The pure sprinters got their time in the spotlight in today’s opening road stage but they will have to step into the background tomorrow. The third stage offers a steep little climb inside the final 2km, making it a stage more for puncheurs and classics riders than real sprinters.

 

The course

The opening road stage may have been unusually flat for the Vuelta but already on the third day, the riders head into the terrain that characterizes the Spanish grand tour. Even though stage 3 is definitely not one for the GC riders, it offers the riders the chance to slightly test their climbing legs on an undulating route and the puncheurs a chance to shine in a finale that suits them well.

 

The 197.8km stage starts in Cadiz just a few kilometres from the previous finish in San Fernando but this time there is no beautiful ride along the coast. Instead, the riders head inlands right from the gun and even though the first half of the stage is mainly flat, the westerly direction brings them towards the hills in the Los Alcornocales National Park.

 

The climbing starts when the riders go up the category 3 Puerto de Galis whose top is located at the 91.8km mark and from there it is almost straight onto the category 3 Alto Alcornocales (9km, 2.9%). Having descended down to Ubrique, the next 15.6km are all uphill as the riders go up the category 3 Alto del Camino (13.3km, 3.7%)  and contest an intermediate sprint along the way. A short, undulating section with the final intermediate sprint leads to the final category 3 climb, Puerto del Boyar (6.6km, 4.2%) which summits at 1100m of altitude.

 

Then it’s time to turn around, leave the hilly national park and head back towards Jerez de la Frontera where the race started a few days earlier. The final 46.2km consist of a fast descent and a slightly descending road to the finish in Arcos de la Frontera. The easy terrain is interspersed with two uncategorized climbs that are both pretty easy. However, the last of those is located in the finish and is a short 1.4km ascent with an average gradient of 6%. It starts with 1.8km to go and the top comes just 400m from the line, with the final section being slightly downhill. The finale is a bit technical as a long straight roads leads to two sweeping bends leading onto the short 150m finishing straight.

 

 

 

 

The weather

As expected, today’s stage was marked by very hot conditions that made it a tough affair for the riders. The Andalucian heat will continue to have an impact on the coming stages too. Tomorrow will be another day with bright sunshine and the temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of no less than 32 degrees.

 

There will barely be any wind, with only a light breeze blowing from a northerly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a crosswind all day, with a few headwind sections along the way. In the final 4km, there will mainly be a cross-headwind that gradually becomes a crosswind inside the final kilometre.

 

The favourites

If the puncheurs and classics riders were asked to pick their favourite grand tour, most of them would probably point to the Vuelta. The Spanish race is usually loaded with tough stages that end with a short, steep climb in the finale. This year there may be fewer of those opportunities as many of the undulating stages have a flat finish but one of the perfect opportunities for the punchy climbers comes in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Today was a day for the pure sprinters who excelled in a completely flat finale but many of the riders that dominated today’s stage should find tomorrow’s going a bit too tough. First of all there is a lot more climbing along the way and the riders will be pretty fatigued by the time they reach Arcos de la Frontera. More importantly, however, the climb in the finale will take most of the fast finishers out of contention.

 

Instead, the puncheurs will come to the fore while the GC riders will also come to the forefront. They won’t be in contention for the stage win but in such a tricky finale, lots of splits will appear. It will be very important to hit the final climb in one of the first positions to avoid losing a few stupid seconds.

 

While yesterday’s stage was a clear goal for Nacer Bouhanni who used his teammates to assist in the chase behind the early break, tomorrow’s stage is a big objective for Michael Matthews. Even though they have a GC rider in this race, Orica-GreenEDGE is mostly focused on stage wins and they usually pick their days very carefully. Stage 2 is one of their big goals for the race and this means that it will be virtually impossible for a break to make it to the finish.

 

The start is pretty easy and Giant-Shimano and Orica-GreenEDHE wll be on their toes right from the beginning to make sure that the early break is not too strong or too big. In this easy terrain, it will be a manageable task and the break should get clear pretty early. Everybody knows that the stage will be firmly controlled and so there will be no big fight from the start.

 

With three category 3 climbs, there will be a mountains jersey up for grabs and this should make it a little more attractive for riders to join the break. Expect to see Caja Rural, MTN-Qhubeka, IAM, Cofidis and Europcar go on the attack in a quest to gain some time in the spotlight.

