Until now it has been all about survival for the GC riders but now it is time for the favourites to show their cards. Stage 6 offers the first summit finish of the race and even though it is a short, explosive climb, its very steep gradients will give the first indications of who’s going to win the Vuelta a Espana.

 

The course

Until now, the GC riders have been biding their time but on the sixth day, it is finally time to find out who will be in contention for the Vuelta victory. Stage 6 offers the first major summit finish which comes unusually late in a race that often tests the GC riders already in the opening stages.

 

Overnight the riders have travelled back to the coast for a start in Benalmadena between Marbella and Malaga and the first part is an easy run on the coastal road through Malaga and further towards the east. The terrain will change after 47km of racing when the riders turn left to head into the Andalucian mountains. First up is the category 2 Alto de Zafarraya (12.3km, 5.7%) which is the hardest climb of the race so far.

 

After the top, there are no major climbs but the terrain is definitely not flat. There is no descent and instead the riders will tackle two uncategorized climbs on tough, rolling roads in a part of Spain that is usually very hot. Things culminate with the category 3 Alto de Bermejales (5.8km, 5.8%) which summits 50.3km from the finish and from there things get a bit easier.

 

The riders now travel along slightly descending or flat roads to the bottom of the final climb to the finish in La Zubia and will contest the two intermediate sprints in quick succession with 21.9km and 14.1km to go respectively. That’s a warm-up for the final, brutal ascent which is a short, very steep affair. Over just 4.6km, it has a pretty easy average gradient of 7.8% but the numbers are deceptive. After an easy first 500m, the road flattens for the next 500m before the hostilities start. The next kilometre has an average gradient of 12.78% and from there the gradient is pretty constant at around 10%. The final climb is non-technical as it is just a long straight road.

 

The final climb has been used in the Vuelta a Andalucia three times within the last ten years. In 2005 Serge Baguet took a surprise victory while Dario Cioni was the strongest two years later. In 2008 Cadel Evans beat Mikel Astarloza and Juan Manuel Garate in this finish and all three races prove that time gaps are usually pretty small.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Until now, the main talking point in the Vuelta a Espana has been the extreme heat. Today the local authorities even asked people to stay inside and avoid any physical activity. Nonetheless, the riders spent almost 5 hours in the saddle and tomorrow they will be on their bikes again on another very hot day.

 

There will be bright sunshine all day and the temperature at the bottom of the final climb is expected to reach a maximum of 31 degrees. There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a cross-tailwind for most of the day. In the run-in to the final climb, there will be a cross-headwind but it will be a cross-tailwind all the way up the ascent.

 

The favourites

With a hard mountain stage coming up, many GC riders had hoped for an easy day in the saddle in today’s windy stage but Tinkoff-Saxo’s move completely changed the scenario and there will be some very tired legs in tomorrow’s first big test. Until now, it has all been about survival for the GC riders but tomorrow there will be nowhere to hide in a stage that will give the first indications about the climbing hierarchy in the race.

 

Stage 6 may be the first mountain stage of the race but it is definitely not the hardest stage of the race. The first part is completely flat and the first two climbs are the typical kind of long gradual Spanish ascents that are not very steep. Furthermore, there are lots of flat roads in the run-in to the final climb and so it is not a big mountain stage with no time to recover.

 

The final climb is pretty short and in reality is only less than 4km long. Those 4km, however, are very steep and will be able to create time gaps. With a tailwind, it will all come down to the legs on such a steep ascent where there is little room for team tactics. However, the short nature of the climb means that time gaps will not be too big.

 

The first mountain stage is often raced pretty conservatively but tomorrow we can expect a bit of a show. First of all, the short, explosive ramp means that it is less about drafting and so the usual cautious approach may be a little less prevalent. Secondly, Joaquim Rodriguez and Nairo Quintana probably want to gain time on Chris Froome and Alberto Contador before they reach their best form and this suggests that they need to make the most of what is their best opportunity in the first week.

 

There is a bit of a crosswind in the opening run along the coast that could potentially split things and we can expect the race to be nervous right from the beginning. It will be too early for a team to try a move but as the start will probably be very fast with lots of attacks, there may be some early splits before things settle down when the early break has taken off.

 

In such a stage, there is a small chance that the break can make it to the finish and so we should see a bigger battle in the first part of the stage. However, the flat terrain means that it is easier to control the situation and teams like Katusha and Movistar will try to make sure that the break is not too big or too dangerous.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE will of course not do anything to defend their red jersey and it will be left to the GC teams to set the pace. As said, Quintana and Rodriguez need to make the most of the first few mountain stages and so we expect those two teams to try to make the race pretty hard. Furthermore, this stage is maybe Rodriguez’ best chance to win a stage and we expect the Russian team to carry the most part of the workload.

 

Katusha will probably ride pretty fast up the two climbs and may get a bit of assistance from Movistar. As Rodriguez both wants to win the stage and take important bonus seconds, we don’t leave the escapees with much of a chance. We expect things to come back together in the run-in to the final climb where the fight for position will be fierce. On such a short climb, positioning is very important and all the big teams will be working hard to keep their leaders near the front.

 

On the final climb, Katusha, Movistar and Sky can all be expected to set the tempo. The former two teams want to make the race as hard as possible while the latter team will ride in their usual way with a fast, steady tempo that suits Chris Froome. In the end, it will all come down to the legs in the final two, very steep kilometres.

