After the first mountain stage, the GC riders will get a calmer day in a tricky stage that has a lot of potential outcomes. A breakaway has a chance of making it to the finish but riders like Michael Matthews and Philippe Gilbert may also have marked the stage out as an obvious stage winning opportunity.

 

The course

After the first test in the mountains, the GC riders should get an easier day to reflect on their gains and losses. However, they need to stay attentive in the finale as stage 7 is another typically undulating affair with a tricky end that will make many riders a bit uncertain about what to expect.

 

The riders are still in Andalucia and will spend another day in the terrain just north of the Costa del Sol. Unlike in the previous stage, however, the organizers have found no major climbs for the 169km stage 7 which starts in Alhendin near Granada. From there, they travel in a northwesterly direction along slightly undulating roads, with the main challenge being the category 3 Alto de Illora (6.8km, 6.6%) at the 29.8km mark. After 76km of racing they will contest the first intermediate sprint and then they will be on mainly descending roads in the final part that leads to the finishing city of Alcaudete.

 

Here the riders will go up the category 2 climb Alto Ahillo (12.1km, 4.0%). The finish line comes after 3.9km of climbing and here the riders will contest the final intermediate sprint. On the northern outskirts of Alcaudete they take on the 55.9km finishing circuit that is a mixed affair. The first part consists of the final section of the climb and then it’s a fast descent before the riders hit some slightly undulating roads that lead to the city of Noguerones with 14.6km to go. From here, it is slightly uphill all the way to the finish, with the final 2.2km again being the first part of the Alto Ahillo and having a gradient of 3.9%. The finale is a bit technical as there are a few sweeping turns before the riders turn right at the flamme rouge. Then the road is mostly straight, bending only slightly to the left with 125m to go.

 

 

 

The weather

The Andalusian heat has been unbearable and it simply won’t give the riders any chance to recover. Tomorrow will be another brutally hot day and the only consolation is that there may actually be a few clouds that could protect the riders a bit from the sun. With a maximum temperature of 33 degrees, however, hydration will again be of utmost importance.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction and it is set to freshen slightly towards the end of the stage. This means that the riders will mostly have a cross-tailwind in the first part of the stage until they reach the finishing city. On the final circuit, there will be a tailwind on the climb and a headwind on the flat section leading to the bottom of the rise to the finish. From there, it will be a cross-tailwind all the way to the finish before the riders turns into a direct tailwind for the final 2km.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage provided the GC riders with the first clues about their chances in this race and now they hope for two easier days before they return to the mountains for Sunday’s big stage. They still have to stay attentive as the wind can play a role in this part of Spain and there may be some splits in tomorrow’s uphill finish too. However, the next two days will be all about survival for the main contenders while they prepare themselves for their next battle.

 

While Saturday’s stage is a definite sprint stage, tomorrow is one of the most unpredictable days of the entire race. The gradual uphill will rule out the pure sprinters but the climb is definitely not hard enough for the GC riders to make a move. This is the kind of stage that has no clear favourite and as bigger time gaps have now opened up, it may be a very good day for a breakaway.

 

Everybody knows that and so we can expect our first big battle in the early part of the stage. Until now, the break has gone clear right from the beginning but tomorrow it should be a real fight. Most teams have gone into the stage with the plan to make the early move and this means that it will probably take some time before the break gets clear.

 

If the break escapes in the flat section, it is a bit of a lottery to predict which riders will make it into the move as luck plays a huge role. However, there is a big chance that the riders will have reached the bottom of the first climb before the elastic has snapped and in that case, it requires some strong climbing legs to make it into the move. If that’s the case, the pace will be brutal on the climb and this will turn it into a pretty tough day for the sprinters who are likely to get dropped in this early part of the race.

 

When the break has taken off, a regrouping will take place and now much will depend on the composition and size of the break. If some key teams have missed out, they will start to chase but there is a big chance that Movistar will just set a steady pace while the breakaway will be allowed to battle it out for the stage win.

 

The key teams are probably Orica-GreenEDGE and BMC. The stage is perfectly suited to Michael Matthews who has already won one uphill sprint in this race. However, the Australian team has spent a lot of energy in recent days and if they don’t get any help, they are unlikely to go all in for a stage win. In fact, they have a number of good breakaway candidates too and so they may ride aggressively instead.

 

The second key team is BMC. This stage may be Philippe Gilbert’s best chance to win a stage and he has done nothing to hide that he wants to leave Spain with a victory. He suffered in the first few stages but yesterday he showed encouraging signs when he tried to mix it up with the best in the sprint.

 

BMC’s GC hopes were dealt a blow in today’s stage where Cadel Evans lost lots of time and Samuel Sanchez struggled in the finale. Afterwards, sports director Valerio Piva said that their main goal is to win a couple of stages and if that’s the case, they can’t afford to let this opportunity slip away.

