Today's stage proved that nothing is guaranteed in the Volta a Catalunya when the breakaway denied the sprinters on the easiest stage of the race, and so it is only fitting that the race ends with a very unpredictable affair. 8 times up the Montjuic climb will make for some very exciting racing and could be an option for fast finishers, attackers and maybe even GC riders. When the Gent-Wevelgem has finished, you can follow the final part of the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The course

Last year the race ended with a stage in Barcelona that included several laps of a circuit that included the famous Montjuic climb and it produced some very exciting racing as Michele Scarponi used the ascent to attack and move himself up into 3rd on the final day of racing. The organizers were so pleased with that stage that the race will again end on the very same circuit in the Catalonian capital.

 

The final day sees the riders tackle a short 120.7km stage but unlike last year, the race will both start and finish in Barcelona. From the start at the L'Hospitalet de Llobregat on the western outskirts of the city, the riders head long flat roads in a northwesterly direction and pass the first intermediate sprint after just 9.2km. Then they tackle the category 3 Alt de Castellbisbal (4.4km, 3.5%, max. 5%) whose top comes at the 21.5km mark.

 

After the passage of the climb, the riders turn around to head down the descent back towards the city but they will do a small loop to tackle the category 3 Alt de Corbera (3.9km, 4.7%, max. 8%). It is followed by a fast descent that leads back to the Barcelona suburb of San Vincenc del Horts after 41.8km of racing.

 

The riders now travel through the city along flat roads and pass the site of the second intermediate sprint with 62.9km to go. 13.7km further down the road, they pass the finish line in the city centre for the first time and now it is time for the real action to start.

 

The race ends with 8 laps of the 6.15km finishing circuit in the Montjuic park and it is a tricky affair. From the line, it goes almost straight up the category 3 Alt Montjuic (2km, 5.7%, max. 8%) that is well-known for most bike riders. At the top, 3.65km remain to get back to the line and they are almost entirely downhill, with only a small little hill 2km from the line. The descent is not overly technical and follows a winding road. The riders make a sharp turn 2.25km from the line and go straight through a roundabout around the flamme rouge and then the road only has some sweeping turns as it continues its way back down to the finish.

 

The Montjuic is an iconic climb in cycling. In 2009, Thor Hushovd won a tough uphill sprint on its slopes in the Tour de France while the climb last featured in  a grand tour in the 2012 Vuelta. On that occasion, Philippe Gilbert and Joaquim Rodriguez escaped and held the peloton at bay on the descent, with Gilbert taking an easy sprint win, his first victory for BMC. When the final stage finished on the same circuit 12 months ago, Thomas De Gendt and David Lopez attacked 22km from the finish to join the early breakaway and after dropping their companions, they were joined from behind by Michele Scarponi and Robert Kiserlovski. With Scarponi riding for GC, the quartet stayed away to the finish where De Gendt won the sprint to take his only victory of 2013 while Scarponi moved up into 3rd on GC. Behind, a 57-rider group sprinted for the minor placings. Joaquim Rodriguez tried to attack overall leader Dan Martin on the final laps but the climb was not hard enough to make a difference.

 

 

The weather

These days the weather seems to be turned completely on its head in Europe. While the Gent-Wevelgem riders can expect to do the Belgian classic in 22-degree temperatures, the Volta a Catalunya riders have had some very tough conditions for the Spanish stage race. Today was a very windy day and the riders can again expect to battle a stiff breeze in tomorrow's stage, making the conditions some that you would expect in a Belgian classic.

 

The conditions should be very similar to today's. It should be another dry but cloudy day with no chance to see the sun. The temperatures will reach a maximum of 15 degrees at the midpoint of the day and it will again be rather windy.

 

There will be a rather strong wind from a northeasterly direction which could make the opening part of the race rather interesting as there will be a direct crosswind for most of the opening loop. On the final circuit, there will be a crosswind most of the time up the Montjuic while there will be both a head- and a tailwind on the descent. The riders will have a direct headwind for the final kilometre.

