The second week of the Vuelta a Espana was a tough affair for the sprinters and the third week won’t be much easier. There’s only one sprint opportunity left in the race and the fast finishers will all try to make the most of tomorrow’s relatively flat stage. However, the rolling terrain along the Galician coast can be very hard to control and there is no guarantee that it will all come down to a bunch sprint in A Coruna.

 

The course

After a well-deserved rest day, the riders head into the final block of racing that has a bit of everything with a stage for the sprinters, two summit finishes, a stage for a breakaway and a time trial. Many riders will be pleased that it all starts with the easiest stage of the final week as it will give them the chance to ease back into competition and get a gentle reintroduction to racing.

 

While the first week offered several opportunities for the sprinters, the final two weeks have been almost fully dedicated to the climbers and there are very few incentives for the fast riders to stay in the race. The final week only leaves one opportunity and it already comes with four hard stages still to go. During the previous three mountain stages, the sprinters have thought a lot about stage 17 which has been the reason for them to go up the many mountains.

 

The riders have now reached Galicia where the race will end, and the riders will kick off their time in the region with a 190.7km stage from Ortigueira to A Coruna in the northwestern part of the country. A big part of the stage takes place along coastal roads which means that the roads are of the rolling, twisting nature that characterize such stretches.

 

Even though there are a number of smaller climbs, none of them are categorized and the main highlights are the intermediate sprints that come at the 78.2km and 171.9km marks respectively. In the first part, the riders don’t touch the coastline but when they reach the city of Ferrol after 60km of racing, they will follow the coastal road until they pass close by the finishing city of A Coruna with 65.7km to go. From here, they tackle a small circuit on the southern outskirts of the city before they return to the city for what is likely to be a final sprint. The riders will follow the coastal road for the final 5 kilometres which means that there are lots of sweeping bends and roundabouts but no sharp turns. The riders will go straight through two roundabouts in the final 500m where the road bends slightly to the left. There’s a very small climb with 3.5km to go and then a short descent leads to the final 1.5km that are completely fla.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Racing in Galicia can be pretty windy and so the sports directors will study the weather forecast very carefully. They will be pleased to know that tomorrow will be a perfect day for a bike race as the region welcomes the riders with 25-degree temperatures and a partly cloudy sky.

 

There will be a light southerly wind which will freshen a bit and gradually change direction as the day goes on. In the final, it will be blowing from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will generally have a cross-headwind or a headwind for the first part of the stage but in the finale, there may be a cross-tailwind as they go back to A Coruna along the coast. In the final 4km, there will mainly be a cross-tailwind or a tailwind when the riders head to the finish along the twisting coastal road.

 

The favourites

The sprinters have had a very hard time in this year’s Vuelta. At the start of the race, it was already evident that there wouldn’t be many real bunch sprints in the race but tough, windy conditions, crashes and punctures have taken away several of their only chances in a race made for climbers. The second week only had one sprint stage and that was marred by a big crash and took lots of them out of contention and things aren’t better in the third week.

 

It is very rare for a grand tour that the final sprint stage comes with four more days of racing still to go. Even the traditional sprint stage in Madrid is no longer there, meaning that there is only suffering left for the sprinters when they have rolled into A Coruna tomorrow afternoon.

 

This means that tomorrow’s stage is a massive goal for many riders and this could lead to some risky racing. As the sprinters have had so few opportunities, some of them were willing to risk a bit more in last week’s sprint stage and that led to a big crash. It is a well-known fact that a low number of sprint stages leads to more crashes and tomorrow’s stage could again be a dramatic affair.

 

All the sprinters desperately hope for a sprint finish tomorrow but in fact, there is no guarantee that it will all come down to a bunch sprint. The terrain along the Galician coast is pretty hard to control as it is constantly up or down. Already in 2012, Giant-Shimano tried to set up John Degenkolb for a sprint win in a very similar stage and back then Stephen Cummings stayed away.

 

Furthermore, this is the final opportunity for many riders. Stage 19 is a good option for attackers but for riders that are not climbers or time triallists, this is the big goal. Hence, the racing may be a lot more aggressive than it has been in the first sprint stages and if a big, strong group gets clear, it may never come down to a bunch sprint.

 

Finally, Giant-Shimano may find themselves pretty isolated when it comes to chasing down the break. Everybody knows that John Degenkolb is the big favourite and until now only FDJ and Giant-Shimano have been doing the work in the flat stages. With Nacer Bouhanni out of the race, the French team will change strategy. Due to the limited number of sprint stages, most teams are more focused on climbers and even though most of them have a sprinter on the roster, they will do nothing to assist him. Andrea Guardini may be the other big favourite but Astana is fully focused on Fabio Aru and will not spend any energy in chasing down a break in this stage. Furthermore, Giant-Shimano have lost Lawson Craddock and also have to keep something in reserve for Warren Barguil’s GC campaign.

 

On paper, Giant-Shimano is the only team with a genuine interest in a sprint finish and most other teams will go into the stage with a plan to attack. Things will be a lot clearer when the breakaway has taken off after what could very well be a frantic, fast start to the race. Giant-Shimano will do their best to make sure that the break is not too strong or too big and when the elastic has snapped, it is time to take stock of the situation.

 

Giant-Shimano will probably try to chase and they will do a lot to bring it back together for a sprint. If he wants to win the points jersey, he probably needs to win this stage and so Giant-Shimano will have an extra incentive. Whether they will get any help will be determined by the composition of the break as the teams that have missed out and have a sprinter may lend them a hand. If they don’t get any help, they may call off the chase. Hence, there is a chance that the break will stay away.

