After a well-deserved rest day, it is straight back to business for the GC riders in the Vuelta a Espana as racing resumes with one of the most crucial stages of the entire race. The long time trial at the midpoint of the race may be a bit shorter than usual but a flatter profile means that it suits the time triallists more than the traditional Vuelta time trial.

 

The course

After the first rest day, riders are often a bit uncertain about how their legs will react to the resumption of competition and so many prefer to have an easy day to get back into racing mode. For most of the riders, they will have their wish fulfilled as stage 10 is the first time trial of the race which is like another rest day for those not targeting the GC or the stage win.

 

For the GC riders, however, it is one of the most important days of the entire race. In recent years, the organizers have not had an awful lot of time trialling and in addition to an opening team time trial, the race has mostly only had one individual race against the clock at around 40km. Very often it has come at the midpoint of the race and has been a pretty hilly affair that has made it possible for the climbers to limit their losses.

 

This year, the time triallists are slightly more favoured. Again the main individual time trial comes at the midpoint and at 36.7km, it has its usual length. Most importantly, however, it is significantly flatter than hilly courses used in 2012 and 2013 and it should suit the specialists a lot more. Furthermore, the time triallists will get an extra chance to gain time as the race will end with another ITT on the final day.

 

A Vuelta time trial is never completely flat and the climbers will be pleased to know that the first 11.2km of the 36.7km course from Real Monasterio de Santa Maria de Veruela to Borja are all uphill. The first 9km are very slightly descending and lead to the bottom of the category 3 Alto del Moncayo (2.2km 5.5%). From there, the roads are slightly descending all the way to the finish in Borja. After the top of the climb, there are a few turns that make things a bit more technical but then the roads get a lot straighter. The final 6.7km are almost all on a long, wide road to the finish in Borja where there are 5 sharp turns inside the final kilometre.

 

Borja hasn’t hosted a Vuelta stage in the millennium but in 2000 and 2003 it played host to bunch sprints in the Vuelta a Aragon. Oscar Freire was the fastest in the former year while Alessandro Petacchi won in the latter.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The weather has been the main talking point in the first part of the race and it will again attract some attention for tomorrow’s time trial. After the brutally hot start to the race, the riders were suddenly hit by very cold conditions for the mountain stage and after they have now reached the northern part of the country, it is back into the heat.

 

It will be a beautiful sunny day with a maximum temperature of 33 degrees, meaning that it is almost as hot as it was for the opening stages in Andalusia. There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which may freshen a bit as the day goes on. The riders will have a tailwind until they reach the summit of the climb where they will gradually turn into a headwind. On the long, straight road to Borja, there will be a cross-headwind. If the wind picks up a bit, the early starters may have a slight disadvantage compared to the GC riders but it all depends on how exposed the roads are in the head- and tailwind seconds.

 

The favourites

Grand tour time trials are often hard to predict as it comes down to a mix of GC riders and specialists. If the time trial comes late in the race, they are often dominated by the GC riders whose better recovery make them stronger in the final week of the race. Earlier in the race, the specialists usually have the upper hand but in the Vuelta it has often been different. Very hilly courses have turned them into affairs for more versatile riders like in 2012 when Fredrik Kessiakoff beat Alberto Contador Contador a tough route, and in 2012 when Peter Velits took a surprise victory, while specialists Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara won in 2011 and 2013 respectively on courses that were not completely flat either.

 

In 2012 and 2013, the courses were pretty hard but the 2014 time trial is the easiest since 2011 when Martin took a dominant victory. The first part of the stage may be all uphill but the climbing is not very tough. The 2.2km climb has an average gradient of 5.5% and even though it will be enough to rule out a win for the really heavy guys, riders like Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin can go very fast up such mellow climbs. As the second half is not very technical and just slightly descending, it clearly favours the big specialists that can push a big gear into the headwind that will make this part pretty tough.

 

The climbers may be able to limit their losses in the first part of the stage but there is no doubt that this stage is more geared towards the specialists. The second part is for big, strong riders and the headwind will not do the climbers too many favours. The time trial is not the traditional motorway TT that the Vuelta used to have a few years ago but this year the balance has tipped away from the climbers.

 

As most of the big time trial specialists use the Vuelta a Espana to prepare for the World Championships, the Spanish race is usually able to present a very strong line-up. In 2014 it is definitely no different as all the major favourites for the rainbow jersey are present in Spain, with Bradley Wiggins being the notable exception.

