Only two stages are left in the Vuelta a Espana but all is still to play for in the battle for the overall win. The penultimate stage offers the climbers a final chance to gain time on the time triallists in one of the hardest stages of the entire race and there is no doubt that Chris Froome goes into the day with a plan to try to turn the race on its head on the final big day in the mountains.

 

The course

In recent years, the Vuelta organizers have introduced the idea of having a big summit finish on the penultimate day and that concept will be repeated in 2014. Unlike the two previous editions in which the final summit finish took place on a brutally steep climb – Bola del Mundo and Angliru – this year doesn’t end with an excessively tough climb but the Puerto de Ancares is definitely hard enough to create big time gaps. The ascent is one of the toughest of the entire race and it comes at the end of one of the hardest stages as well.

 

The riders have briefly left the coast and will travel over 185.7km from Santo Estevo de Ribas de Sil to the top of the finishing climb close to Ponferrada which will host the World Championships later in the year. The first part of the stage serves the purpose of bringing the riders to the foot of the mountains and so the first 103.2km are mostly flat. The first few kilometres are downhill and then there is an uncategorized climb but otherwise the terrain is pretty easy and offers the first intermediate sprint at the 89km mark.

 

The climbing starts with the category 2 Alto de Vilaesteva (6.4km, 5.3%) whose descent leads to the bottom of the category 3 Alto de O Lago (8.4km, 4.0%). A very short descent leads to the uncategorized Alto de Restelo which is followed by the first longer descent down to the bottom of the category 1 Alto de Folgueiras de Aigas (9.7km, 6.7%, max. 10%).

 

That climb signals the start of the finale and from now there will be no room for recovery. With a rather constant gradient of around 7-8%, it is a very regular ascent that only gets slightly easier near the top. Then it’s a pretty short descent to the bottom of the final climb which is only one of two to have been categorized as an HC mountain. It is 12.7km long and has an average gradient of 8.7% which makes it one of the steepest finishing climbs of the race.

 

After a first part with a gradient of around 8%, the riders hit the most difficult part with gradients between 13% and 18% for the next two kilometres. Then there’s an easier section before the gradient again reaches double-digit numbers. With 3.5km to go, it becomes easier and a section with a gradient of 2-4% leads to the final 1.5km where the gradient is between 8% and 12%. There’s an intermediate sprint on the lower slopes with 10.7km to go. The finale is a bit technical as there is a hairpin bend and a sharp corner inside the final kilometre, with the former coming 480m finishing straight which has a gradient of around 10% before it levels a bit out near the line.

 

 

The Puerto de Ancares was last used in 2012 when Alberto Contador and Joaquim Rodriguez were involved in an intense battle in what was the first of three consecutive summit finish. Contador made several attacks but was unable to drop his rival and instead Rodriguez launched one of his trademark sprints to win the stage, gain five seconds and solidify his overall lead.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Tomorrow’s stage is one of the hardest of the entire race but to make things even worse, the riders are likely to ride under horrendous weather conditions. Rain is forecasted for the entire stage and is set to intensify as the day goes on. The temperature at the bottom of the final climb will reach a maximum of just 18 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northwesterly direction which means that the riders will generally have a cross-tailwind for a big part of the stage, interspersed with some crosswind sections. At the bottom of the penultimate climb, they will turn into a cross-tailwind and there will be a tailwind on the Puerto de Ancares.

 

The favourites

Going into the final big mountain stage, the GC may not be as close as it was one year ago when mere seconds separated Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner. However, the race is definitely not decided yet as Chris Froome’s condition is clearly on the rise and the Brit has made it clear that he is not ready to admit defeat just yet.

 

Froome knows that he is likely to beat Contador in the final time trial but as it is pretty short and quite technical, his time gains will be pretty small. To win the race, he needs to take back most of the time in tomorrow’s stage and he is willing to risk everything. As a past Tour de France winner, Froome will not be too concerned with a second place in the Vuelta and he will go all out trying to dethrone Contador in the final weekend of the race.

