Michael Matthews proved his versatility by winning a hard stage that proved to be tougher than expected and the Australian has a great chance to make it two in a row in another stage that suits him well. This time, however, a flat finish means that faster riders like John Degenkolb and Nacer Bouhanni will have a better chance of beating the in-form Australian.

 

The course

After three stages in terrain that has rarely been visited by the Vuelta a Espana, it is time for a Vuelta a Espana classic. The fourth stage of the race brings the riders over 172.6km from Mairena del Alcor to the well-known finish in Cordoba that has been used a couple of times in the past. The starting city is located just west of Sevilla in the hottest part of Spain and the riders will have to tackle some brutal conditions in these opening days of the race.

 

This area is pretty flat and so the first part of the stage is very easy. The riders travel in a straight line from the start towards the finishing city of Cordoba and the only highlight on the plains is the first intermediate sprint which comes with 84.9km to go.

 

Things get interesting when the riders hit the bottom of the category 3 Alto de San Jeronimo (4.6km, 4.6%) which summits with 54.3km to go and serves as a warm-up for the difficult finale. Having descended down to Cordoba where the final intermediate sprint is located, the riders take on the well-known 36.9km circuit in the area north of the city.

 

It’s a pretty tough affair as the riders head straight up the first category 2 climb of the race, the Alto del Catorce por ciento (8km, 4.7%). The summit comes with 26km to go and after a short undulating section, the riders head down the descent back towards Cordoba. The final 8km, however, consist of an almost completely flat run back to the finishing city. The final 800m are slightly uphill with an average gradient of 1-1.5%. The finale is non-technical as the final roundabout comes more than a kilometre from the finish and then the road only bends slightly to the right and has a tricky little curve before the riders hit the 500m finishing straight.

 

The finishing circuit has been used several times in recent editions of the race and so the riders know what to expect. In 2011, Liquigas did a major coup on the descent when four of the team’s riders, Vincenzo Nibali, Eros Capecchi, Peter Sagan and Valerio Agnoli escaped with Pablo Lastras before Sagan beat the latter in the sprint. Another group rolled in 17 seconds later while the peloton was 6 seconds further adrift.

 

In 2009, the riders did the circuit in the opposite direction, meaning that there was a shorter flat stretch in the end, and back then it was a day for a breakaway. Lars Boom took a solo victory while the peloton took it easy and arrived at the finish more than 25 minutes later. In 2008, the riders did it in the 2014 direction and this time Tom Boonen beat Daniele Bennati in a sprint from a reduced peloton.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the hot conditions had a huge impact on the stage which was raced under extreme heat that took its toll on the riders. Several teams reported that they had used more than 200 bottles while Fabian Cancellara claims to have lost 4.5kg during the stage.

 

Tomorrow will be even more brutal as the riders face another day with bright sunshine. The temperature at the finish in Cordoba will reach a maximum of 36 degrees, making it a very hot day in the saddle. There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind for most of the day. On the finishing circuit, there will be a crosswind on the climb and a headwind on the first part of the descent. Then the riders turn into a cross-tailwind before they hit a crosswind for the final 7km of the stage.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage provided another example of the wrong information in the roadbooks that the Vuelta is loaded with. The official information indicated that the final 400m of the stage would be slightly descending but that certainly wasn’t the case. In fact, it kicked up all the way to the line and the road proved to be steeper than the 6% the roadbook suggested. Hence, the stage turned out to be harder than most had imagined and was mostly dominated by the GC riders.

 

That left the sprinters a bit disappointed and the stage proved to be too hard for a rider like John Degenkolb who had expected to be in contention for the stage win. They will be pleased to get their revenge in tomorrow’s stage which should be one for the strong sprinters that can handle a tough climb in the finale. With a flat finish, however, it will definitely be one for the fast guys and the GC riders will again have to step into the background.

 

As said, the finale is well-known as it has been used several times in the past and history shows that it usually ends in a sprint from a reduced peloton. Lars Boom may have taken a breakaway win in this finale but tomorrow it will be very hard for the escapees to make it to the finish. Everything suggests that a sprint will decide the winner in Cordoba.

 

First of all, Orica-GreenEDGE will do their utmost to keep the leader’s jersey which they can realistically defend until Thursday’s first summit finish. Secondly, the stage is another great opportunity for Michael Matthews and there is no doubt that the Australian team will do their utmost to bring it back together for a sprint finish.

 

They should get some help from FDJ. Today Nacer Bouhanni proved that he is in excellent condition and even though the final climb will make him a bit more uncertain, today’s stage will have provided him with lots of confidence. FDJ are mainly here for the sprint stages and they should be eager to get Bouhanni in the mix.

 

The stage is also perfectly suited to John Degenkolb and even though he didn’t show his best legs in today’s finale, tomorrow’s flat finish should suit him better. If the situation gets dangerous, Giant-Shimano will definitely lend a hand to the chase and with those three teams all working hard, the break will be doomed.

 

Everybody knows this and so the early break will probably be established right from the gun. This time the mountains jersey is probably also out of reach as the escapees will probably be caught before the top of the final climb, meaning that there will be no big incentive to go on the attack. Expect the usual suspects MTN-Qhubeka, IAM, Caja Rural and Europcar to form the core of the break.

 

The main action will start on the final climb and it will be interesting to see how the teams handle that ascent. Matthews is the strongest climber among the sprinters and Orica-GreenEDGE may be interested in making the race as tough as possible. It would be no surprise to see riders like Adam Yates and Ivan Santaromita smash it on the slopes in a quest to get rid of Degenkolb and Bouhanni.

