In the last few years, the Vuelta a Espana has mainly been decided in three consecutive mountain stages and this year it will be no different. The triptych of Asturian mountain stages kicks off with a very tough stage and even though the final climb is not very long, gradients of up to 19.5% will make create time differences that will give a further indication of who’s going to finish on the podium in the final grand tour of the season.

 

The course

The Vuelta a Espana organizers have introduced a tradition that sees them host three consecutive mountain stages in the penultimate weekend of the race. This will be the case in 2014 as well and the three days in the Asturian mountains form the most important block of racing that will go a long way in determining the overall classification ahead of the final week which is not overly tough.

 

The first stage in the triptych brings the riders over 200.7km from the coastal city Santander near yesterday’s finish in a southwesterly direction to a mountaintop finish on La Camperona in the Asturian mountains. The first part of the stage is pretty easy as it brings the riders along slightly undulating roads, with the only challenge being the category 2 Collada de la Hoz (7.1km, 6.0%). The first intermediate sprint comes after 35.7km of racing.

 

The climbing starts for real at the 110km mark when the riders hit the bottom of the category 1 Puerto de San Glorio (20.9km, 5.8%, max. 11.67%) which brings them back onto the plateau they left one day earlier. It’s a pretty mixed climb with an easy start and then several 7-8% sections interspersed with easier parts that give room for recovery. The climb gets a bit steeper near the top.

 

After the summit, there is a very short descent before the riders hit the flat plains that can be pretty windy. They will contest the final intermediate sprint at the 159.6km mark while they prepare for the brutal final category 1 climb that leads to the finish. At just 8.3km, it is pretty short and the average gradient is just 7.5%. However, one shouldn’t be fooled by the numbers as the ascent can be split into two. The first four kilometres are very easy with a gradient of 2-4% and lead to a slightly harder section at 6-8%. However, the real challenge is the brutal final 2km. The gradient stays above the 14% mark and even includes sections of 19.5% before the road flattens slightly for the final 500m which have a gradient of around 8%. The finale is non-technical as a few turns lead to the final kilometre in which the road just bends very slightly to the right.

 

The final climb has not been used in previous editions of the race but the penultimate climb was the scene of Alberto Contador’s big coup in 2012 when he dethroned Joaquim Rodriguez on his way to the finish in Fuente De.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Bad weather is forecasted for the final two days in the Asturian mountains but they will get one final day in the sunshine before things get worse. Tomorrow will be a perfect day for a bike race as there will be bright sunshine and a maximum temperature at the bottom of the final climb of 24 degrees. A few clouds may appear towards the end of the stage, signaling the start of the bad weather that is forecasted for Sunday’s stage.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a headwind almost all day. In the run-in to the final climb, the riders will hit a crosswind before they turn into a cross-headwind in the final few kilometres leading to the bottom. On the ascent itself, there will mostly be a cross-tailwind.

 

The favourites

There may be another big mountain stage and a short time trial in the final week of the race but when the riders reach the second rest day, most of the GC will probably have been decided. In recent year, the triptych of consecutive mountaintop finishes in the third week of the race have played a crucial role in determining the overall winner and with a slightly easier third week than usual, they will again have a massive impact.

 

There is no doubt that Monday’s stage is the big one and the day when the biggest differences can be made. Sunday’s climb to Lagos De Covadonga is a famous one and may also provide some separation. Tomorrow’s stage may be the one that creates the smallest time gap as the final is really just about 2km long.

 

That will take nothing away from the spectacle though. Those final two kilometres are brutally steep but the stage is more suited to the punchy guys than the pure climbers. The less explosive riders will struggle on this kind of climb while the likes of Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde will excel.

 

As the stage is the first in a series of mountain stages, lots of riders and teams will be a bit cautious. They all know that they need to save energy for the upcoming stages too and they will be reluctant to ask the domestiques to do too much. This is a big advantage for attackers and very often the opening stage of the triptych has been won from a breakaway. That’s what happened last year when Daniele Ratto took a solo win on a brutally cold day.

 

This means that this could very well be a day for a breakaway and lots of riders will be keen to go on the attack. Hence, we can expect another example of those frantic starts where it takes very long time for the early break to get clear. The flat start means that lots of riders have a chance of making the right move and it will be a bit of a lottery that determines who will eventually be present in the break.

 

The key to the dynamics of the stage is again Katusha. This stage has Joaquim Rodriguez written all over it as the final climb suits him down to the ground. It is definitely his best chance to win a stage and – more importantly – score 10 important bonus seconds.

 

Rodriguez knows that he needs to start taking back time if he wants to reach his big objective which is to finally win a grand tour. This means that he simply can’t allow himself to let the 10 bonus seconds slip away and we expect Katusha to take control of the stage.

 

The Russian team has already done a lot of work in the mountain stages as they also kept things together last Wednesday. In stage 9, they had actually planned to do the same but here the start was so fast and chaotic that it proved to be impossible.

 

The flat start means that things should be slightly easier but there are no guarantees that they will be able to avoid a big, strong group getting clear. In that case, they may throw in the towel and try to put a rider in the break instead.

 

Movistar may also be keen to win this stage but the Spanish team is usually riding pretty defensively in the Vuelta. Until now, they have done nothing to chase down early breaks and Alejandro Valverde has been keen to stress that he wants to save his teammates as much as possible. Instead, they will probably try to put a rider in the break to defend their position in the teams classification.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo will be pleased to see a break stay away in a stage that doesn’t suit Alberto Contador too well and so the dynamics of the stage will be determined by Katusha. They may get some assistance from Garmin-Sharp who haven’t won a stage yet as this finale is suited to Daniel Martin.