 

A short, very steep climb suits Joaquim Rodriguez down to the ground and this finale is simply tailor-made for him. Maybe he would have preferred the climb to the a bit shorter but less than 4km of real climbing is definitely not too much for the explosive Spaniard. When he is at 100%, Rodriguez is virtually unbeatable in uphill sprints on steep ramps and even though the length means that this is more than just a sprint, the Katusha rider is well-suited to this finale.

 

Rodriguez claims to have prepared this race better than ever before and he clearly seems to be in really good condition. He played with the muscles in stage 3 on a climb that was actually a bit too easy for him. There is no doubt that he is completely ready and he will try to take the elusive stage victory as early as possible. This is his best chance and he has a great team to set him up for one of his trademark accelerations. Expect Giampaolo Caruso and Daniel Moreno to start the sprint inside the final 1.5km and when Rodriguez takes off, it will be very hard to come around the Katusha leader.

 

The rider that has the biggest chance of beating Rodriguez is probably Chris Froome. If the Brit had been at 100%, he would have been our favourite to win the stage as he is in undoubtedly the best climber in the world. This time, however, he has not prepared the race in his usual way with high-altitude training camps and his injury means that he is not at 100%.

 

In the finale of stage 3, he hit the front early before drifting a bit backwards, indicating that there is still room for improvement. This summit finish may come a bit too early for him and there is no doubt that he will get better as the race goes on. Furthermore, this explosive finale is not tailor-made for him.

 

On the other hand, Froome has done well in similar finishes in the past. In 2011 he won the stage to Pena Cabarga and in 2012 he won the Tour de France stage to La Planche des Belles Filles. He has a very decent uphill sprint and he has been positively surprised by his sensations. Being pretty strong in this kind of finishes, Froome definitely has a chance to beat Rodriguez.

 

Like Rodriguez, Daniel Martin is perfectly suited to this kind of uphill sprints. The Irishman finished second in Fleche Wallonne earlier this year and he excels on short, steep ramps. In stage 3, he proved that he is in excellent condition when he even dropped Rodriguez and he claims to have prepared this race better than any other grand tour.

 

Martin may not have the same track record as Rodriguez in these finishes but over the last few years he has just become stronger and stronger. In the classics, he looked better than ever before but we never got the chance to see what he could do in the Giro. Now he claims to be even stronger and if he managed to drop Rodriguez two days ago, he could do so again in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Nairo Quintana is definitely one of the best climbers in this race but this finale doesn’t suit him perfectly. The Colombian is more of a pure climber than an explosive puncheur and even though he has a decent kick in uphill sprints, he is probably unable to drop Rodriguez in such a finish. Furthermore, he claims still to be building condition and he says that this stage probably comes a bit too early for him. On the other hand, he is an excellent climber and you can never rule out the Colombian in a summit finish.

 

This stage suits Rodriguez down to the group but it is equally suited to his teammate Daniel Moreno. The Spaniard will probably have to work as a domestique for Rodriguez and set up his acceleration but there is a chance that Moreno will be given his chance. Last year the roles were the same but Moreno still managed to win two stages. In the Vuelta a Burgos he proved that he is in excellent condition and he is usually strong in the first part of the Vuelta. This year Rodriguez seems to be a lot stronger than in 2013 and so it may be harder for Moreno to get his own chance but he may take the win by virtue of team tactics.

 

This stage suits Alejandro Valverde perfectly as he is very strong in uphill sprints. Earlier this year he won Fleche Wallonne on the Mur de Huy and even though this climb is a bit longer, it is a good one for the Spaniard. However, he doesn’t seem to be at 100% and even though he blames his poor performance in stage 3 on a crash, he seems to have resigned himself to targeting a stage win more than an overall podium spot. It will be hard for him to beat the stronger riders but in this kind of finish you can never rule Valverde out.

 

Wilco Kelderman showed strong condition when he finished fourth in stage 3 and we have great expectations for the young Dutchman. He is pretty explosive and has a very strong uphill sprint which makes him a great candidate for this stage. He claims to be feeling good and he was already strong in the Tour of Utah. His main challenge will be to maintain his condition for the entire race but at this point he should be strong.

 

Finally, we will select out jokers. Cadel Evans may have come into this race in a lieutenant role but the Australian seems to be riding really well. In the Giro, he was in peak condition at the start but this time he is likely to get better as the race goes on. He sprinted to a fine 6th in stage 3 despite being out of position at the bottom of the climb and this short, steep uphill finish suits him perfectly. He is unlikely to win the stage but should be able to deliver a good performance.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have a pair of youngsters that should be able to do well in this stage. Johan Esteban Chaves and Adam Yates are both riding their first grand tours and they have gone into the race with different goals. While the Colombian is riding for GC, the Australian is targeting a stage win and they could both be up there in tomorrow’s stage. Chaves may be more of a pure climber but he has a decent uphill sprint and seems to be riding really well. He won’t win the stage but should be close to the best.

 

For Yates, it will be all about the win in a stage that suits him down to the ground. He was riding amazingly well in the Clasica San Sebastian where he was not far off the mark of Valverde and Rodriguez. He has had a small setback due to his crash in that race but he looked very comfortable on the climb yesterday. He is very explosive and perfectly suited to this finish. If he decides to give it a go, he should be close to the podium.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Joaquim Rodriguez

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Daniel Martin

Outsiders: Nairo Quintana, Daniel Moreno, Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Cadel Evans, Johan Esteban Chaves, Adam Yates