Today’s stage proved to be too hot for most of the sprinters but they will get another chance tomorrow in stage 5 which is another mostly flat affair. However, the stage again features a tricky climb in the finale and even though it is not comparable to today’s hard ascent, it will be too hard for some of the fast finishers.

 

The course

The Vuelta a Espana may have a reputation for not being a race for fast finishers but for the versatile sprinters, the first week is loaded with opportunities. Having already had a chance in the last three stages, their string of opportunities continues in stage 5 which should again finish in a sprint.

 

The stage brings the riders over 180km from Priego de Cordoba to Ronda as the riders turn around and head back towards the coast and a finish close to Jerez de la Frontera where it all kicked off a few days ago. The terrain in this area can be pretty hilly but the organizers have put together a route that is mainly flat. It may be slightly up or down for most of the time but it should do  nothing to prevent the sprinters from staying in contention. The main highlights are the intermediate sprints that come with 125km and 58.5km to go respectively.

 

As is usual for the Vuelta, however, the riders won’t just have a flat run-in to the finish in Ronda. In the final part of the race, the riders will go up the long, gradual ascent to the top of the category 3 Puerto del Sotillo (12.5km, 3.3%) and even though it is not a very hard climb, it is likely to be too tough for some of the sprinters. The top comes just 15.2km from the finish and they are mainly flat as there is no real descent after the summit. The final kilometre is slightly uphill with an average gradient of 1-1.5% and is completely non-technical as the line comes at the end of a long straight road with no turns for several kilometres, with the only challenge being a roundabout 600m from the line.

 

Ronda has only hosted one major bike race in recent year when Alessandro Petacchi won a bunch sprint in the 2006 Vuelta a Andalucia

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the heat was unbearable for many riders who really suffered in the high temperatures. Most of them will be reluctant to realize that the heat will stay in Andalucia for the foreseeable future but as they get back closer to the coast, it should be slightly more pleasant.

 

Tomorrow will again be a sunny day and the temperature at the finish in Ronda is set to reach a maximum of 32 degrees which is a bit colder than today’s extreme heat. In this area, the wind can have a huge impact on the racing but tomorrow there will barely be any. A very light breeze will be blowing from a westerly direction which means that the riders will first have a crosswind, then a headwind and finally a cross-headwind which will also be the conditions for the final sprint.

 

The favourites

As expected, it would be a tough ask for the sprinters to make it over the final climb with the best in today’s stage and only a select few managed to stay in contact with the leaders. Only John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, Vicente Reynes and Lloyd Mondory were still in contention in the end and in that kind of sprint where it is all about power and less about positioning, Degenkolb is very hard to beat.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is very similar and is a great example of a typical sprint stage of the Vuelta. The sprinters rarely get an easy ride to the finish as the organizers usually include a climb in the finale. Tomorrow, however, things should be more manageable for the sprinters as the final climb is not nearly as tough as the Alto del Catorce por Ciento which proved to be a tough ask for most of them.

 

The Puerto El Satillo is a very typical Spanish ascent as it is a long, gradual uphill more than a real climb. According to the roadbook, it is 12.5km long and has an average gradient of 3.2% but in the Vuelta, you never know what to expect. As stage 3 proved, the roadbook can be misleading and it would be no surprise if the climb proves to be a bit tougher than the official information indicates.

 

The organizers have not released a detailed profile but it seems that it has a steeper section near the top. A few kilometres with an average gradient of more than 5% could be a big challenge for some of the fast guys but at a first glance, most of them should be able to survive this climb.

 

The sprint opportunities mostly come in the first week and so the fast guys have to make the most out of the first 8 stages of the race. Hence, there is very little chance than anyone will be able to deny them in these opening stages. For several teams, tomorrow’s stage is a key goal and the terrain should be pretty easy to control. With a mountain stage coming up on Thursday, there should be lots of firepower involved in the chase, meaning that all is set for a bunch sprint.

 

Everybody knows that the stage will be firmly controlled and as there is no incentive of a mountains jersey either, the break will probably escape right from the gun. Caja Rural, MTN-Qhubeka, Europcar and Cofidis can again be expected to make up most of the group but Lampre-Merida may also give it a shot as they had actually planned to go on the attack in today’s stage.

 

Today Orica-GreenEDGE got no help at all but tomorrow they can expected to be given a hand from Giant-Shimano. Today John Degenkolb was very uncertain about his ability to handle the final climb but today’s performance will have made him a lot more confident. FDJ may also provide some assistance but the French team may be a bit more wary after Nacer Bouhanni got dropped in today’s stage.

 

The stage is tailor-made for John Degenkolb and Michael Matthews and so we can expect those two teams to keep things firmly under control. The main action will happen on the final climb and like today we can expect a huge battle for position in the run-in to the ascent.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens on the climb itself. Today the GC teams did the pace-setting as they wanted to keep their captains in a good position for the descent. Tomorrow there is no downhill section, meaning that they have less of an incentive to ride tempo on the front. Nonetheless, it would be no surprise to see Sky on the front as a smaller peloton will make the finale less dangerous.

 

If the GC teams don’t do any damage, we can expect that Orica-GreenEDGE and Giant-Shimano will try to make things hard to get rid of Bouhanni. Even though they may not be able to drop the Frenchman, they want to make the race as hard as possible as both excel in sprints that come at the end of hard races.

 

We may see a few attacks on the final climb – Amets Txurruka is a good pick – but with a cross-headwind on the flat roads to the finish, those late moves will have no chance.

 

In the end, it will all come down to a bunch sprint and on paper, it seems that only two riders have a real chance of winning this stage. Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb have proved that they are clearly the fastest riders in this field and it is hard to imagine that the stage winner won’t be one of those two riders.