 

Giant-Shimano may also lend a hand to the chase but they may be a bit uncertain about John Degenkolb’s ability to handle such a hard finale. Hence, they will probably save their energy for stage 8 where they will be expected to carry a big part of the workload.

 

Hence, there is a 50-50 chance for a breakaway to decide the stage. Much will depend on the composition of the break and BMC’s tactics.

 

If it comes down to a sprint finish, Michael Matthews is definitely the favourite. In stage 3, the Australian proved that he is very hard to beat in an uphill sprint and this finish is tailor-made for him. However, things are slightly more complicated than they were last Monday and he may not be the dominant rider he was back then.

 

First of all, he has appeared to be pretty tired in the last few stages and he has done nothing to hide that he has paid the price for his efforts in stage 3. Furthermore, tomorrow’s final climb is a lot longer and as it was evident in stage 4, Matthews is much more suited to a short, explosive effort than a long gradual climb.

 

However, the only really steep parts come inside the final few kilometres and it is more of a gradual uphill than a real climb. This should do nothing to put him into difficulty and the main question is his level of freshness. This time he will probably find it a bit harder but as he is obviously in outstanding condition, he is the man to beat.

 

His biggest rival is likely to be Philippe Gilbert. This finale has his name written all over it and in 2011 he would have been in a class of his own in that kind of finish. Nowadays, things are different though and Gilbert is no longer the rider he once was. However, he still has a decent punch in an uphill sprint.

 

The main question is how he has recovered from his health issues. As already said, he showed signs of improvement in stage 5 and if it comes down to a sprint tomorrow, he will definitely give it a go. The longer climb should suit him compared to the likes of Matthews and Degenkolb and he will benefit from the fact that it gets a bit steeper near the end. In the Brabantse Pijl, he beat Matthews in an almost flat sprint and in this kind of stage he will have a bigger chance.

 

In stage 3, the uphill finale was too tough for John Degenkolb. However, the German was climbing excellently in stages 4 and 5 and it seems that he needed a few days to adapt to the heat. In the last few stages, he has even seemed to be climbing better than Matthews.

 

However, there is a big difference between doing a sustained effort on a long climb and sprinting in this kind of uphill finish and there is no doubt that Matthews is usually a bit better than the Giant leader in this kind of finales. However, Degenkolb is clearly the in-form rider at the moment and he definitely has a chance.

 

If a break makes it to the finish, there are several good candidates. As said, Orica-GreenEDGE are unlikely to be all for Matthews and will probably try to join the early move.  Adam Yates is here to chase a stage win and is likely to abandon the race after the first two weeks. He will try to take his victory by going on the attack and tomorrow he has his first big chance. Being a strong climber, he will be hard to hold back on the first climb and with his fast sprint, he will be hard to beat in a small group.

 

Belkin currently leads the teams classification and they will be eager to join the move to defend their lead. Paul Martens is likely to be their preferred attacker as the German is perfectly suited to this kind of stage. By sprinting to fifth in stage 3, he has proved that he is in great condition and he is one of the best in an uphill sprint. He will definitely mix it up with the best if the peloton sprints for the win but his best chance is to beat his rivals in a sprint from a breakaway.

 

Luis Leon Sanchez hopes to salvage Caja Rural’s Vuelta by winning a stage and the Spaniard has repeatedly proved his skills to do so in a grand tour. Being a strong rouleur and a great climber, he is suited to this terrain and he is very fast in an uphill sprint. There is no doubt that Caja Rural will try to send him on the attack and he knows how to finish it off from a breakaway.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Filippo Pozzato will use this race to convince Davide Cassani to select him for the World Championships and his performance in the Eneco Tour and stage 4 indicates that he is riding well at the moment. If the break goes clear on the first climb, it may be a bit too tough for him but he has all the characteristics to excel in this kind of finish. If it all comes down to a sprint finish, he will also take his chance, making him a good pick for this stage.

 

Lloyd Mondory is riding really well at the moment and has put a couple of bad seasons behind him. He has been climbing excellently and he excels in uphill sprints. He is unlikely to win the stage in a big bunch sprint but in the past he has proved that he is not afraid of going on the attack. If he makes it into the right break, he will be a danger man.

 

Tony Martin is not yet at 100% but he actually seems to be at a decent level. In stage 5, he made it clear that he is not afraid of going on the attack and he will probably try again tomorrow. Of course he won’t beat his rivals in an uphill sprint but everybody knows that he is very hard to hold back if he makes it into the right break.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michael Matthews

Other winner candidates: Philippe Gilbert, John Degenkolb

Outsiders: Adam Yates, Paul Martens, Luis Leon Sanchez, Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Filippo Pozzato, Lloyd Mondory, Tony Martin, Elia Favilli