The last two stages have produced lots of drama but it should be nothing in comparison to what’s in store tomorrow. The queen stage sends the riders up 5 big climbs on the only really big mountain day with constant climb and comes to an exciting conclusion on the very steep climb to La Farrapona.

 

The course

The triptych of mountain stages comes to an end with the queen stage. The 160.5km stage from San Martin del Rey Aurelio to Lagos de Somiedo on the La Farrapona climb is the hardest of the entire race and is the only really big mountain stage with numerous well-known climbs from start to finish.

 

The stage takes place in the heart of the Asturian mountains just south of Oviedo and mainly bring the riders in a westerly direction on a course that zigzags its way through the terrain to include several big ascents. The hostilities start almost right from the start as 10.2km of slightly ascending valley roads lead to the bottom of the category 1 Alto de la Colladona (7.4km, 6.7%, max. 11.67%) which is a pretty regular affair with two steep section at the midpoint and near the top.

 

The descent leads to the only easy part of the stage where the riders travel along slightly descending valley roads until the hit the bottom of the category 2 Alto del Cordal (7.6km, 5.5%) after 61.8km of racing. The descent leads straight to the first intermediate sprint at the bottom of the category 1 Alto de la Cobertoria (10km, 8.8%, max. 16%) which is probably the hardest climb of the stage. After an easy start, the gradient barely drops below the 10% mark for most of the climb before the road flattens near the top.

 

After the descent, there is a short section in the valley where the riders will contest the final intermediate sprint before they start to climb the category 1 Puerto de San Lorenzo (10.1km, 8.5%, max. 13%). It is very similar to the previous climb in the sense that the first part is very easy but in the second half, the gradient stays above the 10% mark all the time. Another fast descent leads to the valley where the road is slightly ascending until the final category 1 climb officially starts at the 144km mark.

 

At 16.5km, it is the longest climb of the stage but its average gradient of 6.2% is not overly hard. Like the previous two climbs, however, it has slightly deceptive data as the first 11km are pretty easy with a gradient of around 5%, several flat sections and even a small descent. However, the final 5.5km are very tough as the gradient is constantly around 10% and in the final 2km, it is even steeper at 11.5-12%. The final 500m are a bit easier at a gradient of 8%. There are a number of switchbacks in the finale but the final one comes one kilometres from the line. From there, the road only bends very slightly to the left.

 

The climb was last used in 2011 when Rein Taaramae emerged as the strongest from an early breakaway while Juan Jose Cobo sent the first clear signal that he could win the race overall when he dropped all his rivals to finish second, gaining 20 seconds on Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders got a taste of the rainy conditions that are often found in the Asturian mountains but tomorrow things are likely to be better. After a very sunny start to the race, more clouds will appear towards the end of the stage and again there is a risk that the riders will have to do some of the stage under a shower. In the valley, there will be a maximum temperature of just 19 degrees, making it one of the coldest days yet.

 

There will barely be any wind, with a light breeze blowing from a westerly direction which means that the riders will mostly have a headwind. Towards the end of the stage, the direction will change and in the end the riders will face a northeasterly wind which means that they will have a crosswind in the finale, including on the final climb.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage failed to open any big time gaps between the podium contenders who again proved that they are fairly equally matched. Chris Froome’s resurgence wasn’t as impressive as some had expected but he benefited from the equal level of the three Spanish podium candidates to limit his losses.

 

If the trio had worked together, they could probably have send Froome almost out of podium contention but instead they were more afraid of each other. Contador made repeated attacks but Valverde and Rodriguez were both glued to his wheel and as he feared the inevitable counterattack, he was unwilling to draw them along to the final few kilometres where they could potentially launch one of the trademark accelerations. Hence, it ended almost as a status quo even though Contador lost a bit of ground in the sprint and Froome limited his losses, much to Contador’s regret.

 

The first mountain stages have been characterized by the fact that they have all come down to the final climb. There may have been hard climbs earlier in the stages but they have all come pretty far from the finishing climb or they haven’t been very tough. Tomorrow’s stage is the only one that offers hard climbing all day and it is the only really big mountain stage. That significantly changes the dynamics of the stage which will be a lot more complex than the first ones.

