It's time for one of the most important build-up weeks of the cycling season, with the next few days offering no less than four stage races that will form a key part of the preparation that shall see classics and stage race riders hit peak condition for the months of March and April. One of the options for the world's best cyclists is to head to Portugal for the Volta ao Algarve which offers five days of high-quality racing under usually sunny conditions. The race has traditionally been dominated by time trialists but a twist to the course may now turn it into the hands of the climbers.

 

The month of February may not offer the most prestigious bike races on the calendar but the final winter month plays a crucial role for every ambitious cyclist. With the first big races coming up in March and the cycling season having really ramped up in the last few weeks, it is now time to get in the racing miles that will allow the riders to hit their best form for the races that really matter.

 

Hence, it is no wonder that the month of February is littered with stage races in Southern Europe and the Middle East that offer the riders the chance to test their legs and get in quality racing under reasonable weather conditions. Next week plays a special role as it offers the final chance for the riders to do some racing ahead of the Belgian opening weekend.

 

In the past, all riders headed to Southern Europe for those important early-season kilometres. With races like Etoile de Besseges, Tour Mediateraneen, and the Tour du Haut-Var, France had a lot to offer, Portugal had the Volta a Algarve, and Spain and Italy both had a nice series of short stage races that worked as solid preparation.

 

In recent years, the economic crisis has had its clear effect on the racing scene. While the wealthy Middle East now offers a very well-organized and attractive block of racing with the Dubai Tour, the Tour of Qatar and the Tour of Oman, several European races have disappeared. Italy no longer plays host to a stage race before Tirreno-Adriatico and while the French races have all been saved, the Spanish scene has been hit hard by the difficult times. The Vuelta a la Comunitat Valenciana no longer exists and the Vuelta a Murcia is now just a one-day race, leaving just the Vuelta a Andalucia as an option in the biggest country on the Iberian peninsula.

 

Just across the border, the Volta ao Algarve is another opportunity for riders looking for nice weather and hilly terrain to prepare for the biggest races on the calendar. Like Spain, Portugal has been hit hard by the economic crisis and last year the Algarve race was in a battle for survival. Luckily, the organizers managed to save the great event, albeit in a shortened 4-day version, but this year it is back in its full 5-day format.

 

Portugal is not one of cycling's powerhouses and only rarely has the chance to showcase the cycling elite. Their national tour, the Volta ao Portugal, is a big national event with plenty of live TV coverage but remains mostly a national affair that has been unable to attract a single WorldTour team in recent years.

 

This has turned the Volta ao Algarve into the marquee event on the Portuguese calendar, with the race being the only one to offer WorldTour level racing. Despite the tough economic times, the race remains a popular choice as there is a reasonable chance for good weather and the race offers a nice mix of terrain that suits most different rider types.

 

A few years ago, Algarve seemed to be the place to be in February and the race attracted some fantastic line-ups, with the race even being shown live on Eurosport. With the rise of the Tour of Oman, the race has lost a bit of prestige and the uncertainty over last year's edition prompted several riders to avoid taking the risk of adding the event to their calendar.

 

This year the Portuguese race appears to have lost the battle against the races in Oman and Andalucia but the start list is still nothing to be ashamed of. The race can present both reigning world champions as Rui Costa relishes the chance to race on home soil and Tony Martin hopes to take a third overall win in the event. Two-time winner Alberto Contador has always liked the Portuguese race and returns after a few years of absence while Vuelta champion Chris Horner will also be present. If one adds the presence of Mark Cavendish who will continue to dial in his lead-out train with Mark Renshaw and Alessandro Petacchi, five great days of racing should be in store.

 

The race has had a lot of different formats. In the past, it has been a rather flat affair that has even been won overall by Petacchi and Stijn Devolder took the win in an edition that was almost decided entirely by the time trial. However, the race has mostly included its marquee stage to the top of the short, steep Alto do Malhao and a rather long time trial, making it one for the true stage race specialists. The length of the time trial has often tipped the balance in favour of the time trialists and it is no wonder that Tony Martin has finished in the top 2 three years in a row.

