The brutal Camperona climb has left some tired legs in the Vuelta a Espana but there will be no time to rest. The triptych of stages in the Asturian mountains continues with a Vuelta a Espana classic when the riders tackle the famous climb to Lagos De Covadonga. History shows that an early escapee often excels on the famous slopes but in any case, the brutal slopes are set to create big differences between the overall contenders.

 

The course

The second chapter in the mountain triptych that the Vuelta usually has in its penultimate weekend, is a real Vuelta a Espana classic. While the Giro and Tour are loaded with mythical climbs that have been visited time after time, the Vuelta has less historical ascents. One of the few is the Lagos de Covadonga that has been climbed several times and is a place where most riders would love to win.

 

This year the climb is back after a one-year absence and the stage will be very similar to a classic Covadonga stage in the sense that it is a mostly flat affair that culminates with the final ascent. The stage will bring the riders over just 152.2km from the start in Oviedo to the finish at the top of the climb. From the start, the riders head straight to the coast and the first part consists of a long run along the seafront on typical, rolling coastal roads. The main highlights are the intermediate sprints that come at the 55 and 97.4km marks respectively.

 

The climbing starts at the 109km mark when the riders turn right to leave the coast and go up the category 2 Puerto del Torno (7.2km, 8.2%). The descent is interrupted by several small climbs and leads to the bottom of the final 12.2km ascent which is the first HC category climb of the race. The average gradient is just 7.2% but the numbers are deceptive as the final 3km include two small descents. The first 9km are very tough as the gradient hovers between 7% and 14%, with several two-digit sections and no room for recovery. The final 3km are s lot easier as a small descent leads to the final 2km which have a gradient of 7-10% while the final 1.2km are slightly downhill. However, there is a steep 17.5% ramp of around 100m that leads to the finish. The finale is not very technical as the road just bends slightly to the left in the final kilometre before the riders reach the final right-hand turn just 200m from the line.

 

Lagos De Covadonga was last visited in 2012 when Antonio Piedra emerged as the strongest from a breakaway while Alberto Contador made repeated attempts to distance Joaquim Rodriguez but failed to do so. In 2010 Carlos Barredo won from a breakaway while Vincenzo Nibali lost a bit of ground to key rival Ezequiel Mosquera in the finale. In 2007, the stage was the first big mountain stage of the race and it was Vladimir Efimkin who was a surprise survivor from a long breakaway and took both the stage win and the leader’s jersey. The other three winners in this millennium are Eladio Jimenez, Juan Miguel Mercado and Andrei Zintchenko who won in 2005, 2001 and 2000 respectively.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

For some reason, the weather is usually bad in the stage to Lagos de Covadonga and even though the riders won’t have to tackle the stage under torrential rain, they will have far from ideal conditions. It will be a cloudy day and even though the sun may peak through at some points, there is a constant risk of showers.  The temperature at the bottom of the final climb will reach a maximum of 23 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will first have a headwind before they turn into a cross-headwind then they reach the coast. There will be a tailwind on the first and then the riders turn into a crosswind for the final run-in to the final climb. There will be a crosswind almost all the way up the ascent but the final 2km will mostly be with a cross-headwind.

 

The favourites

Chris Froome bounced back with a great ride in today’s stage to confirm that he is still a potential overall winner of the race. On a climb that is better suited to guys like Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde, he rode extremely wisely to gauge his efforts perfectly and time trialed his way back to the front before launching one of his trademark attacks.

 

In the end, his time gains were small but the result should not be underestimated. From a psychological point of view, it was extremely important and his rivals may not regret that they rode pretty defensively in stage 11 where they had the chance to really distance the Brit. Froome is still clearly not at 100% and he needs to take back a lot of time in the remaining mountain stages and the final time trial but his resurgence may have changed the dynamics of the race.

 

The Lagos de Covadonga stage has often been won by an early escape. In recent years, it has usually come in the middle of the mountain triptych in the penultimate weekend, with the queen stage coming one day later. This has often prompted the GC teams to save energy for the bigger battle and so the breakaway has been allowed to stay away.

 

With Froome now seriously back in contention and Contador showing signs of weakness, more teams may now try to take control of the situation. Today only Omega Pharma-Quick Step and briefly Astana showed any interest in bringing back the break and Movistar and Katusha both decided to join the group. The stage will still be very hard to control but tomorrow a number of teams may be more interested in bringing the bonus seconds into play.

 

Of course they all still need to save energy for Monday and the breakaway definitely has a chance. Like today we can expect a very fast start to the stage as lots of riders know that this stage has often been won by escapees. It will probably take a long time for the break to go clear and like today, a big group could easily take off at the end of more than an hour of fast racing.

 

The terrain is pretty flat which should make it easier for the GC teams to control the situation but as today’s stage proved, it may still be impossible. If a big, strong group gets clear, it may be too much of a task to bring it back together and so Monday’s stage may prompt the teams to let the stage win slip away. If the group is small, however, we expect this stage to be one for the GC riders.

 

The key teams are Sky and Katusha. Even though Froome was strong in today’s stage, his time gains were minimal. He is still far behind Contador in the overall standings as so he needs to bring the bonus seconds into play. His Sky team has been very strong and had 7 riders in the front group at the bottom of the final climb on today’s stage. If they decide to bring it back together for their captain, they will probably manage to do so.

 

Today Katusha may have made a big mistake as they didn’t try to bring back the break when Omega Pharma-Quick Step had brought them within reach. Rodriguez still believes that he can win the race but he is far behind Contador in the overall standings. Today he managed to drop Contador and that will have fuelled his desire to go for the stage win. Tomorrow’s climb doesn’t suit him as much as today’s but he simply can’t let too many bonus seconds slip away. The Russian team needs to try to bring it back together.