 

Tomorrow’s stage offers the perfect opportunity to make a big difference. Even though it is not a very big mountain stage with big climbs all day, it is still a pretty hard course and the final half leaves very little room for recovery. With four climbs coming in quick succession, the stage can be made pretty hard and this is definitely what Sky plan to achieve.

 

In the first part of the race, the British team played an unusually anonymous role and rarely took the initiative in the mountain stages. Knowing that their captain was not at 100%, they decided to stay calm and wait for Froome’s condition to get better. In stages 16 and 18, they applied the usual Sky formula for the first time and tomorrow’s stage is likely to be completely dominated by the Brits.

 

With just a short time trial coming up, no one has any real reason to hold anything back and all riders who have just a little bit left in the tank and is not a time trial specialist will be keen on going on the attack. For half the peloton, it will be all about survival but lots of riders and teams know that this is their final chance to take a stage win. Hence, we can expect another very fast and animated start with lots of attacks.

 

The first part is downhill which will make for high speeds and there is a big chance that the break has not gone clear by the time, the peloton hits the uncategorized climb at the 30km mark. This will make things harder to control as very strong climbers can use that ascent as a launch pad for an attack and we expect the break to be formed at this point of the race.

 

With the break likely to be created on a climb, it will probably be a pretty strong group but we expect Sky to control everything firmly. Froome still hasn’t won a stage and he desperately needs the bonus seconds if he wins the race overall. Hence, Sky will hit the front to make sure that the gap doesn’t get too big and they will probably set a pretty fast tempo on the climbs to make things hard.

 

Sky haven’t brought their A team to this race but they still have a formidable line-up. In the mountain stages, they have usually had strength in numbers and even though they don’t have three top climbers like Katusha, they have a very strong block of riders that excel in mountainous terrain. Riders like Vasil Kiryienka, Dario Cataldo, Peter Kennaugh and Kanstantsin Siutsou can ride tempo for a very long time while Philip Deignan and Mikel Nieve will be saved for the final climb.

 

Sky will probably ride fast all day but the real action will start on the penultimate climb where they will really try to make things hard. We expect them to create quite a bit of selection and it will probably be a pretty small group that reaches the summit.

 

On the final climb, the team will probably up the tempo even more – we may even see Froome sprint for bonus seconds in the sprint on the lower slopes – and this means that the early escapees will have a very hard time staying clear. In the end, Nieve will set Froome up for one of his brutal attacks.

 

Froome knows that he needs to gain a lot of time and so he will probably launch his move pretty early. Furthermore, the hardest part comes in the middle section and Froome needs to get rid of Contador before he reaches the easy section near the top. Hence, the action will probably kick off far from the finish.

 

Everybody knows that Froome wants to attack and after his great showing yesterday, Alberto Contador, Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde will probably stay calm, waiting for Froome’s move. In the end, it will all come down to another exciting battle between the four giants. Valverde and Rodriguez have both been riding well but on the really big climbs, they have been one step below Froome and Contador. Hence, we expect it to be another showdown between the two best climbers in the world.

 

Froome and Contador are clearly pretty equally matched. On Le Camperona and Monte Castrove, Froome was the strongest while Contador had the upper hand on La Farrapona. That day, however, Froome had been riding in the wind all the way up the climb while Contador had just been following wheels.

 

Froome’s condition is clearly on the rise and even though Contador also seems to be getting stronger, Froome seems to be the better of the two at the moment. Since their last clash, Froome is likely to have increased his advantage and Contador has to be at his very best if he wants to follow Froome on this climb.

 

The final climb is harder than La Farrapona which is a clear advantage for Froome. Contador benefits from the fact that he can allow himself to follow wheels and only has to respond to Froome’s accelerations. With a tailwind, however, drafting plays less of a role which plays into Froome’s hands. With a solid advantage, Contador knows that it is important not to blow completely up and he may let the Brit go in the end. Froome has repeatedly shown that he is the best climber when he is at 100% and tomorrow the odds are on the Brit to win the stage.

