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CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses

Photo: Tinkoff-Saxo / BettiniPhoto

CHRIS FROOME

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19.08.2015 @ 10:00 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

The Vuelta a Espana has a reputation as a revenge race for riders that have had little success in the first part of the season, mainly in the Tour de France. Vincenzo Nibali, Joaquim Rodriguez, Domenico Pozzovivo and Tejay van Garderen are looking for redemption after their disappointments earlier in the year but this year the Spanish grand tour is more than a race for the losers. Chris Froome is the first rider since Carlos Sastre to chase the Tour-Vuelta double and with the Movistar duo of Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana and the Astana pair of Mikel Landa and Fabio Aru all trying to continue their run of success, race director Javier Guillen has had a hard time believing the formidable start list that will make the third grand tour highly contested. CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses.

 

With its position at the end of the season, the Vuelta a Espana has always been different from the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France. While the first two grand tours are the big objectives for most riders, the Spanish race is often the chance for redemption and many riders usually make a late decision whether to do the race. Often that has led to less spectacular start lists and less motivated riders, with many using the race to prepare for the World Championships.

 

However, things have changed and for the last two years the race has had a much stronger field than the Giro. Last year it was the misfortune of Alberto Contador and Chris Froome that suddenly meant that the race could boast no less than three riders from the Fabulous Four in addition to a huge talent like Fabio Aru and the usual veterans Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde. After Nairo Quintana had crashed out of the race and Chris Froome had slowly ridden himself into form, it came down to a thrilling battle between Froome and Contador in a match that allowed us to get what we never got in France during the summer.

 

Race director Javier Guillen must still be pinching himself to see if he is dreaming as this year’s field is maybe even stronger. Unlike last year, all the big favourites completed the Tour but they have not had enough racing yet. While Vincenzo Nibali will be looking for redemption on Spanish roads and Nairo Quintana has always planned to do the Vuelta, Chris Froome has made a late decision to try to become the first rider to win the Tour-Vuelta double since the Spanish race was moved to its current autumn slot. Only Alberto Contador who also did the Giro, has put an end to the season as even not the Tinkoff-Saxo captain has been inspired by team owner Oleg Tinkov’s dreams of a grand tour triple.

 

As usual veterans Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde will try to continue their love affair with the Spanish grand tour after hugely different Tours that saw the former fade and the latter achieve the biggest goal in the remaining part of his career. Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa will again team up after they so successfully finished on the podium in the Giro and with Nibali and most of the formidable Giro squad at their side, they will be ready to go for grand tour glory for Astana.

 

Tejay van Garderen saw his podium dreams fade away when he was struck by illness in the Alps and is now looking for revenge in Spain. The same goes for compatriot Andrew Talansky who had a disappointing Tour while Domenico Pozzovivo will try to turn his fortunes around after he crashed out of the Giro. Add the veterans Samuel Sanchez and Frank Schleck, huge talents Sergio Henao, Joe Dombrowski, Rafal Majka and Esteban Chaves and consistent grand tour contenders like Pierre Rolland, Daniel Martin, Daniel Navarro and Daniel Moreno to the list and you have the recipe for three weeks of excellent racing in Spain.

 

CyclingQuotes.com has taken an in-depth look at the race's favourites, assigning 5 stars to the race's biggest favourite, 4 to his two biggest rivals, 3 to three other potential winners, 2 to four of the podium contenders and 1 to 5 of the race's minor outsiders. In this article, we take a look at the big 5-star favourite.

 

Chris Froome (*****)

Since the Vuelta a Espana was moved to its current Autumn slot, no one has managed to win the Tour-Vuelta double. In fact, Carlos Sastre is the only reigning Tour de France champion who has been brave and motivated to take on another three-week tour just weeks after stepping down from the finest cycling podium. However, Chris Froome has taken on the daunting task of making history by becoming the first rider to do this double after the restructure of the grand tour calendar.

 

It is a remarkable turnaround of stances. When Oleg Tinkov started the debate about doing the grand tour treble, it was the general consensus that Alberto Contador was brave and innovative while Chris Froome was regarded as conservative. While Contador immediately committed himself to his failed Giro-Tour project and Nairo Quintana openly declared his intention to do both the Tour and the Vuelta, Froome and Sky were fully focused on the Tour. However, the stances changed during the Tour when Sky principal Dave Brailsford first mentioned the idea of Froome doing the double and as soon as he had stepped down from the podium, it was evident that Froome was keen on the idea if he just felt the slightest amount of freshness. While Quintana briefly considered to skip his ambitious double project, it seemed that it was just a matter of time for Froome to confirm his intentions and the final announcement finally came last Monday, less than two weeks before the start of the race.