 

Having won the race in 2011, Martin took his 2nd title one year ago when he defended himself well on the Malhao before taking a dominant win in the final day time trial.  He put more than a minute into teammate Michal Kwiatkowski over the 34.8km course in what was a convincing Omega Pharma-Quick Step showing. Martin and Kwiatkowski made it a 1-2 for the Belgian team while Lieuwe Westra completed the podium Westra won't be present as he is currently racing in Qatar but the Omega duo will be back to try to repeat the feat.

 

The course

As said, the Volta ao Algarve has tried a few different formats but has mostly stuck to a well-known, tested formula that has always been a guarantee for success. A couple of sprint stages - often with some rather lumpy finishes - kick off the spectacle while the GC is decided by the mountaintop finish on the Alto do Malhao and a time trial that has often taken place on the final day. As Malhao is a rather short, explosive affair and the TTs have tended to be rather long, the race has favoured the time trialists but this year the race seems to be open to more riders.

 

In the last three editions, the time trial has been 17km, 25km and 34km respectively but this year the specialists will have less time than usual to gain seconds over the climbers. The race against the clock has been shortened to just 13.6km. Furthermore, the TT now takes places before the Malhao stage, meaning that the climbers now know how much time they need to gain on the final climb. If one adds the fact that a very hilly 2nd stage has been added, it will be harder for the time trialists to come to the fore in this year's edition of the race.

 

Stage 1:

The Volta ao Algarve kicks off with an Algarve classic as the opening stage will finish in Albueira for the fifth year in a row. Like last year, the stage will start in Faro but this year the riders will follow a shorter 160km route between the two cities.

 

The start of the stage is rather tough, with the first 33.9km being predominantly uphill as the riders leave the coast and head in a northern direction. It is more of a long, gradual uphill drag than a real climb but the first KOM points will be handed out at the top at the end of an 9.1km ascent that has an average gradient of 2.0%.

 

At the top, the riders will tackle a short downhill section  and from there it is predominantly flat as the riders head back to the coast and the finishing city of Albufeira. After 133.6km, the peloton passes the finish line for the first time to start a lap on a 26.4km finishing circuit in the area west of Albufeira. The roads are almost completely flat but the well-known finish is a little bit tricky. There's a short descent inside the final 5km that leads to the bottom of a small hill close to the finish. The top comes just 1km from the finish and the presence of the ascent has often made for some uncontrollable and surprising finales.

 

That was the case last year when Thomas Sprengers, Paul Martens, and Tiago Machado slipped away in the finale, with the latter two narrowly holding on to 1st and 2nd on the stage. In 2012, Gianni Meersman beat Greg Van Avermaet and Matti Breschel in the sprint while Andre Greipel was the winner in 2011. In 2010, a late break again succeeded when Benoit Vaugrenard held off the sprinters in the difficult finale. Omega Pharma-Quick Step will try to keep things together for a bunch sprint for Cavendish but as history proves, they need to be careful in this tricky finale.

 

 

Stage 2:

The second stage is a novelty in the Volta ao Algarve and offers the climbers an extra chance to take time on the time trialists. That is hard to see in the early part of the stage as the riders travel along the coast on flat roads from the start in Lagoa. They will follow the coastline for 132km until they reach the city of Aljezur where the hostilities start.

 

The riders will turn right to leave the seafront behind them, climbing a 5.2km category 3 climb with an average gradient of 5.6%. From there they head over rolling terrain with an uncategorized climb to the finish in Monchique that they reach after 177.7km of racing.

 

Here they start one lap of the difficult 18.3km finishing circuit. It consists of a fast downhill which brings them to the bottom of the final category 3 climb. At 4.6km and with an average gradient of 7.6%, it is a rather tough affair and the top is located just 5.8km from the finish. They are predominantly downhill and rather technical with several corners as the riders head down to the finish in Monchique. There is little doubt that the climbers will try to exploit this opportunity and we should be in for an aggressive and exciting finale to the stage.

 

 

Stage 3:

The time trial will take place earlier than usual as the riders will already make use of their TT bikes on the third day. The 13.6km stage from Vila de Bispo to Sagres is significantly shorter than it has been in the past editions which is a clear disadvantage for the TT specialists.