 

Again much will depend on the composition of the early breakaway but we expect Sky and Katusha to take control of the situation. For Froome to excel, the race needs to be a hard one as it will make the pace more regular on the final climb. Hence we expect Sky to set tempo on the penultimate climb which is pretty hard and then it will all come down to a battle between the favourites on the final climb. With the steep section coming pretty early, this is a stage where big time gains can be made and where the attacks can be made from pretty far out.

 

Today Froome benefited from the fact that he rode a much wiser race than his key rivals who all followed the attacks and blew up too early. Tomorrow the climb is less steep and the risk of blowing up is a lot smaller. Hence, Froome may have less of an advantage by using his new time trialing tactic but his form is clearly on the rise.

 

Tomorrow’s final climb suits him a lot better than today’s as it is less steep and much longer. He will probably use the same tactic as he did today and now his rivals may be a bit reluctant to launch early attacks. Even if they drop Froome, they know that he may time trial he was back to the front and that could have a huge impact on the race.

 

This may play into Froome’s favour as the climb may be more regular and then he can use his strong team to tap out a decent tempo. In the end, he may launch one of his furious accelerations and it would be no surprise if he manages to drop his rivals. At 100%, Froome is the best climber in the world and now he is getting better. We won’t be surprised if he manages to take a solo win. Even if it comes down to a sprint finish he has a solid chance as he is faster than Contador.

 

His biggest rival is of course Alberto Contador. Today the Spaniard showed surprising signs of weakness. His attacks didn’t make much of a difference and in the end he was unable to follow Froome. Tomorrow’s longer climb suits him a lot better but today’s poor result comes on the back of a below-par showing in stage 11 where he wasn’t his usual aggressive self.

 

Contador may now start to pay the prize for this lack of preparation and while Froome’s condition is on the rise, Contador’s seems to be on the decline. Furthermore, Contador can allow himself to ride defensively and as all his rivals are faster than him in a sprint, it may be hard for him to win the stage. However, the Spaniard is still riding very well and as he is better suited to tomorrow’s stage, things may be turned around. He has that aggressive mindset and if he sees a chance to attack, he will probably do so.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez managed to distance Contador and reel Froome in by launching one of his trademark accelerations but tomorrow’s stage isn’t tailor-made for him. Long, regular sections have often made the Spaniard suffer and even though he has improved a lot, he is still not at the level of Contador and Froome in that kind of finale.

 

Rodriguez is clearly riding really well but he is not at 100%. At his best, he would have left everybody else behind in today’s finale. Being unable to win today’s stage, he will have an even harder time dropping his rivals tomorrow. However, he has the benefit of being faster than Froome and Contador on the short, steep ramp to the finish.

 

Fabio Aru is clearly not far off the mark of the best climbers. Today the Italian fought valiantly in an explosive finale that didn’t suit him at all. Tomorrow he should be riding a lot better and he has the advantage of being a bit down on GC. If the winner candidates are unable to drop each other, Aru may launch one of his trademark attacks. While the favourites look at each, the Astana captain may ride away for another stage win.

 

Alejandro Valverde attacked too early in today’s stage but it came as no surprise that he was not at the Contador’s and Rodriguez’ level. At the end of a grand tour, the Spaniard is simply not able to match the best and he will probably have a harder time in tomorrow’s stage which suits him a lot less. He is excellent at limiting his losses but it will be hard to win the stage. However, you can never rule the Movistar rider out as he has the fastest sprint and may benefit from a tactical game.

 

Daniel Martin is riding really well and is not far behind the best climbers. The Irishman has proved that he is not afraid of attacking in the finale and if the favourites look at each other, he may do so again tomorrow. He is far behind the best on GC and won’t be too heavily marked. If he gets a gap, he will be very hard to catch.

 

Daniel Navarro took a surprise victory yesterday in a finale that was way too explosive for him. Today he was dropped very early but time trialed his way back to a decent finish. Tomorrow’s longer climb suits him a lot better and he should be closer to the best. Like Martin and Aru he could be the man to benefit from a tactical battle.

 

Finally, we will select some jokers that could win the stage from a breakaway. Mikel Landa came into this race with lofty GC ambitions but he has been unable to follow the best in the mountains. However, the Basque seems to be getting better and he will be keen to take a stage win in his home race. His main challenge will be to join the break in a flat opening part but if he makes it, he will be hard to beat on the final climb.

 

His teammate Tanel Kangert finds himself in a similar position. Like Landa, he seems to be getting better after a bad start took him out of GC contention. Kangert is both a good climber and a strong rouleur and should also excel in the opening part.

 

BMC missed the move in today’s stage but tomorrow they will be eager to make amends. There best chance to win the stage from a breakaway is probably Dominik Nerz who is riding really well. He has already made the right break once but that day the cold took the sting out of his legs. Since then he has bounced back with solid showings and he would be a good pick from a breakaway.

 

The same goes for Jerome Coppel who has all the skills to win this stage. He is a great climber and good on the flats which is needed to join the right break. His form is clearly growing and today he was very close to the GC riders in a finish that didn’t suit him. Look out for Coppel to try to take stage win number two for Cofidis.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Alberto Contador, Joaquim Rodriguez

Outsiders: Fabio Aru, Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Martin, Daniel Navarro

Jokers: Mikel Landa, Tanel Kangert, Dominik Nerz, Jerome Coppel