A dramatic time trial produced another reshuffle of the overall standings and Alberto Contador has now established himself as the big favourite. However, his rivals get an immediate chance to put him under pressure. Stage 11 offers the third mountaintop finish of the race and a tougher final climb than in the previous two mountain stages should serve as an opportunity to open bigger time gaps than we have had earlier in the race.

 

The course

The first week may have mostly about survival for the GC riders but the second one offers lots of terrain where a difference can be made. After their defeat in the time trial, the climbers will get an immediate opportunity to take back some time when the race continues with its hardest mountain stage yet which will see the riders tackle some of the climbs just south of the Basque Country.

 

At just 153.4km, the stage is very short and brings the riders from the major city of Pamplona to a mountaintop finish at the Santuario de San Miguel de Aralar. Like the first mountain stages of the race, it is not a hard day with numerous climbs as the two only ascents come at the end, with the climb to the finish being the only big challenge. The first part brings the riders along flat roads on the plains south of Pamplona until they reach the first intermediate sprint in Tafalla after 59km of racing from where they turn around to head in a northwesterly direction back towards the hillier terrain.

 

The riders hit the foot of the mountains after 96.2km of racing where they contest the final intermediate sprint before going up a small uncategorized ascent. With 50.1km to go, they reach the bottom of the category 3 Puerto de Lizarrega (18.3km, 2.6%) which is a long, gradual climb that gets a bit steeper near the top. It is followed by a fast descent and around 10km of flat valley roads before it is time for the final category 1 climb to the finish.

 

At 9.9km, it is the longest finishing climb yet and with an average gradient of 7.5%, it should be a lot harder than the one tackled three days earlier. The first part is rather easy with a gradient of 6-8% but then it gets a bit harder with two-digit gradient for the next kilometre. The seventh kilometre gives a little room for recovery but then the riders hit the steepest part with a 14% section where the real difference can be made. The final 2km are a lot easier, with section of around 8% interspersed with easier gradient of 4-5%. The final kilometre has a gradient of around 5%. There are two hairpin bends just before the flamme rouge and inside the final kilometre, the riders go through two 90-degree turns, with the final one leading onto the 230m finishing straight.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

After one day in the cold, the riders have definitely returned to the heat after they arrived in Northern Spain. For the second day in a row, the riders will be greeted by bright sunshine all day. Luckily things will get a bit colder when they head into the mountains in the second half of the stage and the temperature at the bottom of the final climb will reach a maximum of only 24 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind in the first section before turning into a cross-headwind. At the bottom of the first climb, they will turn into a headwind and the wind will be against them until they finish the descent. In the valley, there will be a cross-headwind before they again turn into a headwind for the final climb. In the final 5km, there will mainly be a crosswind from the right.

 

The favourites

Going into the previous mountain stage, we pointed out that most of the favourites were a bit uncertain about their condition and so were reluctant to ask their team to chase down the early break. Our prediction proved to be true as most of them decided to join the break instead and the group stayed away to the finish, with Winner Anacona taking a very impressive stage win.

 

However, the GC battle produced a surprising outcome. Alberto Contador proved that he is in much better condition than he had indicated and that he is a genuine winner candidate. Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez bounced back from a mediocre showing in the first mountain stage and Alejandro Valverde suffered as soon as the race hit the real mountains. However, the big surprise was the fact that Chris Froome showed signs of weakness and this tendency was confirmed in today’s time trial.

 

Tomorrow’s mountain stage is definitely the hardest yet as the final climb is a lot harder than the Valdelinares which featured at the end of stage 9. It may not be as steep as the one in La Zubia but it is a lot longer and it offers the best chance yet for the GC riders to open bigger time differences.

 

However, the race is set to be decided when the riders tackle three consecutive mountain stages on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. That triptych may be such a daunting task that they want to save their teams for those three crucial stages. This will give a breakaway a better chance to make it to the finish in tomorrow’s stage.

 

With Froome clearly not at 100%, Sky will of course not take responsibility to bring back the early break. Nairo Quintana crashed in today’s stage and this means that Movistar will go into the stage with a cautious approach and they will probably try to get through the stage without suffering any time losses.