 

Riders like Tony Martin may complain about the length but they do certainly not have any reason to regret the nature of the course. The route is predominantly flat with only a small downhill section in the first part as the riders head along long, straight roads from the interior of the country to a finish on the coast. The first part is completely non-technical and will be for the real specialists but there will be several corners when the riders reach the finishing city, making for a more complicated finale. Nonetheless, this is a course for the real time trialists who will do their utmost to maximize their gains ahead of Saturday's queen stage.

 

 

Stage 4:

The Alto do Malhao is the marquee climb of the Volta ao Algarve and it is not a true edition of the Portuguese race if the riders haven't climbed then 2.6km ascent with its average gradient of 9.6%. This year's edition of the queen stage is 164.5km long and starts in Almodovar before it brings riders over rolling terrain to the finish on the ascent on the outskirts of Loule.

 

The riders start by doing a 30km flat circuit around the city of Almodovar before they start their southern journey towards the city of Loule. That part of the stage has a rolling nature and brings the riders up an uncategorized climb before they head down a long descent.

 

After 97km, the riders pass the second feed zone and a few moments later, the road starts to point upwards. After 121.5km, they reach the top of the Malhao for the first time and from there the riders do one lap of a difficult 43km circuit.

 

The first part is rolling but predominantly downhill and lead to a short, very steep category 3 climb (1km, 13%). From the top 11.5km remain, consisting of a fast descent and a gradual uphill section that leads to the bottom of the Malhao. Then all is set for the final showdown on the steep slopes that always provide a big spectacle.

 

The stage to Malhao usually comes down to the final ascent of the climb and so suits the explosive climbers. At the same time, the accumulated level of climbing is not too hard and the final ascent is a short one, meaning that the time trialists can limit their losses. Last year Sergio Henao took a resounding win ahead of local hero Rui Costa while Bradley Wiggins set Richie Porte up for a beautiful solo win one year earlier. The climb has been dominated by Sky in recent years as Stephen Cummings won the stage while riding for the team in 2011 while Alberto Contador conquered the ascent in 2010 after having been beaten by Antonio Colom one year earlier.

 

 

Stage 5:

The sprinters will be back in action for the final stage which ends on a circuit in the city of Vilamoura where a stage hasn't finished for the past decade. The 155.8km stage starts in Tavira with a small lap on a flat circuit around the starting city.

 

From there, the riders head along flat coastal roads until they reach the 60km mark where they turn right to make a small journey into the interior of the country. This sends them up a long, gradual uncategorized climb that is followed by a descent back to the coast and the finish line in Vilamoura.

 

After 108.2km, the riders cross the line for the first time and they end the race by doing 4 laps of an 11.9km circuit. It is slightly uphill in the first part before descending to the finish but nothing should prevent a big bunch sprint. The finish is rather non-technical with only some sweeping turns inside the final kilometres, meaning that the stage is perfectly suited to a sprint at very high speeds.

 

 

The favourites

Last year's race was a rather predictable affair as there was never any chance that Tony Martin would lose so much time on a short climb like Malhao that he couldn't take it back in 34km time trial. The world time trial champion dutifully defended himself on the climb before crushing the opposition in the race against the clock.

 

This year's more diverse course will make it much harder for Martin to defend his title and opens the race to a much wider range of riders. Again it will mostly come down to Malhao and the time trial but there may be chance for the climbers to take a few seconds on stage 2 as well and the bonus seconds should further benefit the riders who excel on the ascents.

 

It will be a tough ask for Martin to bring home a third win but he remains our favourite to take the title. The course for the time trial suits him down to the ground as it is completely non-technical and even though he excels much more on longer courses, he is not too bad on short ones either. Last year he put 40 seconds into a real specialist like Tom Dumoulin on a 15km course in the Tour of Belgium and if he is at a similar level, there is no reason to believe that he will not gain more than that on most of his climbing rivals.

 

Martin's main advantage is of course his time trialing abilities but he is also a solid climber. When he won Paris-Nice in 2011, none of the best climbers in that race could drop him - even on some rather steep ascents - and it is worth remembering that he has also finished on the podium in the Tour de Suisse. The explosive nature of the Malhao doesn't suit him too well and there is no doubt that he will be on the defensive come Saturday but last year he only lost 18 seconds to Henao. In 2012 he was far from his best level and lost a bit more, 40 seconds to Richie Porte, while he even finished with the best riders in 2011.