 

The favourites

The final stage of the race is certainly the most unpredictable of the entire race as almost any scenario is possible on the hilly Montjuic circuit. The climb is well-known by most riders and has been used for several bike races in the past but the combined strain of 8 times up its slopes makes a lot of possible outcomes realistic.

 

Last year's final stage finished with 8 laps of the same circuit and may give a bit of an idea of what we can expect. On that occasion, a break managed to stay away but the early move didn't make it. Instead, late attacks on the circuit were the ones that stuck but the escapees only stayed away by a 21-second margin. Behind the four escapees, 57 riders sprinted for fifth, with Samuel Dumoulin beating Julien Simon and Manuele Mori while most of the pure sprinters had been left behind.

 

We can expect the stage to get off to a very fierce start. Everybody knows that a break has a great chance of staying away as it is not immediately obvious who's going to chase it down. Many riders have saved energy for today's stage and most teams desperately want to make it into the move as they want to take something away from this race.

 

At the same time, the hard wind and many crosswind sections in the first part of the race will make the GC riders extremely nervous and there is a chance that things may split in the opening part of the race. In any case, the hard pace in the tough terrain makes it likely that many riders will fall off the pace and will never see the front again. There is a great chance that the break won't get clear until we reach the finishing circuit after more than 60km of racing.

 

At some point, a group will go clear and the race will settle for a little while but the racing on the final circuit should be tense. The gap is unlikely to get too much of a gap as those teams that have missed out are likely to keep things under control and at the same time some of the GC teams may want to make the race tough by riding hard up the slopes. Like last year this will open the door for late attackers that try to bridge across and we could be in for a very dynamic race with constant changing situations in the front.

 

Three scenarios are possible for the stage. There is a chance that an attacker - either an early one or one that goes clear on the finishing circuit - will stay away to the finish as they are very difficult to chase back in this terrain. Secondly, the race may come down to a sprint from a reduced bunch as it almost happened one year ago.

 

Finally, Alberto Contador has promised that he will make a final attack on Rodriguez. He will probably use his Tinkoff-Saxo team to make things hard and then take off the final time up Montjuic. Rodriguez knows this and the short ascent suits the Katusha rider much more than the Tinkoff-Saxo star. Hence, there is virtually no chance that Contador will get rid of Rodriguez and we are likely to see a similar scenario to the one we had on Friday's stage when a small group of GC favourites got clear and when they started to look at each other, some of the riders that were just behind the best took off. On Friday, Jakob Fuglsang benefited from that situation and tomorrow a similar attack could be a very good strategy. With just 3.5km of downhill back to the finish, there is a much greater chance that such an attack will be successful.

 

With a lot of different scenarios possible, the stage has a wide range of potential winners. One of the riders that can win from all three scenarios is Luis-Leon Sanchez. Riding for Caja Rural, this race is one of his two big targets in the first part of the season but we haven't seen much from the strong Spaniard yet. In the early part of the season, however, he has proved that he is riding really well and there is no doubt that he has marked out tomorrow's stage as his.

 

Sanchez has an excellent skill to pick the right breakaway and finish it off. The short Montjuic climb with its subsequent descent suits his climbing and fabulous descending really well and he has a fast sprint to finish it off. He may be part of the early break, attack on the finishing circuit, win a sprint in the end or be one of the riders that attacks over the top on the final lap if the GC riders start to look at each other. The stage is tailor-made to a versatile rider like Sanchez and we would be greatly surprised if he doesn't show his cards at some point in the race.