 

The decision is also remarkable if one remembers what Froome said when he last tried the Tour-Vuelta double in 2012. Having just finished second in the Tour while riding in support for Bradley Wiggins, he was extremely keen on getting his own chance to be a leader in a grand tour. He got the opportunity in Spain where he rode strongly in the first week but he faded dramatically in the final two weeks. He ended the race in fourth but was far behind the Spanish trio of Contador, Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez and the final part of the race was a matter of pure survival. Afterwards, he made it clear that the daunting task had taught him that his body was not able to go for glory in two grand tours so close to each other. When he won the Tour less than 12 months later, he again underlined that the French grand tour would be his full focus in the foreseeable future.

 

However, Froome is a fierce competitor who simply loves to compete and there is no doubt that he has been inspired by his critics to try to make history. To back a Tour de France win up with a Vuelta victory will immediately enhance his status significantly as the only rider to have made that double and silence the pundits who have hailed Contador’s courage and Froome’s conservative approach. The feat will change the story of a grand tour season that has mostly been focused on Contador’s Giro-Tour attempt.

 

When he went into the Tour de France, Froome was evidently the favourite and he fully lived up to expectations by fighting through illness in the final week to win the race. Being the best grand tour rider in recent years, he again stands out as the man to beat in the Vuelta but his position atop the hierarchy is a lot less obvious than it was for the French grand tour.

 

First of all his level of preparation has been very different from his meticulous build-up for the Tour. There has been no pre-race reconnaissance of the stages, high-altitude training camps and careful building of a peak shape for the race. Instead, it has been all about resting an recovering from the Tour so it would be unfair to expect him to be at the marvelous level he had in the first two weeks of the French grand tour.

 

That lack of preparation raises several questions. In 2013, Froome was by far the best stage race rider in the world and he dominated the week-long races he did in the build-up to his first Tour de France victory. Back then, he seemed to be unbeatable but that is no longer the case. In 2014, he was set back by several health issues which meant that he never really reached peak condition before he lined up at the Criterium du Dauphiné where he was clearly the strongest rider. However, he was not at his usual level in most of his other races. He came back from injury to deliver a below-par showing in the Volta a Catalunya and even though he managed to defend his title in the Tour de Romandie he was not in his usual superior class.

 

Most importantly, he rode pretty poorly in the Vuelta. Of course he still managed to finish second and put up a fight, mainly in the third week, but it was not the attacking Froome. Instead, he rode his own defensive race and was very fortunate that Alberto Contador, Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez failed to agree enough to give a significant time loss on one of his many days of suffering.

 

However, his performances in the 2015 are even more noteworthy. He managed to win the Vuelta a Andalucia against a below-par Alberto Contador but the rest of the first part of his season was a disaster. In the Volta a Catalunya, he was riding worse than he has ever done since he emerged as a grand tour contender and he failed to win the Tour de Romandie. He managed to win the Criterium du Dauphiné but he was not in the same superior class as he had been when he conquered the race for the first time in 2013.

 

It is hard not to be left with the impression that Froome is not at his 2013 level. Of course he still managed to win the Tour de France but it seems that he needs the perfect preparation to reach that excellent level that makes him the best grand tour rider in the world. For the Vuelta, he had not had that kind of build-up and this makes the race far more open.

 

The situation is not fully comparable to last year but it is not too different either. Back then, it was also a  race against time to be ready for the Spanish race after he had made a late change of schedule due to his Tour de France crash. However, this time the main issue is whether he still had the freshness to ride hard for three weeks while last year it was a matter of getting into condition in time after his injuries.

 

However, the main issue for Froome is still that he finds himself in untested territory. He hasn’t done a grand tour double since 2012 when his Vuelta ended as a pure suffer fest. Luckily things are a bit different this time around as he has not done the Olympics in between so he should definitely be fresher but it remains a big question whether he can keep his level for three weeks.

 

The concerns are only made bigger by the fact that he seems to lack a bit of recovery in the third week of a grand tour. In fact, he has only been able to maintain his level in the 2011 Vuelta and 2012 when he was riding as a domestique. During his two Tour de France wins, he has faded dramatically in the third week. While he was in a class of his own in the Pyrenean stages of both races, he was getting dropped by Quintana in the Alps.

 

This concern will of course only be bigger in the second grand tour of his season. He suffered from illness in the third week of the Tour which explains his remarkable drop of form but as it comes on the back of a similar performance in 2013, one can’t escape a concern about his ability to recover enough to win a second grand tour.

