After a rest day and a flat stage, the GC battle heats up again with another uphill finish on the Monte Castrove. The final climb is not overly tough and suits punchy rider more than real climbers and while a breakaway will do its utmost to stay away, there is a big chance that Alejandro Valverde has set his sights on another stage win.

 

The course

There won’t be much chance for the GC riders to recover in the final two weeks of the race. After just one easier stage, it is back into the serious business as the riders will tackle another summit finish in stage 18. Even though the climbs are not very tough and it is not a big mountain stage, it is another day to stay attentive and at this point of the race, time differences can definitely be made.

 

The riders are still in Galicia and the day will offer more of the coastal riding that often characterize racing in this region. At just 157km, it is another short stage that brings the riders from A Estrada to the summit finish on the Monte Castrove near the city of Meis. From the start, they head straight to the coast and the first part of the stage consists of a long run along the typical rolling coastal roads in Galicia where the wind can be a potential danger. After 60km of racing, they reach Vilanova de Arousa which hosted the start of last year’s race.

 

From here, they continue along the coastal road to the city of Sanxenxo where the opening team time trial ended in 2013 and where they will contest the first intermediate sprint with 58.4km to go. Moments later they hit the 23.9km finishing circuit that consists of a rolling run along the coastal road to Pontevedra, a climb to the finish on the top of Monte Castrove and a descent back to the coast.

 

The riders will hit the category 2 climb (6.5km, 7%) for the first time with 30.4km to go and then descend back to Ponetevedra for the final intermediate sprint which comes just 9.2km from the finish. Then it is back onto climb for the final time. The riders reach the summit 700m from the line and then it is slightly descending with a gradient of 2-3% in the final part. There are a number of switchbacks on the climb but the final one comes more than 2km from the finish and from there the road is mostly straight. The riders go through a roundabout 300m from the climb.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Galicia has greeted the riders with nice weather but things are set to turn sour for the final days. Thursday will be a very mixed day with lots of clouds, a bit of sunshine and intermittent showers that could make things tricky. The temperature will reach a maximum of 23 degrees.

 

It will be a pretty windy day, with a moderate wind blowing from a sourtherly direction. This means that the riders will mostly have a headwind as they head down the Galician coast but things will become dangerous in Portonuovo where they turn into a crosswind. There will be a cross-tailwind on the Monte Castrove, a cross-headwind on the descent and a cross-tailwind in the flat section along the coast on the finishing circuit.

 

The favourites

The GC riders have had to easier days and are now ready for the final four stages that could all play a role in determining the overall winner of the race. The main stage is of course Saturday’s big mountain stage but it could be dangerous to underestimate the tricky stages on Thursday and Friday.

 

The climb of Monte Castrove is not very hard as the gradient is relatively stable around 7%. There are a couple of steeper sections but the come on the lower slopes while the gradient is around 5-6% for the final kilometre. Furthermore, it is a pretty short climb and so it is more suited to the puncheurs than the real climbers.

 

Very often such stages come down to a sprint from a small group of climbers as it is hard to create a selection. At this point in a grand tour, however, fatigue is starting to set in and one could have rather surprising outcomes. Last year the riders faced a similar “easy” summit finish on Alto de Naranco in the final week and on that day, Chris Horner surprisingly dropped Vincenzo Nibali to take the red jersey while Joaquim Rodriguez made use of his explosive skills to win the stage.

 

Furthermore, such stages are not very prestigious which means that a breakaway usually has a good chance of staying away. There is no doubt that lots of riders have marked this one out as one of their final opportunities and even though it takes a solid set of climbing legs to actually win such a stage, the pretty easy gradients and the flat start mean that more riders have a chance in this stage than in a big mountain stage.

 

Hence, we can again expect a big fight in the battle in the opening part as lots of riders want to make it into the early break. It will probably take more than an hour before the elastic finally snaps and this could turn this stage into a very fast one.

 

However, the efforts may all be in vain for the riders that eventually make it into the break. On the rest day, both Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez clearly indicated that they want to win this stage as it suits them perfectly. Valverde knows that he needs to gain time on Froome before the weekend stages and 10 bonus seconds combined with a strong acceleration in the final kilometre of the climb, could add to his advantage. Rodriguez has made it clear that his main goal now is to win a stage and he knows that it will be hard against Contador and Froome in Saturday’s big mountain stage. Tomorrow is his best option and so Katusha will be ready to go.

 

This means that Movistar and Katusha are likely to control the opening attacks firmly and those two teams are some of the strongest in the race. The early part is flat which should make it easier to avoid a big, strong break. When the break has taken off, they will probably combine forces and try to bring it back together for a battle between the favourites on the final climb.

 

The long run down the coast will mostly be into a headwind but we could see some nervous moments in the run-in to the climb on both occasions. As everybody will be aware, things are unlikely to split the first time but when they hit the section after the descent, things will be more dangerous. However, all GC riders should be well-positioned and it would be a surprise if anyone is caught out.

 

In the end, it should come down to a battle on the final climb. Valverde and Rodriguez will both go into the stage with the plan to make a searing acceleration in the final kilometre of the climb and try to gain a few second in addition to the stage win. Contador will be riding defensively but it will be interesting to see how Froome handles the climb. The Brit knows that it will be hard to follow the more explosive riders in the finale and his best chance is to make it as hard as possible. It would be no surprise to see Sky set a hard tempo on the final climb in an attempt to tire Valverde and Rodriguez out. Froome has made it clear that he wants to take any opportunity and we will be pretty surprised if he doesn't try to attack

 

Nonetheless, Valverde must be the favourite to win this stage. He and Rodriguez are the best riders for this kind of climb that is probably not hard enough for Froome or Contador to make a difference. When the two Spaniard attack in the finale, it will be hard for Contador and Froome to keep up with them and even if they manage to do so, they will have no chance in the slightly descending sprint finish.

