The Vuelta a Espana may have a reputation as a revenge race for riders who missed out in the Tour de France but there won't be much redemption in the air ar this year's Spanish grand tour. Instead, the race has attracted a formidable line-up of grand tour stars who travel to Spain on the back of what has mostly been highly successful seasons. Giro champion Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) and local heroes Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) have attracted most pre-race interest but they will have to contend with exciting talents Sergio Henao (Sky), Carlos Betancur (Ag2r), Rigoberto Uran (Sky), Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) and Rafal Majka (Saxo-Tinkoff) and accomplished grand tour veterans Michele Scarponi (Lampre), Ivan Basso (Cannondale) and Samuel Sanchez (Euskaltel). Defending champion Alberto Contador and the best two riders from the Tour de France may be absent but apart from that Vuelta organizers Unipublic could hardly have imagined a stronger line-up for their race. CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses.
Last year's Vuelta a Espana evolved into a local battle between the three Spanish grand tour giants Alberto Contador, Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde but this year's race should have a much more international flavour. Valverde and Rodriguez are back after having impressed in the Tour de France but those two join Samuel Sanchez on the list as the only genuine Spanish winner candidates.
Italy's three grand tour winners Vincenzo Nibali, Ivan Basso and Michele Scarponi have all made the Vuelta a prime target and a host of exciting Colombian talents are ready to continue their recent domination. On a course that offers no less than 11 uphill finishes, such a bunch of climbers can only create a very exciting bike race and the race could very well shape up to be the closest of this year's grand tours.
CyclingQuotes.com has taken an in-depth look at the race's favourites, assigning 5 stars to the race's biggest favourite, 4 to his two biggest rivals, 3 to three other potential winners, 2 to four of the podium contenders and 1 to 5 of the race's minor outsiders. In this article, we take a look at the 1-star riders that may finish on the podium if everything goes their way.
Thibaut Pinot (*)
It was heart-breaking to witness Thibaut Pinot's collapse at the Tour de France. The public expectations were immense and all was set for a beautiful showing by the young Frenchman. He had made it safely through the feared first week without losing any time and was riding comfortably near the front on the first major mountain, Port de Pailheres, when Sky had exploded the peloton to pieces.
It all came to nothing on the subsequent descent. Due to a crash during his junior career, Pinot fears high speed and that was exactly what he had to deal with as the peloton was in full pursuit of Nairo Quintana down the mountain. He lost contact with the main favourites and lost all hopes of a top result.
Pinot was left depressed and never recovered mentally from seeing months of preparation fall apart. He abandoned a week later, citing a sore throat. He has now set his sights on the Vuelta and this could be the race that allows him to make amends.
This time there is no pressure on Pinot's vulnerable mind. Instead, he has plenty of chances to express his talents on a course that appears to be deigned to his characteristics as a climber. He hates the fight for position on the flat stages and will be happy to see that the race heads directly into the mountains, thus calming down the peloton right from the start.
Pinot's breakthrough performance was delivered at last year's Tour when he finished in the top 10 and won a stage in his first ever grand tour. Since then he has raised the bar even further by being one of the strongest climbers in the Volta a Catalunya, Tour de Romandie and Tour de Suisse. In the latter event, he was only surpassed by a superior Rui Costa and he has now matured to a point where he can be regarded as one of the stand-out climbers of the peloton - as his opening performances in the Tour suggested.
Pinot is a rider for the high mountains and the long climbs and will find the short, explosive finishes tricky. He hopes to limit his losses in those before shining in the Pyrenees and on Angliru. However, he has one major weakness. His time trial is not at the level of most of his competitors and despite the limited number of time trialing kilometres, it will be costly.
He has only raced once since the Tour when he finished 6th in the Tour de l'Ain. According to himself, that was better than expected and it suggests that he is ready for the Vuelta. In a race that suits him much better than the Tour, we could finally get the chance to see Pinot mix it up at the pointy end of a grand tour.
Rafal Majka (*)
There was no big excitement when Saxo-Tinkoff announced the signing of Rafal Majka in early 2011. The Pole hadn't put the world on fire during his amateur years and the expectations were modest. He didn't have a great first season but gave indications of his talents during the Vuelta.