 

Movistar will lead the early part of the chase. Today they did surprisingly much work in a stage where they could easily have loosened the grip and it will be interesting to see if they show the same kind of eagerness in tomorrow’s stage. Apparently, they are very keen on keeping the leader’s jersey and this should provide the sprint teams with some assistance.

 

Giant-Shimano and Orica-GreenEDGE will probably carry the main working load together with Movistar but they may get some assistance from BMC. The American team is here mostly to ride for GC but have done nothing to hide that they want to win a stage with Philippe Gilbert too. If Peter Sagan decides to give it a go, Cannondale may lend a hand too.

 

As the second half of the stage is pretty tough, the break will probably not get a very big advantage and will be kept firmly under control. The sprint teams cannot allow themselves to go too fast in the hilly zone as they need to keep their sprinters fresh for the finale. Hence, they need to keep the gap pretty small.

 

On the other hand, Matthews is a much better climber than most of the sprinters and we may see Orica-GreenEDGE tighten the screws on the climbs in a quest to tire out a rider like John Degenkolb. We may even see an attack from a few riders on the ascents but due to the long descent in the finale, the amount aggression will be pretty small.

 

Some of the sprinters will maybe have been dropped already on the categorized climbs but the real challenge is the small ramp in the finale. This will create a selection in the finale and it requires some solid climbing legs to be in a good position at the top. The sprint takes place on slightly descending roads but as there are only 400m from the top to the finish, you need to be very close to the front on the climb to win the stage. On the other hand, the climb is not hard enough to use for an attack and it will be very hard for a single rider to escape on the slopes.

 

It should all come down to a sprint from a reduced peloton and this means that the favourites are sprinters who can stay with the best on this kind of short climb. Four riders stand out as perfectly suited to this finish and it is likely that the winner will be one of John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, Peter Sagan and Philippe Gilbert.

 

Today Degenkolb got very close to a stage win and he showed that he has an amazing turn of speed in the finale. He was poorly positioned in the final turns and that denied him the chance to sprint for the win but he still managed to pass several riders to take second and he even seemed to be faster than Nacer Bouhanni.

 

That sprint performance indicates that the German is in very good condition for the Spanish grand tour and tomorrow’s stage suits him really well. As a classics specialist, he is very strong on short climbs and tomorrow’s ascent should not be too steep for him. In the Flemish classics, he was one of the very strongest on the hellingen and the final climb is very comparable to a typical Flemish climb. He has a very strong team to position himself for the finale climb and it will all come down to his ability to stay with the best when the going gets tough.

 

There are definitely better climbers than Degenkolb but we doubt that they will be able to get rid of the in-form German. He should be among the first riders at the top and in a flat sprint he is currently very hard to beat which makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival will be Michael Matthews. As said, this stage is one of the biggest goals for the Australian who excels in this kind of tough finales. Among the sprinters, only Peter Sagan is a better climber than the Orica-GreenEDGe rider who won a very hard stage of the Giro d’Italia earlier this year. In the Tour de Pologne he proved that he is already in a good condition and like Degenkolb he has the added incentive of being in contention for the red jersey.

 

While we may be a bit uncertain about Degenkolb’s ability to be among the best at the top of the climb, we have no doubt that Matthews will be up there with the best. There is no doubt that Degenkolb is faster than him but at the top of this little climb, things may have changed. Furthermore, the flat finish should favour Matthews compared to the puncheurs who may have had a chance to outsprint him in an uphill finish. If the finale proves to be too hard for Degenkolb, Matthews is the obvious favourite.

 

On paper, the stage is tailor-made for Peter Sagan who would have been the outstanding favourite if he was at 100%. However, the Slovakian is mostly in the race to prepare for the world championships and there are no guarantees that he will try his hand in the sprint. Today the team decided to work for Oscar Gatto and as tomorrow’s stage also suits the Italian really well, it could be another chance for the Italian.

