The GC riders are readying themselves for the three hard mountain stages in the weekend but before they can fully focus on the upcoming challenges, they need to get safely through a tricky, unpredictable stage. Three climbs in the second half and a short, steep ramp inside the final 3km mean that stage 13 has a bit of everything and it is an open question whether BMC and Orica-GreenEDGE will try to keep it together for a finale for the puncheurs or whether a strong breakaway will get the chance to go for glory in the scenic Parque de Cabarceno.

 

The course

After a completely flat day, it is back into hillier terrain for stage 13 which could offer the fast puncheurs, the strongest sprinters or a breakaway a chance to shine before the race heads into its most important block of mountain stages. The stage brings the riders over 188.7km from Belorado to the Parque de Cabarceno in Obregon close to Santander and the coast west of the Basque Country.

 

The starting city is located on the windy plains between Burgos and Logrono and so the first part of the stage is very similar to the previous day’s racing. The roads are completely flat as the riders travel in a northwesterly direction towards the coast where the terrain is significantly hillier. The first intermediate sprint comes at the 93km marks and signals the start of the climbing as the riders hit the category 3 Alto Estacas de Trueba (11.1km, 3%) just 6km further up the road.

 

After the top, the riders take on a long descent down from the plateau before taking on the category 3 Puerto de la Braguia (6km, 6%) and the category 2 Aldo del Caracol (10.5km, 5.5%) in quick succession. According to the roadbook, both climbs are pretty regular and not too steep but the Vuelta is always full of surprises. The latter summits 37.2km from the finish and they mostly consist of a descent and flat roads towards the finish near the coast, with the final intermediate sprint coming just 9.7km from the line.

 

The finale, however, is very tricky. With 3km to go, the riders make a right-hand turn to enter the Parque de Cabarceno and after 600 slightly rising metres, they hit the bottom of a short climb. It’s around 750m long and has a gradient above 5% all the time, with three sections of more than 10%. The steepest point comes near the summit where the gradient touches 14%.

 

Just after the top, the riders turn right and head along slightly descending roads to the flamme rouge where a left-hand turn leads onto slightly ascending roads. There’s a right-hand turn 250m from the line and frm there it is slightly downhill to the finish.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The last few days have offered perfect weather for bike racing and tomorrow the riders can again expect beautiful conditions. It will be another day with bright sunshine but as they get closer to the coast, it will be slightly colder than it has been in recent days. The temperature at the finish is expected to reach a maximum of 25 degrees.

 

It will be a bit windier than it has been in the last few stages as there will be a moderate northeasterly wind which will freshen a bit towards the end of the stage. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind for most of the day before turning into a crosswind for the first two climbs. Then it is back into a cross-headwind before they turn into a tailwind 15km from the finish. When they enter the park, they will turn into a headwind which will make it harder to make a difference on the final climb.

 

The favourites

For the non-climbers, there aren’t many opportunities left in this year’s Vuelta a Espana. The final three stages before the next rest day are all big mountain stages and the final five stages offer another two summit finishes, a time trial and a sprint stage. This leaves just two opportunities for the big group of riders that aren’t specialists in the climbing, time trialling and sprinting disciplines.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is one of those opportunities and so half the peloton will have red-circled this stage as the day to join the early breakaway. The terrain and the finale mean that this is not a stage for the sprinters and of course it is not one for the GC riders either. Hence, they hope that it won’t be too firmly controlled and a lot of riders will fancy their chances in a finale that is not too hard.

 

This means that the stage could be one of the fastest of the entire race. There may mainly be a cross-headwind which will of course slow things down but it will be one of those days when it takes a long time for the early break to form. Almost all teams want to join the early break and so the first hour of the race is set to be extremely aggressive. Even though the terrain is flat, it will be very hard for any team to control what should be a fierce start to the race.

 

Two teams form the key to finding out what’s going to happen in this stage. While most teams want to go on the attack, Orica-GreenEDGE and BMC may have different plans. On paper, the finale is tailor-made for Michael Matthews and the fast Australian would love to give it a go in this stage. Orica-GreenEDGE have mostly been focusing on Johan Esteban Chaves in the last week but the Colombian is no longer a genuine top 10 candidate. Even though they constantly underline the importance of supporting their young Colombian fully in his GC campaign, they must also be targeting more stage wins. This stage is probably their best opportunity in the final part of the race.

 

BMC have focused all their efforts on Samuel Sanchez and the GC but have done nothing to hide that they also want to win a stage with Philippe Gilbert. In reality, the Belgian only has two options left and tomorrow’s stage is definitely his best chance. As he was suffering in the heat in the first part of the race, he missed out on some of his best opportunities and if he wants to test himself before the World Championships and convince Belgian national coach Carlo Bomans that he deserves a captaincy role in Ponferrada later this month, he needs to make the most of tomorrow’s stage.