 

If he can limit his losses like last year, there is no reason to believe that he won't be able to take it back in the time trial. The second stage offers an extra challenge but he will have time to come back after the climb. The main concern is his previous showings in 2014. He did a very bad time trial in the Dubai Tour, and even though he was hampered by a late start and harder winds, he was still beaten by neo-pro Lasse Norman who started around the same time as Martin. He didn't impress in his lead-out efforts either and there are indications that Martin is not firing on all cylinders.

 

However, the Dubai Tour was Martin's first race of the season and with a few racing kilometres in his legs, he should be better. At the same time, he will have a few days to ease into the race before he needs to go full gas in the time trial. This should benefit the strong German and even though it will be much harder for him to win this time around, he must be the favourite to take a third title.

 

His biggest rival is actually a teammate and the rider who finished 2nd in the race last year. While none of Martin's other rivals will have any chance to match him in the time trial, things are different when it comes to Michal Kwiatkowski. The versatile Pole is one of the best time trialists in the world as he proved when he finished 2nd in this race last year and 5th in the first time trial of last year's Tour de France. He may not beat Martin but he should not be far off the mark on such a short course.

 

At the same time, Kwiatkowski is a better climber than Martin. He stepped up his level massively during the 2013 season and he has started his season with all guns blazing. In the hardest race of the Mallorca Challenge, he bridged across to Sergio Henao on the Coll du Puig Major and left behind the Colombian and the remnants of the early break during the rolling run-in to the finish. Like last year, he is in excellent condition right from the beginning of the season and he will certainly take time on Martin on Malhao.

 

At the same time, Kwiatkowski is a fast sprinter who would be one of the favourites to win stage 2. If he earns a few bonus seconds there and goes on to perform solidly on the Malhao, it will be very hard for Martin to take enough time on his teammate in the time trial. Team dynamics may come into play - Kwiatkowski is unlikely to be the rider to attack Martin - but he will certainly try to follow the best climbers and this could open the door for his big stage race win.

 

The biggest rival for the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team is the rider that the home public would love to see on the top step of the podium. Rui Costa has a good track record in Algarve, having finished 6th, 5th and 5th in his three most recent participations and he will be eager to improve on that when he makes what will be his only appearance in an international race on home soil.

 

Costa is well-suited to the explosive Malhao climb as he has proved by finishing 2nd and 3rd in the last two editions of the race's queen stage. His showing in the Dubai Tour and the Challenge Mallorca prove that he is riding well right from the beginning and he doesn't appear to have been hampered too much by his world champion commitments. He is a fast finisher that may take some bonus seconds on stage 2, offering him more options than he has had in the past.

 

Costa is a solid but unspectacular time trialist and there is no doubt that he will lose a chunk of time to Martin and Kwiatkowski on Friday. It will be hard for him to take it all back on the climbs and it may even prove to be an impossible task to drop his Polish rival. This means that it will be hard for Costa to win the race but a podium place is very much within reach.

 

One of the very interesting aspects of the Algarve race is that it marks Alberto Contador's return to competition. The race will give us the first chance to see if the Spaniard can find back to his former level as he was always strong right from the beginning during his heydays, winning the race in Algarve in both 2009 and 2010.

 

Contador is a fierce competitor and there is no doubt that he will give it his all to try to win the race. If he has found back his stinging accelerations on the climbs, he will be the favourite on the Malhao but he still needs to overcome the time trial. In the past, Contador was one of the best time trialists in the world who even beat Fabian Cancellara in a long Tour time trial in 2009, but his skills in the race against the clocks are the ones that have deteriorated the most after his comeback. He had some very lacklustre showings in the TTs in 2013 and even though the Tour de France showed some kind of improvement, it will be hard for him to go up against the likes of Martin and Kwiatkowski. As this is also his first race of the season and as he still needs to prove that he is back to his best, it is hard to see Contador take a third overall win in the race. Nonetheless, he is one of the select few who has the ability to beat Martin.