 

Nonetheless, we will still put Froome on top of our list of favourites. First of all, the course clearly favours riders who are on their limit in the third week. In the past few years, there has always been a big mountain stage on the penultimate day but this year there are no summit finishes after the second rest day. There are still two tough mountain stages with late category 1 climbs but they are not overly difficult. The biggest mountain stages all come in the middle part of the race where Froome has usually been able to maintain his level. Furthermore, the first week is tricky but doesn’t include any tough summit finishes. This will allow Froome to rediscover his racing legs after several weeks without competition. The big concern will be the traditional trio of big mountain stages in the penultimate weekend that has usually decided the race as they come at a time when fatigue is likely to have set in.

 

Secondly, there’s a long time trial in the Vuelta and unlike last year it is almost completely flat. Froome famously asked race director Javier Guillen for such a test after last year’s race against the clock and the race director immediately responded that a flat time trial in Burgos was already planned. Among the GC contenders, Froome is by far the best time triallist and he can really gain a significant amount on time on the likes of Nairo Quintana, Fabio Aru and especially Mikel Landa during 39 in the Burgos plains.

 

However, Froome still has to prove that he is still the time triallist he was in 2013 and 2014. In fact he has not done a decent TT since he won the Criterium du Dauphiné opener in 2014. Last year he rode a horrible TT in the Vuelta and this year he has backed it up with poor performances in the Tour de Romandie and Tour de France time trials. With virtually no time trialling in the Tour, it is no surprise that he has been fully focused on his climbing but it is still a mystery what has happened to the rider who nearly beat Tony Martin in the flat TT at the 2013 Tour and was on the podium on the flat course at the 2012 Olympics.

 

Despite those travails, it is hard to imagine that Froome won’t gain time on his key rivals in the stage 17 TT. In theory, this will allow him to ride a pretty defensive race in the mountains. That would be very unusual for him as he is usually very aggressive but this year he actually had that kind of mindset in the Tour. With the question of recovery looming as a danger, he will be keen to save as much energy as possible and ride conservatively.

 

On the other hand, he needs to gain time if fatigue really sets in in the third week. With questions over his ability to time trial and the TT coming in the third week, it is a bit of a gamble not to attack in the early mountains. It will be no surprise if he picks out one of the early mountain stages like he did in the Tour and then turns into defence for the rest of the race.

 

The Spanish climbs are very different from the ones that are found in the Tour de France. In general, they are shorter, steeper and less regular. On paper, one would think that this would be a disadvantage for Froome but that is not necessarily the case. In fact, Froome has done some of his most remarkable performances on short, very steep climbs. During last year’s highly inconsistent Vuelta, he had his best days on the steepest finishing climbs and so there is no reason to believe that he won’t be able to handle the very tough climbs at the end of stages 15 and 16. Furthermore, he is more explosive than the likes of Nairo Quintana and Mikel Landa and is let likely to be caught out in the many puncheur finales in the first week.

 

In the final week of the Tour, Froome relied heavily on his team. In this race, he will again have formidable teammates at his disposal as Sky is clearly the next best team behind Astana. Sergio Henao would be a podium contender in his own right and Mikel Nieve showed exceptional condition in the Tour de Pologne on climbs that didn’t really suit him. Geraint Thomas has confirmed that he can realistically go for the podium in grand tours even though it remains to be seen how he has recovered after a very long season that started in January and has included the classics. Nicolas Roche has been in the top 5 in this race and Ian Boswell has finally started to show his immense potential. Finally, Vasil Kiryienka is one of the most valuable domestiques in the world. That kind of climbing firepower will be extremely important in a race where Astana have three potential winners of the race. If they go crazy, Froome can’t respond to every attack and so he will have to rely on his team to keep him in contention.

 

Froome doesn’t have the same kind of firepower for the flat stages as he had in the Tour and that could be a challenge. The Vuelta usually has a crosswind stage at some point and there could be splits on the flat days. However, no team seems to bring very strong classics teams to this race and compared to the Astana and Movistar captains he has better support.

 

There is no doubt that Sky and Froome have done everything to make it possible for him to make history in three weeks and it seems that it will all come down to question of recovery. Will Froome be able to reach his high level for another three weeks of very mountainous racing? More importantly, will he be able to avoid his usual drop in form in the difficult penultimate weekend where the race will be decided? And can he finally return to his top level in the time trials?

 

Apart from Domenico Pozzovivo, all his main rivals already have a grand tour in their legs and Nairo Quintana, Vincenzo Nibali, Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde have all done the Tour like Froome. Hence, most of the GC contenders are on an equal footing and Valverde and Carlos Sastre have both proved that it is possible to be in podium contention in both grand tours. Of course it is a different matter to actually win the race but if anyone can do it, it has to be Froome.

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