 

If it all comes back together for a sprint, Samuel Dumoulin will be the man to beat. Among the fast finishers, the tiny Frenchman is probably the best climber and he excels on this kind of short, steep ascents. It is no wonder that he won the sprint behind the escapees 12 months ago and he will be extremely eager to repeat to turn such a sprint performance into a stage victory. He showed good form in Paris-Nice where only bad luck took him out of GC contention and he showed his speed when he finished 3rd in Friday's stage. His Ag2r team will be mostly focused on Bardet, Pozzovivo and the GC but they will also keep an eye on Dumoulin's chances. Today they started to chase late in the race and tomorrow there is a great chance that they will be the ones to keep things together. With an in-form Mikael Cherel on the roster, they have a strong team to control things and we can expect the Frenchmen to play a prominent role.

 

Dumoulin only narrowly edged out Paul Martens in Friday's sprint and the German is another very strong winner candidate. As an Ardennes specialist, he should have no trouble surviving the Montjuic and he has a very fast sprint at the end. Belkin got a great boost of confidence by today's stage win for Stef Clement and they will take to the start line eager to make it two in a row. Martens has all the characteristics to shine on this course and if it comes down to a sprint, he will be one of the men to beat.

 

Rigoberto Uran had lofty ambitions for the GC but it all came to nothing when he suffered in Thursday's cold conditions. However, the Colombian is riding solidly and this short explosive climb suits him really well. He is far back on GC and should get some room if he goes on the attack in the finale. He is an excellent descender and could be the one to make a move if the GC favourites look at each other after the final passage of the climb. With a fast sprint, he has the skills to finish it off if he arrives at the finish with a small group.

 

Defending champion Daniel Martin had already made it clear that he was unlikely to make it two in a row as his focus on the Giro means that he is not as strong as he was 12 months ago. Nonetheless, he is still riding well and sitting inside the top 20 on GC. The Montjuic climb suits him down to the ground and he is an excellent descender. With a fast finish, he can win from a small group as well and he will be eager to make his mark in the race that plays close to his adopted home in Catalonia.

 

Samuel Sanchez lined up at this race with GC ambitions but it is clear that the new BMC rider is not yet at his best. Sanchez usually requires some time to get his diesel engine going but tomorrow's stage could be a option for him. He has the aggressive mindset, climbing abilities and excellent descending skills that are needed to excel on this course and he usually knows when to launch a sneaky attack.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Last year Thomas De Gendt won this stage and there is no doubt that this will make him even more eager to repeat his success. In 2013 he was struggling with injury but his aggressive showing in Le Samyn and in the queen stage of this race indicate that he may return to his former level. De Gendt probably won't wait for the final lap but will attack from a bit further out. Everybody knows that the Belgian is very difficult to get back if he makes it off the front on this kind of circuit.

 

Yesterday Jakob Fuglsang tried to exploit the hesitation from the favourites when he took off on the descent from the Alt de Lilla and he nearly finished it off with a stage win. Tomorrow he could give it a similar go if the GC riders again look at each other on the Montjuic. Fuglsang will be one of the first to join and he won't hesitate to attack over the top. He is a great descender and obviously riding well and this time it will be easier for him to finish it off.

 

Wilco Kelderman could use the same tactic. The Belkin rider was riding really well but a crash in the queen stage saw him drop out of the top 10. However, he should be able to follow the GC favourites on the Montjuic and then he has the aggressive mindset that could allow him to exploit any tactical standstill.

 

Finally, we won't rule out Luka Mezgec on this stage. On paper it should be a bit too hard for him. However, the Slovenian survived some rather tough climbing in last year's Vuelta and we wouldn't be too surprised if he makes it over the top with the peloton. The main challenge will be to get back to the front in time for the sprint to start but if he makes it, everybody knows that he is the fastest. Daniele Ratto and Julian Alaphilippe are also rather strong climbers that may survive the Montjuic and if they do, they have the speed to finish it off.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Luis-Leon Sanchez

Other winner candidates: Samuel Dumoulin, Paul Martens

Outsiders: Rigoberto Uran, Daniel Martin, Samuel Sanchez

Jokers: Thomas De Gendt, Jakob Fuglsang, Wilco Kelderman, Luka Mezgec, Julain Alaphilippe, Daniele Ratto