 

For most of those riders, however, the Vuelta is mainly a preparation race and so they are not at 100% yet. This makes the outcome a bit harder to predict. Last year Fabian Cancellara beat Tony Martin comfortably in the Vuelta but when they too went head to head in Florence a few weeks later, Martin was in a class of his own.

 

Nonetheless, it is hard to look beyond Martin as the favourite to win this stage. Going into the race, the German was clearly not at his best and as it is often the case in the Vuelta, he failed to have the usual strong impact on the TTT as he has in most other races. As per tradition he has been riding at the back of the peloton, doing a bit of work for his team and made a few attacks and his condition is clearly on the rise. In fact he has been climbing very solidly and yesterday and in stage 4 he proved that his best form is not too far away.

 

Apart from supporting his teammates, this stage is his really big goal in the race – there is a big chance that he has abandoned the race before the final time trial in Santiago de Compostela – and he will do his utmost to return to his winning ways in the Vuelta. In 2012 and 2013, he was defeated and he only has a single Vuelta TT on his palmares.

 

Many believe that Martin mostly excels on completely flat courses but actually the German prefers it to be a bit more rolling. A few smaller climbs that are not too steep, favour Martin who is a much more versatile rider than many of his fellow specialists. Not many riders can go faster up a 5% climb than Martin and so there is a solid chance that he will even be faster than the GC riders at the top of the first climb. In the second part, he will benefit from his immense power and here he should be completely unrivalled.

 

Martin didn’t get his season off to a good start as he had a hard time winning time trials in the opening months. Since then he has returned to his winning ways and in the Tour de Suisse, the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and the Tour de France, he won on pretty tough courses. This one seems to be tailor-made for Martin and as he proved in the 2013 Worlds and the 2014 Tour, he is in a class of his own when he is at 100%.

 

This time, however, it is not already a closed deal. It is no coincidence that he has been defeated two years in a row. This time trial comes at a time of preparation for Martin and even though he is the major favourite, the fact that he is not at 100% may cause him to again settle for a minor position.

 

His biggest rival is likely to be Chris Froome. The Brit is not only the best climber in the world, he is also among the very best time triallists. In last year’s Tour de France, he nearly beat Martin on a completely flat course, proving that he can be up there in any kind of time trial. This year he narrowly beat Martin in the very mixed Tour de Romandie time trial and he took a comfortable win in the Dauphiné prologue.

 

However, Froome openly admits that he is far from his best condition and his performance in yesterday’s mountain stage made it obvious for everyone that he is not even close to his Tour de France form. Furthermore, no one knows how much of an impact his recent crash has had on his performance and this makes his performance in tomorrow’s time trial even more questionable.

 

Froome is unlikely to match Martin in the second half and he needs to put time into the German on the climb. As neither Martin nor Froome are at 100%, however, it should be a pretty close affair. Froome has proved that he is able to beat Martin on most courses and tomorrow he definitely has a chance to do so again.

 

Last year Fabian Cancellara surprised most when he beat Martin in the time trial. The Swiss dominated the TTs a few years ago but as he has turned his attention more towards the classics, he is no longer the time triallists he once was. Nonetheless, he performance in last year’s Vuelta proved that he is still able to beat the best.

 

This year Cancellara has already beaten Martin in the Tirreno-Adriatico and coupled with last year’s Vuelta win, it proves that he can make it two in a row in Spain. 12 months ago, however, his excellent form was a main talking point as he was climbing exceptionally well, working hard for Chris Horner in the mountains. This year he is clearly not at the same level and he has been suffering more in the heat than most of his colleagues.

 

Riding in the rain, he suddenly showed signs of improvement in yesterday’s stage but it is evident that he is not at the same level as he was in 2013. Furthermore, this power course may suit Martin a bit more than last year’s technical, hilly route. It will be a surprise if Cancellara manages to repeat last year’s win but you can never rule out a classy bike rider like the Swiss.

 

Adriano Malori proved that he belongs to the real TT elite when he beat Cancellara, Martin, Tom Dumoulin and Bradley Wiggins in Tirreno-Adriatico earlier this year. Already last year, the Italian was close to Martin on a number of occasions but this year he has stepped up his level a further notch.