He was set to lead his team in the 2012 Giro but missed the race due to injury. Instead, he lined up as a domestique for Alberto Contador in the Vuelta and that was when the world finally got to see what this strong Pole is capable of. Taking some immense turns on the front at the end of the mountain stages, he was one of the riders that made the peloton explode and set up Alberto Contador's attacks.
He finally got his own chance in this year's Giro and he delivered on his promises. He was involved in a close battle for the white jersey with Carlos Betancur and despite coming away without the coveted tunic, his 7th place was a very good result. In the Vuelta, he lines up as part of a four-pronged Saxo-Tinkoff attack on what is one of the strongest teams in the race.
He proved that he is up for the challenge in the Tour de Pologne when he finished 4th overall and won the points jersey in his big home race and the general impression was that only Sergio Henao was stronger than him in the mountains. That sets him well up for another good showing at the Vuelta.
With its 11 uphill finishes, the course suits him well. He is rather explosive and should deal with the short finishing climbs but his real stomping grounds are the high mountains. The Pyrenean stages appear to be perfectly suited to his characteristics. During the Giro, he had difficulties when the road got really steep, losing time on both Tre Cime Di Lavaredo and Jafferau, and that could pose a problem in a race that includes both the Angliru and the Hazallanas.
He is no great time triallist and only managed 31st in the long Giro time trial. On the other hand, he surprised the entire cycling world when he finished 10th in the Tour de Pologne time trial on a mostly flat course and this suggests that he has made great improvements in the feared discipline. As part of a strong Saxo-Tinkoff team, he has plenty of tactical options and we can expect to see Majka ride an aggressive race.
While his Giro performance was good, it also underlined that he still has some way to go to contend with the best. Betancur was superior in the mountains compared to his peer and so a podium spot is likely to be beyond Majka' capabilities. Nonetheless, a first grand tour as a GC rider often helps a rider improve and the Vuelta could be the race that reveals the true extent of Majka' potential in the biggest stage races.
Roman Kreuziger (*)
When Roman Kreuziger won the Tour de Suisse in 2008, great things was expected from the talented Czech. He went on to win the Tour de Romandie one year later but afterwards, his progress stalled. He never fulfilled the lofty expectations in the grand tours and Astana had probably expected more from the rider, they had hoped to see win a three-week race.
His decision to join Saxo-Tinkoff appeared to be a step down the rank from captain to super domestique but it may have been a wise one. Kreuziger has made a quantum leap forward this season. His early season wasn't impressive and only an outstanding ride in the Amstel Gold Race where he benefited from a weak Cannondale team, saved what was a modest performance in the spring.
He did a fine Tour de Suisse where he finished 3rd but few had expected him to be in podium contention at the Tour. Nonetheless, that was where he found himself after the Pyrenees and Kreuziger did a fantastic race throughout the three weeks. At the same time, he was the loyal domestique for team captain Contador and often had to pace his struggling leader on the climbs. Few will deny that Kreuziger had been the best Saxo-Tinkoff rider, had he been allowed to race for himself.
Originally claiming to ride the Vuelta to chase stage wins, the Czech has apparently changed his mind. Saxo-Tinkoff has put him into a leadership role on the team but Kreuziger himself refuses to be in that position. That puts his own ambitions for the race into a cloud of uncertainty.
We would, however, expect Kreuziger to give the GC a try. Whether he manages to stay fresh all the way to the end is highly questionable and we could very well see him fade during the third hard week of the race. On the other hand, the Tour proved that his top level has been increased and if he can find back those climbing legs, he will be a force to be reckoned with in the podium battle.
11 uphill finishes and extremely steep climbs may be a little bit too much for Kreuziger who would probably have preferred a more modest course. On the other hand he finished 5th in what is probably the hardest grand tour in recent years: the 2011 Giro d'Italia. Early in his career, the time trial was a main weapon for Kreuziger but his ability in the timed event has deteriorated dramatically. However, indications from the Tour were that he may be about to find back some of his previous strength and if that is confirmed, he may gain time on his rivals on stage 11.
It will be hard for Kreuziger to keep up the momentum all the way to the finish but his showing in the Tour de France was so impressive that he will be a strong podium candidate if he defies expectations.