 

Alberto Contador still hasn’t won a stage but he now finds himself in the race lead a bit earlier than expected. Among the race favourites, he clearly has the weakest team and in the Dauphiné, a lack of team support cost him the overall win. If Quintana recovers from his injuries, Contador can expect the Colombian to try a long-distance attack later in the race and he will need all the team support to control the race in the many mountain stages to come. Hence, he will be pleased to see an early break stay clear and he has even indicated that he would prefer to lose the red jersey.

 

The only team that has a genuine interest in bringing back the break is Katusha. With Froome suffering and Quintana being injured, Joaquim Rodriguez is now the clear favourite to finish the race in second. However, the Spaniard has already been runner-up in grand tours and he has made it clear that he targets the overall victory in this race. He is already far behind Contador in the overall standings and he simply cannot allow the breakaway to pick up the bonus seconds.

 

Much will depend on the composition and size of the early breakaway. Many riders will have been motivated by the fact that the break stayed away two days ago and we can expect another very fast start to the stage. The fact that the first half is flat will make it easier to control but as it happened last Sunday, a big group may get clear.

 

In stage 9, Katusha had actually planned to bring back the break to set up Rodriguez for the win but when a big group got clear, they decided to join the actions instead. We would expect them to have a similar plan tomorrow. When the break has taken off, they may prefer to save their energy for the three crucial stages later in the week but if the break is not too strong, they will probably try to bring it back. The most likely outcome is that the favourites will battle for the win but a strong breakaway has a chance.

 

The first climb is not very difficult and can only be used by teams like Katusha and Tinkoff-Saxo to make the race hard by riding tempo. However, the selection will not be too big and the headwind will make it easier to follow the bunch. The GC riders will all save their energy for the final climb where we can expect a big battle.

 

The final climb is pretty constant and leaves little room for recovery which means that the attacks could start from pretty far out. However, the headwind will probably prompt the riders to be a bit more conservative and this means that we will probably have to wait until the steepest section with 3km to go before the big favourites launch their first attacks.

 

It is no secret that Alberto Contador has made it a habit to play down expectations and he usually goes into a race claiming that he is not at 100%. This time, however, the Spaniard has taken it to a whole new level. Of course he is not in Tour de France condition but his performance in today’s time trial and the first mountain stages indicate that he not far off the mark.

 

In the first mountain stage, he rode defensively but had no trouble following Chris Froome’s wheel. Two days ago he was clearly the strongest rider and only strong teamwork by Eduard Vorganov, a great final acceleration by Joaquim Rodriguez and a mostly flat finish prevented him from gaining time on Joaquim Rodriguez and Nairo Quintana. Today he was the fastest rider on the climb and there is no doubt that he is currently the best climber in this race.

 

As said, Contador’s biggest threat is his team which is clearly not at Movistar’s, Katusha’s or Sky’s level. In tomorrow’s stage, however, the only real difficulty is the final climb and this should make it possible for Contador to control the race. However, he knows that he can expect to come under pressure later in the race and he will be keen to gain as much time as possible. He has a very aggressive nature and if he has a chance to distance his rivals, he will definitely try to do so.

 

If Contador attacks in the steep section two kilometres from the finish, it will be very hard for anyone to follow him. Honestly, we can’t really imagine that anyone will be able to keep up with him and this time, the road is pretty steep all the way to the finish. This will make it harder to rejoin the Tinkoff-Saxo leader. If the stage comes down to a battle between the favourites, Contador will be the man to beat.

 

The rider most likely to pose a threat for Contador is Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spaniard has been climbing really well in this race. In stage 6, he had the strongest kick but mistimed it completely as he went too early and he paid the price in the end. Two days ago he was unable to follow Contador’s attack but one of his trademark accelerations allowed him to return to the front.

 

The headwind will make it easier for him to follow Contador and the irregular final kilometres suit him really well. If he is still with Contador as they pass the red kite, it will be very hard for the Tinkoff-Saxo leader to beat the Katusha captain whose acceleration may even allow him to gain a few seconds in the end.

 

Alejandro Valverde was extremely strong in the first mountain stage but by the time the peloton hit the real mountains, he started to suffer. That’s no surprise as there are stronger riders than the Spaniard on the really long climbs and tomorrow’s finishing climb may again be a bit too tough for him.