 

Such big mountain stages are very hard to control and often won by a strong breakaway. The fact that it starts with a tough category 1 climb means that a big, strong group of climbers is likely to ride away right from the beginning and it takes a very strong team to control the situation. Tinkoff-Saxo may have been strong in the flat stages but they have been vulnerable on the climbs and they will have a hard time avoiding getting on the back foot.

 

Movistar and Katusha both have lots of strong climbers and they will probably both try to send some of them on the attack. Tinkoff-Saxo will definitely have a similar plan as they fear that Contador can be isolated too early. Sky also have a very powerful climbing team and we can expect all four teams to have riders in the group that takes off.

 

In addition to the tactical battle, this stage presents a perfect chance to move up in the overall classification and the break is very likely to contain a few riders that are in the overall top 20. This means that the break cannot be given too much leeway and we can expect the stage to be pretty fast.

 

There is no doubt that Katusha, Sky and Movistar want to isolate Contador in this stage and so we expect them to up the pace pretty early, maybe already on the second climb. Today Movistar did a lot of damage on the first climb and at one point, Contador only had Oliver Zaugg at his side while Jesus Hernandez was suffering at the back. Later Sergio Paulinho rejoined the group but Katusha, Movistar and Sky are a lot stronger.

 

While the pace will probably be high on the second and third climb, the battle for the GC could come into play already on the penultimate climb. The valley section between the final two climbs is pretty short and this means that the stage is suitable for attacks from the distance. With riders up the road, we may see some of the GC riders try their hand at this early point and if Contador is isolated, he could be on the back foot. Many riders will remember how a similarly uncontrollable stage was enough to turn things around in the Dauphiné when Contador also had a weak team around him.

 

This will turn it into an unpredictable affair with lots of different scenarios all being possible. As the early break will include very strong climbers, it will be very hard to bring them back and there is a big chance that the stage winner will be one from the break. On the other hand, the pace could be really fast if Movistar and Katusha make a big plan with great team tactics and if that is the case, it may all come back together for the GC riders to decide the stage in a big battle on the final two climbs.

 

On the final climb, the first 11km are pretty easy but the final 5.5km can do some real damage. For the riders that are still together at the bottom, it will all come down that final section but as there is no room for recovery, the attacks can be launched from pretty far out.

 

As said, the stage could both be won by an attacker or a GC rider but we expect Movistar and Katusha to try to isolate Contador, the most likely scenario is that a GC rider will take the win. In that case, Alberto Contador must be the favourite. Today he was unable to drop both Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde but the stage clearly revealed that they are all fairly equally matched.

 

However, Contador’s main strength is his excellent recovery and he should really excel in what will be the third hard mountain stage in a row. Furthermore, he usually benefits from long, hard day in the saddles and the many mountains should be to his advantage. In fact, a hard race should suit the Tinkoff-Saxo leader and if he is not forced on the defensive by race tactics, hard riding by Katusha and Movistar may actually be an advantage for the race leader.

 

Contador knows that Valverde can get pretty close by scoring bonus seconds in some of the intermediate stages in the third week and so he needs to extend his advantage whenever he has a chance. Furthermore, he is still afraid of Chris Froome and he will again try to gain time on the Sky leader. He may not be riding as aggressively as he did today and he will definitely save his energy for the final climb but here we can expect Contador to ride offensively. At the end of a hard stage in the mountains, Contador is very hard to beat and so he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Today Joaquim Rodriguez didn’t seem to be in too much difficulty and he even tried a few attacks himself. He has made it clear that his goal is not another podium finish but his first victory in a grand tour and so Katusha probably have big plans for tomorrow’s stage. The final climb suits him pretty well as the hard part is pretty short and very steep and he will try to use his strong team to put Contador under pressure.

 

In a big mountain stage, however, Rodriguez is usually not as strong as Contador and we honestly can’t imagine that he will be strong enough to drop the Tinkoff captain from afar. If he is still there at the end, however, he may launch one of his trademark accelerations that should allow him to get rid of the race leader, win the stage and gain a few more seconds.

