After several days of suffering, the sprinters will finally get their chance to shine when the riders tackle one of the easiest stages of the entire race. The circuit race in Logrono is the only opportunity for the pure sprinters in the second week of the race and as most of them haven’t done a sprint yet, they will be eager to make the most out of the flat circuit in Northern Spain.

 

The course

We have barely passed the hallway point of the race but the sprinters have already had most of their opportunities. In fact, the second half of the race only offers two chances for the fast finishers and gives them very little incentive to stay in the race.

 

The first of those opportunities comes in stage 12 which is probably the easiest stage of the entire race. Unlike the Tour de France, the Vuelta has occasionally had stages that are held entirely as circuit races and mostly they have been fully dedicated to the sprinters. This will again be the case on the 12th day of racing when the riders tackle a completely flat 20.8km circuit on the southern outskirts of Logrono in the northern part of Spain.

 

The 166.4km stage is made up of 8 laps of the circuit that is flat and non-technical. There are no categorized climbs and very small elevation differences. The main highlights are the intermediate sprints that come 600m before the finish line at the end of the 2nd and 6th laps respectively. Like the rest of the stage, the final 5km are almost completely flat and there aren’t many technical challenges either. Inside the final 4km, there are several roundabouts but things get easier as they approach the red kite. The riders turn right just before the 2km to go mark and then do a left-hand turn 1.5km from the line. The final right-hand turn comes 1.15km from the finish and from there, it is a long straight and pretty wide road all the way to the finish.

 

The stage is almost a carbon copy of stage 5 of the 2012 edition of the race that was also held on a circuit in Logrono. Back then, John Degenkolb beat Daniele Bennati and Gianni Meersman in a bunch sprint. In 2007, Oscar Freire won a bunch kick in the city which proves that the fast finishers usually rule in Logrono.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Having been riding in brutal heat in the first part of the race, the riders have enjoyed almost perfect conditions for the last few stages. Tomorrow will be another great day for riding your bike as there will be plenty of sunshine and a maximum temperature of 28 degrees.

 

There will be a light northerly wind which is set to freshen a bit towards the end of the race.  This means that the riders will have a tailwind in the first part of the circuit and a headwind as they go back to Logrono.  In the final 2km, they will mostly have a crosswind from the left which will be the case on the long finishing straight too.

 

The favourites

Going into the race, the pure sprinters only had five real opportunities. Most of them got a chance to sprint in stage 2 but stages 5 and 8 were both turned into highly selective affair by strong crosswinds. Many of the fast guys missed the selection and now they are running out of options. In fact, the only remaining chances are tomorrow’s stage 17 next Wednesday and to get to the latter stage, they need to survive three brutal mountain stages. A rider like Andrea Guardini who punctured in stage 2 and missed the splits in both crosswind stages has not even had a chance to sprint yet.

 

For the more versatile riders like Michael Matthews and John Degenkolb, the final two weeks may offer another two opportunities but for most of the riders, tomorrow’s stage is the penultimate chance. Hence, it will be a hotly contested affair and we can expect the riders to take lots of risks in the expected sprint.

 

As said, the Logrono circuit was last used in 2012 and back then, almost the entire peloton arrived at the finish together. The terrain is very easy and the only real danger is the wind. This area can be pretty windy and anyone who has done the Vuelta a Burgos knows how much impact strong winds can have on the racing. Tomorrow, however, should be a pretty calm day and the riders will mostly have a head- or a tailwind.

 

Everybody knows that the sprinters won’t let this opportunity slip away and so we can expect an easy start to the stage. Only a few riders and teams want to waste energy by going on a suicide attack and we can expect the early break to be created straight from the gun. Expect Francisco Javier Aramendia to be part of the action and he is likely to be joined by riders from teams like MTN-Qhubeka, Europcar, IAM and Cofidis.

 

For the race leader’s team, it should be an easy day as we can expect Giant-Shimano and FDJ to carry the main workload. Those two teams know that they have the major favourites and they have gladly committed themselves to the chase work in the previous sprint stages. Expect to see Laurent Mangel and Lawson Craddock, Chad Haga or Tobias Ludvigsson spent most of the stage on the front of the peloton to keep the break under control.

 

As it is a circuit race, there won’t be many surprises when it comes to the wind and the riders will quickly learn where they need to stay attentive and whether there is any danger at all. As it won’t be very windy, there won’t be too much stress but the big teams still want to stay near the front. If there is any kind of danger, the sprint teams will get some help from as the battle for position means that the early break will come back almost automatically. Otherwise they have to keep chasing until the fight gets intense inside the final 15km.

 

Towards the end of a grand tour, early breaks are often a bit harder to catch and sometimes they manage to create a surprise. In such an easy stage, however, that is unlikely to happen and all is set for a sprint finish in Logrono.

 

The sprint is characterized by the fact that the finishing straight is long and wide. This means that positioning is less important as the risk of getting boxed in is not very big. Furthermore, it suits the really powerful sprinters that can do a long sprint.

 

The first sprint stages have revealed that two sprinters are in a class of their own in this race. Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb have both won two stages and it will be a great surprise if tomorrow’s winner is not one of those two riders. Both have a good reason to be optimistic as they have been pretty close in their previous sprint battles. On paper, this sprint suits Degenkolb a bit better than Bouhanni who prefers it to be more technical.

 

The pair first clashed in stage 2 where Degenkolb was out of position but actually did the fastest sprint of all despite finishing second behind Bouhanni. In stage 5, Degenkolb did a long sprint but Bouhanni seemed to have the power to pass him. However, he made a mistake by trying to slip past on the right-hand side where there was no room and he had to settle for second.