 

In the final part of the climb, there will be a huge fight for position. Everybody remembers how Liquigas split the race to pieces on the technical descent and so everybody wants to start the downhill section near the front. Expect Sky to use their usual tactic of hitting the front in the finale to make sure that Froome starts the descent in a good position. This will automatically up the pace and make it even harder for the sprinters.

 

There is a chance that the peloton will split on the technical descent but unless a strong team creates a gap like Liquigas did in 2011, it will be difficult to keep the advantage in the flat run-in to the finish. However, a team like BMC with strong descenders like Samuel Sanchez and Cadel Evans may try to make an attack and Movistar with Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana could have a similar plan. Unless a key rider gets caught out, however, things should come back together for a sprint finish but if some of the sprinters have suffered on the climb and starts the descent near the back, they may never get back to the front.

 

With a sprint finish on the cards, the favourites are strong sprinters that can handle this kind of climb in the finale. Today Nacer Bouhanni proved that he is at the top of his level and this naturally makes him the favourite to win the stage.

 

The Frenchman may have a reputation as a pure sprinter but it would definitely be a mistake to underestimate his climbing skills. In the past, he even spoke about targeting the Ardennes classics and earlier this year he climbed excellently on a very tough stage of the Route du Sud. Today he beat several GC riders in a very hard finale and this means that he should be able to handle tomorrow’s climb which is not overly steep.

 

Bouhanni is an excellent descender who should benefit from the technical downhill section and in stage 2 he proved that he is one of the two fastest riders in this bunch. The non-technical finale may not suit him perfectly and he may be a bit more fatigued in the end but as he is currently in excellent condition, he is definitely the man to beat.

 

However, it should be a good fight with John Degenkolb. Today the German proved that he is not at 100% of his capabilities but he is still a solid climber who should be able to handle tomorrow’s ascent. In stage 2, he probably did the fastest sprint of all but had to settle for second as he was out of position for the sprint. Tomorrow’s long finishing straight suits a power sprinter like him a lot more and he usually gets better when the sprint comes at the end of a hard race.

 

Furthermore, he has the benefit of a very strong lead-out train. Koen De Kort should be able to survive the climb and Nikias Arndt may do so too. If one adds powerful riders like Tobias Ludvigsson, Chad Haga and Lawson Craddock, Giant-Shimano may have numbers in the finale and this should provide Degenkolb with plenty of support.

 

Today Michael Matthews proved how strong he is but tomorrow’s stage suits him a bit less. In a flat sprint he is usually not as fast as riders like Bouhanni and Degenkolb and he will have a hard time beating them in this kind of finish.

 

However, the sprint comes at the end of a very hard stage and if he manages to make the stage very tough, it may have taken the sting out of Bouhanni’s and Degenkolb’s legs. As he is a better climber, he should be able to start the descent in a better position and if things split up on the descent, he should be in the first group. Matthews definitely has some cards to play which makes him a potential stage winner.

 

Today Tom Boonen put himself in service of Rigoberto Uran as he knew that the finale was too hard for him. As a past winner of this stage, he will definitely try his hand tomorrow on a course that suits him a lot better. The Belgian didn’t show too good condition in the Eneco Tour but yesterday he claimed to be feeling good and he looked strong in the finale of today’s stage.

 

There are definitely no guarantees that he will survive the climb which could be too tough for him but if he is there at the finish, he is one of the select few who have the speed to win. A long power sprint suits him down to the ground and he usually gets stronger at the end of a hard race. It will be hard for him to beat Degenkolb and Bouhanni but if he is still sprinting like he was in the Tour of Belgium he definitely has a chance.

 

Today Peter Sagan clearly indicated that he has no intention of going for stage wins early in this race and so Cannondale are again likely to ride in support of Oscar Gatto. The Italian looked strong in today’s finale but in the end the going got a bit too tough. Among the fast guys, however, he is one of the strongest climbers and if the race turns out to be really tough he will be in with a chance. There are definitely faster riders than Gatto but as he proved in the Tour of Austria, he is sprinting better than ever.

 

Today it seemed that Gerald Ciolek was suffering in the heat and he doesn’t seem to be at 100%. On paper, however, this stage suits him really well as he is one of the strongest climbers among the sprinters. In the big bunch sprints, he usually loses out due to poor positioning but in a smaller group he has a bigger chance. There are faster riders than him but as he proved in last year’s Milan-Sanremo he is very fst at the end of a hard race.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Lately, things haven’t gone to plan for Filippo Pozzato but the Italian actually seems to be riding pretty well at the moment. He performed solidly in today’s finale and in the Eneco Tour he was riding well too. In last year’s GP Plouay he won a sprint from a reduced group and he is pretty fast at the end of a hard race. Of course it will be hard to beat the pure sprinters but a podium spot is definitely within reach.

 

Today Jens Debusschere did pretty well in a finish that should have been too tough for him. If he is climbing equally well tomorrow, he could make it to the finish with the best. He has been sprinting very well recently and is one of the select few who have the speed to win this kind of stage. If he is still there at the finish, he should be in contention.

 

If Ciolek is not up for the challenge, MTN-Qhubeka have another card to play. Kristian Sbaragli is both a great climber and a fast sprinter and he should be able to survive tomorrow’s climb. If Ciolek is there in the finale, he will be riding as a lead-out man but otherwise he will get his chance to show his speed.

 

Daniele Bennati has been working a lot for Alberto Contador in the last few stages as he fell ill on the opening day. However, the Italian has planned to go for a stage win in the first week and tomorrow’s stage suits him perfectly. He is a great climber and even though he is not as fast as he once was, he still has a decent turn of speed.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Other winner candidates: John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews

Outsiders: Tom Boonen, Oscar Gatto, Gerald Ciolek

Jokers: Filippo Pozzato, Jens Debusschere, Gerald Ciolek, Daniele Bennati