in the tail after a very long day in the saddle.

 

From the top, only 8.9km remain and they are almost all downhill, with the riders reaching the bottom just 2km from the line. However, the downhill is mostly on a long straight road that doesn't offer any real technical difficulties and it will be much easier for the peloton than for any escapees to keep a high pace in this section.

 

The stage ends on mostly flat roads but the finish is a bit technical. The riders will do a sharp left-hand turn with 1.8km to go and then another sharp right-hand turn 600m from the line. It is immediately followed by a left-hand turn that leads the riders onto the 400m finishing straight. There is a small 500m stretch that rise at an average gradient of 2% just before the flamme rouge and then it is downhill until the 500m to go mark. The final 500m are slightly uphill at an average gradient of 1%.

 

The final climb is not hard enough to make any differences between the overall contenders and the non-technical descent will make it harder to make a difference. The finish is identical to the one used for last year's penultimate stage where Simon Gerrans beat Gianni Meersman in a sprint finish from a big 60-rider group.

 

The weather

Today's stage was a brutal affair, with plenty of fog, snow, cold and rain. The riders will be happy to know that they are heading for warmer and more pleasant temperatures when they leave the Pyrenees and return to the coast for the final three days.

 

There won't be any sunshine on what should be a cloudy day but there won't be any rain either. The temperatures at the finish in Valls will reach a maximum of 13 degrees.

 

It should be a rather windy day, with a moderate wind blowing from a southeasterly direction and it will pick up as the day goes on. This means that the riders will have a crosswind for most of the stage before turning into a cross-headwind for the final part of the stage. Those will be the conditions up the final climb and on the descent. The riders will turn into a crosswind 1.8km from the line before turning into a headwind and the a cross-tailwind for the final 400m.

 

The favourites

With the mountain stages now over, the GC battle seems to be done and dusted. Alberto Contador is likely to test Rodriguez in both tomorrow's and Sunday's stage but the terrain is not hard enough to make a difference between the overall contenders and unless bad luck turns things around, the top 10 of the overall standings has been shaped.

 

This means that it is time for the a change in the spotlight as the GC riders move into the background and tomorrow's stage has a lot of different scenarios that will bring different riders into play. The finish of the stage is a well-known affair as is completely identical to the one used for last year's penultimate stage. That one ended as an extremely fast affair where the riders covered more than half of the stage before the break was finally established. Things got back together for the Alt de Lilla where Joaquim Rodriguez tried to test overall leader Daniel Martin. The climb was not hard enough to make a difference and instead it ended in a 60-rider sprint in Valls, won by Simon Gerrans ahead of Gianni Meersman.

 

This means that many riders know what to expect from tomorrow's stage. However, the first part was much harder 12 months ago as it contained a major climb while the opening phase of this year's route is mainly flat.

 

A lot of riders have red-circled tomorrow's and the final stage as opportunities for a breakaway. Saturday's stage is a guaranteed sprint finish and so Friday and Sunday are the final two chances for most of the riders in the peloton. They all know that the sprinters will be a bit uncertain about their ability to survive the final climb and with the stage being a very long one, there is a chance that they won't use their teams to chase for the entire day only to get dropped in the finale.

 

Hence, we can expect a very fast start to the stage and we wouldn't be surprised if we see a repeat of last year's scenario where it took a very long time for the break finally to get established. Almost all teams want to have a rider in the break and this should make the racing an exciting affair until the elastic finally snaps.

 

It will depend on the composition of the breakaway whether the break will go all the way to the finish. If the sprint teams have all managed to put a rider into the break and if it is big and strong one, they will probably be happy to save their energy for Saturday. On the other hand, if the break is small and important teams have missed out, it could easily be brought back together.

 

Both scenarios are realistic but we will put our money on a sprint finish. The final climb is not very difficult and last year most of the fast finishers survived. On that occasion, the stage had even been much harder and been raced at a very fast pace but the sprinters still managed to overcome the final challenge.

 

This year the easier start will make it much easier for the sprint teams to control affairs and make sure that the early break is not too strong. It won't be any easy task and they have no guarantee of succeeding but the chances are bigger. At the same time, the sprinters will be inspired by the headwind in the finale which should make it easier for them to survive the climb and harder for late attackers to stay away.

 

Giant-Shimano know that they have the fastest rider in this race and so they will likely give it a try. Cannondale have proved that they believe in Daniele Ratto and may lend them a hand. Orica-GreenEDGE have lost Brett Lancaster and Leigh Howard has had some stomach issues but if the latter is fully recovered, they may also get into the mix. Those aspects all point to a sprint finish.