 

Katusha is one of the strongest teams in this race and we expect them to be strong enough to bring it back together. Hence, the stage should be won by a GC rider but a breakaway win remains a possibility.

 

With the long, flat section in the second half, it will all come down to the final climb but the riders need to stay attentive in the finale. It will be pretty windy and a few kilometres before the bottom, the riders turn into a crosswind. As the fight for position will be fierce, the pace will be very fast and splits could occur even before the riders have hit the climb.

 

As said, the stage is perfectly suited to Rodriguez and the Spaniard is our favourite to take the win. He may not be as strong as he was two years ago but he has clearly proved that he is one of the best climbers in the race. In stage 6, he had the best punch of all the GC riders and if he had timed his acceleration a bit better, he would probably have won the stage. In stage 9, he showed his strength when he reeled Alberto Contador in just before the line.

 

When he is at 100%, no one is able to beat Rodriguez on short, steep ramps and with in-form Giampaolo Caruso and Daniel Moreno at his side, he has a formidable train to set him up for the win. Contador may be able to hang onto his wheel but we doubt that he has the explosiveness to pass Rodriguez who is out favourite to win the stage.

 

However, we won’t rule out Contador. The Spaniard has proved that he is the best climber in the race and even though this finale is a bit too explosive to suit him perfectly, he has done well on short, steep ramps in the past. He may not have Rodriguez’ punch but if he attacks from a bit further out, he may be able to drop his rivals.

 

It remains to be seen how he approaches this stage. Two days ago he clearly rode defensively as there was a strong headwind. He may be a bit afraid of Rodriguez’ and Valverde’s explosiveness and this could prompt him to ride conservatively. On the other hand, the best strategy may be to take the stings out of their legs by attacking from afar.

 

Another rider that excels in these finishes is Alejandro Valverde. He may struggle a bit in Sunday’s and Monday’s stages which offer long climbs but on a short, steep climb he is usually very hard to beat. It was no coincidence that he won in La Zubia on stage 6 and that he won Fleche Wallonne earlier this year.

 

Today Valverde claimed that his legs felt great and he hopes to have a similar feeling tomorrow. Until now, he has only had one bad day – in the cold on stage 9 – and has appeared to be mostly at ease. In stage 6 he even managed to respond to Rodriguez’ furious attacks and if he has the same legs tomorrow, he could take another win.

 

Two days ago Fabio Aru proved that his Giro performance was no coincidence. He definitely benefited from the tactical battle but Rodriguez revealed that his attack had been so strong that the Katusha leader was unable to follow him. This final climb may be a bit too explosive for Aru but he is clearly very close to the best. If the main favourites look at each other, Aru may again be the one to benefit.

 

Chris Froome is the big mystery of this race. The Brit is far from his Tour de France level but a combination of stubbornness and a great pacing strategy saw him lose no time two days ago. This finale is a bit too explosive to suit him perfectly but don’t be fooled by the Brit in such a finale. He has won on La Planche des Belles Filles and Pena Cabarga in the past and is actually more explosive than one would suggest. At the moment, he doesn’t have the level to follow the best but as his condition could easily improve throughout the race, it is too early to write him completely off.

 

This stage is perfectly suited to Daniel Martin who has proved that he is one of the strongest climbers in this race. He may not be at Contador’s, Valverde’s and Rodriguez’ level but he is not far off. Two days ago he rode a big part of the final climb alone in the headwind and still managed to finish the stage close to the best. This finish should suit him a lot better and if the favourites look at each other, he may launch the decisive attack.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. As said, this stage could be one for a breakaway if Katusha decide to save energy for later. As the early part is flat, a lot of riders can make it into the break but only a select few are strong enough to finish it off in this kind of finish.

 

Przemyslaw Niemiec went into the race hoping to ride for GC but the Pole has not been at his best. However, he has been improving over the last few days and passed several riders on the finishing climb two days ago. The finale is too explosive to suit him perfectly but if he joins the break, he is likely to be one of the strongest climbers.

 

With Froome not being at 100%, the door is open for the Sky riders to go on the attack. Dario Cataldo got his race off to a poor start but now he is riding really strongly. The Italian is an excellent rouleur who knows how to join the right breakaway, and this could pay off in the flat start. He is actually pretty explosive too and the final climb doesn’t suit him too badly even though he would have preferred to be less steep. If he joins the break, he will be a danger man.

 

Cadel Evans has been one of the mysteries in this race. He did a great time trial and looked strong in stage 3 but in the high mountains, he has suffered. However, the form cannot be too bad and he has a vast experience that could allow him to join the early break. He is great on short, steep ramps and if he joins the right group he will be one of the favourites.

 

We have already pointed to Pieter Serry several times and today we will do so again. The Belgian is riding really well and Omega Pharma-Quick Step have proved that they are keen to attack. While he usually suffers a bit on the longer climbs, he is great on the shorter ones and even though he would have preferred the final climb to be less steep, he will be hard to beat if he joins the right break.

 

South African champion Louis Meintjes has been climbing solidly in this race. His main challenge will be to join the break in the flat start as he is not very strong in that terrain and lacks lots of experience. However, he is very strong in this kind of finish and if he makes it into the break, he could take a breakthrough win.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Joaquim Rodriguez

Other winner candidates: Alberto Contador, Alejandro Valverde

Outsiders: Fabio Aru, Chris Froome, Daniel Martin

Jokers: Przemyslaw Niemiec, Dario Cataldo, Cadel Evans, Pieter Serry, Louis Meintjes