 

Finally, they sprinted against each other last Saturday on the windy stage to Albacete. Here Bouhanni took the win after having done a long sprint into the headwind. Degenkolb was not even close to his rival but he had spent a lot of energy when he had to rejoin the peloton after missing a split in the wind and was clearly fatigued in the finale.

 

The sprint should be a close one but Bouhanni stands out as the man to beat. The Frenchman has only been beaten by Degenkolb once and in that stage, he seemed to have the legs to pass the German. His sprint in stage 8 was extremely impressive. He launched his sprint already 300m from the line despite the strong headwind and even though Michael Matthews came close in the end, he managed to hold off several world class sprinters despite riding in the wind for a long time. This indicates just how fast Bouhanni is and currently he is probably the fastest rider in the bunch.

 

The long finishing straight may not suit him perfectly but he knows how to time his moves. Furthermore, he is excellent at positioning himself and only needs to Geoffrey Soupe to protect him from the wind in the finale. Giant-Shimano are expected to dominate the final few kilometres and it will be no surprise if Bouhanni finds himself on Degenkolb’s wheel when the sprint is launched. Then it all comes down to speed and the first sprints indicate that Bouhanni is hard to beat in a head-to-head battle.

 

However, Degenkolb should be pretty close to his French rival and he will not have forgotten that he actually seemed to be faster than Bouhanni in stage 2. Degenkolb’s main asset is his strong lead-out train which should make sure that he starts the sprint from the perfect position. Due to the tricky finale in stage 2 and the windy conditions in the previous sprint stages, the team has not yet had the chance to prove how strong they are but with Nikias Arndt, Ramon Sinkeldam and finally Koen De Kort, they should be able to dominate the finale.

 

Degenkolb excels on such a long finishing straight and he can maintain his top speed for a long time. A tailwind sprint would have been better for him but with a strong lead-out, he definitely has a chance of beating Bouhanni.

 

As said, Andrea Guardini has not yet had a chance to sprint in this race and he will be eager to make the most of this opportunity. He went into the race on the back of formidable showings in the Eneco Tour and the Tour of Denmark and in this race, he has been climbing better than ever before.

 

Guardini crashed a few days ago and suffered a lot in the mountain stage last Sunday. However, he doesn’t seem to be hampered too much by his injuries and he is still in good condition. He is perfectly suited to this kind of sprint where he can make use of his impressive top speed.

 

In the past, Guardini has often been hampered by poor positioning skills that have made it impossible for him to even launch his sprint. He has improved a lot in that area and with Alexey Lutsenko and Jacopo Guarnieri at his side, he has a really solid lead-out train. The wide finishing straight means that he is less likely to get boxed in and if he gets a clear run to the line, he has the speed to win.

 

Michael Matthews is not a pure sprinter and he will have a hard time beating the likes of Degenkolb and Bouhanni in this kind of stage. In stage 8, he got close to Bouhanni but that was mostly due to the fact that the sprint came at the end of a very hard stage. Tomorrow is likely to be a lot easier and this will make things complicated for Matthews. However, he has a very strong lead-out train with Brett Lancaster and Mitch Docker and they may be strong enough to cause some trouble for Giant-Shimano. If they manage to deliver Matthews in the perfect position, he may create a surprise.

 

Roberto Ferrari seems to be riding really well at the moment. He has made all the splits in the crosswinds and in the opening sprint stage, he was third. He prefers a more technical finale and this long finishing straight is not tailor-made for him. On the other hand, he is excellent at positioning himself and if he finds himself on Degenkolb’s wheel at the end of the Giant train, he may have the speed to pass the German.

 

Tom Boonen has not had a lot of success in the sprint. In stage 8, he was given the perfect lead-out but faded as soon as he hit the wind. However, this sprint suits him really well and he will be eager to show that he deserves to lead Belgium at the World Championships. Nikolas Maes is a very powerful lead-out man and Boonen loves these power sprints too. He may not be fast enough to beat the best but a podium spot is within his reach.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Matteo Pelucchi has not had an awful lot of luck in the race so far but this stage is maybe his best chance in the entire race. The Italian is very fast but rarely gets the chance to shine due to poor positioning. The wide finishing straight should allow him to find an opening and an in-form Vicente Reynes should help him find a good spot in the finale. If he is not too far back when he launches his sprint, he has the speed to take a surprise win.

 

Jens Debusschere has not been at his best in this race and he suffered in the crosswinds on stage 8. Tomorrow’s easier stage may suit him a bit better and he will be eager to finally show how fast he is. Earlier this year he has been sprinting excellently and with Greg Henderson at his side, he has one of the best lead-out men in the business. He may not win the stage but he has the speed to finish on the podium.

 

With two fourth places, Jasper Stuyven has had a breakthrough in this race. He would have preferred a harder race to really excel but he is surrounded by a formidable team that has the strength to position him for the sprint. There are definitely faster riders than the young Belgian who is no pure sprinter but positioning may take him far in a sprint that doesn’t suit him perfectly.

 

In stage 8, Peter Sagan finally showed signs of life and we should see him go for a stage win in the final two weeks of the race. He is unlikely to take any risks in this kind of stage where he is unlikely to win and he will probably ride in support of Oscar Gatto or Guillaume Boivin. Friday’s stage suits him a lot better but he may decide to give it a go tomorrow too. He is not as fast as Bouhanni and Degenkolb but he is excellent at positioning himself. If the faster riders mistime their sprint, he may have the speed to come around them.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Other winner candidates: John Degenkolb, Andrea Guardini

Outsiders: Michael Matthews, Roberto Ferrari, Tom Boonen

Jokers: Matteo Pelucchi, Jens Debusschere, Jasper Stuyven, Peter Sagan