 

In fact, Giant-Shimano would probably have hoped for a bit more wind which would have made the GC teams more nervous. A hard fight for position would automatically up the pace and make it easier for Giant-Shimano to bring it back together. Furthermore, it would make the race harder which suits Degenkolb who is a lot stronger than most other sprinters.

 

However, the riders will mainly have a headwind but in the finale, there will be a cross-tailwind. This will probably make for a fast run back to A Coruna as everyone wants to be in a good position. The wind is probably not strong enough to split the field but we can expect things to get hectic with 30km to go when the riders turn around to head back to the finish.

 

As said, it will be a complicated affair for Giant-Shimano to set up a sprint finish but they may get some help from teams like Lotto Belisol, Trek, Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Lampre-Merida if those teams miss the break. Hence, the most likely outcome is a bunch kick.

 

In that case, it will be very hard to beat Degenkolb. With Bouhanni out of the race, the German has proved that he is clearly the fastest rider in the race. He usually recovers very well at the end of grand tours and by making it into the break in stage 15, he has shown that he is still riding well at the end of the race.

 

One day after his latest victory, he suffered a lot from his crash earlier in the race and it seemed that Giant-Shimano considered whether he should continue in the race. Since then he has recovered well and is now again targeting the points jersey. Unlike many other sprinters, he gets stronger towards the end of a three-week race and this puts him in the perfect position.

 

Tomorrow’s non-technical, tailwind sprint will be very fast which suits a power sprinter like Degenkolb perfectly. With Nikias Arndt, Ramon Sinkeldam and Koen De Kort at his side, he has by far the strongest lead-out train and as they have done in most of the previous sprints, they will probably dominate the finale. If Degenkolb is delivered on the front, he will probably be impossible to pass.

 

Tom Boonen finished second in the latest sprint stage and claimed that he had the speed to win. He regretted not having started his sprint a bit earlier but was encouraged by his sensations. He is building condition for the Worlds and needs to achieve good results to convince Carlo Bomans that he deserves to lead Belgium. Tomorrow’s stage will be a big goal.

 

Boonen is riding strongly at the moment and this lumpy stage suits him well. A hard race makes his chances better and the long power sprint suits him well. He has Nikolas Maes at his side in the finale and the Belgian is a solid lead-out man. If he gets into a good position, it may be Boonen’s chance to shine.

 

Michael Matthews is no pure sprinter and we doubt that he will be able to beat Degenkolb in this kind of finish. However, the Australian usually recovers pretty well and he has been handling the recent mountain stages really well. The lumpy profile could make this stage really hard and that would suit Matthews well.

 

Matthews has been hampered by the loss of his teammate Brett Lancaster but he still has Mitch Docker at his side in the finale. In stage 8, he nearly beat Bouhanni in a sprint which proves that he is really fast at the end of a hard stage. Matthews will hope for a bit of win to make things tough and if that’s the case, he will be a danger man.

 

The only rider that can match Degenkolb’s speed is Andrea Guardini who has not done a single sprint in this race yet. The Italian was riding really well at the start of the race but unsurprisingly, he has had a hard time recovering from his efforts. Furthermore, he has hit the deck twice and he is still suffering from his injuries.

 

Guardini managed to get through the queen stage – receiving criticism from Nikolas Maes who claimed that the Astana rider had hung onto his team car several times – and now has one final chance to sprint. However, tomorrow’s stage is definitely not easy and it may be a bit too tough for him. However, Guardini is very fast and if he is still there at the finish, he is the rider most likely to beat Degenkolb.

 

Roberto Ferrari played the role of lead-out man for Maximilano Richeze in stage 12 but tomorrow he will probably again get his own chance. The Italian would have preferred a more technical finish but he is excellent at positioning himself. He is not as fast as Degenkolb in this kind of finish but he is not far off the mark. If things get a bit messy in the finale, he is a guaranteed presence and he knows how to benefit from such conditions.

 

Jens Debusschere surprised many in stage 13 when he almost stayed with the GC riders in the very tough finale. This shows that the Belgian champion is still riding well and he will be eager to finally get his chance in a bunch sprint. At the end of a grand tour, recovery is extremely important and Debusschere has clearly recovered well. He has taking his sprinting level up a notch and has the speed to create a surprise.

 

As said, there is a solid chance that a breakaway could make it in this stage and there are lots of good riders that excel in this kind of terrain. Trek are still in search of a stage win and they will have their eyes on this one. Fabian Cancellara is preparing for the Worlds and seems to be getting better and better. With his excellent TT skills, he is a solid breakaway pick. With his fast sprint, he has several cards to play if he joins the right group.

 

Another solid breakaway candidate is Paul Martens. The German is very strong in this kind of terrain and Belkin will actively be trying to join the moves. Martens excels on short, steep climbs and he has a very fast sprint. Like Cancellara, he has a number of cards to play if he makes it into the break

 

This stage could be a big goal for Filippo Pozzato who is still trying to convince Davide Cassani that he deserves a spot for the Worlds. He seems to be at a decent level and this classics terrain suits him well. He is a fast sprinter and strong on the flats but often makes the wrong tactical decisions in the finales. He needs to overcome that weakness to win but he has the strength to finish it off.

 

FDJ are down to just four riders and will do their utmost to join the break. Geoffrey Soupe will be their man for a bunch sprint but he knows that he will never beat the faster riders. He has been climbing excellently well and his best option will be to join the break. If he manages to do so, his fast sprint will turn him into a potential stage winner.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: John Degenkolb

Other winner candidates: Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews

Outsiders: Andrea Guardini, Roberto Ferrari, Jens Debusschere

Jokers: Fabian Cancellara, Paul Martens, Filippo Pozzato, Geoffrey Soupe