 

Today Alejandro Valverde looked impressively strong and he didn’t show any sign of weakness at all. Knowing that he had made a mistake by riding too aggressively in the previous stage, he decided to focus on the bonus seconds and one final attack.

 

That allowed him to reduce his deficit to 31 seconds and there is no doubt that he is now really targeting the overall win. It may be enough for him to use bonus seconds and late attacks to take back the time and so he will probably apply a similar tactic. Movistar will try to bring everything back together for the final climb where Valverde will be following moves and then make an attack in the finale.

 

However, Valverde is no pure climber like Contador and he usually suffers on long climbs in big mountain stages, especially when it comes near the end of a grand tour. This stage may prove to be too hard for Valverde and even though he looked strong in today’s stage, he may have a harder time tomorrow. Today, however, he looked like the strongest rider and if he is still there with 500m to go, no one will be able to beat him.

 

Yesterday we overestimated Chris Froome’s resurgence and today it was evident that he is still not at the level of Contador, Rodriguez and Valverde. However, his condition still seems to be growing and like in the previous stages he may benefit from the many attacks by the Spaniards that will put them into the red zone. Furthermore, a long, hard stage should suit him a lot better and so it is impossible to rule the Brit out. It will be hard for him to drop his rivals but he did so yesterday and a repeat of that scenario is definitely possible.

 

As said, the early breakaway is likely to contain a lot of strong climbers that are still in GC contention and they may be very hard to catch. One of them is Daniel Navarro who suffered in the cold in today’s stage but has been looking very strong all race. The Spaniard is a very aggressive rider and he is surrounded by a formidable team with lots of strong climbers. It would be no surprise to see the Spaniard go on the attack with several teammates that will set the pace before Navarro takes off on the final two climbs.

 

Astana have done nothing to hide that they will try to win tomorrow’s stage with Mikel Landa. The Basque has been getting stronger and stronger throughout the race and did a really good race yesterday. Today he went down in a crash but apparently he suffered no major injuries. He will be ready to go in tomorrow’s stage and he will definitely try to be in the early break. At the moment, he is one of the best climbers in the race and if he gets into the break, he will be hard to catch.

 

His teammate Fabio Aru may also win this stage. The Astana rider is not far off the mark of the best climbers but he lacks the explosiveness to follow the attacks. However, this stage should suit a pure climber like Aru and he may benefit from the tactical battle between the favourites. As he is a bit further down in the overall standings, he may be allowed to attack in the finale.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. As said, Katusha probably have big plans in tomorrow’s stage and they will probably try to send Giampaolo Caruso or Daniel Moreno on the attack to put Contador under pressure. At the moment, Caruso is the strongest of the pair and he is currently not far off the mark of the best climbers. If he joins the break, his main task will be to support Rodriguez but the situation may allow him to go for the stage win.

 

One rider that excels in long hard queen stages is Mikel Nieve who has already won big stages in the Vuelta and the Giro by going on long-distance attacks. Sky may be keen to have a rider in the early break and here Nieve is definitely a good choice. Like Caruso, his main task will be to support his captain but if the break stays away, he could take the win as he did in the Dauphiné earlier this year.

 

Laurens Ten Dam has done nothing to hide that he wants to attack in one of the mountain stages and he has definitely singled this one out as it starts with a tough climb. He is no longer in his Tour de France condition but he is an excellent climber that can finish off such an attack.

 

Tanel Kangert suffered from stomach problems in yesterday’s stage but today he felt better. The Estonian has been climbing strongly in recent stages and today he hung onto the favourites for a long time. Like his teammate Landa, he could join the early move and finish it off like he did two years ago in the Tour de Suisse.

 

Alessandro De Marchi has already taken one stage win but this stage has his name written all over it. The Italian excels in long, hard mountain stages and he will definitely try to attack. Today he was riding really strongly in support of Damiano Caruso and he doesn’t seem to be fatigued yet.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alberto Contador

Other winner candidates: Joaquim Rodriguez, Alejandro Valverde

Outsiders: Chris Froome, Daniel Navarro, Mikel Landa, Fabio Aro

Jokers: Giampaolo Caruso, Mikel Nieve, Laurens Ten Dam, Tanel Kangert Alessandro De Marchi