 

At the moment, Valverde seems to be a bit stronger than Rodriguez and even though he may not be able to drop the Katusha captain, he has the advantage of being the superior sprinter. Valverde is always strong at the end of the Vuelta and even though he has had a long season, he is still riding well. He will be hard to drop on this climb and among the favourites, no one will be able to beat him in a sprint.

 

His main challenge will be to control the finale. Last year he lost a couple of similar stages that were tailor-made for him because Movistar were unable to keep things together in the finale. This year the Spanish team has looked vulnerable as Jose Herrada has not been at his best level. However, he may benefit from the very strong Katusha team which may control the finale but there is a chance that a late attack will deny Valverde the chance to sprint for the win.

 

The final climb doesn’t suit Chris Froome perfectly but the Sky rider is getting better and better. He won’t settle for second just yet and will definitely try to exploit every opportunity. His best chance comes in Saturday’s stage but tomorrow may offer unexpected possibilities. In the past, Froome has been able to make a difference on similarly easy climbs and it would be no surprise if he tries to launch an attack in the finale.

 

Froome is likely to get stronger and as he is a better climber than Valverde and Rodriguez, he may be able to drop the Spanish pair. He may not be able to drop Contador but he is faster than the race leader in a flat sprint. If that duo arrive at the finish together, the odds are on Froome to take the win.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez will definitely try to make one of his trademark attacks in the finale and even though he seems to be a bit below Valverde’s level, there is a chance that he may be able to drop the Movistar rider. As said, he won a similar stage to Alto del Naranco 12 months ago and he will try to use a similar plan. Expect Daniel Moreno to try to use his explosiveness to set Rodriguez up for an attack.

 

The downhill finale doesn’t suit Rodriguez very well as the tiny Spaniard is not very fast in that kind of sprint. He needs to get rid of his rivals on the climb and that’s what he will try to do.

 

Another rider that is tailor-made for this finish, is Daniel Martin. The Irishman is riding really strongly in this race and even though he is not completely at the level of the best climber, he is not far off. On this easier climb, he may be able to stay with the best and he is the only rider who could potentially beat Valverde in a sprint finish. Furthermore, he has a very aggressive approach and the finale will be difficult to control. He may launch a late attack to win the stage just like his cousin Nicolas Roche did 12 months ago.

 

Another rider that has been attacking a lot is Warren Barguil. The Frenchman has proved that he is a great grand tour rider as he is still fresh at the end of the race. He is clearly one of the best climbers in the race and he has a solid sprint. Of course he won’t beat Valverde in a head-to-head battle but he may launch an attack in the finale. In that case, he will be hard to bring back and so there may be another Vuelta stage win in store for Barguil.

 

Fabio Aru is another very aggressive rider who is riding really well at the moments. He is clearly fifth in the hierarchy but is no longer a real podium candidate. This means that he won’t be too heavily watched and if he attacks in the finale, the main contenders may not react immediately. If Movistar have run out of domestique resources, he may again hold off the favourites to take a stage win.

 

Of course Alberto Contador cannot be completely ruled out. The Spaniard is the best climber in the race but tomorrow he will probably have a defensive approach. He is unlikely to make any attacks and he won’t beat Froome, Valverde or Rodriguez in a sprint finish. If the race becomes selective and he is the only rider who can follow Froome, he may see an opportunity to repeat the great performance from La Farrapona,

 

Finally, we will select jokers that can win the stage from a breakaway. As said, an early escape definitely has a chance in this stage which will be hard to control and if a big, strong group gets clear, Movistar and Katusha may throw in the towel. The flat start means that it is hard to predict which riders will make it into the break but in this kind of finish, only a select few can finish it off.

 

Alessandro De Marchi is riding excellently well at the moment and he nearly won the queen stage to add to the stage win he took earlier in the race. He will definitely try to attack in the final week and this stage may be a good option. He is clearly one of the freshest riders and his rouleur skills will give him a chance in the flat opening part. At the moment, he is one of the best climbers and it is hard to imagine that anyone will be able to beat him on the final climb.

 

Luis Angel Mate has been riding excellently well in the last few stages and has twice finished in the top 20 in mountain stages. The Cofidis rider is usually very aggressive but has not been able to hit the right breakaway yet. The flat start won’t make it easy but at this point, it is more about freshness than skills on the flats. Being the in-form rider of the moment, he will be hard to beat if he joins the right break.

 

Alexey Lutsenko has already come close to a stage win as he finished second in stage 9 and he still seems to be riding strongly. Astana are mostly focusing on Fabio Aru but have shown that they will also try to go on the attack. Lutsenko is no pure climber but he can handle this kind of ascent. He is very fast in a sprint and if he can stay with the best on climb, he could take another stage win for Astana.

 

BMC will probably try to go on the attack as they are still in search of a stage win. Dominik Nerz is tailor-made for this stage as he is both fast in a sprint and climbing really well. He is consistently in the top 30 in the mountain stages and will probably be given carte blanche to join the early moves. If he makes it, he will be one of the favourites.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Joaquim Rodriguez

Outsiders: Daniel Martin, Warren Barguil, Fabio Aru, Alberto Contador

Jokers: Alessandro De Marchi, Luis Angel Mate, Alexey Lutsenko, Dominik Nerz