 

Alberto Contador has said that he will try to use all remaining opportunities to attack Joaquim Rodriguez and there is a great chance that he will try tomorrow. However, he won't be able to finish it off as the final climb is not nearly hard enough to make a difference. Of course the increased pace will challenge the sprinters but as the aggression is likely to be shelved rather quickly, it shouldn't be too much of a problem.

 

If it comes down to a sprint finish, Luka Mezgec will be the man to beat. In the first two stages, he overcame a lack of team support to take extremely convincing sprint wins and there is no doubt that he is the fastest rider in the race. In last year's Giro and Tour de Romandie, he overcame much tougher climbing and it will be very hard for his rivals to get rid of him on the Alt de Lilla.

 

This sprint may be a bit more complicated though. His team will have to use a lot of energy to keep things under control and he can again expect to be on his own in the sprint. The technical finish makes positioning even more important and so he may pay a little more for his lack of team support. On the other hand, he has showed that he is a lot faster than his rivals and with a tailwind sprint he can allow himself to take off from afar. If he is reasonably positioned in the final corner, he will be very hard to beat.

 

Julian Alaphilippe has got a rare chance to sprint for himself in a WorldTour race and the young Frenchman has proved his excellent skills right from the beginning. He finished in the top 4 in the first two sprints of this race and he is obviously one of the fastest riders in this race.

 

What has been most impressive is his positioning ability and he has had great support from Pieter Serry and Gianluca Brambilla in the finale. Those two riders will both survive the final climb easily and Alaphilippe should also be there. This means that he may the one with the strongest team at his disposal in the finale and this is important in a very technical finish like tomorrow's. If Alaphilippe is brought into the optimal position in the final turns, he has the speed to finish off the work.

 

On stage one, Cannondale proved that they have a lot of faith in Daniele Ratto and even though he failed to make too much of an impression on the opening day, he made up for it one day later when he finished third. Ratto is no pure sprinter and a very solid climber and last year he survived the final climb. He is likely to so again tomorrow and with Lancaster out of the race, he may be the one with the greatest team support - provided that Michel Koch and Jean-Marc Marino survive the climb which is no given thing. If they do, however, Ratto may be the sprinter to exit the final corner in first position and so tomorrow could be his day to shine.

 

As said, Leigh Howard has been suffering from stomach issues but he seemed to be better in today's stage after finishing dead last on Wednesday. If he has recovered, he should survive tomorrow's climbing. In the GP Nobili just a few days before the Catalonian race, he was able to make it into a 19-rider group on the race's key climb and this proves that he is currently climbing excellently.

 

It has been evident that Howard is not as fast as Mezgec and with Lancaster out of the race, he had lost his main asset: the best lead-out train in the race. Sam Bewley won't survive the final climb and so he won't have any of his usual support riders at his disposal. On the other hand, he should be the second-fastest rider in this race and so he is the rider that is most likely to cause an upset.

 

Last year Samuel Dumoulin finished third in this stage. The tiny Frenchman is no pure sprinter but among the fast finishers he is probably the one that climbs the best. If this race turns out to be a really hard one and the faster finishers fall off the pace, he will be in with a shot. He won't have much support in the finale and will have to navigate the final turns on his own but the uphill sprint should suit him well. As there are several faster riders in this race, it is hard to imagine Dumoulin actually winning the stage but a tough race may change his prospects.

 

Roberto Ferrari is more of a pure sprinter than most of the other fast finishers in this race and he will struggle on the final climb. However, he seems to be riding really well at the moment and in the past he has overcome tougher climbs. He doesn't have an awful lot of team support but he is excellent at handling the positioning aspect. This will come in handy in this technical finish where he will also benefit from his very explosive sprint. The final climb may take the final sting out of his sprint but due to his fast speed, he will be a danger man if he is there at the finish.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. As said, the stage may be won by an early breakaway and if so, the king of breakaways will be ready to step up. For Luis-Leon Sanchez this race is one of his main goals in the first half of the season and he hasn't shown anything until now. Tomorrow he will do his utmost to get into the early break and when he plans to do so, he usually succeeds. Furthermore, he usually finishes it off when he joins the right group and he has been riding really well from the start of the season. The finale with a climb, a descent and a technical finish suits him perfectly and he has the speed to finish it off if he arrives at the finish with a small group.

 

Paul Martens has two options in tomorrow's stage. He will try his hand in case of a sprint finish but even though he is fast, it will be hard for him to beat riders like Mezgec. However, he will have a very good chance if he joins a successful breakaway. As an Ardennes specialist, he will easily survive the final climb and he has a very fast sprint to finish it off. Look out for the Belkin rider if he manages to make it into a successful break.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Luka Mezgec

Other winner candidates: Julian Alaphilippe, Daniele Ratto

Outsiders: Leigh Howard, Samuel Dumoulin, Roberto Ferrari

Jokers: Luis-Leon Sanchez, Paul Martens