 

However, Malori has mostly excelled in short, flat time trials and this course may be a bit too long for him to beat the giants. Even though he is a decent climber, he won’t be able to match Martin and Cancellara in the first half and so he needs to take it all back in the second half. Finally, it is not 100% guaranteed that he will go for the win as his Movistar team may ask him to take it easy, especially if he realizes that he is no longer in winning contention. It will be difficult for Malori to repeat his Tirreno performance but if he decides to give it 100%, he should be up there.

 

Rohan Dennis has proved that he is one of the very best time triallists. In the first part of the year, he finished second in nearly every time trial he did, some of them in very high-level fields. His most impressive performance, however, was his second-place behind Martin in the 2013 Dauphiné when he beat Froome on a mostly flat course.

 

Dennis’s condition is a bit uncertain. He didn’t shine in the Eneco TT and this race he has mostly been riding at the back of the field. That’s no surprise though as his main goal is to support his captains and in the past he has performed well in time trials despite seemingly not being in a good condition. The mixed course should suit him better than the pure specialists. He has made it clear that he wants to give the TTs a go and he is one of the select few with the skills to finish on the podium.

 

Kristof Vandewalle has stepped up his TT level massively. The Belgian has always been a talented time triallist but after having recovered from a mysterious illness, he has clearly stepped up his level a further notch. He won the Tour of Austria time trial in commanding fashion but his most impressive performance came a few weeks ago when he beat Malori in the Tour de Pologne.

 

Vandewalle is a very powerful rider who is best suited to the flat courses and this stage may be a bit too hilly. He will have a hard time limiting his losses in the first part but he should be among the best in the second half. He seems to be riding at a decent level and he has proved that he can handle the distance. At this point, recovery also plays a role but if he is close to the level he had in Poland, he is an obvious podium candidate.

 

We are very curious to see how Alberto Contador will do tomorrow. When he returned from suspension, he has a hard time finding back to his past level in the time trials. This year, however, he has been doing really well and even though he has mostly excelled on hilly courses, he has also done well in flat TTs. Of course he is not at 100% but it should now be evident that he is much better than he initially suggested. On this course he won’t be able to beat Martin, Froome and Cancellara but we wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes in the top 5.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. For years Rigoberto Uran was known as a pure climber who had a hard time limiting his losses in the time trials. After joining Omega Pharma-Quick Step, however, the Colombian has suddenly turned into an excellent time triallist. He nearly beat Martin in the Tour de Romandie and he crushed the opposition in the long Giro time trial. In the Tour de l’Ain he did an outstanding prologue to prove that his spring results were no coincidence.

 

In Romandie he did pretty well in a flat time trial but this course may be a bit too much for the specialists to suit him perfectly. It will be hard for him to repeat his Giro win but he should definitely be one of the big winners among the GC riders.

 

Jesse Sergent has long been known as an excellent time triallist but this year he seems to have become a bit stronger. He did really well in Romandie where he finished third behind Froome and Martin on a pretty hilly course and in the Tour of Austria he was second behind Vandewalle. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to be riding as strongly as he was back then and he has clearly been suffering in the heat. Furthermore, the hilly start doesn’t suit him perfectly but if he can rediscover the legs he had in Romandie, he may create a surprise.

 

Sergent’s teammate Bob Jungels is another good joker pick. The Luxembourger is a very strong time triallist as he proved when he finished third in the Dauphiné prologue. He is both a strong climber and a good rouleur and should find the course to his liking. However, he has mostly excelled on shorter courses and this one may be a bit too powerful to suit him perfectly.

 

Giant-Shimano have a pair of youngsters that are both riding really well. Tobias Ludvigsson has already proved his TT skills several times but after he crashed in the Giro, he has had a hard time finding back to his previous level. In this race, however, he seems to be back to his best level and it will be interesting to see if he can translate it into a good TT result. His teammate Chad Haga got very close to a win in the Vuelta a Burgos time trial and even though he won’t win tomorrow’s stage, he could finish in the top 10.

 

Jerome Coppel finished in the top 10 in last year’s TT and he seems to be riding really well at the moment. This course may be a bit too much about power to suit him perfectly but the opening climb should play to his strengths. He won’t win the stage but he could finish in the top 10 for the second year in a row.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tony Martin

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Fabian Cancellara

Outsiders: Adriano Malori, Rohan Dennis, Kristof Vandewalle, Alberto Contador

Jokers: Rigoberto Uran, Jesse Sergent, Tobias Ludvigsson, Bob Jungels, Chad Haga, Jerome Coppel, Andrew Talansky