The grand tour season is usually brought to an end with a big bunch sprint in Madrid but this year’s final day of the Vuelta a Espana is breaking the tradition. For the first time in more than 20 years, the race won’t end in the capital as Santiago de Compostela plays host to the exciting finish to a memorable edition of the Spanish race and for the first time in a decade, the time triallists will get their chance to shine on the final day of the race.

 

The course

For the first time since 1993, the Vuelta will not finish in the Spanish capital of Madrid. Unipublic wants to celebrate the 800th anniversary visit of St Francis of Assisi’s visit to Santiago de Compostela and so Madrid has passed the baton to the Galician city.

 

The finishing city will not be the only change compared to recent finishes. Every year since 2004, the race has finished with a stage for the sprinters. While the Tour de France has definitively skipped the idea of hosting a time trial on the final day, the Giro organizers have mostly had a race against the clock on the final day in the recent editions of their race. The Vuelta has followed the sprint tradition but this year a time trial will keep the GC excitement alive until the very end and a finish in the early evening will make things a bit more spectacular.

 

Unlike the final Giro time trials which have often been fairly long, however, this year’s final stage will only have a minimal impact on GC. At just 9.7km, the time differences will be very small and it is more like a prologue than a real time trial. The stage takes place on a typical urban course in Santiago de Compostela and is almost completely flat, meaning that it is one for the specialists. It is pretty technical though and there are numerous corners and roundabouts to negotiate in the first part. The second half is a lot more straightforward and here the really powerful riders will be able to make a difference. While the climbers will be able to limit their losses in the first half, they will suffer a lot more in the finale.

 

Santiago de Compostela last hosted a Vuelta stageiIn 2007 when Oscar Freire beat Paolo Bettini in a bunch sprint.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Everybody will be crossing their fingers for dry roads on this very technical circuit but unfortunately it seems that the wishes won’t be fulfilled. While there may be a bit of sunshine in the morning on an otherwise cloudy day, rain is forecasted for the afternoon and evening. The temperature for the evening time trial will be around 17 degrees, making it one of the coldest days of the race.

 

There will be a light wind form a southeasterly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a crosswind, interspersed with a few cross-tailwind sections. The wind may abate a bit towards the end which means that the early starters may have a very slight advantage but it should make no real difference.

 

The favourites

Time trials at the end of a grand tour usually suit the GC riders as it is more about recovery than TT skills. This stage, however, is not the usual long time trial. In fact, it is more like a prologue and this means that freshness and recovery is likely to play less of a role. As lots of riders are completely on their knees, the results will still be vastly different from a typical opening time trial and we should see more GC riders come to the fore. On a short, technical course, however, the specialists will have a very good chance to go for the stage win.

 

For many riders, the stage will be more of a ceremonial end to three weeks of hard racing and most will take it pretty easy and enjoy the atmosphere. As rain is forecasted, most won’t take any unnecessary risks and so only the specialists and the GC riders that have something to win or lose will go full gas. On such a short course, time gaps will be very small and so the impact on the GC will be minimal. Lots of GC riders can’t change anything in such a short stage and they will prefer to stay safe too.

 

The rain will have a massive impact on this technical course and it will make the average speed a lot slower. One can only hope that the conditions will be the same for everyone. If that’s not the case, the stage will definitely be won by a rider who has been riding on dry roads as wet roads make a massive difference on this route.

 

The course is pretty mixed as the first part is very technical and suits riders with great acceleration and bike-handling skills. The second part is much more straightforward and this is where the specialists will really excel. The first part may suit the sprinters who usually perform well in prologues but this stage may be a bit too long to give the fast finishers a real fighting chance.

 

Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara have both abandoned the race which opens the door for lots of riders who will now fancy their chances. The course was not perfectly suited to Martin and he may have had a hard time anyway. As opposed to this, Cancellara would have excelled in this kind of stage as he remains the best rider in the world for short, technical TTs. Wet roads would have been an extra advantage for the Swiss who would have been hard to beat in this stage.

 

Now the stage is open to a lot more riders and in fact it is a pretty unpredictable affair. However, Adriano Malori must be the favourite. He has been working hard for Alejandro Valverde in this race but he was still hoping to excel in the first time trial. However, the Italian performed very poorly on a stage that may have been a bit too hard for him.

 

Nonetheless, he has been riding incredibly well in this race and he has probably been climbing better than ever before. This indicates that he is in great condition and he is one of the very best when it comes to short, flat time trials. He proved so in Tirreno-Adriatico when he beat all the giants Fabian Cancellara, Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins and Tom Dumoulin and this stage should suit him well. It is definitely a bit too technical to his liking and he may suffer a bit in the first part. In the second part, however, not many riders will be able to match Malori’s speed and the Italian would love to get a confidence boost before the World Championships.

 

 

 

Chris Froome has often proved that he is one of the best time triallists in the world – just recall how he nearly beat Martin in last year’s flat Tour de France time trial.

 

However, this time trial doesn’t suit him very well. First of all, it is way too short to suit a GC rider like Froome perfectly. Secondly, the many technical sections are a clear disadvantage for Froome as there are better bike-handlers in this field. Furthermore, Froome is not very explosive which is very important on such a technical course.

