The sprinters are licking their lips in anticipation of one of the flattest stages of the entire race while the GC riders hope for an easy day when the riders tackle stage 8 of the Vuelta a Espana. However, strong crosswinds on the Spanish plains will make it a very nervous day that could potentially be more dramatic than initially expected.

 

The course

The sprinters don’t get an awful lot of opportunities in the Vuelta but actually there is plenty of flat terrain in Spain. On day 8, the riders will start their long journey towards the northern part of the country and the major mountain stages and this includes a section on the plains just north of Murcia. At 207km, stage 8 is the longest of the race and will bring the riders in a northeasterly direction from Baeza to Albacete in what can be described as a transitional day.

 

The roads are slightly undulating in the first part and then it’s a long, very gradual rise to the first intermediate sprint at the 127.4km mark. Moments later, the riders reach the highest point of the stage and from there, it is very slightly descending roads all the way to the finish in Albacete. The only highlight is the final intermediate sprint which comes with 53km to go. There are no categorized climbs on the course

 

The final 2km are completely flat and there are no major technical challenges either. There are numerous roundabouts inside the final 3km. The riders will turn right in the final of those 900m from the line and from there it is a long, straight road to the finish.

 

Albacete hasn’t hosted a stage since 2003 when Alessandro Petacchi won a bunch sprint before Isidro Nozal beat David Millar in a time trial one day later. In 2001, Robert Hunter beat Danilo Hondo in a sprint while Oscar Freire was the fastest in 2000. In 1999, Marcel Wüst beat Stefano Zanini in a sprint to kick off a string that saw him take three consecutive stage victories.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The terrain may not be difficult in this part of Spain but that doesn’t mean that things will be easy for the riders. The area is well-known for its windy conditions and strong crosswinds have often wreaked havoc on the peloton.

 

Hence, everybody will be studying the weather forecasts closely and some of them will be nervous to learn that there will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction. This means that the riders will have a direct crosswind from the right almost all day and this could potentially cause some drama. In the finale, there will be a crosswind until the riders make the final turn with 900m to go from where it will be a headwind to the finish.

 

Today it had cooled down a bit and the riders will be pleased to learn that things will be even better tomorrow. There will be a lot more clouds and the temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of “just” 30 degrees.

 

The favourites

The pure sprinters have only had one chance in the first week of the race and in addition to tomorrow’s stage, there are only another two completely flat stages in the race. This means that all the sprinters will be raring to go and make the most of what is a rare opportunity in a race that suits the climbers.

 

The flat profile means that it is highly unlikely that this stage won’t come down to a bunch sprint. The terrain is easy to control and FDJ and Giant-Shimano have both marked this stage out as one of their big goals in this race.

 

However, the stage may not necessarily follow the traditional pattern. As said, this part of Spain is known for its windy conditions and the roads in the area are usually relatively exposed. With a direct crosswind all day, everybody will be nervous and several teams will be ready to exploit any potential opportunity that may occur.

 

As everybody knows that this is a day for the sprinters, the early break will probably get clear right from the gun. Expect Javier Aramendia to be part of the action and he will probably be joined by a rider from MTN-Qhubeka and one from Europcar. Behind, Movistar will get an easy day as they have no incentive to chase down the break and they will leave it completely to the sprint teams.

 

FDJ are very eager to win another stage with Nacer Bouhanni and they will hit the front right very early. For Team Giant-Shimano, this stage is also a very big goal and they should be lending a hand. However, John Degenkolb went down in a crash today and even though he only lost some skin, he may not be feeling too good tomorrow. If he doesn’t feel confident in his chances, the Dutch team may leave it to FDJ to do the work.

 

Most other teams don’t have a big sprinter or is too focused on the GC to lend a hand to the chase and this means that FDJ could be left pretty isolated. However, they will be assisted by the windy conditions. Everybody will be extremely nervous and the fight for position will cause the pace to go up. If the conditions are very windy, the French team may not even have to chase in the second half of the race as it will be a drag race between all the big teams that want to keep their captains in position.

 

The main question is whether things will split up as they did a few days ago. However, attacks in the crosswinds are mostly useful when nobody expects them. That’s what happened in stage 5 as nobody had really thought that the wind would be strong enough to create carnage. Tomorrow everybody will be attentive and even though there may be splits if a team tries to attack, all the main names are likely to make the selection. This means that there is no incentive to press on and so things could easily come back together.

 

Hence, we don’t expect any GC riders to lose time tomorrow but it will definitely be a very nervous day. That also goes for the sprinters who all need to be in position not to lose their chance to sprint for glory.

 

Regardless of any splits, it will all come down to some kind of sprint. Two elements characterize the finale. First of all the finishing straight is very long which should suit the real power sprinters. Secondly, there is a strong headwind which means that timing and aerodynamics are very important.