Chris Horner (*)
It may be strange to point to a 41-year old veteran as a potential podium candidate in a grand tour. Nonetheless, Chris Horner cannot be underestimated as he prepares to return to the grand tours after an injury-plagued season.
Every season, pundits expect to see Horner on the decline but apparently the American just gets stronger and stronger. When he crashed out of the 2011 Tour de France and had to put an end to his 2011 season due to a blood clot in his lung, few expected him to bounce back strongly. Nonetheless, that was what he did when he returned to racing in the Tirreno-Adriatico, finishing 2nd in the WorldTour race.
The rest of his season was plagued by injury and illness and once again people started to believe that Horner was past his best. They were proved wrong when he climbed side-by-side with Chris Froome, Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali in Tirreno and only a bad time trial prevented him from finishing better than 6th.
A knee injury forced him to abandon the Volta a Catalunya and kept him away from competition for more than 4 months. He finally returned in the Tour of Utah a couple of weeks ago and impressed the entire cycling world when he won the queen stage and finished 2nd overall - despite not having raced a single race for almost half a year.
He will only have progressed since that showing and while most of rivals may pay a price for a hard racing schedule, that won't be the case for Horner who should get stronger as the race goes on. He has proved that his climbing level is on par with the best and as a former top 10 finisher in the Tour, he knows how to keep strong throughout a three-week race.
The mountainous route suits him well and the irregular, steep climbs are no hindrance for a rider who has won the Vuelta al Pais Vasco in similar terrain. He will lose a chunk of time in the time trial but will make up for some of his loss in the team time trial where he can rely on Fabian Cancellara. He is part of a strong Radioshack team that also includes Robert Kiserlovski, Haimar Zubeldia, Matthew Busche and Ben Hermans and shapes up as one of the teams with the most options.
Horner won't win this year's Vuelta but it would be a big mistake to count out a rider than just gets more and more impressive.
Bauke Mollema (*)
Bauke Mollema's progress as a GC rider appeared to have stalled when he failed to make an impression in numerous stage races last season. He crashed in the Tour and had hoped to make amends in the Vuelta but fell out of GC contention very early to ultimately finish a modest 28th.
While he continued to shine in the one-day races, he appeared to develop more into a classics rider than a grand tour contender. He proved those assessments wrong this summer when he won a stage and finished 2nd overall in the Tour de Suisse and went on to finish an impressive 6th at the Tour despite dealing with illness in the very tough final week.
He originally planned to use the Vuelta to prepare for the world championships which is perfectly suited to the Dutchman who has finished in the top 3 in all Ardennes classics and Il Lombardia. He has, however, been positively surprised by his sensations on the bike and has now decided to go for the GC in the Spanish grand tour.
That may not be a bad idea for the talented Dutchman. While he had already finished 12th in the 2010 Giro, it was the 2011 Vuelta that marked his breakthrough as a grand tour rider. The Dutchman rode an incredible race to finish 4th and win the points competition on a route that is very similar to this year's course.
As an Ardennes rider, Mollema is well-suited to short, explosive, steep climbs and in 2011 he even finished 4th on the excessively steep Valdepenas de Jaen ramp and 3rd on the climb to Pena Cabarga which are both back after a one-year absence. His 9th place on the stage to Angliru shows that he also handles longer, very steep ascents well.
In 2011, he lost the leader's jersey in the time trial but since then, he has improved a lot in the discipline. His standout performance came at the 2012 Vuelta al Pais Vasco when he finished 2nd on a very hilly course and he was even as the second-best GC rider in this year's flat Tour time trial. Hence, stage 11 should be an asset when it would previously have been a disadvantage for the Dutchman.
The main question surrounding Mollema is of course his huge racing burden. He targeted the Ardennes classics in April and had the Tour as his big season objective. He even raced the Clasica San Sebastian in between his grand tours and went all out to take 9th. Ultimately, it may all catch up with Mollema who could fade in the final week. He knows the risk but has decided to give at go, taking to the start with no pressure. His team knows that it cannot expect too much from its captain and so has put a heavy focus on Theo Bos' sprint train when selecting the roster.
As it was the case for Kreuziger, we expect Mollema to pay the price for a long season but his performances in the Tour prove that you cannot rule out the Belkin captain from the podium battle
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