 

On the other hand, he is clearly in a great condition. Today only Contador was faster than him on the climb and as we are back in hot conditions, he should be stronger than he was two days ago. The headwind will be to his advantage and if it comes down to a sprint, he will be impossible to beat.

 

Of course Nairo Quintana is the big question mark. The Colombian seemed to be getting better and better and he rode strongly in the finale of stage 9. The Movistar leader was set to improve his condition all the way to the end but today’s crash has created lots of uncertainty in his camp.

 

Quintana may not have suffered any serious injuries but he will definitely not be at 100%. It will be a big surprise if he manages to win the stage. However, the Colombian is an excellent climber and as he is not a bit down in GC, he may not be as closely marked as he was earlier in the race. Quintana is definitely an outsider to win the stage.

 

Chris Froome looked strong in the first mountain stage and it is very hard to explain why he is suddenly suffering so much. Today he claimed to have started to fast which indicates that he is not at 100%. Usually, he is very focused on his watts and he has probably started out at a pace that he would usually be able to maintain all the way to the finish. Apparently, he wasn’t and this clearly indicates that he is far from his best condition.

 

His crash may explain some of his vulnerability but it is hard to see him turn things around. He is still too close in GC to be allowed any leeway and so he needs to ride away from his rivals to win the stage. That is unlikely to happen and he will probably suffer another time loss. However, the Brit is usually the best climber in the world and so he deserves a status as outsider.

 

If a breakaway makes it, it is a bit hard to predict the winner as the flat start makes it a bit of a lottery. Only a select few riders are strong enough to win this kind of stage but as it was the case two days ago, the easy opening means that the break will probably contain several riders that never stand a chance in such a tough finale.

 

Cadel Evans looked strong early in this race but he suffered when the race hit the mountains. He is now out of GC contention but today he bounced back with an incredible time trial. This indicates that the Australian is getting better and he could very well take a stage win at some point in the race. In the Tour of Utah, he used his vast experience to win two stages despite not being the strongest rider, and he will again make use of his race knowledge to hit the right breaks. As he is clearly riding strongly, he will be hard to beat in this kind of finish.

 

Tanel Kangert went into this race with GC ambitions but the Estonian lost time already in the first mountain stage. Now he will mainly support Fabio Aru but may also target a stage win. He did a very good time trial and his form is clearly not too bad. He is a strong rouleur which should make it easier for him to join the early break, and he has the climbing skills to finish it off.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Dominik Nerz already hit the break two days ago and claimed to be feeling really good until the rain made his legs feel completely blocked. Today he did a great time trial and he is clearly in a very good condition. BMC have made it clear that they will ride aggressively in every stage and they will probably try to send their German on the attack again. With his great form, he has a decent chance of finishing it off.

 

Pieter Serry climbed excellently in the mountain stage two days ago and today he did the time trial of his life. Rigoberto Uran’s good time trial means that Omega Pharma-Quick Step will be mostly focused on the GC but there may be room for attacks as well. If Serry makes the break, he could easily be the strongest climber and take a breakthrough win in the Vuelta.

 

Thibaut Pinot was sick at the start of the race but he is getting better and better and is confident that he will be able to win a stage in the final week. The flat start doesn’t suit him well but he will definitely try to join the break. He has been climbing at a decent level and should be a lot stronger if he is suddenly riding for a stage win.

 

A few days ago, we pointed to Adam Yates and the Brit is again a very good stage winner pick. He is unlikely to finish the race and will have to exploit his opportunities in the next few days. He seems to be getting a bit tired but he has proved that he is able to mix it up with the best climbers in a finish like this. He finished 20th in the stage to La Zubia, proving that his condition is very good, and he is hard to beat in an uphill sprint.

 

Bart De Clercq wasn’t at his best in the first part of the race but today he did a really good time trial. This indicates that he is riding himself into form. At his best, he is a very good climber and he will be hard to beat in this kind of finish. He seems to have left his health issues behind him and from now on he will only become stronger.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alberto Contador

Other winner candidates: Joaquim Rodriguez, Alejandro Valverde

Outsiders: Nairo Quintana, Chris Froome, Cadel Evans (breakaway), Tanel Kangert (breakaway)

Jokers: Dominik Nerz (breakaway), Pieter Serry (breakaway), Thibaut Pinot (breakaway), Adam Yates (breakaway), Bart De Clercq (breakaway)