 

Contador clearly suffered on Monte Castrove but tomorrow’s harder stage suits him better. As he has the advantage that he doesn’t have to do any work on the climb, no one can rule out that he will be able to repeat the feat from La Farrapona. If he just has the slightest bit of energy inside the final kilometre, he will definitely try to crown a Vuelta triumph with another stage win and a victory for the Spaniard is definitely also a possibility.

 

At the moment, Alejandro Valverde seems to be the best of the rest. The Movistar captain is still not fatigued despite his hard racing schedule and he seems to be a lot stronger than he was in the Tour. However, he was unable to keep up with Froome on Monte Castrove which suited him much better than tomorrow’s longer, harder climb. It is hard to imagine that he will be able to match Froome and Contador on this kind of climb. If he manages to do so, however, his fast sprint will make him the clear favourite.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez finds himself in a situation that is very similar to Valverde’s. The Katusha rider is clearly strong but he is one step below the two best climbers. Like Valverde, he was unable to match Froome on Monte Castrove which suited him pretty well and so it is hard to imagine that things will have turned around on a longer, harder climb. Rodriguez desperately wants that elusive stage win but it will be hard for him to repeat his win on Ancares.

 

Fabio Aru has been riding very wisely as he has benefited from the stop-go racing from the Spanish favourites to take two stage wins. Tomorrow, however, everybody will probably be waiting for Froome’s attack and so the pace will probably be consistently high. This will make it harder for Aru to make one of his usual attacks. On the other hand, he may have a chance if Froome is unable to drop his rivals. If the favourites are equally matched, Aru may again be the rider to benefit.

 

As said, Sky are likely to keep everything firmly under control but if a strong group gets clear on the early climb, they may be unable to bring them back. That could open the door for an escapee but it will take a very strong rider to make it happen.

 

Alessandro De Marchi is one such rider. The Italian has already won a stage and is mostly known as an escape artist. Now he is even mixing it up with the GC riders in the finale as he is working for his teammate Damiano Caruso. Tomorrow he will definitely try one of his trademark long-distance attacks and currently he is one of the strongest climbers in the race. In the queen stage, they had a hard time catching him and tomorrow they will have so again.

 

Ryder Hesjedal also has a stage win in this race but as usual he is just getting stronger and stronger as the race goes on. In the queen stage, he was up there with the GC riders and managed to finish in the top 10. Tomorrow he will undoubtedly try his hand with another long-distance attack. Being able to mix it up with the best in the finales, he is another rider that will be hard to catch.

 

Finally, we will pick a few jokers. Jerome Coppel has been getting better and better in this race and now he is maybe climbing better than ever before. On Monte Castrove, he finished 12th despite having launched a strong attack in the finale and that performance will have boosted his confidence. Like Hesjedal and De Marchi, he will try to attack on the uncategorized climb and he is climbing strong enough to finish it off.

 

Romain Sicard is sitting in 13th overall and he will be keen to improve on that position. To do so, he needs to go on the attack and he has proved that he is willing to risk it all by joining a long-distance move. If the break gets clear on the first climb, he will probably try to join the attacks and then he could end up winning the stage.

 

Europcar has another card to play in this stage. Climber Maxime Mederel had a slow start to the race but now his legs are coming around. He finished in the top 20 yesterday and tomorrow’s stage should suit him a lot better. If he is in the move with Sicard, he may have to sacrifice himself for his captain but if he gets his own chance, he could make a surprise.

 

Luis Angel Mate is one of several Cofidis riders that are climbing really well. The Andalusian has been unusually quite in this race but his 20th place in the GC proves that he is in great condition. Until now he has not had much luck when it comes to joining the right breakaway but with an early climb to use as a launch pad, tomorrow’s stage may offer him a better chance.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Alberto Contador, Alejandro Valverde

Outsiders: Joaquim Rodriguez, Fabio Aru, Alessandro De Marchi, Ryder Hesjedal

Jokers: Jerome Coppel, Romain Sicard, Maxime Mederel, Luis Angel Mate