 

In 2013, Simon Spilak was the big revelation of the spring season. After a number of years with solid but unspectacular showings, the Slovenian was on fire in the early season. He finished 4th in the Vuelta a Andalucia, was in the top 10 in the Paris-Nice, beat Alberto Contador to finish 4th in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, and was the only rider who could follow Chris Froome in the Tour de Romandie queen stage where he ended 2nd overall.

 

He never found that kind of legs in the second half of the year which was a very anonymous time for the talented Slovenian but indications are that he may find back his best legs in the spring. He was riding really well in Mallorca where he worked for his team and will now be eager to show his cards in Algarve.

 

At his best, Spilak is a very good climber but he would certainly have preferred a less explosive ascent than Malhao. What makes him a really solid podium candidate are his good time trialing skills. On last year's flat course in Romandie, he was 5th and beat several specialists and if he can reproduce that kind of performance on Friday, he will be in the mix. He will surely lose a good chunk of time to Martin and Kwiatkowski which makes it hard to win the race but a podium spot could be within his reach.

 

Another interesting aspect of the race is the presence of Chris Horner. The cycling world is wondering how long the American can keep going but based on his performance in Mallorca, nothing suggests that he is slowing down yet. Horner has always had the ability to train himself into top condition and it seems that he has again returned to Europe with a splendid form.

 

It would be no surprise to see Horner dance away from everybody else on the Malhao and maybe even do so on stage 2 also but the time trial will be a big hurdle for the American. He has done some good TTs on hilly courses but this flat route doesn't suit him well. It is hard to imagine that he can limit his losses sufficiently but we could easily see him end high up the standings by virtue of his splendid climbing.

 

Jerome Coppel didn't enjoy much success in his year as a Cofidis rider and it is now time to make amends for the Frenchman. He got his season off to a great start when he finished 2nd in the time trial and 2nd overall in the Etoile de Besseges and he has always started his seasons very well. Unlike most of the GC riders, his main asset is his time trial and he should come to the fore on Friday. However, he will be unable to match the best climbers on the Malhao where it may also be difficult for him to keep up with Martin and Kwiatkowski. This makes him an unlikely winner but his time trialing skills make him a solid top 5 candidate.

 

Wilco Kelderman is one of the great question marks in the race as he makes his season debut in Algarve. His team has said that they are mostly in Portugal to prepare and so we should not have too great expectations for the Dutchman. On the other hand, Kelderman started his 2013 season really well and he could do so again in 2014. He is a solid climber but his main asset is his good time trial. When he won the Tour of Denmark, he laid the foundation by winning a flat time trial of a similar length and if he can find back those legs, he is a genuine podium contender. As it is his first race of the season and he is building for the Giro, we doubt that it will happen but he is one of the riders with the allround skills to win the race.

 

Simon Spilak may be Katusha's best card but the Russian team also has another card to play. Young Sergei Chernetskii found some excellent legs at the end of his first professional season, finishing 4th in the Tour of Austria, 7th in the Vuelta a Burgos, and winning the Tour des Fjords. Those results prove that he can climb and he also has a decent time trial. He has started his season strongly, with a 13th place in the Dubai Tour which was based on a 15th in a time trial that is not too different from the one he will tackle on Friday, and he climbed well when he made an appearance in Mallorca. His top level may not be enough to win a race like Algarve but don't be surprised if he ends in the top  5.

 

Finally, Tiago Machado deserves a mention. The Portuguese was once a very talented stage race rider who seemed to possess the complete package. He climbed well and was an excellent time trialist but in his final years with Radioshack he was unable to find his previous level and ended as a rather mediocre rider. He has now signed with NetApp-Endura and will be eager to shine in his home race where he has always done well in the past, with 4th, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 6th place finishes in recent years. He put in a solid and aggressive showing in Mallorca and is clearly in fine condition. However, he still needs to convince the world that he can find back the legs that allowed him to almost follow Contador on the Malhao 4 years ago.

 

***** Tony Martin

**** Michal Kwiatkowski, Rui Costa

*** Alberto Contador, Simon Spilak, Chris Horner

** Jerome Coppel, Wilco Kelderman, Sergei Chernetskii, Tiago Machado

* Rein Taaramae, Jonathan Castroviejo, Sergey Firsanov, Jesus Herrada, Alexandre Geniez