 

Today Degenkolb showed amazing power to win the stage by several bike lengths. In fact, the German has been the fastest rider in the two sprints that he has done and tomorrow’s finale is probably the one that suits him the best. A long finishing straight that is slightly uphill suits a power sprinter like him perfectly as it is more about speed than positioning and acceleration. Furthermore, it comes at the end of a tough final part and in the classics he has proved that he is very hard to beat at the end of hard races.

 

Furthermore, Degenkolb has a very strong team at his side. Today Giant-Shimano really played with the muscles as they had all their climbers in the front group at the end. Lawson Craddock and Chad Haga are both strong rouleurs and will be able to provide lots of support in the finale. With an easier climb, Koen De Kort, Tobias Ludvigsson and Nikias Arndt should also be able to make it into the front group and this means that he will probably have unrivalled team support.

 

Degenkolb’s main weakness is his poor positioning but with a strong team at his side, he is likely to be delivered on the front. If that happens at the end of a hard day in Andalucia, the German is a very probable winner of the stage.

 

His biggest rival is of course Bouhanni. The Frenchman showed amazing strength in stage 3 but today the climbing was a bit too tough for him. There is a massive difference between doing a short 1km climb in the finale and handling a sustained effort over 8km and Bouhanni is clearly better suited to the first kind of challenge.

 

Nonetheless, there is no doubt that Bouhanni is in excellent condition and there is a big chance that he will be able to survive tomorrow’s harder climb. At the moment, he seems to be the only rider who has the speed to beat Degenkolb but if he is there at the finish, he definitely has a chance.

 

At the moment, it is hard to say who is the fastest of the pair. In stage 2, Bouhanni sat up early to celebrate his win and so it was no wonder that Degenkolb gained ground in the end. As tomorrow’s sprint comes at the end of a pretty hard race, however, Degenkolb has the upper hand. Furthermore, the long finishing straight doesn’t suit Bouhanni perfectly as he would have preferred more technical challenge. However, he is great at positioning himself and unlike Degenkolb there is no chance that he will caught too far back in the bunch. If he is on the wheel of the Giant train in the finale, we should be in for a close fight.

 

Today Michael Matthews suffered a bit more than we had expected and Degenkolb turned out to be a lot more comfortable on the climb. However, the Australian managed to stay in contact with the best and tomorrow he will definitely be there again.

 

Matthews excels in hard sprint stages and tomorrow’s stage is tailor-made for him. However, he is not as fast as Degenkolb and Bouhanni and it will be hard to beat that pair. Furthermore, he doesn’t have the strongest support team in the finale as his lead-out guys are too heavy for this kind of stage. If Degenkolb is poorly positioned and Bouhanni is dropped on the climb, however, he will be ready to strike.

 

Today Tom Boonen dug deep but the final climb turned out to be a bit too tough for him. Tomorrow he will have a better chance on a stage that suits him a bit better. Boonen has handled that kind of climbs in the past and he seems to be riding well as he continues to improve his condition for the world championships. If he makes it over the ascent, the sprint suits him perfectly as it is all about power. Boonen is strong at the end of hard races and if he is sprinting like he was in the Tour of Belgium, he will be a force to be reckoned with.

 

Today the final climb turned out to be too hard for Jens Debusschere but the Belgian champion seems to be riding really well. He was close to the front in stage 3 and today he seemed to take it easy when he realized that he was not in contention for the win. Tomorrow he will dig a bit deeper and even though there is no guarantee that he will survive the climb, he definitely has a chance. On paper he is one of the fastest riders in this race and he is one of the select few that can win this kind of sprint.

 

The same can be said for Moreno Hofland. Today the Dutchman took it easy to save energy for tomorrow but in stage 5 he will go all out in a quest to stay with the best. The Belkin sprinter usually needs a hard stage to really excel and this stage suits him pretty well. He is definitely not climbing as well as Degenkolb and Matthews but if the pace is not too fast, he should be there in the end.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Today Francesco Lasca was one of the final sprinters to get dropped. Tomorrow he should be able to make it to the top with the best and then he will give it a go in the final sprint. The Italian has had a difficult season with lots of injuries but he is actually pretty fast as he proved when he took 5th in the first stage. It will be hard for him to win but a podium spot in definitely within reach.

 

Jasper Stuyven got a fantastic start to his career as grand tour sprinter when he narrowly missed out on podium spot in stage 2. Today the climbing was too hard for him but the classics specialist is actually a decent climber. He is no pure sprinter and there definitely faster riders like him but with a very powerful team at his side, he will be in a good position for the sprint and this will take him far.

 

Already yesterday we pointed to Kristian Sbaragli but the Italian was one of the final sprinters to get dropped. Tomorrow he will definitely be there in the finale and the main question will be what role he will play. If Gerald Ciolek is there, he will riding as lead-out man but the German seems to be suffering in the heat. If the captain has fallen off the pace, Sbaragli will take his chance.

 

On paper, this stage should be too tough for Roberto Ferrari but in the past he has created a few surprises. He seems to be riding really well at the moment and there is a slight chance that he will be there in the finale. He is definitely one of the fastest riders in this race and he is excellent at positioning himself. The most likely scenario is that he will get dropped but if he is there in the end, he will be close to the best.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: John Degenkolb

Other winner candidates: Nacer Bouhanni, Michael Matthews

Outsiders: Tom Boonen, Jens Debusschere, Moreno Hofland

Jokers: Francesco Lasca, Jasper Stuyven, Kristian Sbaragli, Roberto Ferrari