 

The main question is whether Orica-GreenEDGE and BMC will commit the forces that are needed to control this kind of stage. As said, the first part will be very aggressive and it won’t be easy to chase in the second half which is always up or down. They may both enter the stage with a dual plan that includes aggressive riding in the first part of the stage and then they will take stock of the situation when the break has finally taken off.

 

If they decide bring it back, they may get some help from some of the teams that have missed the move. For many teams, this is one of only two chances to win a stage and if they have missed out, they may try to reopen the race. That means that the key teams may get some unexpected assistance from squads that do not have a genuine stage winner candidate.

 

It will be interesting to see how many riders will survive the three categorized climbs. Orica-GreenEDGE will probably not try to create a selection but BMC will probably set a decent tempo to try to make things as hard as possible for the faster riders. If it is fast, the climbing is definitely too hard for a rider like Nacer Bouhanni and all the pure sprinters and it may even cause troubles for John Degenkolb and Matthews. With a headwind, however, they should be able to cope with the challenge and are likely to be in contention when the peloton crests the summit with 37km to go.

 

The final short climb is pretty hard but the final 1.5km are mostly flat which means that there is time to get back into position after the top. Furthermore, there will be a headwind which will make it harder for attackers to stay away and easier for the sprinters to hang onto the wheels. It also means that the GC riders will probably only ride attentively near the front to avoid any unexpected splits as there is no point in launching a futile attack into the headwind.

 

In theory, there are three possible outcomes of this stage. If a strong break gets clear and BMC and Orica-GreenEDGE decide not to bring it back, it could be a day for the escapees. If things get back together, it could come down to a sprint finish from a reduced peloton on the flat roads to the finish. However, it will be hard to control the stage after the top of the short climb as domestique resources may be limited. Matthews could easily find himself pretty isolated and this opens the door for attacks. However, BMC have a pretty powerful team to control the situation and should be strong enough to set up a sprint finish but no one can rule out that an attacker will get clear in the flat section and stay away.

 

We expect Philippe Gilbert to be pretty focused on this stage and so we expect BMC to try to take control. As Orica-GreenEDGE may lend a hand, the most likely outcome is that the early break will be caught and so it will come down to a battle between the puncheurs and strong sprinters.

 

In this case, Michael Matthews is the obvious favourite. In stage 3, the Australian proved how strong he is in this kind of finish and this one suits him even better. While he had to dig deep to stay with the climbers in stage 3 and pass them in an uphill sprint, the flat finish means that the racing will probably be a little less aggressive. He is very hard to drop on a short 1km climb and among the riders that can survive such a ramp, he is usually one of the fastest.

 

His main challenge will be to control the final 1.5km but as said, BMC may lend him a hand. Furthermore, he needs to survive the late climbs and that may be a bit of a hurdle. If the peloton goes full gas, it could be a tough ask for him. Recall that he was nearly dropped in stage 4 but these climbs should be easier than they were in that stage. However, there is a chance that Matthews won’t be able to follow the best. While he is very strong on short, steep climbs, the sustained effort on a 10km climb may be a bit too much for him.

 

At this point in a grand tour, freshness is very important and Matthews seems to still have lots of energy left. He did a decent time trial and was climbing well yesterday. If he survives the three final climbs, he will be the big favourite to win the stage.

 

For Philippe Gilbert, this stage is a very big test for the Worlds and he knows that the stage has to be made hard to tire out Matthews. It would be no surprise to see BMC riding tempo on the categorized climbs and try to make the race explode on the final ramp. Cadel Evans and Dominik Nerz will both be very useful domestiques for this job and he is generally surrounded by a very strong team.

 

Of course Matthews is faster in a flat sprint but at the end of a hard race, things may be different. In the Brabantse Pijl, Gilbert beat the Australian in the flat sprint at the top of the Schavei climb, proving that he is fast enough to get the better of Matthews if the circumstances are right. Last year Gilbert won a Vuelta stage and tomorrow he will do his utmost to do it again.

 

The dark horse is of course Peter Sagan. The Slovakian has been using this race to prepare for the World Championships and has clearly been far from his best level. However, he has made it clear that he will try to win a stage in the second half of the race and test his form for his main objective. Tomorrow’s finale is tailor-made for him and it may finally be time for him to give it a real go after he first tested his legs in the windy stage 8.

 

Sagan’s condition is a bit unknown. He seemed to suffer a lot yesterday but on his Twitter account he made it clear that he was feeling fine. In this kind of finale he is usually very hard to beat. He is impossible to drop on such a short ramp and he is usually faster than both Matthews and Gilbert in a flat sprint. His main challenge may be to survive the three climbs but if he really wants to be a Worlds contender, his condition cannot be too far away. At 100%, he would have had no trouble but now it is more of a question mark. If he gives it a go, however, he will be one of the favourites.