 

John Degenkolb and Nacer Bouhanni have clearly proved that they are fastest riders in this field and they have been so dominant that it is very hard to imagine that one of those two riders is not going to win the stage. The features of the sprint favour both of them. The long finishing straight makes it perfect for Degenkolb and is a disadvantage for Bouhanni who prefers more technical finales. However, the headwind favours the aerodynamic Bouhanni compared to Degenkolb who has a lot less aerodynamic sprinting style.

 

The pair have gone head to head twice. In stage 2, Degenkolb actually did the fastest sprint but he was out of position and so had to settle behind Bouhanni who did everything right in the technical finale. In stage 5, Degenkolb was led out by Koen De Kort while Bouhanni tried to pass him on the inside. The Frenchman felt that he was boxed in, claiming that Degenkolb had sprinted irregularly, and so we never got the chance to see how they compared to each other in that sprint.

 

However, our impression is that Degenkolb is currently the fastest rider in the bunch. Furthermore, he has a formidable lead-out train that should be able to string things out in the finale. The combination Arndt-Sinkeldam-De Kort-Degenkolb should be clearly the strongest in this field and we expect Giant-Shimano to deliver Degenkolb on the front.

 

However, Degenkolb went down in that crash today and even though he has not suffered any major injuries, it is bound to have an impact on his performance. Furthermore, Bouhanni is in a class of his own when it comes to positioning and we would expect him to find Degenkolb’s wheel in the finale. Bouhanni is excellent when it comes to timing his sprint and the headwind suits him well. With Degenkolb unlikely to be at 100%, we put our money on Bouhanni to win the stage.

 

However, Degenkolb definitely has a chance and it all comes down to his recovery. If he is not too hampered by his crash and Giant-Shimano don’t mess it up in the finale, Degenkolb could very well take his third stage victory in a power sprint that suits him really well.

 

Andrea Guardini has not had any chance to show his capabilities in this race as he was set back by a puncture in the first sprint stage. Since then, the terrain has been too hard for him but tomorrow he will get his chance. In fact, he has been climbing better than ever before and his performances in the Tour of Denmark and the Eneco Tour indicate that he is in the form of his life.

 

Guardini is definitely one of the fastest riders in the peloton and this long finishing straight suits him pretty well. He usually struggles when it comes to positioning but in his few races he has improved massively in that area. If he is not boxed in the finale he is maybe the only rider who has the speed to beat Degenkolb and Bouhanni.

 

Roberto Ferrari got his race off to a great start when he sprinted to third in the opening road stage. He had another chance in stage 5 but was out of position and had to settle for 10th. Unfortunately, the Italian crashed in today’s stage but didn’t suffer any major injuries and should be ready to go in tomorrow’s stage. He is excellent at positioning himself and with Maximilano Richeze at his side he has one of the best lead-out men. If he finds Degenkolb’s wheel in the finale and times his sprint well in the headwind, he could take an elusive victory for Lampre-Merida.

 

Tom Boonen had a lot of bad luck in stage 6 when he had to fight his way back from a late puncture. This cost too much energy and so he finished far back. However, he seems to be riding really well as he finished among the best in stage 2 which didn’t suit him at all. Tomorrow’s long finishing straight is much better for his powerful sprinting style and he will be eager to prove to Belgian national coach Carlo Bomans that he is ready to lead Belgium at the Worlds.

 

Moreno Hofland did a great sprint in stage 5 where he actually seemed to be almost on par with Degenkolb and Bouhanni. Tomorrow he will be eager to do even better than that third place and with Paul Martens and Robert Wagner he has a solid support crew. However, he has fallen ill and may not be at 100% in tomorrow’s stage. That makes things a bit uncertain but if he is sprinting like he was a few days ago, he should be up there.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Matteo Pelucchi is one a very fast rider but the Italian usually struggles when it comes to positioning. Earlier this year he proved that he has the speed to beat the likes of Cavendish and Greipel when he won a stage in Tirreno but way too often he finishes outside the top 10 due to a poor position. Tomorrow’s long finishing straight should suit him well as there is less of a risk of getting boxed in the finale. Unfortunately, he has been suffering from a light fever which makes his performance a bit uncertain.

 

Jasper Stuyven is definitely not a pure sprinter but he has shown great positioning skills in this race. He has finished fourth in both bunch sprints and he will be eager to finally make it onto the podium. He has a very powerful team to support him in the finale and this makes it very likely that he will be among the best. He is not fast enough to win this stage but he could finish on the podium.

 

Belgian champion Jens Debusschere seems to be riding really well but he has suffered a lot from cramps in the hot conditions. Tomorrow things should be better and this could see him get in the mix. His sprinting earlier this year proves that he has the speed to be among the best and with Greg Henderson at his side, he has one of the best lead-out men in the world.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Other winner candidates: John Degenkolb, Andrea Guardini

Outsiders: Roberto Ferrari, Tom Boonen, Moreno Hofland

Jokers: Matteo Pelucchi, Jasper Stuyven, Jens Debusschere