 

Froome performed very poorly in the first time trial which suited him pretty well but it is obvious that his condition is on the rise. At the moment, he seems to be one of the strongest rider in the race and he will probably be the fastest rider on the long straights in the finale. The main challenge for him will be to limit his losses in the first part. He may not be the fastest at the intermediate check but being the in-form rider at the moment, he could make it up in the finale.

 

Kristof Vandewalle has long been known as a great time triallist but this year he has stepped up his level a further notch. He took dominant victories in the Tour of Austria and Tour de Pologne time trials, even beating Malori in the latter. The first time trial was too hard for him but this flatter course should suit him better.

 

Vandewalle is suffering from a broken rib but despite those injuries he has been climbing surprisingly well. It remains to be seen how he handles the TT position but if he is not too bothered by his injuries, he should be up there. Unfortunately, the course may be a bit too short for him as he generally excels in longer TTs. Furthermore, he may suffer a bit in the technical first part.

 

Trek have another excellent time triallist in their ranks. Jesse Sergent spent a long time in the hot seat during the first time trial and is one of the best riders in the world for short, flat time trials. The Kiwi recently got close to a win in the Eneco Tour and he finished second behind Vandewalle in Austria too. With his track experience, he is suited to this kind of distance and he is technically strong too. After a great start to the race, he seems to have been a bit tired in the final week but he is definitely one of the best for this kind of stage.

 

Rohan Dennis came into this race a bit short on form but the Australian has been getting better and better. A few days ago he almost won a stage from a breakaway and yesterday, he was one of the early animators of the stage. Dennis is one of the best time triallists in the world and performs well both on short and long courses. This year he has finished second on several occasions and he will love to finally buck the trend by taking that elusive victory.

 

Manuel Quinziato has been time trialling extraordinarily well all year. Earlier in his career, he was a decent time triallist but for some reason he almost forgot how to perform in the individual discipline. This year he has been better than ever before and most recently he was fourth in the Eneco Tour. Quinziato is in excellent condition and is still riding strongly at the end of the race. He excels on flat course, is technically strong and has a good acceleration. In short, he has all the skills to do well in this stage.

 

The same can be said for Alejandro Valverde. Despite not being known as a TT specialist, Valverde has always been known as an excellent prologue rider. His great bike-handling skills and his good acceleration will be really useful on a course like this one. It is no coincidence that he crushed the opposition in the Ruta del Sol prologue earlier this year. The stage may be a bit too long to suit him perfectly but he could create a surprise.

 

When he came back from suspension, Alberto Contador had a hard time rediscovering his TT skills but in 2014 he has found back to his best level. Most recently, he did a great first time trial in this race and earlier this year he was second behind Froome in the Dauphiné prologue. However, this stage is a bit too short and technical to suit him well and he will prefer not to take any unnecessary risks. It will be a surprise if the Spaniard wins the stage but at the end of a grand tour, you can never rule out one of the best GC riders in the world.

 

Finally, we will select some jokers. Alexey Lutsenko has been riding really well in this race and he has come close to a stage in twice. The former U23 world champion recently won the Tour of Denmark time trial which was held over a similar distance. Lutsenko doesn’t seem to be tired yet, is pretty explosive and technically strong. This stage suits him really well and he has the skills to make it another great day for Astana.

 

Johan Le Bon was first known as a TT specialist but in the last few years he has not been able to live up to expectations. For some reason, he has always done well in the De Panne TT which is held on a short, flat course that is pretty technical. This makes it very comparable with tomorrow’s stage. Le Bon is clearly flying at the moment as he has been a relentless attacker in the final week, and he could end FDJ’s Vuelta on a high.

 

Michael Matthews may be known as a sprinter but he is actually a very good time triallist too. Earlier this year he won the Tour de Slovenie TT which was held on a similar short, technical course. Matthews has proved that he is still in great condition but it remains to be seen whether he will give tomorrow’s stage a shot. He will be the Australian captain for the Worlds and will prefer not to take any unnecessary risks if the roads are wet.

 

Daniele Bennati has been working tirelessly for Contador but tomorrow he may get his own chance. The Italian may be known as a sprinter but he is a very good time triallist on short, technical courses too. He is clearly riding strongly at the moment but there is no guarantee that he will give it a shot. If the roads are wet, he will prefer to stay safe for the Worlds.

 

Vasil Kiryienka, Andrey Amador and Jonathan Castroviejo are all great time triallists who have been working hard for their captains. Tomorrow they don’t have to save any energy for later which means that they may give it a short. The course is probably too short for Kiryienka to excel while Amador and Castroviejo have both be time trialling poorly all year. On paper, however, they all have decent TT skills and could create a surprise.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Adriano Malori

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Kristof Vandewalle

Outsiders: Jesse Sergent, Rohan Dennis, Alejandro Valverde, Alberto Contador

Jokers: Alexey Lutsenko, Johan Le Bon, Michael Matthews, Daniele Bennati, Vasil Kiryienka, Andrey Amador, Jonathan Castroviejo, Damien Gaudin