 

In stage 3, the final ramp was too hard for John Degenkolb who was unable to keep up with the best and fell completely off the pace after having hit the climb in the front positions. This finale should suit him a bit better as the finish is flat and there will be time to recover after the climb. He has been climbing excellently in this race and on the longer ascents, he has actually been stronger than Matthews. Hence, he will have a good chance of surviving the climbs and his main challenge will be to stay in contention in the finale. He may drift a bit backwards on the ramp but there will be time to recover and get back into position. The effort may have taken the sting out of his legs but on paper, he should be faster than both Sagan and Matthews.

 

With 3 mountain stages coming up, Movistar won’t do anything to bring things back together for a bunch sprint but if it comes down to a sprint, Alejandro Valverde may give it a go. The Spaniard rarely mixes it up in this kind of finales but with 10 bonus seconds on the line, it would be a missed opportunity not to try. The Spaniard is very fast in this kind of sprint and even though they likes of Matthews and Sagan may be slightly faster, things could be different when the sprint comes at the end of such a difficult finale. Valverde has often proved that he is faster than Gilbert in a flat sprint and if he gives it a go, he will be one of the favourites.

 

The same can be said for Daniel Martin. The Irishman is riding for GC and would love to pick up 10 bonus seconds. He is very fast in a sprint and even though he would have preferred the finishing straight to be uphill, this stage suits him really well. In stages 3 and 7, he has shown that he will take every opportunity to go for a sprint and if tomorrow’s stage has been a bit selective, he may try his hand again.

 

Lloyd Mondory is mostly known as a sprinter but he is much more versatile than most fast finishers. He put those skills on show when he finished in the top 10 in stage 3 which was mostly dominated by GC riders. He may not be able to mix it up with the very best on the climb but he will not be far off. The flat finish suits him well as he will have time to recover and on paper he should be one of the fastest. The Frenchman could also try his hand in a breakaway and so has more options.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Filippo Pozzato wants to use this race to convince Davide Cassani that he deserves a spot on the Italian roster for the World Championships. The Lampre-Merida rider may have had a poor season so far but in this race he actually seems to be riding pretty well. He has been climbing decently and this finale suits him down to the ground.

 

There are definitely punchier riders than Pozzato for the final ramp but the flat finish should suit him. In last year’s GP Plouay he proved how fast he is at the end of a hard race and there is no chance that this stage is one of his big goals. He may also go on the attack and is a good pick both from a breakaway or from a sprint finish.

 

The same can be said about Paul Martens. The German excels in uphill sprint as he proved when he finished 5th in stage 3 and this finale is another good one for him. He would probably have preferred the finishing straight to be uphill but he is also pretty fast in a flat sprint. It will be hard for him to beat the faster guys and so his best chance may come from a breakaway. Belkin have made it clear that they want to ride aggressively and their best chance could be their fast German.

 

Alexandr Kolobnev has been riding really well in this race but the Katusha rider has mostly been working for Joaquim Rodriguez. However, Katusha have clearly indicated that they want to join the breaks too, also to stay in contention for the teams classification. This stage suits Kolobnev very well as he excels on short, steep climbs and has a very fast sprint. If he joins the right break, he will be one of the favourites and he may even give it a go in a sprint too.

 

Another good breakaway pick is Pieter Serry who is riding excellently well at the moment. On the long climbs, he has been able to stay with the best but his best terrain is the medium mountains. That’s what he will find in tomorrow’s stage and there is no doubt that Omega Pharma-Quick Step want to be part of the action. Serry has a pretty fast sprint and this finale suits him down to the ground.

 

Another good breakaway pick is Rinaldo Nocentini. The Ag2r rider didn’t seem to be at his best in the first part of the race but now his legs have started to come around. He is very strong at picking the right break and excels in this kind of finale. As an Ardennes specialist, he is hard to drop on short, steep ramps and he has a decent sprint to finish it off.

 

Tanel Kangert and Alessandro De Marchi are both strong rouleurs and climbers who excel in this kind of terrain. None of them are fast finishers but in this kind of finale, it may be more about legs than sprinting skills. De Marchi has already won one stage and will be keen to take another one while Kangert has had to forget about his GC ambitions to focus on supporting Fabio Aru and stage wins. However, the Estonian seems to be getting better and better and should be able to excel in this kind of stage.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michael Matthews

Other winner candidates: Philippe Gilbert, Peter Sagan

Outsiders: John Degenkolb, Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Martin, Lloyd Mondory

Jokers: Filippo Pozzato, Paul Martens, Alexandr Kolobnev, Rinaldo Nocentini, Tanel Kangert, Alessandro De Marchi, Cadel Evans (all from breakaways), Nacer Bouhanni, Vicente Reynes, Kristian Sbaragli