 

However, there is a chance that Sagan will try his hand in tomorrow’s stage. He was unlikely to win today’s flat stage but tomorrow he is one of the outstanding favourites. Hence, he may be keen to take a few risks. As a great climber and a fast sprinter, he is perfectly suited to this stage and even though Degenkolb may be faster in a sprint, Sagan should be able to beat the German in this kind of finale. If Sagan decides to give it a go, he will be hard to beat.

 

There is no doubt that Philippe Gilbert has made this stage a very big goal but he would have preferred the finish to be located at the top of the climb. The flat sprint means that it will be harder for him as he is not as fast as Matthews or Degenkolb. Furthermore, his recent illness means that he is not yet in top condition which was evident in the recent Eneco Tour.

 

On the other hand a sprint after a small climb is different from your usual flat sprint and earlier this year Gilbert beat Matthews in a similar finale in the Brabantse Pijl. Back then, however, he was at 100% of his capabilities which is no longer the case. To have a chance, he needs the race to be very hard and he will probably have to settle for a spot on the podium.

 

Nacer Bouhanni may be known as a pure sprinter but he is actually a pretty versatile rider. In the past he has done well in similar finales in the Tour of Oman and earlier this year he rode excellently to a podium finish in a much harder stage of the Route du Sud. Earlier in his career he even had ambitions for the Ardennes classics and even though he has now shelved those plans, no one can rule him out in this kind of stage.

 

Bouhanni is of course one of the two fastest riders in this race but at the top of a climb, he may not have his usual turn of speed. Furthermore, he is unlikely to be in a good position which will make things hard. Hence, he is more of an outsider than a real favourite but due to his fast speed, he definitely has a chance to surprise.

 

If Cannondale decides not to support Sagan, they will put their eggs in the Oscar Gatto basket. The Italian had a bad start to the season but showed great form in the Tour of Austria where he won two sprint stages. Gatto is no pure sprinter and usually has no chance in the flat finishes. However, he is perfectly suited to this kind of finale and in the Arctic Race of Norway he proved that he has maintained his condition. He should be among the first riders at the top of the climb and even though there are faster riders than him, he will have a chance in this kind of hard sprint.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Lloyd Mondory put health issues and a few difficult seasons behind him when he won a stage of the Vuelta a Burgos and he is clearly in great condition. He is no pure sprinter and struggles in the flat bunch sprints. In this kind of finale, however, he should be able to do well. He is punchy on this kind of short climbs and he has a fast sprint at the end. In Burgos he proved that he still has the speed to mix it up with the fast guys and with his great condition, he could create a surprise.

 

Trek have indicated that they will approach every stage as a one-day race. Today they rode in service of Jasper Stuyven but tomorrow it will be Fabio Felline’s chance to shine. The Italian hit the deck in today’s stage and it remains to be seen whether he is fit enough to go for the win but on paper the course suits him perfectly. He has a fast sprint and excels on short climbs which makes him a danger man.

 

Another Trek option is Fabian Cancellara. Even though he would actually have a chance in a sprint, the Swiss will probably try his hand with a late attack. He is mainly here to build condition for the Worlds but last year he was very competitive already in the first week. He showed some solid condition in the Eneco Tour and this finale suits him really well. If he launches an attack on the final climb, he will definitely be hard to catch.

 

Gerald Ciolek is a former stage winner in the Vuelta but he is no longer able to mix it up with the big guns in the pure bunch sprint. However, the 2013 Milan-Sanremo winner is very strong on short climbs and this finale should suit him well. No one will be able to drop him on this kind of ascent and he is obviously very fast in a sprint. His main challenge will be to be in a good position at the bottom but if he is still up there in the finale, he will be sprinting for the win.

 

Former U23 world champion Alexey Lutsenko showed that he is great condition when he won the Tour of Denmark time trial and this stage suits him really well. It will be too hard for Andrea Guardini which should open the door for the Kazakh to take his chance. As a strong climber, he should be up there with the best on the final small hill and he has a fast sprint to finish it off. It will be hard for him to win the stage but a top 5 should definitely be possible.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: John Degenkolb

Other winner candidates: Michael Matthews, Peter Sagan

Outsiders: Philipe Gilbert, Nacer Bouhanni, Oscar Gatto

Jokers: Gerald Ciolek, Lloyd Mondory, Fabio Felline, Fabian Cancellara, Alexey Lutsenko